poll -- newbuilds

[meow!]

In your opinion, for ANY cruise line, ordering large newbuilds last year (at the peak of the market) is

1. best timing

2. good timing

3. fair timing

4. poor timing

[meow!]

Any more votes?

[Friscorays]

It seems that many, if not all, cruise lines are having trouble filling the cabins that they already have given the current financial climate.

 

I am curious as to the reasoning for the votes in the catagories other than "poor timing." I am sincerely curious as to what I am missing. Is the thinking that this is only a temporary blip and that all will be back to "normal" in a year or two?

[Druke I]

I think it was "fair timing". I don't think their (cruise line) honchos' crystal ball is any more accurate than anyone else's.

 

Few of us really realized how bad the economic situation was early in 2008.

 

Remaining optimistic, I do think the economy will turn around, given enough time.

[meow!]

... 12% of the affluent households are planning to cruise within the next year. That is down from 22% (typical range is 15 to 19%). That's a 45% decrease in cruises among the affluent. That is a pretty sharp drop and explains discounting on the more expensive cruises. I guess for some of us, those seeking bargains, that is good news.

 

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The above is copied and pasted from a posting in the Celebrity column of this board, quoting information from Seatrade magazine. Many lines, including Celebrity, Oceania and Silversea have ordered newbuilds substantially increasing their berths at top of the market prices. While this is good for the shipyards, (and good for us passengers in the form of discounts), if the economy does not turn around soon enough, what will happen to the cruise industry? Over-expansionism has been a perenial problem for businesses, and the timing of when to expand is often cruicial to success. While nobody has a perfect crystal ball, it depends a lot on luck, but prudence in not overdoing it when a business decides to expand is important too. If the former Renaissance was careful in adding one ship every other year and not several ships in a year right before the turn of the century, it might not have collapsed!