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richmke

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  • Content Count

    377
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About richmke

  • Rank
    Cool Cruiser

About Me

  • Location
    Midwest, USA
  • Interests
    Tinkering
  • Favorite Cruise Line(s)
    Princess, Celebrity, HAL
  • Favorite Cruise Destination Or Port of Call
    Some place warm

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  1. When any cruise line can restart will depend upon what you say. Once that threshold is met, which lines open up will depend upon the demographics of the cruisers. All else being equal, the lines with an older demographic will open later than ones with a younger demographic.
  2. IMHO, Carnival will restart before Princess. Carnival caters to a younger crowd where the risks of complications from a COVID infection are less. HAL will restart last with the oldest, and at highest risk, average passenger. IMHO, I think Disney will open later too. Can't easily control the kids (keep masks on, don't touch everything, etc.). If one person has it, it will spread to all the passengers with kids in an enclosed cruise ship.
  3. > NCL will probably not survive, but no matter as it will have little or no effect on the U.S. economy. NCL will survive. The question is whether the current stock holder will have anything in 2 years. NCL could go through bankruptcy reorganization (chapter 11), not liquidation (chapter 7). The debt holders will get the company, and then run it.
  4. Just received an e-mail about my July AK cruise being cancelled.
  5. This article was quoted in the letter: https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2020-carnival-cruise-coronavirus/ Cindy Friedman, the experienced epidemiologist who leads the CDC’s cruise ship task force. “I have a hard time believing they’re just a victim of happenstance.” They didn't quote this: She says its actions created a “huge strain” on the country. “Nobody should be going on cruise ships during this pandemic, full stop,” she says. My question is: If it was so evident to her (an experienced epidemiologist), why did it take until March 14th for the CDC to issue the No Sail Order? Isn't the CDC supposed to be on top of things that can lead to Pandemics? Why is Carnival being blamed when the CDC was silent?
  6. Short-term, I think it benefits CCL - people less likely to book on a troubled carrier than one perceived as more financially sound. Long-term - not good. The most likely outcome of Bankruptcy is that the Debt Holders end up owning the Company. It will be run as it has been, but with new owners. The new owners will have a lower cost basis (wiped out Equity holders), so lower total cost of operations. The industry will have the same number of ships, competing for the same passengers. It will take a while for supply and demand to rebalance. In the meantime, passengers can get good deals, but the cruise companies will have problems. One other benefit of bankruptcy is that NCL will be able to get out of contracts for ships being built. That will help reduce future supply.
  7. We just booked an end of July Alaska Cruise from Seattle. Booked a balcony in case we are stuck for an extra 2 weeks on the ship. Maybe we will end up in Long Beach for quarantine, and we can visit the kids. Very few of the cabins are booked. I'd be surprised if more than 1/3 of the cabins are filled for the first cruise at the beginning of July. Maybe that is the plan - 50% or less occupancy.
  8. I wonder if CCL will offer to let people exchange FCC for stock. Other threads are complaining about delays in receiving refunds. If CCL doesn't clear the refund backlog soon (after raising all the money), then the stock is worthless.
  9. I was doing some searching on Princess for Alaska cruises. My PVP called me the next day and offered some OBC and free gratuities. You might not have to wait for a sale.
  10. I bought at near the 52 week low. I figure the 4.4% dividend yield is safe and provides a lot of downside protection vs. a 1.60% 10 year treasury bond yield. The occasional $1/share OBC is a bonus. It takes a lot of cruises to make up for a $20/share drop in price form the 52 week high.
  11. From what I have read, since you are Platinum, you will get a better deal on board on the first day. The price you get will reflect the value of your free minutes that you won't need. The advance deal is the best one for anyone that does not get free minutes.
  12. Yes, normal. FYI: Don't worry about dealing with a person who called you until they ask for payment. With Princess, you can have the person book the reservation for you, and tell them you will pay the deposit on-line. Then you can login to your Princess account and make payment. They should give you at least 1 day to make a deposit to lock in the fare. If they don't, then tell them to have a nice day.
  13. Probably trying to save themselves some hassle of refunding any balance to the gift card. On my last cruise, I put a gift card onto my folio at the Passenger Service Desk. No problem. They paid for charges in the right order: 1) Non-refundable OBC 2) Gift card 3) Refundable OBC (purchased by cruise agent) If you only have non-refundable OBC, then you are better off waiting until you know the OBC is used up before you put the Gift Card onto your account. FYI: Use the Gift Card to purchase Future Cruise Deposits. Note: Do this before depositing to your account, since you can't use OBC to purchase FCD.
  14. Since CCL (including Princess) is not governed by NV law, there would be nothing "nefarious" about requesting a machine with a payout lower than 80%. I doubt that Princess is getting machines lower than 80% > The implication of posts on the forum were that somehow the slots of cruise ships are > worse payback than those in Nevada. I would argue that Princess slots are worse payback than those in Las Vegas. > That is not true (unless they are violating their rules) -- the slots are the same ones found in Nevada. Just because Nevada has an 80% minimum does not mean that all slots are at 80%. In fact, the reports indicate that slots are around 90-95%. So, Princess could be "worse payback" than those in Las Vegas, even if they are higher than the Nevada minimum. > I think the assumption that many make is that the cruise lines are out to screw us at any opportunity they can > so of course they would set them at 80% and not a percentage point more to make as much profit as possible > and also because their isn't competition casino across the street. I'm not saying that Princess sets them at 80%. Heck, they could set them at 90% and still be worse than most places in Las Vegas. You are naive if you think the lack of competition on a Cruise Ship would not affect payout rates. If there was only one place to gamble in Las Vegas, then they would probably be a lot closer to the 80% minimum. Because of competition, the casinos in Las Vegas have to raise their payout rates to attract customers. The LV airport is notorious for having low payouts. Captive audience (people waiting for their plane). I'm guessing that small towns are similar. I doubt that Princess has a payout ratio of 80%. If the cruise line gained a reputation for being really stingy, then real gamblers will cruise on other lines. My guess is that Princess has a payout a little less (3-5%?) than Las Vegas in order to keep gamblers happy enough. > The truth is we don't know what the payback is, but it is the same requirement as Nevada. The "requirement" is the minimum payout. The real issue is whether Princess is competitive to the average Las Vegas casino (which is way more than the minimum). That is where Princess is competing for the vacation $$$'s. > And based on my personal experience playing the casino slots it is a very similar experience to Vegas land based casinos. > I don't feel like I lose more and faster than I do in Vegas. You can set the odds of the slot so that "you don't feel like you lose more and faster". The odds could be the same as Las Vegas for the low payouts (not losing more and faster). If they set the jackpot really tight, then that can make a real difference to the Casino. They take your $100 over the course of the evening (lots of small wins to you to keep you entertained), and you are a happy camper. By rarely having to pay out the $10,000 big prize, they make a lot more money. You never notice it, because you don't expect to win the big prize.
  15. However, Cruise Ship Slots are not subject to competition from the Casino across the street. 80% payout is rather low. Typical slot payouts are 90-95% in Nevada.
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