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Everything posted by EscapeFromConnecticut

  1. Yes, long-term price increases have looked pretty much inevitable since this whole mess started. Fain, Donald and del Rio have burned through a ton of cash in 11 months. Far worse, the cruise lines each borrowed billions & billions more. Regardless of whether those were wise & necessary decisions, that's all debt needing to be repaid - and when you dig down, the cruise lines have only their customers as a cash source. With scrappers busily dismantling a virtual fleet of cruise ships right now, supply is going to be way down. Particularly for the bargain cruises - because it's the old ship serving secondary and tertiary markets that got beached.
  2. Indeed. Way too many people are still deluding themselves with the idea that a return to 2019 living is just around the corner.
  3. Absolutely. People who are still wondering if their spring cruises will sail are - once again - ignoring the obvious evidence about where we are & where we're going.
  4. Just like it's been since last year, there is evidence out there to guide projections on when cruising can start again. The facts simply aren't favorable right now. Coachella, Glastonbury and Stagecoach all canceled for 2021. Boris Johnson says it's too early to talk about when Great Britain will lift its lockdown restrictions (which are far tougher than what's in the U.S.). No INFORMED executives are seriously talking about reopening plans ... that's simply not the reality of February 2021, or the remainder of winter and spring. Summer '21? Doesn't look promising. Fall '21 ... looks bleak but not entirely written off. wouldn't put money or expectations on it, but it's not entirely unrealistic to hope that very limited cruising could be tried. We're talking extensive protocols and precautions, few ships & even fewer ports ... so forget any illusion of 2019-style cruising.
  5. Have you choice. But be an adult & face the consequences of your choice. no vaccine? A whole lot of employers will fire you ... or not hire you. A whole lot of countries may not let you enter. Cruise ships may refuse your booking. your choice ... but also your self-inflicted consequences.
  6. You posses no "right" to cruise ... or go to Disney, fly in a commercial jet, eat in a restaurant, hold a job or attend a public school. Choose to ignore public health directives, regulations or laws, and you sacrifice those privileges? OK, that is your choice - live with the consequences. Honestly, Fox has done more to curdle America's common sense than heroin ever could. If I conclude I don't like red lights and am entitled to "freedom of choice" about stopping, I can expect the traffic court judge to quickly straighten out my thinking. After paying a fine, I then have to make a decision about driving: either play by the rules or buy a skateboard. "Fairness" and "my rights" got nothing to do with it.
  7. That's a sad projection - but there's no denying the evidence is all leaning that way right now. Without question, a lot of CC members have simply got to dig themselves out of the phony "oh, it'll all be good again in a couple of months" delusion. That phony, evidence-denying "optimism" has been wrong month after month ever since last February. It's sad to think about how many people have lost jobs - or at least lost hours & benefits - while having lots of money tied up with cruise lines. Money that's pretty much now a casino bet: - IF the cruise line survives and - IF it doesn't use a bankruptcy filing to nullify my OBC and perhaps the FCC as well and - IF it doesn't simply increase prices to offset the value of my OBC and FCC and - IF cruising resumes with few enough restrictions that I can enjoy it and - IF I'm young/healthy enough to still have fun cruising by that time and - IF the destinations I want to see are accepting cruisers ... .... well then, hooray, I get six hundred dollars free!! But if any of those conditions go south, I lose. Perhaps I lose many times that much. Never looked like an appealing bet. That's why some of us on CC consistently counseled "take the refund"
  8. This is the best post of the week! Seems simple: you initially believed one thing, then you saw contradictory facts, then you changed your view based on those facts. Cheers to you, LHARTWICK. That's the way mainstream thinking in the country used to work: logic and intelligence, with a dose of humility so we'd acknowledge if we were wrong & then change course. But it's so very, very rare now. And that's why after 400,000 deaths and a GLOBAL pandemic, we still see "patriots" sneering at Fauci, refusing masks and proudly insisting "it's all a hoax." Which, my friends, is part of why the resumption of cruising will remain delayed. The U.S. has one of the worst COVID records in the world & thus zero hope of cruising in the first half of 2021.
  9. The facts have been extremely clear since early March & they haven't changed: Ships are staying anchored until this virus is on the run. The "just think positive" crowd has been making inaccurate and unfounded predictions about the resumption of cruising all along ... based every time on unexplained "optimism" and in complete denial of the science and data across the globe. They've been proven wrong every time. Every. Time. Anyone looking for cruising in the spring is simply ignoring truth.
  10. That seems utterly reasonable. None of us should build big expectations for this year ... but if the vaccine rollout improves & the mutations don't worsen & the vaccine proves effective in the real world, there's at least a logical path to the idea of cruising by October. Zero guarantee, but at least the hope is grounded in reality. Let's look for an end to the phony 'no masks, no distancing' childishness ... and keep a good thought for some degree of normalcy by Halloween.
  11. Indeed, the notion of April cruises is merely more fool's gold. CCL's announcements have been a trailing indicator all along ... if you want to see what's ahead, pay close attention to daily infection and hospitalization rates as well as death tolls. Cruise ships have zero chance of sailing any time close to months when those numbers are grim ... right now they're horrible and getting worse. And nobody in the world of real science expects improvement in the near future. For CC members tired of disappointment after disappointment - why not stop continuing the cycle? Follow the science instead of baseless "optimism." We WILL cruise again - but no time soon.
  12. "Optimism" in the face of contradictory facts is absolutely denial ... a temporary & phony victory of magical thinking over logic & truth. "staying positive" is what led people to book & rebook & rebook, each time hoping the virus would conveniently vanish or the CDC would abruptly stop doing its job. And like clockwork, they'd be back here a couple of months later with laments, handwringing ... and certainty that "this time will be different." Charlie Brown making the same foolish run at the ball again... and again ... and again... isn't "staying positive." And such foolishness is no virtue or strength; just the opposite, it reveals an inability to cope with what IS. CCL will remain sidelined as long as the virus rages unchecked. (Same with social distancing, mandatory masks, restrictions/shutdowns and all of that). The only sane path is for the "pretend it will all magically vanish" crew to man up & get real. Yes, we will cruise again some day - but not this spring, probably not this summer, and very possibly not for the rest of '21 unless the "liberty patriots" stop driving the infection rates higher
  13. Actually, denial is all about ignoring truth ... and unfortunately, a frightful number of cruise fans have been doing that consistently since March. They keep substituting what they'd like to be true for what actually is true. But no amount of "optimism," magical thinking or "positive" attitudes will change the virus ... or the chokehold it has on cruising. Until the globe gets a solid handle on COVID, there won't be mass market cruising like people have been used to. That's not because of negativity, the CDC, some shadowy anti-cruise conspiracy, bias among scientists or any of the other phony straw men that keep getting blamed on CC. The virus IS a killer, it IS worsening globally, and cruising IS an going to stay shutdown because it's an insanely dangerous health risk right now. And all of that IS beyond the power of humans to change. On the positive side, there's hope that science will get it under control in late '21 or '22. And cruising can resume. Which ships and cruise lines will still be around then? Depends on the management skills of the executive teams - which so far have been blundering and inept.
  14. It remains a mystery why so very many CC members remain in absolute denial about reality. A group of us have been posting consistently - and accurately - since late March that cruising won't be happening until there are MAJOR changes in humankind's vulnerability to this virus. Yet month after month - sure as clockwork - people are posting "do you think we'll be back cruising by (two months from the current date)?" Ah, "No." We'll all know chances are improving when we hear of: - sharply, consistently plunging infection rates and steeply dropping hospitalization and death numbers; - and (not or) the CDC and port authorities reassessing projections and guidance; - and (not or) major league sports, hotel conferences, stadium concerts and such reopened.
  15. We have a winner. 🏆 Extending a series of interest-free loans to multibillion-dollar corporations isn't advisable. When booking cruises become practical & reality-oriented again, we'll all know it. Til then ... nope.
  16. Excellent post. It won't be popular in some circles, of course, but it's spot on.
  17. March 2020: Hertz lays off 100,000 people, Google cancels international travel, The International Housewares Show cancels its 50,000-person convention in Chicago, the NBA stops its season: Facts. Irresponsible CC posters: "Hey, nobody is going to stop the cruise lines for more than a few weeks ... this is all hype that's going going to blow over, we'll all be cruising next month" April: Diamond, Ruby, Grand, Luminosa, Zaandam and more have all had mass infections and deaths: Facts. Irresponsible CC posters: "I heard it's just the sniffles ... CDC wouldn't dare try to drag this out past May. Now's the time to book more!" The beat has gone on and on and on and ... and still the defenders do the ostrich act, thinking reality will some magically disappear. No, it won't. "Opinions" based on delusion are delusional, and opinions based on dishonesty are dishonesty. Big, big differences. The word to follow is: Evidence. Here's a lesson in that: https://www.freep.com/story/opinion/contributors/2020/05/05/coronavirus-evaluating-evidence/3083768001/
  18. Same story since March ...and zero reason for any surprise if you follow facts instead of feelings. Every projection that this virus would disappear has proven wrong, every single one. And cruising is simply not going to be be back until this thing is better controlled. The lone good news 10 months into the pandemic is that the death rate is lower than in the beginning ... but hospitalizations are horrible across the country. Infection rates are horrendous. "Reopenings" are rapidly turning into "reclosings." And anyone with knowledge that goes beyond beyond listening to YouTube rambles & OAN rants can see the winter ahead is bleaker than bleak - economically, sociologically and medically. So we know the CDC isn't going to relent, but for now forget that agency and even the ports. Instead, realize there was zero way that the cruise lines themselves were going to restart under these conditions. (Disagree? Then specify precisely which cruise line legal team you imagine would sign off on a "Hey, welcome aboard" campaign to sign up tens of thousands of passengers every week ) Cruising from the U.S. maybe ... maybe, maybe, just maybe ... second half of 2021, but that's looking less likely every week.
  19. In addition, Canada is not somehow immune to COVID-19 - Toronto is back in lockdown, the prime minister is pushing everyone in the country to stay home, and there are no provinces free of trouble: https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-canada/canadas-atlantic-bubble-disintegrates-as-covid-19-cases-rise-idUSL1N2I91QW Again, folks, the problem isn't "governors," Fauci or the CDC. The problem is the virus. And so far, it's not going anywhere.
  20. The fascinating similarities between so many bankruptcies is the presence of crippling debt ... sometimes from LBOs, but very often from over-compensated executives who simply used the credit card to keep their $$ flowing in until the whole thing collapsed. Sounds mighty familiar to the cruise lines. If they make it out of the pandemic, they'll be saddled with five boatloads of debt. And that cannot be repaid by charging bargain fares mixed with quality service .... expect to pay more & get less.
  21. True - but August vastly understates the trend. It was going good by late March, when those identical posters were cheerfully assuring that cruising would restart May 1 or sooner. And then every month afterward, without fail. The factual evidence and neutral analysis have consistently pointed to "cruising will remain shut down for the foreseeable future" .... that has been the case since March, and remains so now. Reality check: The CDC still is the whipping boy for some folks, but it is not the enemy. COVID-19 is the enemy and for now it's going nowhere. Viruses don't care if the cruise industry is wiped out. Viruses don't care about protests. Viruses don't care whether people are sick of masks and distancing, oppose the governor's new order, or just plain hate rules. Viruses don't care about our hunger for travel, our yearning to be on the ocean, our fatigue with restrictions. Viruses. Don't. Care. Today's cold water: Infection rates are soaring nationally ... far worse, hospitalization rates are, too. No, cruising will not be back in February.
  22. Nic6318 - All good points. You are right. Investing is neither Powerball nor roulette. And projecting the next year's outlook for a business may be neither science flawless, but it's not guesswork or Magic 8 Ball either. (In that way, it's a bit like forecasting the future of cruising during a global pandemic.) In the case of CCL, NCL or RCI, the mid-term future looks choppy at best. Still, there are some folks who decline to see that. They just won't. Oh well.
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