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cruiseanon32

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About cruiseanon32

  • Rank
    Cool Cruiser

About Me

  • Location
    Fremont, CA
  • Interests
    sports
  • Favorite Cruise Line(s)
    NCL
  • Favorite Cruise Destination Or Port of Call
    Barcelona

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  1. The price variance up or down is within 20% of the original price at the outset. You would think that most cruisers book months in advance but this table seems to indicate that there are a bunch of last minute bookings.
  2. For me its trying to ensure I secure my comped cruise over the Christmas weekend
  3. How many days out from day of sailing do we see price drops if the demand for a particular cruise is less than expected
  4. Maybe I strayed on the Yellow Brick Road, but to my knowledge a large percentage of the passengers are Americans and the 1 PM EST kick off would be 7 PM in the Mediterranean.Not an unreasonable request to show the games live in the day and age of live streaming.
  5. RCL Symphony update, supposed to dock Miami 8/31, postponed by 4 days Symphony 8/24/19 Sailing We’ve replaced our visit to CocoCay with Nassau, Bahamas, and extended our sailing. DATES DAY ORIGINAL ITINERARY REVISED ITINERARY 8/24 Saturday Miami, Florida Miami, Florida 8/25 Sunday Cruising Cruising 8/26 Monday Cruising Cruising 8/27 Tuesday San Juan, Puerto Rico San Juan, Puerto Rico 8/28 Wednesday Labadee, Haiti Labadee, Haiti 8/29 Thursday Cruising Cruising 8/30 Friday Nassau, Bahamas Nassau, Bahamas 8/31 Saturday Miami, Florida Cruising 9/01 Sunday - Cruising 9/02 Monday - Cozumel, Mexico 9/03 Tuesday - Cruising 9/04 Wednesday - Miami, Florida
  6. RCL Symphony was supposed to dock Miami on 8/31 but they have rerouted, may apply to all ships Symphony 8/24/19 Sailing We’ve replaced our visit to CocoCay with Nassau, Bahamas, and extended our sailing. DATES DAY ORIGINAL ITINERARY REVISED ITINERARY 8/24 Saturday Miami, Florida Miami, Florida 8/25 Sunday Cruising Cruising 8/26 Monday Cruising Cruising 8/27 Tuesday San Juan, Puerto Rico San Juan, Puerto Rico 8/28 Wednesday Labadee, Haiti Labadee, Haiti 8/29 Thursday Cruising Cruising 8/30 Friday Nassau, Bahamas Nassau, Bahamas 8/31 Saturday Miami, Florida Cruising 9/01 Sunday - Cruising 9/02 Monday - Cozumel, Mexico 9/03 Tuesday - Cruising 9/04 Wednesday - Miami, Florida
  7. 11 PM NHC update, nudge 36 miles further south
  8. NHC update 5 PM, another nudge southward On Friday, the ridge is forecast to begin building westward to the north of the cyclone, and this pattern is expected to cause the hurricane to turn west-northwestward. A west-northwestward to westward motion should then continue into the weekend with Dorian moving near or over the northwestern Bahamas and toward the Florida peninsula. The guidance envelope has nudged southward this cycle, with the ECMWF and HMON along the southern side, and the GFS bracketing the northern side. There has also been an increase in along-track spread or speed differences with day 5 positions among the dynamical models ranging from near the northwestern Bahamas to the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. This appears to be the result of differences in the models' depiction of the strength or lack thereof of the western portion of the ridge by day 5. The new NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged through the first 2 to 3 days, but has been adjusted southward and somewhat slower than the previous advisory at 96 and 120 hours. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, as typical forecast errors at days 4 and 5 are around 155 and 205 miles, respectively.
  9. Unfortunately, the European model has consistently been more reliable than others. Whichever way it turns, let's hope the storm moves rapidly and people can get on with their cruises.
  10. 5 PM update, latest trajectory a bit more south Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM AST Wed Aug 28 2019 The cloud pattern has become better organized with a hint of an eye on high resolution satellite imagery and plenty of convective bands. In addition, earlier data from a reconnaissance plane and surface observations from St. Thomas as Dorian moved by yield an initial intensity of 70 kt. Now that the hurricane has developed an inner core with a 15 to 20 n mi eye, strengthening is more likely. Given the favorable environment of warm waters and low shear prevailing in the western Atlantic, the NHC forecast calls for a marked intensification, and brings Dorian to category 3 intensity in 72 hours, and keeps it at that intensity until landfall. This forecast is very close to the intensity consensus, the HCCA model, and the SHIPS guidance. Satellite and earlier reconnaissance plane fixes indicate that Dorian has been moving toward the northwest or 320 degrees at 12 kt. The cyclone is heading toward a weakness in the Atlantic subtropical ridge, and this northwest motion should continue for the next 24 to 48 hours. However, after that time, all the global models continue to build a strong ridge over the western Atlantic, and this flow pattern should force Dorian to turn more to the west-northwest toward Florida. All indications are that by this Labor Day weekend, a powerful hurricane will be near or over the Florida peninsula. The new NHC track forecast is a little bit to the south of the previous one, given that global models have a stronger ridge to the north and the track models show more of a westward motion. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track, as the average 5-day track error is around 200 miles.
  11. 5 PM Update, latest trajectory a bit more south Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM AST Wed Aug 28 2019 The cloud pattern has become better organized with a hint of an eye on high resolution satellite imagery and plenty of convective bands. In addition, earlier data from a reconnaissance plane and surface observations from St. Thomas as Dorian moved by yield an initial intensity of 70 kt. Now that the hurricane has developed an inner core with a 15 to 20 n mi eye, strengthening is more likely. Given the favorable environment of warm waters and low shear prevailing in the western Atlantic, the NHC forecast calls for a marked intensification, and brings Dorian to category 3 intensity in 72 hours, and keeps it at that intensity until landfall. This forecast is very close to the intensity consensus, the HCCA model, and the SHIPS guidance. Satellite and earlier reconnaissance plane fixes indicate that Dorian has been moving toward the northwest or 320 degrees at 12 kt. The cyclone is heading toward a weakness in the Atlantic subtropical ridge, and this northwest motion should continue for the next 24 to 48 hours. However, after that time, all the global models continue to build a strong ridge over the western Atlantic, and this flow pattern should force Dorian to turn more to the west-northwest toward Florida. All indications are that by this Labor Day weekend, a powerful hurricane will be near or over the Florida peninsula. The new NHC track forecast is a little bit to the south of the previous one, given that global models have a stronger ridge to the north and the track models show more of a westward motion. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track, as the average 5-day track error is around 200 miles.
  12. 2 PM Advisory DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 65.0 West. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or two. On this track, Dorian should continue to move near or over the U.S. and British Virgin Islands this afternoon and then move over the open Atlantic well east of the southeastern Bahamas. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is forecast to continue strengthening during the next few days over the Atlantic waters. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 20 miles (30 km) to the north and east of the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) primarily to the east of the center. An elevated weather station on Buck Island just south of St. Thomas reported a sustained wind of 82 mph (132 km/h) and a gust of 111 mph (178 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure from nearby observations is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations: Northern Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches. Eastern Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the northwest Bahamas...4 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches Western Puerto Rico and the central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches Coastal sections of the Southeast United States...4 to 8 inches, isolated 10 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. WIND: Hurricane conditions are ongoing over portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands, and are expected over Vieques, Culebra, and the British Virgin Islands today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Puerto Rico this afternoon and tonight. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater.
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