Boyetter2013

I asked for my refund the minute they announced the last round of cancellations (about 9 or 10 days ago) for our June cruise. taking the advice of a couple of people here I immediately did a charge back with Amex. Just like those who suggested the charge back would speed things along I got my full refund yesterday. I am not saying there is causation, but I definitely think there is correlation.

YMMV

If I am choosing a refund instead of FCC, do I still need to go through my TA to do so, or can i use the link on the RCL site?

I was about to post the same thing. I figured they got mad at me and booted me from Crown and Anchor. Am I missing something or is there a way to just submit it once for all the bookings you check. it seems crazy to have to re-enter it each time I look at a cruise.

I wont go into the same lengthy wait times I experienced that everyone else has. Suffice it to say, I tried to lift and shift a cruise that is going to be cancelled in the next go round. Six-nighter. There are only seven-nighters in the four week window available for my itinerary. Matter of fact there is only one six-nighter in the entire world during that time frame. If they couldn't do the swap straight up,  I offered to pay the difference for the one night extra. They said nope and nope. I told them then I would take my cash refund next week. If they had never offered this then it wouldn't concern me, but to offer it and then not offer anything I could swap to annoyed me. Maybe it shouldn't but it does. They don't need my cash. 

4 minutes ago, rimmit said:

If analysts were always right they’d all be billionaires.  

 

I agree the chance of bankruptcy is low,  but this industry has no bailouts and no revenue, and at this time enough cash to survive till Q1 2021 by analysts, and a business model that is incompatible with coronavirus.  That’s enough red flags for me.  Do I think bankruptcy will happen, no, but there is no company too big to fail.  I bought RCL back in 2009 and it’s done very well for me.  Didn’t sell at the peak but got out at $96 before the total free fall.  Not bad given I bought in Mar ‘09 For $6.
 

I really don’t think it will go bankrupt, but I can ride a much bigger wave in the future by getting my FCC back into cash and putting it into RCL stock if I so choose, and get Likely get a much bigger return then as well. Plus I get flexibility as to when I want to book, and not having a ton of restrictions.  We have two kids and we cant use their FCCs on a Kids sail free sailing,  which makes it hard for us to use.  

I totally get you. The truth is none of us know the future. I am certainly not looking to convince anyone of anything. To each our own. I was just responding to why my thoughts were what they are currently.

2 minutes ago, jerseyjjs said:

Good luck with that future sailing you book, that ACTUALLY sails off (most likely into 2021), that it's 25% or less than the total of the cruise that was cancelled.

it makes no difference what the cost of the next booking is. Its like you are trying to do math without using the order of operations. I paid x for a cruise. Cruise cancels and I get 1.25x. I now book cruise y. I am not getting 25% off the price of y. I am using 1.25x to pay for y. The fact that y might be higher than x doesn't change the fact that I have 25% more x than I initially started with. What if y is less than x?

2 minutes ago, st5310 said:

Thank you for the reply, Boyetter2013.  You evidently have a better grasp of the analyses as they pertain to Royal stock.

I'm not saying its a good or bad investment as a company. I was just commenting that based on my research the risk of bankruptcy today is low. They have a product/service they can use to generate cash flow (future bookings) to supplement their current cash reserves which are significant. This is a major advantage over say a restaurant chain who has its door shut. I'm not saying they wont go belly-up (they are adding debt to weather the storm), it is always a possibility and i definitely wouldn't book a $10k cruise right now but $1500 is within my risk tolerance zone.

3 minutes ago, rimmit said:

So about 10-12 months of liquidity as Q1 2021 is when they run out of cash which is what I stated.  It will be a close race to see who wins out.  Bankruptcy or the cruise line.  The bond rates are already impressively high for The cruise lines.  I imagine if they draw again (if they even can). Those rates will be credit card level.  We will see.

 

I sold my shares this Monday in all the cruiselines.  Went into oil.   Figure no matter what people need oil.   People don’t have to have cruises.
 

I may play the swings a little bit as I am up quite a bit from the shorting and swings thus far so have some room to play.

 

I hope they make it.  I love cruising as much as anyone, but the 25 percent possible return on investment plus opportunity Cost of keeping my money there isn’t worth it to me.  I doubt they will go bankrupt personally,  but for me it’s too risky for my personal taste.  

If you moved into oil be very conscious of the contango. Futures are currently trading significantly above spot.

5 minutes ago, st5310 said:

My two cents, if I may.  I had one cruise cancel--May 10 Oasis, but I have 3 more scheduled for July on the Adventure.  As some of you have pointed out, those sailings will likely be cancelled as well.  I do have one great fear in this, and that is the possibility of bankruptcy.

 

I did some crude calculations.  If most people (including me) take the refund, the cruise lines will be required to dig into their stash of emergency funds (if such a stash even exists).  Let's say that 20,000 booked passengers request refunds amounting to an average of $1,000 per person, the cruise line will be paying out $20 million... and those numbers are highly conservative; depending on how long the crisis endures, those numbers could easily exceed $100 million by year's end.  With enormous investments tied up in bigger and more expensive ships under construction and the loss of major revenue along with millions in outgoing expenses (refunds), cruise lines will be hard-pressed to stay fiscally sound.  I hope Royal Caribbean can weather this storm, but if bankruptcy happens, there will be no refunds for any of us.

 

Please tell me I'm wrong.

Best bet is to read the analyst recommendations on the stock. They have more detailed financial info and the experience to decipher it. Bankruptcy is always a possibility. Currently no analyst who covers the stock has it on a sell recommendation so they are seeing a very small to zero chance as of now of bankruptcy.

8 minutes ago, Jimbo said:

For that 6 day itinerary you are still over paying. Port Canaveral and Coco Cay, really?

Thanks for sharing. Your opinion is of great value to me.

4 minutes ago, rimmit said:

I originally was about to book a bunch of cruises just to get the FCC bonus,  but then backtracked as I am not sure what would happen if they went bankrupt.  The recent CDC requirements scared me off that idea.

 

I have since requested my refunds for any cruise that was eligible. If I knew with even 80 percent certainty they would cruise before they ran out of cash I’d do it.  However, given cruises will be the LAST thing to come back, and only after a vaccine has been able to be disseminated to the public I am very iffy if the cruise lines will survive.  The requirements the CDC has made on the cruise lines to start sailing, are incredibly stringent.  
 

I am sure they will not have 15-18 months of liquidity.  They have around 10-12 months now tapping many credit lines, but I am not sure how much credit left they can tap into if they get 8 months into this as if they get to that point they will be hurting so bad I can’t imagine they will be able to get many to give them any more credit.

The latest financials I saw showed they drew down on 3.5  billion of lines of credit and with everything shutdown have a estimated cash burn rate off about 110 - 150 million a month. See analyst notes below.

Royal Caribbean price target lowered to $62 from $66 at Nomura Instinet 04/08 RCL Nomura Instinet analyst Harry Curtis lowered the firm's price target on Royal Caribbean (RCL) to $62 from $66 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Based on the analyst's new cash burn and recovery forecasts for the cruise industry through 2023, he believes that Royal Caribbean, Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) and Carnival (CCL) have liquidity/borrowing capacity to survive "near-zero revenues" through Q1 of 2021. Curtis sees a low risk of bankruptcies for the group.

Read more at:
https://thefly.com/landingPageNews.php?id=3068926

11 minutes ago, Iamcruzin said:

Do you know how much they are charging for drink packages, internet, and dining packages?

its the normal, no discount pricing. Like 8.99 for soda, 28.99 for refreshment range of pricing.

4 minutes ago, B-52 said:

Agreed....scanning all the latest posts, I also can't believe how gullible people are. More wishful and hopeful  than reality.  RCI is leading people on one month at a time to hold onto revenues, at the same time taking additional bookings, or offering FCC. Anything than give refunds for cancellations.    What else would you expect a large Corporation to do?
Come Jan-Feb it will be another month gone by, with another month canceled, RCI following the same playbook.

I saw lots of people using the exact same word, "gullible", when the market was cratering 6 weeks ago and I was buying. Gullible would be giving RCL an interest free loan on the hopes a ship sails. Giving RCL a loan at a guaranteed 25% rate of return is a use of capital with a significant upside to downside ratio. But hey, to each their own.

4 minutes ago, Iamcruzin said:

Too bad there aren't more people like you willing to turn cash into 125% FCC. It there were they may have cash flow to refund cash deposits.  I bet if they drop those drink packages to $49 a day for those 2021 cruises there would be an influx of cash that they are guaranteed to keep at least until the beginning of the year. It would buy them time as things develop.

We sail at least once a year so the risk : reward works for us. If by some craziness she does sail then it will be a great way to shake off the quarantine blues.

2 minutes ago, JAMESCC said:

A grand! A Grand you say? Holy cow! I am in awe!

With discounts it was $341 each for me, wife and teen daughter plus taxes for a guaranteed neighborhood balcony. Its the last week of school up here, but since school is basically online I figured cutting the last week wont make a difference. Of course, I still have no belief it will actually sail.

We are booked on the June 21 sailing on Oasis. I know it isn't going to go but I figured its a 25% return on the loan I am making to Royal as I will take the FCC. If by some stroke of luck it does sail, then we got a neighborhood balcony for just over a grand for 3 (plus taxes). I see it as a win/win either way.

3 hours ago, jptoz said:

 I'm scheduled to go on the July 4 Oasis sailing, but the only way I could see these cruises taking place, is if they test everyone before boarding and only go to Coco cay and  or Labadee. This way  they can control passengers exposure on land. Also what Caribbean island would allow 5000 people from the tristate area onto there island, they you have to be nuts. 

Double post. Cant find a delete button.

3 hours ago, jptoz said:

 I'm scheduled to go on the July 4 Oasis sailing, but the only way I could see these cruises taking place, is if they test everyone before boarding and only go to Coco cay and  or Labadee. This way  they can control passengers exposure on land. Also what Caribbean island would allow 5000 people from the tristate area onto there island, they you have to be nuts. 

Most of them. These island nations survive on tourism dollars brought by the cruise lines.

47 minutes ago, Ocean Boy said:

Great price but RCI better have some sort of rabbit it intends to pull out of its hat to make that cruise happen.

I am only half concerned that it sails. I am almost as happy if it cancels and I bank an extra 25%.

6 minutes ago, Jimbo said:

I have no idea what that means?

I was alluding to how cheap the price was. $341 a person for a guaranteed balcony on Oasis for a week at the end of June. It was worth the gamble.

On 4/11/2020 at 12:47 PM, Sam.Seattle said:

 

 

Interesting points...

 

At 10.3 minutes = Debt to Equity for RCL 96.5%

At  13.0 minutes = USA goverment disqualifies Cruise industry from bailout because:

             A) Not create or organized in USA or under USA Law.

             B) Does not have significant in and a majority of its employees based in the USA.  Carnival is      incorporated in Panama, 

                 Royal is Liberia and Norwegian is Bermuda. Thus paying little or no taxes to the USA.

At 31.4 minutes - Carnival security filing statement - We can not predict when any of our ships will sail again.

 

Just looking at the facts... Trying to separate the opinions.

 

So.... Will they file bankruptcy and what value will the Future Cruise Certificates really have?

I have made a little money so far trading options on RCL. One of the real items to look at is free cash and burn rate. Last numbers I saw showed a cash burn rate of $145 million/month. They ended 2019 with $0.243 billion and just drew down on their 2.2 billion credit line. With ships not sailing they aren't burning fuel. RCL is set cash-to-burn for at least 9 months. They will have to deal with the additional debt down the road. Also consider their 2019 Debt-to-EBITDA ratio was 2.7. Not horrible for a company this size. While I definitely wont discount a possible chapter 11 down the road, the odds of a chapter 7 I believe would be quite low based on what we know today.

On 4/9/2020 at 11:45 AM, steveru621 said:

 

I certainly hope you are correct.

 

Main lines will continue, but that does not mean they won't go bankrupt to protect them from crushing debt.  Many large companies have survived bankruptcy.

Even if they file chapter 11, that doesnt mean they will zero out FCC. That would be a major mistake as it would tell customers to not sail them in the future. They will definitely risk screwing shareholders, but hosing those with FCC would probably be an issue they don't recover from. The idea of a re-org is to continue operations while they fix the problem. Zeroing out FCC will directly negatively impact continuing operations. The only way they would zero out FCC is if they chapter 7 and shut the doors permanently.

ps.. I just rolled the dice on a June 21 sailing out of NJ on Oasis. It was about an inch above being free for the length and the ship.

18 minutes ago, Biker19 said:

The processing is down by Plusgrade but the money goes to RCI so all the refund will come from them. 

I figured as much. Thanks for the info.

50 minutes ago, soremekun said:

I am anxiously awaiting the results.  I am on the next cruise on Anthem.

We are in the same boat (no pun intended). Luckily we live here on Long Island so travel isn't an issue. I know this should be a no-brainer, but if they cancel I assume Royal-Up is refunded as well. Its a separate company and that got me to thinking about it.

My biggest thought now if they cancel the 2/15 sailing is what do I and my daughter do for a week on the spur of the moment. This is our school winter-break cruise.

2 hours ago, ducati996spr said:

 

Per night, or total? $210 is a great deal if so!

210$ total for the cruise.