Not to muddy the waters even more but there is an issue with testing.  In order to to do testing it must be done by a CLIA (the CMS/CLIA) certified lab.  The cruise lines medical directors can always apply for a CLIA certificate, but then it must meet all the US requirements. The work around would be to have a CLIA certified US lab do the testing at the port.  The CLIA certificate issue only arrises if the The test is being performed in the US, it’s territories or commonwealths. 
 

I have always said that my concern is I fly half way around the world, test positive and have to quaranteen for two weeks.   

The amazing thing is people are probably still making final payments and giving deposits. 

39 minutes ago, mek said:

Except some being developed  are RNA vaccines and from what I have read, they could have a much higher rate of efficacy. 

Unfortunately outside of the pharma companies no one has seen data. There is lots of spin from pharma, politicians, pundits on TV but we really do not know anything.  We need to let scientists do their work. Vaccines are hard, very hard. For some reason people (probably because they watch talking heads on tv) thinks vaccines will cure everything.  They will be just one part of the arsenal.   

8 minutes ago, TheMastodon said:

Quite the double edge sword isn’t it.  Great that most don’t show symptoms and are fine, but really difficult because they can spread to others!  One day they will find out why.
 

Some businesses picked up substantially the past few months.  When people die, they all go to the same sort of place.  Odd business to be in isn’t it?  His business is booming because of a pandemic - kind of a strange position to be in.  

Funny you should say that. I just told him tonight with my luck I would buy a funeral home and people would stop dying.  

16 minutes ago, TheMastodon said:

My biggest question throughout this whole thing is how come some people get it and never know they have it?!

Many (and in some literature most) people are said to be asymptomatic.  So even though they have no symptoms they still are able to spread the virus.  Now if I had an answer for the question, we would all be in a better place.  One of my neighbors owns a bunch of funeral homes.  I just had a discussion with him and he said that he has just had a few (under 10) funerals of people under 50 with no co-morbities. He did say he averaged 30 to 40 funerals a week and since March his business has picked up 30 percent.  

3 hours ago, BND said:

But, did HIV/AIDS and Norovirus vaccines ever make it to trials?   If so, trials that were going well?   As well as a lot of people don't seem to understand they're not looking for a cure.  They're looking to get the immune response that will greatly reduce the symptoms so it's more like a common cold.

Yes they both have made it to trials which failed.  Unfortunately people think if you throw billions of dollars (in a politically charged environment) at something, it will magically work. Moderna (presently leading the pack) has never been successful in bringing a vaccine to market.  Vaccines are tough, real tough.  This virus is way different than that of a common cold.  We do not even know at this point if immunity occurs, how long nor if it would prevent another occurrence.  I think we need to let the scientists do their jobs and try to stay a safe as we can.

2 hours ago, TheMastodon said:

In regard to "long lasting problems younger people are having" - how many?  

Hard to quantify.  My transplant colleagues say that lung transplant waiting list has exploded as a result of these patients.  In NY I understand there are over 100 people awaiting transplant.  It will easily be 6 another six months before we could quantify. 
 

For some reason people think there will be a magical wand (in this case a vaccine) and several thousand people will be on a cruise ship again. On top of that, they think it will be soon.  

13 minutes ago, boscobeans said:

 

Several thousand customers shop at each of our local supermarkets during any single day. 

 

Most wear masks, others don't.

Some use the sanitizer to wipe down their shopping carts, others don't.

Some use the hand sanitizers provided, others don't.

Some pick through all the fruits and vegetables and touch EVEYTHING in the store, others don't.

Some follow the footsteps on the floor and do the ONE-WAY thing, others don't

Some stand on the 6 foot spacing markers when checking out, others don't.. 

 

During the SENIOR hours in the morning the stores here are packed with seniors and I am sure they aren't all free from any of the comorbidities yet they are there in force almost each and every morning...

 

 

There isn't and hasn't been any large or even small scale need for ICU facilities or even hospitalizations in the area?

European lines will be sailing the Caribbean in November and enforcing their rules, which are basically the same as RCCL has presented to the CDC. 

 

Let's just do it... Be careful, follow the procedures and protocols and have a Covid-19 and a NORO free cruise...

 

Everything has risk.  What I was commenting on is now that this report has been published, CDC will have to do their thing with the public comments they received, review the plans that the cruise lines will submit, deal with the politics, etc. Unfortunately his process is not efficient nor speedy.   In my opinion, to think that we will be cruising relatively soon, is beyond optimistic.  

Just now, TheMastodon said:

 

Easy answer - don't let a certain demographic cruise.

 

1.) over 70

2.) obese

3.) diabetic

4.) other health factors

 

Or require Vax ceritificate and you can hop on board.

 

That rules out majority of folks that would need intensive care (if you study the CDC statistics/reporting)

Wish it was that easy.  SARS-CoV-2 is really a very unique virus.  When you review the data, those who are up in age and have comorbidities represent most that are dying.  When I speak with my intensivist colleagues,  the problem seems to be the long lasting problems younger people are having.  

When I was in training (in the late 70's early 80s, we were getting patients with opportunistic infections.  This ended up being HIV/AIDs.  I had very respected Professors tell us, not too worry there will be a vaccine/immunization.  Heard similar things about Norovirus (since the 60s).  In order the have the level of immunity that will be effective, first, need immunizations that are safe and effective, second, need at least 70 percent of the population to immunized or show immunity.  The interesting thing we are seeing with this unique virus,  is the lack of antibodies consistent to provide immunity .

42 minutes ago, boscobeans said:

I see what RCCL has put out and aside from a few questions on getting tested and then getting the acceptable results to RCCL within 5 days I'm ready..

 

The needed physical changes to the ship seem to be within reason given the rest of September and all of October.

Crew testing and quarantining as well as training with the needed new procedures has adequate time.

Online check-in procedures will need some improvement and enforcement at certain terminals to avoid crowding.

 

CDC has the ball now and could allow cruises as early a November first? 

Caribbean's First Cruises Start on November 7th Aboard SeaDream with a series of cruises departing from Barbados.

 

Albeit, I have not been in clinical practice for quite some time, I have been involved in medical/healthcare quality analytics for over 40 years.  In briefly reviewing the Onboard Medical Capabilities, Clinic Design and Operations, Case Management, Contact Tracing, Isolation/Quarantine , Evacuation, Debarkation Scenarios this will represent a herculean effort on behalf of cruise lines.  Possibly November 1, 2021?

Should these recommendations effectively become what the cruise lines and CDC agree on, the level of care that would be required is very equivalent to what we know as an ICU level of care.  Where possibly can we get the amount of physicians and nurses that are trained and are able to provide this level of care to a very large potential number of patients.  

32 minutes ago, rallydave said:

Yes quite an interesting read.   Have a huge problem with one word that they seem to use incorrectly and is totally problematic.  That word is "should".   Having written many  many Contracts over the years it is a fact that using the word "should" does NOT create a requirement.  The proper terms are shall and will depending on the usage.  

 

The report truly should have used "shalls" when a requirement and "should" when a good idea but, not required especially in such an impartment document.  A real shame that all of the recommendations by the use of "should" are simply suggestions and not requirements!

I am not sure if the word is used incorrectly or deliberately. 

21 hours ago, quack2 said:

I keep thinking I will read something from cruise lines describing substantial new and vastly improved virus protections protocols.  What I've read so far, has just been more of the same.  I can't imagine boarding a cruise ship again until I see comprehensive protocols for preventing spread of any virus.

Here they are:

https://www.royalcaribbeangroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Healthy-Sail-Panel_Full-Recommendations_9.21.20_FINAL.pdf

Albeit, I have not been in clinical practice for quite some time, I have been involved in medical/healthcare quality analytics for over 40 years.  In briefly reviewing the Onboard Medical Capabilities, Clinic Design and Operations, Case Management, Contact Tracing, Isolation/Quarantine , Evacuation, Debarkation Scenarios this will represent a herculean effort on behalf of cruise lines.  This is obviously RCG and NCL's response to CDC and we will have to see how everything falls out.

According to Cruise & Law News reported this AM

The entire report is contained in link below:

https://www.royalcaribbeangroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/Healthy-Sail-Panel_Full-Recommendations_9.21.20_FINAL.pdf

24 minutes ago, flossie009 said:

https://www.cruisecritic.com/news/5599/

 

This was probably done to pacify all of the players that make up the cruise industry.  Bills are introduced all the time and go nowhere except to get a press release out of it. 

2 hours ago, DHADEN said:

 

 

 

 

You-Guys must be living under a rock or something.  Why don't you listen to the news or read a newspaper before you mouth off with such negative cynicism.  There are 3 or 4 AMERICAN companies RIGHT NOW that are already into the third (last) phase of testing.  It has been almost 100% positive in as many as 30,000 people.  They are already producing the 100 MILLION DOSES that the government will start distributing as soon as approval is available.  That has been said by the FDA, who are "Fast-Tracking" could be as soon as November 2020!

 

 

 

 

I am a bit puzzled by your posting.  In truthfulness, I would not depend on any of the main stream talking heads on any of the network/cable news programs nor their respective publications (especially during an election year) to be your guide.  I have been taught to let science by our guide.  I responded to an earlier post (#43) giving some personal examples in my experience with vaccine development.  To think that an effective, safe, peer reviewed vaccine will be available for general use by November is not based in reality.  I do not mean this in an adversarial way, but in a reality way.  I can share with you the data that I have seen, there has never been an immunization/vaccine that comes anywhere near 100 percent effectiveness.  Additionally, for there to be any meaningful protection, we must have at least 70 percent of he population vaccinated. 

11 minutes ago, Plum Happy said:

Just watched the Moderna CEO was talking to CBS News (they are in phase 3 with 30,000 people) and before anything can be approved, the data has to be submitted to support the findings.  There are more than 30,000 in each the case studies.  Just because the FDA wants to fast track, we do have a process in the US of reviewing everything and not jumping the gun.  After the peer review studies are completed, then they will decide which or if all three will go forward for the vaccination program and how many doses people will need and also, it may very well be a vaccination such as the flu shot.  We have to wait and see.

 

Also, a study was done, that showed those who wear glasses were least likely to have or get Covid-19.  👊👍

One interesting fact is that Moderna has yet (in their history) to have a vaccine make it to market.  It only takes 50 percent effectiveness for approval by FDA.   Vaccines are hard to develop, in fact very hard.  Please refer to my post # 43 to get an idea what experiences I have encountered over the years with vaccines.  

I envision that we will have to take a rapid SARS-CoV-2 (PCR type or equivalent) test.  I am not discussing the accuracy rate, but can you imagine flying (whether it is Barbados, Cabo , Australia, or anywhere) and end up testing positive. What a nightmare. 

20 hours ago, DHADEN said:

Sorry You Feel so Negatively, but I think you are very wrong.

 

Cruising will resume after a successful VACCINE is distributed to the population and the Cruise-Lines can demand that ANYONE/EVERYONE has to have proof of taking the vaccine  before they are allowed on board.

THEN.....

Everyone on board will be safe and relaxed in knowing no one has it and no one can catch it.

This COULD happen as early as somewhere between Dec. 2020 and Jan. of 2021.

I agree that should a vaccine/immunization be developed that shows efficacy, it potentially would be a significant step in the right direction.  When I was in training in the early 1980's we were hit with the HIV/AIDS virus.  I remember professors (and well respected physicians) saying to us that a vaccine/immunization for this virus could potentially be available in five years or so.   When Norovirus was first diagnosed in 1968, once again we were told that a vaccine/immunization would be developed. Here we are how many years later still without a vaccine.  At least when a patient gets a diagnoses of HIV today, there are very effective pharmaceutical treatments and it is no longer a death sentence. 

Vaccines are hard to develop, in fact, tremendously hard.  It is not a fact of how much money you throw at something, science takes time.  Eventually we will probably see somewhat of a hybrid, something similar to the flu shot.  

Another issue is the availability of the basic supplies that are required to administer a vaccine (possibly multiple doses) to hundreds of millions of people.  We are dependent on China for things such as syringes,  the vials that would contain the vaccine material, the needles for the syringes, etc. 

The SARS-CoV-2 is an highly infectious aerosolized vrus in which we do not even have an idea how it may mutate.  Additionally, we do not know what type of immunity a successful vaccine might provide.  I would not want anyone to think just because they receive whatever the eventual vaccine(s) may be, that they will be able to "Everyone on board will be safe and relaxed in knowing no one has it and no one can catch it".  Unfortunately, that will never be a reality. 

Wouldn’t you love to be a fly in the wall when the hedge fund and investment people hear this scheme.  

Once the dust settles and an autopsy is done on this whole mess, business schools everywhere will use this as case study on how to destroy your client base, your reputation and brand.

Seabourn has already announced cancellations into January 2021. It is not fair to keep stringing people along just to collect more deposits and final payments.  

Had a a telephone conversation with my TA today.  She happened to bring up that Crystal is not taking and final payments at this time.  

3 minutes ago, RJ2002 said:

 

Yes.

 

None of us know when it will be, but it will probably be a different onboard experience - - initially and perhaps longer term as well.  Capacity (guests onboard, and even number of ships sailing) will likely be less.

 

But, I am hopeful and optimistic that cruising will return.  

I enjoy cruising and certainly hope it returns.  My original post dealt with the fact that it was baffling to me that someone would make a final payment or deposit at this time.  As an example, people will have to make final payment on October, November and December cruises soon. Crystal, Viking and Holland America are to be commended that they announced cancelations through the end of the year.  I am no economist nor expert on the travel industry, but my gut tells me those cruises (October, November and December) are not going to happen.