ldtr1

I said that CCL had one luxury line, but no premium. Noted that when i said that when RCL sold its Premium.line it kept its luxury line just like CCL.

Explora ships are 922. Similar to Viking. Of course the average fare is more than twice the average HAL fare. Now HAL is in a niche all of its own. The premium and luxury segments are crowded and getting even more crowded. Not much reason for HAL to move out of its current niche, which is smallest average ship size, most unique itineraries, and longest average itinerary length at a mass market price point. CCL is moving Princess even further out of HALs niche with its increasing ship size. Any future HAL ships will almost certainly be in the 2000 range. Do not see CCL doing anything in the Premium space unless one of those existing lines fail and a bargain comes along. Even then unlikely for CCL to move there. It really is not how CCL built their business which is on the value side, with volume, with niche markets. PO UK close to Princess but focused on UK, Aida on Germany, Costa on Italy. Carnival NA family value focused, Princess NA adult focused, Cunard UK NA traditional liner focused, HAL unique itineraries. Even RCL chose to sell off it premium brand Azamara. Though, like CCL has kept a luxury brand. The closest CCL comes tp a premium price point is Cunard, but even it is below the real premium players, being inbetween the two categories.

Large LNG ships do nice on shorter, repetitive routes. Especially since in NA LNG is cheaper then diesel. Not so well in the longer unique routes in the south pacific, asia, south america and africa that HAL has been known for. The Chengkp7 went over it in detail when you brought up the same repetitive claim a few weeks back. HAL is not in competition to any large degree with the mega ships. They go to a relative few crowded ports on short repetitive itineraries. That is not HALs niche Your arguements are a little along the lines of apples are cheaper than oranges so noone will buy them. Gee according to your posts i guess the industry will consolidate to a few companies operating megaships that do the same itineraries over and over because of economy of scale and lots of bells and whistles. Really not so much.

If a booking is made, and a charge not credited against the booking the system will treat like a hold, that did not have a deposit on it and will cancel without any notification being made once the deadline, often 24 hours passes. Did the confirmation you were mailed show the amount of the deposit and remaining amount due?

The best source for that is cruise market watch for passengers, line revenue, etc With sec fililings as a way to validate the totals. Satista also gives some. The rest you have to pull out in drips and drabs from articles, analyst calls, clia and other trade orgnizations and news articles. Often requires taking different pieces and assemble them to get an overall picture. Lots of ways to combine and check. One example is capacity efficiency using revenue from market watch and fleet size ftom sec filing. Another is passengers per fleet capacity such as the look at Costa above. Will have to dig up percentage business in Caribbean by brand. That used to be in a florida trade publication each year but have not looked for it lately.

Costa now has a fleet capacity of 29,140 and in 2024 has carried 1,409,100 passengers or 4.7 percent of the industry Compare that to HAL which has a fleet capacity of 22,920 and has carried 796,500 or Princess with fleet with the Sun of 50,400 and carried 1,649,600. Now which has the highest passenger to capacity ratio, Costa. Was a bit different before 8000 capacity was transfered to Carnival.

Lets see HAL may have 5 ships there during the winter, so it is basically a place for the ships during the winter. As you say 5 of 11. How does that compare to the Royal, NCL, and Celebrity fleets which are far more Caribbean focused. Basically it is a place to put the ships from Alaska and Europe. HAL has far less dependency on the Caribvean than Royal, Celebrity and NCL. As far as Costa goes look at fleet capacity compared to pre covid, then look at passenger numbers. They draw your own conclusions As far as sources Sec filings gives company totals and fleet sizes. Can be used to compare with brand numbers from market watch to verify those numbers. Cruise market watch Carnival Analyst Call Notes Numerous news reports in both industry focused and business publication Various data sets released by CLIA and other cruise organizations are a few. In addition the are some for fee spuurces but i do not reference those in any i post here, instead relying only on public sources. Currently setting down to tea. Will give more detailed response later

I suspect that calculator is a bit off sunce it would imply an inflation of 87% since 2019. If one looks at the actual CPI numbers. CPI in 2019 was 255.7 compared to an ending 2024 estimate of 314.4 according to the Minneapolis Fed. That would be an inflation of 21.8% while still a material number it is certainly not 87%. Now if one want to apply it to the profit number, which be valid, one should also apply its impact of the value of the debt, which would mean an equivalent level compared to 2019 would be about 10 billion. Also where you tried to make a big thing out out of the 4 % interest, one should not that while that rate is high compared to recent history. Interest rates were higher, often much higher from 1960 to 2005, really not an extreme level

the prices are not different with other lines in the very competitive caribbean market. A market which is not really a main focus for HAL. Just a place to put a couole of ships during the winter, not quite like Royal where the Caribbean accounts for over half of their passengers. Pretty easy to look at public data sources to get revenue performance numbers on HAL. Looking at how well HAL is doing over the past year its revenue divided by fleet capacity is substantially better rhan Carnival and Princess, and is very close to Celebrity. Much better to look at overall numbers instead of pulling a low fare or two and then try and claim that it represent that the line is failing. You tried the same thing with the Alaska market a few months ago when it was actually fairly difficult to find space on HAL ships.

Just keep repeating the same think, you said the same thing before. P&O Australia got shutdown because 1. Very small brand on 3 ships 2. Niche easily filled by Carnival since it was the discount Australian line very similar to Carnival demographics in the Australian market 3. They got their ships from Princess. No more coming from that source for several years. None of which apply to HAL. Actually CCL is not focusing on Princess. No new ship orders for Princess since Covid, only completing 2 ships ordered pre covid. Keep grasping for straws and tryimg to spin it into a bad hypothesis for HAL. As with your past attempt the result will be different.

As i posted earlier that it is not on the cabin displays. i am currently on Regal Princess. If it was it was only for a very brief time, until they caught the error. Was not there last Novenber when i was on another Princess ship. Was not on Princess during Spring and Summer because was on other cruise lines. So cannot say for sure during that period. You said earlier that you had seen a picture in another stream and i asked for a link because the hotel manager on rhe Regal said that he had never seen it on board and was very interested in seeing any picture of it.

The CCL profit for this last quarter was basically the same as for the same quarter in 2019 pre Covid around 1.7 billion. Prior to Covid CCL tended to operate with 8 billion in long term debt. Currently around 3 times that level. Current profit levels should easily support a reduction in debt of around 4 billion per year, even with some new ship construction taking place. Expect CCL to pace new ship orders in such a way to continue to reduce debt overall with a goal of getting back to that debt level of 8 to 10 billion over the next 5-6 years or so. Debt for new ship orders will be at very attractive rates due to subsidies from countries hosting the shipyards. Once they have debt in the 8 to 10 billion range then one can expect a pace of ship construction similar to preCovid with a more limited pace until then.

the next AI product One that automatically reponds to the prove you are human screens.

On the cruise i am on, the Regal Princess, the premium seats are filled well before the 5 minutes. When i was on the Emerald, some would be availsble, but those were not in the best locations. On producton show nights there are usually members of the CD staff checking those in the reserved seats. Many of those thst could sit in the reserved seats choose to sit else where.

That is my understanding as well.