The Elbe river 2024 - not just water levels

[cruisebug722]

20 minutes ago, notamermaid said:

Well, this not being my realm (Florida and the US as such) I googled Pollyanna. Happy optimistic child, right? I tentatively join and say that the river in contrast to the Danube may just about avoid flooding this time round. We will see how it goes next week as the river needs to take up what the Vltava, Otava and Berounka are bringing. And I fully admit that I had never read of the latter two before this year. Geography learning as a side effect of watching the river levels.

 

notamermaid

 

definition - spot on!

[AnhaltER1960]

13 hours ago, notamermaid said:

I tentatively join and say that the river in contrast to the Danube may just about avoid flooding this time round. We will see how it goes next week as the river needs to take up what the Vltava, Otava and Berounka are bringing. And I fully admit that I had never read of the latter two before this year. Geography learning as a side effect of watching the river levels.

 

notamermaid

 

Yes, indeed it looks like that the heaviest rainfalls are further south /southwest in Bavaria and Suebia and therefore hitting the Danube and the Rhine much harder than the Elbe. Some wave building up at the Elbe, too, but it looks like she will remain below alarming levels. The upper Elbe from the source in the Giant Mountains until the confluence with the Moldova apparently did not see much rain at all (still some low water indications in that area), the water comes from the western tributaries like the Moldova and the Ohre/Eger - the areas bordering Bavaria.

[SUBWAYMIKE]

My wife and I will be getting on Viking in Decin on June11th heading towards Berlin.

How do you think the Elbe will be then?

[AnhaltER1960]

2 hours ago, SUBWAYMIKE said:

My wife and I will be getting on Viking in Decin on June11th heading towards Berlin.

How do you think the Elbe will be then?

My best guess is "high, but navigable", unless it keeps raining like last week.

[SUBWAYMIKE]

Thanks for the quick response.

Mike

[AnhaltER1960]

On 6/2/2024 at 7:45 PM, SUBWAYMIKE said:

My wife and I will be getting on Viking in Decin on June11th heading towards Berlin.

How do you think the Elbe will be then?

A couple of days later I will rephrase: Enjoy your trip. The Elbe has peaked today at Decin and Dresden well below flood level, so everything is fine.
Just reading the Rhine and Danube threads.... wow. Sometimes the Elbe is the trouble river, but for the time being the simple and boring truth is: The Elbe is doing alright.

[notamermaid]

17 minutes ago, AnhaltER1960 said:

Sometimes the Elbe is the trouble river, but for the time being the simple and boring truth is: The Elbe is doing alright.

Thank goodness. We need the good news from the East.

 

Graph for May coming soon.

 

notamermaid

 

[notamermaid]

With the Danube and the Rhine so high, we may wonder how things developed on the Elbe. It is really curious to note that despite the weather coming from the East/Northeast and the rain drifting into the South and Southwest of Germany the rain did not hit the Elbe in a major way. It appears that the clouds decided to start emptying their load when hitting the Bavarian Forest and then really chucking it down in Germany in a spiral action, meaning the radar showed the rain clouds circulation mainly over the Danube basin and on its periphery, giving rain to the Black Forest, Swabian Alb and Lake Constance. This was the scenario at the end of May. Via the Vltava and its tributaries coming from the German border the Elbe did get quite a volume of water eventually but saw no official flooding, just a high manageable level. So to Dresden, first couple of days of May missing (sorry!):

 

Going forward, things look okay in the Czech Republic it seems and the Elbe to remain on a good level, at least going into next week.

 

notamermaid

 

 

[notamermaid]

The Elbe not having received bucket loads of water, it returned to a normal level quickly. Unfortunately, it did not stop there. It has gone down surprisingly fast within a few days and I suspect the Czech authorities have had a hand in it again. Okay for now, Dresden is at 107cm. The forecast sees the level dropping just below 100cm in the next 24 hours. But the suggestion is that this will be a dip and in another 48 hours the level should be back up and a bit higher than it is now.

 

notamermaid

 

[notamermaid]

As forecast, Dresden gauge went down, but only to 102cm, and is now rising again. Rain is forecast for Saxony.

 

notamermaid

 

[cruisebug722]

45 minutes ago, notamermaid said:

As forecast, Dresden gauge went down, but only to 102cm, and is now rising again. Rain is forecast for Saxony.

 

notamermaid

 

thanks for the updates.  The countdown is on for 7 days so hopefully I'll continue to keep the "fairies" on my shoulder and all will proceed as planned. 😊

[notamermaid]

14 hours ago, cruisebug722 said:

The countdown is on for 7 days

An exciting time and you are busy with the packing soon, I reckon. 🙂

 

Water levels will rise most likely on the Rhine, but potentially on the Danube and possibly on the Elbe. There has been some uncertainty in the last two days as to where most of the rain will come down and how much. For the Elbe it now looks to be some rain today and then, day after tomorrow, heavy rain after thunderstorms. For now it is not enough to make the level rise at Dresden much. All in all, the Elbe can take the rain and going forward into next week, could certainly do with some. Hopefully some of the rain will be along the Elbe around Ústí nad Labem. That would be better in the long term than rain around Dresden. Figure at gauge now is 111cm.

 

Have a great cruise.

 

notamermaid

 

Edited June 19 by notamermaid

[cruisebug722]

On 6/19/2024 at 8:36 AM, notamermaid said:

An exciting time and you are busy with the packing soon, I reckon. 🙂

 

Water levels will rise most likely on the Rhine, but potentially on the Danube and possibly on the Elbe. There has been some uncertainty in the last two days as to where most of the rain will come down and how much. For the Elbe it now looks to be some rain today and then, day after tomorrow, heavy rain after thunderstorms. For now it is not enough to make the level rise at Dresden much. All in all, the Elbe can take the rain and going forward into next week, could certainly do with some. Hopefully some of the rain will be along the Elbe around Ústí nad Labem. That would be better in the long term than rain around Dresden. Figure at gauge now is 111cm.

 

Have a great cruise.

 

notamermaid

 

Thanks for all you information and encouragement.  Once on the vessel we shall raise a glass to your good health.

 

[notamermaid]

16 minutes ago, cruisebug722 said:

Once on the vessel we shall raise a glass to your good health.

Thank you. 😊

 

It is indeed raining in the East of Germany, as forecast on Wednesday. Dresden gauge is now at 109cm and will probably rise to 120cm.

 

notamermaid

 

[AnhaltER1960]

Not much of the heavy rainfalls, which hit Eastern Germany recently, made it into the Bohemian Basin to feed the Elbe. So just a short peak in Dresden right now. 
But generally the Elbe remains a bit on the low side, however still navigable. Viking are the only ones to sail the Elbe at the moment and the have a planned break from mid-July into mid-September. Might just work out.

[AnhaltER1960]

Hot temperatures in the last days, no rain dried the upper reaches of the Elbe. The Moldova is still ok, but if that is enough for the Elbe sailings in the coming weeks (still two weeks to go until the summer break) can be doubted. I would not bet on that, as there is not much rain in sight for the area.
Dresden readings are below 90 cm now and do not look to stabilise, thus getting closer to the "red zone". Decin readings are low, too.

[notamermaid]

Thank you. Hmm, I also see that today that the heavy showers are focussing on Bavaria and Thuringia rather than the Elbe basin where the water is needed, i.e. upstream of Bad Schandau. The clouds should give Saxony a bit more rain tomorrow but it being so hot I am sure you are right in that this may prove too little.

 

notamermaid