Booking directly with RCL or TA, am I missing anything?

[selma]

Wondering if I'm missing something or have got all my ducks in a row.

 

I've got a 2014 cruise booked directly with RCL, in a euro price. I know working with a TA can be interesting given possible offered OBC. So I also did that comparing. Or beter said; I compared quotes from various US-based TA's. Unfortunately national TA's well........ no thanks. Either same rate or more, no perks but much more strict rules etc.

 

However, seems like the currency rate might make the decision for me? The current rate RCL is using between their $ and € price is good. Better even than the actual rate at the moment. As in; the favour of us euro-users. The current actual currency rate is already pretty good given history. Historically most of the year it will be less favourable. At the moment actual is 1.30 , RCL works with 1.316. Having done yearly trips to the US since 07, I know more common is to float around 1.25 but also have seen 1.20 or worse sometimes.

 

Not hugely surprising most quotes I've gotten from TA's copy RCL's price in $ but unlike RCL offer some OBC. Best offers are around $300,-. I hate "spilling" "free" money like an OBC but given the historical currency rate it seems to be smarter to just have the price locked in on € to use that favorable currency rate RCL is now offering and not risking ending up going with a TA and book in $ but running a real risk of paying more because of the currency rate likely becoming less in my favor when making a payment later on. On the fare $300,- doesn't seem that much to suck up fluctuations in rates and still keep a left over OBC to make it worth going through a TA.

 

Is there anything I'm missing in the whole picture or am I coming to the right conclusion that I (obviously a personal choice) think the $300,- is too little to risk a much likely lower currency rate come 2014? Perhaps any experiences from others that run into the same dilemma of booking in own currency versus dollar?