Mercury

The good news is that both Pfizer and Moderna are working on a booster shot for the South African variant.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/05/how-the-different-covid-vaccines-will-handle-variants.html

7 hours ago, zdcatc12 said:

I am in the Pfizer trial. We started in July. I have not heard any evidence that the participants who got the actual vaccine then (I received the placebo) have started catching the virus because the vaccine became ineffective seven months later. We do weekly check-ins asking if we have had any symptoms, so they would know if those people started catching it.

 

They also put out today that the Pfizer vaccine is also effective against the new variants that are out there.

I wish this were true.

Unfortunately, the Pfizer vaccine is far less effective against the variant first identified in South Africa (now found in many other countries including America). 

https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/20210309/s-african-variant-challenges-pfizer-moderna-vaccines

Further, if it becomes mandatory to give proof of vaccination before boarding a ship, I doubt that the cruise lines will be specific about which vaccinations will be permitted. Eg, one person may have had the Pfizer vaccination and another the AstraZeneca (which has a lower efficacy). 

36 minutes ago, roger001 said:

The J&J is not intended to be the preventative vaccine that the 2 shot vaccines are.  J&J is just an additional quick tool to assist in preventing serious symptoms if you do get infected.  For the world population that can't get the other two, this is a better than nothing vaccine that would indeed help very much slowing down the spreading and hospitalizations.  I got my two shots of the other.  But if they had not been quickly available for me and my wife at our age, I would have been happy to have the J&J if it would keep us out of a  hospital stay, lying there alone,  slowly dying with a ventilator tube stuck down our throats.  

 

The J&J vaccine was 66% effective at preventing moderate to severe COVID-19, and 85% protective against the most serious symptoms, according to early results of the clinical trial that included 44,000 people in the United States, Latin America and South Africa, the AP reported.

And starting 28 days after receiving the vaccine, no one who got it required hospitalization or died.

Yes agree. Also, those who have had the Pfizer/Moderna vaccine can also transmit the virus although their viral load will be reduced.

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-covid-19-pfizer-vaccine-may-reduce-transmission

On 11/18/2020 at 3:43 PM, DCGuy64 said:

I'd say *might* be mandatory, rather than "will." Cruising in Europe and Asia is underway and they aren't requiring a vaccine, but that could change. Then again, the cruise industry depends on paying customers, and if mandatory vaccines turn too many away, they might rethink it. Lastly, how would this be policed? Who would determine what constitutes proof of a vaccination? Could someone fraudulently obtain a certificate showing one had been vaccinated? Will the cruise lines administer vaccinations as a condition of boarding? Lots of unanswered questions about how this would play out, in my opinion.

Qantas is already stating that they will require proof of vaccine for international travel. So this could become the "norm" in future...

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/qantas-other-airlines-covid-19-vaccine-proof-1.5813866

17 hours ago, wdsted said:

Unfortunately, this is exactly the problem with resuming cruises.  Until a vaccine is available and required of all passengers, cruising ain’t gonna happen.

Right at the beginning of this pandemic, I said on these boards that before a vaccine is available and required, I won't be cruising.

The year is almost over and I still hold that view. Unfortunately, cruising won't bear any semblance of the amazing experience it was until vaccine requirements are in place. 

It is so sad, but I am truly grateful for all the wonderful memories I hold of all my cruises. I think that when I am able to step onto a ship again, it will be with even more joy and gratitude!

25 minutes ago, ukbecky said:

 

 

Because it bears repeating.

 

Most people are fixating on the number of cases. The point is the number of deaths - a known concrete number.  I posted this to make people aware of the number of deaths from Covid-19 on cruises. Which is 65 total for 259 ships carrying tens of thousands of passengers and crew, over quite a few weeks. The Diamond Princess was quarantined on February 4th, so all lines were aware of the danger, and taking action, from at least that date.

 

Many people, on many ships, got sick - and many people got better. We will never know how many. But we DO know how many died.

 

No one ever said that people did not get sick, or that few people got sick. People get sick all the time on ships. Who has ever cruised with a guarantee against getting sick? It's not even rare, especially in the winter months. I got the flu on a cruise 2 years ago, despite my yearly flu shot, and it was pretty awful.

 

The numbers of DEATHS do not lie. So, no, I don't think I am "kidding myself", or that cruising(or any travel) is life-threatening for the average person.

I'm afraid the figures DO lie. And the number of deaths is NOT a "known concrete number".

This article from the Financial Times on 26 April refers...

Global coronavirus death toll could be 60% higher than reported:

https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c

Also, as pcakes122 has posted above, the cruise lines did not require passengers to report to them if they had contracted the virus. Thus, the figures on cruise ships are under-reported: both on the number of people who contracted the virus and those that then went on to die from it.

8 hours ago, pcakes122 said:

You are kidding yourself because you don't fully understand what you're looking at.

 

NCL was required to report to the CDC any KNOWN cases of Covid-19. That would be people who were diagnosed upon disembarkation AND advised NCL that they were. I would venture to say that the small NCL numbers were people who were hospitalized, and the hospital notified NCL who then notified the CDC.

 

I was on the last sailing of the NCL Bliss (March 8th), and I tested positive for Covid-19 when I got home. I had symptoms on the ship, but I wasn't fully aware of what Covid symptoms were (at that time the publicized symptoms were dry cough, high fever and shortness of breath - none of which I had.) I returned home on March 15th and on March 16th I received an email from NCL advising me that someone on the prior sailing had tested positive for the disease. At that point, because I did have respiratory symptoms (productive cough, runny nose, fatigue, etc.), I was able to get a test and tested positive. I DID NOT advise NCL of these results, nor did they request in the email that I get tested and let them know the results. 

 

I am certain that there are many, many more people who have a similar story as mine - and our confirmed cases are NOT included in what you are reading in the Miami Herald.

 

It is VERY dangerous to use these numbers as a way to gauge how risky it is to cruise during this pandemic.

 

I thought I was going to be just fine on my cruise. I brought my own disinfectant and I wiped down door knobs, remote controls and even the slot machines I played in the casino!  I was staying in the Haven and I had all my meals there (most in my cabin.) I never went to the Atrium, the buffet, specialty or main dining rooms, theater, pool or any other common venues. I had a very naive sense of safety because I thought I was taking all the right precautions. I was one of those people who just thought it wasn't going to happen to me (especially with my diligence and precautions!)

 

By the way, NCL took my temperature upon embarkation and disembarkation and I had no fever. As a matter of fact, I never had a fever throughout the course of the disease.

 

I love to cruise and I will cruise again. However, I will not cruise until this disease is completely under control, whenever that is.

 

Also, this is not your normal flu. I am still sick after all of these weeks. I am one of the lucky ones who was able to tough it out at home, but that doesn't mean it's been an easy road. This has been the most frightening disease I have ever experienced. Trust me when I tell you you do not want to find out first hand!

Thank-you for your very informative post. 

You raise some important points:

1)Despite all the extra precautions both you and NCL took, you still got the virus.

2) The cruise lines did not advise the CDC of cases such as yours because you were not required to tell them. So there are many many more cruise passengers who picked up Covid 19 on board and the "official" figures are thus totally under reported.

3) Taking of temperature is no guarantee that a person does not have Covid-19

13 hours ago, warburg said:

I've booked a cruise on the Bliss, with my sister for February 2021. Since we have no vaccines for so many serious diseases, including bubonic plague, rare but it still pops up, I'll take my chances. There is also no vaccine for pandemic economic suicide, a contagion making its debut now. By February 2021, hopefully NCL will be sailing again. The Bliss is not a small ship,  and we want to know what recovery will look like.  Final payment is in October, so there is plenty of time

No other serious diseases in our lifetime have caused borders to be closed worldwide.

These are unprecedented times.

The cruise lines will not be able to be profitable without a vaccine. They had no problem operating during SARS/MERS so the difference is clear.

I will only cruise again once there is a vaccine available and when proof of the vaccine is required for all on board - both crew and passengers. Too many people have been caught unable to disembark as a result of a Covid 19 outbreak on a ship. If only (say) 40% of passengers are vaccinated, there could still be an outbreak onboard. The vaccine is for the safety of all.

I just don't think the cruise lines are going to be profitable sailing at 50% capacity so that social distancing can take place. They need the numbers on board and they will only get that once a vaccine is available.

1 hour ago, Corliss said:

Second, as I posted yesterday, "The world will be dealing with covid for years."

 

But, it will not remain shut for years.  Governments plan to expand testing and do contact surveillance and isolation for breakouts.  Creating economic catastrophe with extended shutdowns  is not a feasible strategy.

Exactly - we need to be able to ease the shutdowns. And even if everyone was shutdown till May 9 in New York, I still don't believe there would be ZERO deaths.

6 hours ago, Corliss said:

 

As I mentioned in a previous post those projections both for individual states and for the US overall have been repeatedly reduced both in total numbers of expected deaths and in the time lines for reaching "peak deaths" which  have been repeatedly shortened.  And this has happened with whatever level of social distancing we are currently experiencing.

 

I live in California.  The model now projects California reaching ZERO deaths by May 15.....this is much sooner than the projection from just a week ago.

 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/california

 

The IMHE model expects New York to reach ZERO deaths by May 9th.

 

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/new-york

 

 

The worrisome thing is that you actually believe this.

The CDC has a totally different view:

https://www.uppermichiganssource.com/content/news/CDC-predicts-another-coronavirus-battle-in-the-winter-569668081.html

Why would anyone be working on a vaccine if the models you quote are correct? 

5 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

I don't think waiting until a vaccine is available or until somehow the virus slips into the background and ceases to be  a major health threat before cruising again is "doom and gloom". It's simple common sense. 

 

I love cruising but I'll be damned if I'm going to risk my well being and the well being of my fellow cruise passengers (after all I could be the person who unknowingly brings the infection on board) just to take a cruise vacation.

I agree with you 100%

Common sense is not doom and gloom.

59 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

 Cruises to nowhere have been illegal for several years so they can't run them either.

 Precisely!😜 

6 minutes ago, Corliss said:

There will undoubtedly be a segment of the population that will avoid baseball games, cruises (all travel) etc. for a while.  But, as the post I quoted made clear, the head of the Coronavirus Task Force (Vice President Pence) and the cruise lines are planning for a Summer cruising season.  That is the "reality." 

Where will any ship be able to cruise to? Perhaps a cruise for 3 days to nowhere?

There are still ships with passengers on board:

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/tourism-cruises/article241929131.html

The cruise lines are still trying to repatriate crew amid this crisis. 

I'm glad that you put "reality" in inverted commas. 

Great that NCL is helping the crew with repatriation - thanks for that TrumpyNor

4 minutes ago, ray98 said:

 

No....two completely different environments.

 

https://www.swzmaritime.nl/news/2020/02/20/hvac-not-likely-to-play-role-in-coronavirus-spread-on-cruise-ship/?gdpr=deny

Thanks but I have seen that article and it doesn't answer my question but this CNN article is very informative:

Thanks so much chengkp75 for your very informative post.

At least if the crew is not able to get home they at least get paid something. I really do feel for them. 

So many people struggling through this pandemic.

15 minutes ago, ray98 said:

 

HVAC = Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning 

Yes, but are ships required to use HEPA filters as modern planes do?

1 hour ago, chengkp75 said:

In addition to the estimated 80,000 cruise ship crew on ships in or near the US, there are the 1.6 million merchant mariners currently on ships. These mariners represent about 100,000 crew changes per month, all year long, and just like the cruise ship crews, they are basically stuck on their ships for the indefinite future.  Many ports around the world will not allow crew changes, many countries will not allow flights to/from the crews' home countries, and in the US, now cruise ship crew need to be on charter aircraft paid for by the cruise line to get permission to land crew for repatriation.  While the shutdown of the cruise industry will have a profound effect on tourism in many places, an extended shutdown of crew changes on the 54,000 merchant ships around the world will stifle the 80% of the world's trade that travels by sea, as the onboard crew reach their statutory work limit (11 months), and ships stop due to lack of crew.

Thank-you for your post. You raise some interesting points with regards to the crew on cruise ships:

1) Most cruise ship crew are stuck on their ships for the indefinite future.

As many of the crew are paid via the tips passengers are required to pay as part of their cruise fare, I wonder how the crew are now being remunerated?

2) What will happen to crew who have reached the statutory work limit and cannot get home? I think on cruise ships, many crew sign up for 7 month contracts so it is even less than the Merchant ship limit of 11 months.

Will they just stay on the ship and not get any pay?

I can imagine this is a dilemma for both the crew and cruise lines.

Modern planes use HEPA filters not HVAC.

 Here is an article that explains this:

https://www.iata.org/contentassets/f1163430bba94512a583eb6d6b24aa56/cabin-air-quality.pdf

Per Q3 of the FAQ's:

So, in a nutshell, the air quality on a plane is better than on a ship - happy for anyone with more knowledge on this to assist?

When I look back on my cruises, I always remember crew members who stood out and made the cruise even more special.

I think now of all the ships that are unable to sail and I am wondering what has happened to all the crew members? Obviously there will be some essential staff who are required to be on board but what about the staff like the Waiters, Cabin attendants, Shore excursion staff, Entertainment staff etc?

Have they all been able to go home to their families?

Anyone who thinks any ship will cruise in May/ June 2020 is delusional.

Without a vaccine cruising is just not safe. Covid19 just needs one host on a ship and as we all know, it spreads like wildfire.

Anyway, they are still trying to evacuate over 6000 people on cruises currently. These passengers are going to struggle to get back home - it is a struggle to get any port to allow passengers to disembark.

Never mind cruising, we need life to return to some semblance of normalcy. Just being out of lockdown will be a blessing but even that looks far off.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/08/lockdowns-cant-end-until-covid-19-vaccine-found-study-says

Only when a vaccine is available. And only when cruise ships require that everyone who wants to board the ship presents their vaccination certificate.

Otherwise I would worry that there is another outbreak on the ship and it gets quarantined off the coast of some country who won't allow anyone off. Alternatively, it doesn't help if vaccinated passengers are allowed off as you may end up in a country other than where you have tickets to fly home from. Not worth the stress.

Just can't risk that - would not enjoy my vacation.

So sad - after many cruises in the last 20 years it's going to be a long time till things return to normal.

Thanks, I thought as much and I agree with you. It's just not worth the risk to me.