Oct 31, 2007 Tropical Storm

Has anyone gotten any updates on the Tropical Storm that is lurking in the caribbean? Just wondering if it is going to effect or cruise.

Muriel

Has anyone gotten any updates on the Tropical Storm that is lurking in the caribbean? Just wondering if it is going to effect or cruise.

 

Muriel

Yes, I've got updates and will continue to follow Noel's track. Right now it looks as if QM2 and the storm may pass by each other as the one moves south and the other north. Unless there is some incredible job to the northeast I don't think it will be a serious concern.

Remember, of course, this is weather we're talking about, and so anything is possible.

I always find it most interesting to read the "Discussion" on the NHC pages. Over the years, I have sort of "gotten to know" some of the NHC forecasters' style. (they sign their discussions with their names)

Here is the most recent (well, part of it)

from forecasters Knabb and Mainelli.

NOEL HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE COMPLEX

TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA. A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM EMERGED NORTH

OF THE ISLAND A FEW HOURS AGO...AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A

LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS REFORMING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF

HAITI. UNTIL THE NEXT AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INVESTIGATES

THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOCATION...FORWARD MOTION...AND EVEN

THE EXISTENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAIN RATHER UNCERTAIN.

 

OUR BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR

335/10...WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH

AND EAST OF THE CYCLONE. NEARLY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS

FORECAST A SURFACE LOW TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED SOMEWHERE OVER THE

BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...

Of course, at this point, it is anything goes.

My hope is that the Low to mid level ridge north and east will keep the storm somewhat west of our path until we are safely by it. Then when it turns North to Northeast finally, and heads out to sea, we will be in the Southern Caribbean, safe beyond its reach. When it is time to come back northward, Noel will have spun itself out in the colder waters of the Northern Atlantic. Of course, the fact that it was in the 80s as recently as last week in the Northeast, and will be 68 in New York City when we leave on Wednesday does present a scenario where the storm could make its way further northward while still exhibiting strength and a solid formation with a distinct eye and plenty of eye-wall replacement cycling. Warm water is required for the constant cycling and upward motion that makes for a stronger hurricane. Colder water does not let it achieve the heights and it soon becomes disorganized with no distinct eye.

I have cruised when there was a hurricane abouts (Isabel, which came ashore around the center of the US East Coast) We merely altered our course a bit, and were fine. Meanwhile the Central East Coast was devastated, with breaches in the barrier peninsula in the Chesapeake. Flooding and power losses were dramatic, and the terrain was altered forever. We had a marvelous time, and one would never know we had been anywhere near a hurricane.

I am telling myself all of this, as I hope that Cunard does not become overly cautious and take us somewhere like Montreal and Halifax instead of the Caribbean! (Don't laugh, It has happened!) Although I would love to visit Halifax again, and would adore seeing Montreal, which I have not seen since I was a wee little one, I will have to buy a new wardrobe or stay on the ship! I am not bringing cold weather clothes! I have enough to pack with formals and bathing suits and snorkel gear! (I always bring my own. I am hard to fit for a mask)

Besides, stirring up the waters just a little bit will make for a more fun ride I think! QM2 is SO stable that I don't even need to recover my land legs when I get off her! I've done short trips on lesser ships that had me bouncing back and forth for days when I was back on land. But 13 days on QM2, and I felt no difference at all! If one does not sit on 2 deck and watch the waters close to the ship, waves rushing towards and away from the ship, crashing together, one could be just as well in one's living room (Well, with better service and nicer decor, plus a lot of visitors!)

Still packing!

Karie

The BBC are reporting a statement from one "Angel" that this is the first Noel. There are as yet unconfirmed rumours, originating from impoverished recumbent middle-eastern sheep tenders, that this development is connected with unexpected drama within the Israeli royal family.

I'll keep you posted.

The BBC are reporting a statement from one "Angel" that this is the first Noel. There are as yet unconfirmed rumours, originating from impoverished recumbent middle-eastern sheep tenders, that this development is connected with unexpected drama within the Israeli royal family.

 

I'll keep you posted.

Does this have anything to do with your recipe for shepherd's pie?

On a more serious note, QM2's speed will work in her favor. 10-12 years ago, I took a short cruise to Bermuda right after Labor Day, height of hurricane season. Hurricane Eduardo ran up the coast between Bermuda and the US. QE2 was late getting into NYC from her TA, so people got off late and we got on late. Some ships had diverted their itinerary to Canada. One ship (Zenith) went on its normal route to Bermuda and took a heavy wave that dented the bow and set stuff flying off all sorts of surfaces (a piano off a stage and all the bottles of the shelves in the duty free).

We left at 11:59 (I suspect overnight port fees kick in at midnight) instead of 5 or 6 P.M. We went VERY fast and it was rough. But we made it to Bermuda ON TIME. The Captain never missed an opportunity to remind us that, because of her speed, QE2 made her scheduled port at her scheduled time, the only ship to do so. All the others arrived in Bermuda late or went elsewhere.

I don't think you're likely to have a route change because QM2 can wait out some of the weather and make up time. (But I'm not promising anyting. ;) )

Kathy

Here is the latest from the NHC

THE CENTER OF NOEL EMERGED OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF HAITI

EARLIER TODAY...HAS SINCE BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT

325/13...AND IS NOW JUST NORTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA. THE

CIRCULATION CENTER WAS TOO CLOSE TO LAND FOR THE AIR FORCE

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO FLY DIRECTLY THROUGH THE CENTER...BUT

FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND SURFACE PRESSURE ESTIMATES ARE CONSISTENT

WITH A POSITION ESTIMATED FROM VISIBLE IMAGERY. MAXIMUM

FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 46 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 37 KT AT THE

SURFACE...WHILE SFMR ESTIMATES PEAKED A LITTLE HIGHER NEAR 50 KT.

THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 45 KT AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN

THESE ESTIMATES. THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED AND THE

STORM HAS A VERY SPRAWLING APPEARANCE...BUT PLENTY OF RAINBANDS

EXTEND WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...CONTINUING TO BRING HEAVY

RAINS TO HISPANIOLA.

 

THE MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON THE TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND HAVE

GENERALLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT. DURING THE FIRST 48

HOURS...THE GFDL REMAINS THE EASTERN OUTLIER BUT HAS COME INTO

BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHERS...WHILE THE GFS PROVIDES THE

WESTERNMOST TRACK. DURING THIS PERIOD NOEL SHOULD CONTINUE

GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL

RIDGE. THEREAFTER...NOEL SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWARD AND

EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE

SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON HOW SOON THIS TURN

WILL MATERIALIZE AND HOW FAST NOEL WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA...PERHAPS

DUE TO VARIATIONS IN THE PREDICTED VERTICAL DEPTH OF THE SYSTEM.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE

GUIDANCE...WHICH IS A WESTWARD SHIFT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

Looking at the predicted track of the storm and the route of the ship:

We have plenty of options and room to move around.

Karie

I hope your sailing will go well for all of you, even though I am horribly jealous that we will not be on QM2 until next fall. If you can, please post from onboard and let us know how it goes, including with the weather!

Last year, I did a cruise on Diamond Princess while a hurricane was going on, although on the Mexican Riviera instead of in the Caribbean. We were also the only ship to make all our ports on time that week, and the captain (whose name escapes me, but he was a very nice, very short British man with a gorgeous wife) was quite proud of that. He also told us how a ship from another cruise line (I can't remember which one--I want to say Holland America but I think that's wrong) had tried to anchor in Cabo San Lucas pointed the wrong way for the wind, and eventually gave up and sailed off...then another Princess ship came and anchored properly in her place and began tendering passengers without a problem. Of course, I've also been on a Princess ship that missed two ports in the British Isles due to rough weather (one was Holyhead, where it was too rough to tender; the other was Kirkwall, because the captain didn't want to take us through more of the rough weather in order to get there in time for our port call), so you just never know. The British Isles cruise was with Captain "Crash" Nash, who bonked a brand-new Princess ship into a pier in Victoria, British Columbia in high winds, and the ship then had to be towed back to Seattle because they thought they might have bent a prop and the water was too rough and murky to be able to examine the ship properly. I think Nash learned his lesson after that and was not about to take another ship into a rough situation.

The BBC are reporting a statement from one "Angel" that this is the first Noel. There are as yet unconfirmed rumours, originating from impoverished recumbent middle-eastern sheep tenders, that this development is connected with unexpected drama within the Israeli royal family.

 

I'll keep you posted.

Further to earlier reports, apparently there is no room at the Inn, be it Holiday or otherwise. Global markets are also reporting futures on gold, frankincense, and myrrh have skyrocketed.

Further to earlier reports, apparently there is no room at the Inn, be it Holiday or otherwise. Global markets are also reporting futures on gold, frankincense, and myrrh have skyrocketed.

A bright star has been sighted in the Eastern sky!

I'll leave a light on for you, hear?

originating from impoverished recumbent middle-eastern sheep tenders,

An entirely predictable obsession with matters ovine from one located in the heart of the Black Watch recruiting area.

J

Besides, stirring up the waters just a little bit will make for a more fun ride I think! QM2 is SO stable that I don't even need to recover my land legs when I get off her! Karie

Further to earlier reports, apparently there is no room at the Inn, be it Holiday or otherwise. Global markets are also reporting futures on gold, frankincense, and myrrh have skyrocketed.

No room at the Inn to weather the storm? - No worries - Karie seems to think that the QM2 is stable enough!

(Sorry...)

No room at the Inn to weather the storm? - No worries - Karie seems to think that the QM2 is stable enough!

 

(Sorry...)

Well, if it isn't

What a way to go, eh?

Here's an interesting site if you want to look forward a few days and see what the wave conditions will be heading south....it's an unclassified government site...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/ww3_cgi/cgi-bin/ww3_all.cgi?color=b&type=prod&area=natl&prod=sig_wav_ht

Cheers, Penny

Penny’s Affair to Remember QM2 Review

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=471053

November 10,2007...the “Affair” continues....

Here's an interesting site if you want to look forward a few days and see what the wave conditions will be heading south....it's an unclassified government site...

 

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/ww3_cgi/cgi-bin/ww3_all.cgi?color=b&type=prod&area=natl&prod=sig_wav_ht

 

Cheers, Penny

Penny’s Affair to Remember QM2 Review

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=471053

 

November 10,2007...the “Affair” continues....

Thanks for posting this link.

I am telling myself all of this, as I hope that Cunard does not become overly cautious and take us somewhere like Montreal and Halifax instead of the Caribbean!

By the looks of the wave forecast, I don't think Cunard would consider a Canada/New England cruise instead. And BTW, the QM2 can't make it to Montreal. Quebec City is as far up the St Lawrence as she can go.

Alan

Thanks for posting this link.

 

 

 

By the looks of the wave forecast, I don't think Cunard would consider a Canada/New England cruise instead. And BTW, the QM2 can't make it to Montreal. Quebec City is as far up the St Lawrence as she can go.

 

Alan

Yes, the worst of the storm may be up north, rather than down south! So Noel and QM2 will just pass in the night, or day, or both. :)

Yes, the worst of the storm may be up north, rather than down south! So Noel and QM2 will just pass in the night, or day, or both. :)

For Charity (honestly, Mod!!)

The BBC have apologised, and withdrawn their story about the first Noel.

They have also dismissed suggestions that there should be no L in Llandudno, citing several Welsh sources as well as one the public could take seriously.

Meanwhile, investigations continue into the veracity or otherwise of another story concerning extravagant spending at the BBC Christmas party where, it is alleged, senior executives were conveyed to the festivities in a 3-horse enclosed sleigh. The explanation offered by the embattled BBC CEO, James Mywifeknowstheprimeminister, that "it was just like the one he used to know" have been greeted with anger in some sources, mainly bread and brandy.

This just in. Exuberant and well-behaved religious males found eating heart and dover sole with Joyce.

Later on tonight: small Israeli hamlets: are they still lying?

Please pledge donations to Children in Need (in UK; equivalent in USA please) to a total of £20 ($1,657,344) between you or this will continue.

xxxxxx

For Charity (honestly, Mod!!)

 

The BBC have apologised, and withdrawn their story about the first Noel.

They have also dismissed suggestions that there should be no L in Llandudno, citing several Welsh sources as well as one the public could take seriously.

 

Meanwhile, investigations continue into the veracity or otherwise of another story concerning extravagant spending at the BBC Christmas party where, it is alleged, senior executives were conveyed to the festivities in a 3-horse enclosed sleigh. The explanation offered by the embattled BBC CEO, James Mywifeknowstheprimeminister, that "it was just like the one he used to know" have been greeted with anger in some sources, mainly bread and brandy.

 

This just in. Exuberant and well-behaved religious males found eating heart and dover sole with Joyce.

 

Later on tonight: small Israeli hamlets: are they still lying?

 

 

Please pledge donations to Children in Need (in UK; equivalent in USA please) to a total of £20 ($1,657,344) between you or this will continue.

 

 

xxxxxx

Sometimes I really, really, wish I knew what on earth you were talking about, but someone stole my Scot/Happyscot--American English dictionary.

Sometimes I really, really, wish I knew what on earth you were talking about, but someone stole my Scot/Happyscot--American English dictionary.

He's pillaging Christmas Carols.

Or Balderizing them. (I think that's the right term)

Started with the First Noel, and went on from there--

Actually, HS, I'm not sure all would agree on "Israeli village" I understand there is some dispute over that!

Some local border arguments, I believe.

Nothing that should concern any of us, really, being so far away and all!

(Why, yes, mod, this is called UNDERSTATEMENT and is not meant as an insult to any particular side!)

We went VERY fast and it was rough. But we made it to Bermuda ON TIME. The Captain never missed an opportunity to remind us that, because of her speed, QE2 made her scheduled port at her scheduled time, the only ship to do so. All the others arrived in Bermuda late or went elsewhere.

 

That's our girl!

That's our girl!

You bet! On any other ship, I'd probably have been frightened. We were pitching a lot during the first night. I was on 4-deck, and I could hear the engine 'flare' each time the props cleared the water and the resistance decreased.

Kathy

Sometimes I really, really, wish I knew what on earth you were talking about....

Don't worry about it. He wishes the same :D

Jimmy

Don't worry about it. He wishes the same :D

 

Jimmy

:p I've got some news for him, too. I checked the list of Atlantic storms and this storm is actually Noel, as in Coward, rather than Noel, as in Christmas.

So now HS will have to come up with another line of jokes!