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About NavArch64

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    Cool Cruiser

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    International Travel
  • Favorite Cruise Line(s)
    HAL, Princess, RCCL
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  1. But as Annie sang ... The sun will come out tomorrow ...
  2. Excellent post. That would be very interesting.
  3. If, in the extreme case, all $2.9B of Guest Deposits were to be refunded, the Liquidity of $7.6B would be reduced to $4.7B, all other things being equal. Simple arithmetic .... 4.700/650 = 7.23 ... months until zero cash ... all other things being equal. But, of course, CCL could always keep selling ships, to raise additional cash, assuming that there are buyers for such ships. This is where things become complicated at best.
  4. In the SEC 10Q for 2/29/20, Total Shareholders Equity was $24.29B. With the Q2 GAAP Net Loss of $4.4B, Total Shareholders Equity would be $19.9B on 5/31/20. Again, each of us can do our own forecast arithmetic as we choose.
  5. In the SEC 8K filed 6/18/20, GAAP Net Loss of $4.4B for Q2. Liquidity of $7.6B as of 5/31/20. Guest Deposits of $2.9B as of 5/31/20. Est cash burn of $650M per month rest of 2020. Each of us can do the forecast arithmetic as we choose. Very challenging for CCL.
  6. So … the company hopes that the actions being taken will provide enough liquidity for the next 12 months. But … there are so many unknowns and uncertainties that the company does not know what lies ahead. We, as loyal guests, can only wish them well.
  7. Here is one more citation …. Funding Needs and Sources Historically, we relied on a combination of cash flows provided by operations, draw downs under our available credit facilities, the incurrence of additional debt and/or the refinancing of our existing debt and the issuance of additional shares of equity securities to fund our obligations. The impact of COVID-19 resulted in our previously announced voluntary suspension of global cruise operations from March 13 through at least July 31, 2020 and China sailings until at least June 30, 2020. This suspension of operations has strained our sources of cash flow and liquidity, causing us to take actions resulting in reductions in our operating expenses, reductions in our capital expenses and new financings and other liquidity actions. The Company continues to identify and evaluate further actions to improve its liquidity. These include and are not limited to: further reductions in capital expenditures, operating expenses and administrative costs and additional financings. See further discussion on these liquidity actions at Recent Developments - COVID-19. We have significant contractual obligations of which our debt service obligations and the capital expenditures associated with our ship purchases represent our largest funding needs. As of March 31, 2020, we had $8.8 billion of committed financing for final delivery installments on our ships on order. Based on our assumptions and estimates and our financial condition, we believe that the liquidity resulting from the actions mentioned above will be sufficient to fund our liquidity requirements over at least the next twelve months. However, there is no assurance that our assumptions and estimates are accurate due to possible unknown variables related this unprecedented suspension of our operations and, as such, there is inherent uncertainty in our ability to predict future liquidity requirements.
  8. Here is just one brief citation …. Recent Developments: COVID-19 The disruptions to our operations resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic (“COVID-19”) have had, and continue to have, a material negative impact on our financial condition and results of operations. The outbreak of COVID-19 has resulted in an unprecedented global response to contain the spread of the disease. These global efforts have resulted in travel restrictions and created significant uncertainty regarding worldwide port closures and availability. As part of the global containment effort, the Company previously announced a voluntary suspension of its global cruise operations from March 13 through at least July 31, 2020 and China sailings until at least June 30, 2020. Continued disruptions to travel and port operations in various regions may result in further suspensions. The Company has been developing a comprehensive and multi-faceted program to address the unique public health challenges posed by COVID-19. This includes, among other things, enhanced screening, upgraded cleaning and disinfection protocols and plans for social distancing. The Company will continue to work with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, global public health authorities and national and local governments to enhance measures to protect the health, safety and security of guests, crew and the communities visited when we are out of service and once operations resume.
  9. There was a typo in the Title … should be 10Q instead of 10K. In any event … this is the reference to the SEC filing. Quarterly report which provides a continuing view of a company's financial position. https://www.rclinvestor.com/financial-info/sec-filings/ Click on 10Q May 21, 2020.
  10. I just read/scanned the 10K ... Very revealing ... Very complete ... Very transparent ... Very complex. What a challenge for RCCL going forward. It seems like 12 months is the planning horizon for now.
  11. PS 2K of the 2.4B is mine. Small for them ... not so small for me.
  12. Of course ... only if they actually pay the deposit refunds. Now we can clearly see why RCCL will delay payment as long as they can. But your point is well taken ... if the 2.4B had to be paid back immediately ... then current liquidity drops to only 0.9B.
  13. From the SEC filing of May 20 ... 3.3B of current liquidity minus 3.0B cash burn per 12 months minus 0.4B debt repayment end of 2020 equals 100M cash deficit one year from now .... unless cumulative operational net positive cash flows return by then. Simple analysis indicates difficult sailing ahead for RCCL. Probably more liquidity needed in the near future. .
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