First Tropical Storm (Adrian) of the Season

do you think this will affect the Legend cruise from new york that leave this saturday to the easter caribean?

And so it begins

and im leaving sunday oh boy better buy the patch!!!!!

Now what exactly is a tropical depression versus a hurricane?

Tropical Wave: A cluster of clouds and/or thunderstorm without a significant circulation and generally moving from east to west through the Tropics.

Tropical Depression: A cluster of clouds and/or thunderstorm without a significant circulation and substained wind speeds of less than 39mph.

Tropical Storm: An organized system of strong thunderstorms with top sustained winds of 39mph to 73mph. Tropical storms can quickly develop into hurricanes. Storms are named when they reach tropical storm strength.

Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the specified area of warning, within 36hours.

Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the specified area of warning, within 24 hours.

Hurricane: An intense tropical weather system with a sustained wind speed of 74mph or higher.

Hurricane Watch: Hurricane Conditions are expected in the specified area of the warning within 36 hours. During a hurricane watch, prepare to take immediate action to protect your family and property in case a hurricane warning is issued.

Hurricane Warning: Hurricane Conditions are expected in the specified area of the warning within 24 hours. Complete all storm preparations and immediately follow local emergency management officials' advice about evacuation.

Tornado: Tornados ocur ususally in severe thunderstroms when wind changes direction and height, causing rotation. Windspeeds range from 40mph to 318mph. Landfalling rainbands.

Oh thats not good.:(

I wouldn't be too worried -- there are alot of odds against Adrian right now.... he needs to make it through the terrain in central america (there are some mountains there) -- hopefully it is a dry storm if not it could be deadly for those that live there....

if not cuba will tear it up..... too....

Lets hope we dont see too many of these names this year

2005 Hurricane Names

Atlantic Names

Arlene

Bret

Cindy

Dennis

Emily

Franklin

Gert

Harvey

Irene

Jose

Katrina

Lee

Maria

Nate

Ophelia

Philippe

Rita

Stan

Tammy

Vince

Wilma

Eastern North Pacific Names

Adrian

Beatriz

Calvin

Dora

Eugene

Fernanda

Greg

Hilary

Irwin

Jova

Kenneth

Lidia

Max

Norma

Otis

Pilar

Ramon

Selma

Todd

Veronica

Wiley

Xina

York

Zelda

And so it begins

Ain't that the truth?

That's early this year - I thought hurricane/tropical storm season didn't start until June!

I wouldn't be too worried -- there are alot of odds against Adrian right now.... he needs to make it through the terrain in central america (there are some mountains there) -- hopefully it is a dry storm if not it could be deadly for those that live there....

 

if not cuba will tear it up..... too....

Computer models have been forecasting this storm to cross central America for days. This morning, several models are all calling for this to make it in to the Caribbean, possibly as a tropical depression. On Monday, the US's Global Forecast Model called for a tropical low to hit western Cuba. The European and Navy models have also been consistant on this system.

Very heavy rainfall is likely in Central America as this is a wet system and the mountians will only help produce life threatening flooding and mudslides.

one day...how many more to go???

That's early this year - I thought hurricane/tropical storm season didn't start until June!

Hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific basin starts May 15. It starts June 1 for teh Atlantic basin. This storm is an eastern pacific storm, even though it will likely cross over to the Atlantic basin. The season is not a hard rule. A couple of years ago there was an April hurricane in the Atlantic.

Oh no!! I was hoping I would slide by at the end of July, even though there are storms the really bad ones don't tend to surface until August (except last year). This is May!!! :(

Okay, tropical depression doesn't sound bad.

I too am sailing the end of the month. Thought it was mainly the end of the summertime.

Hurricane season in the Eastern Pacific basin starts May 15. It starts June 1 for teh Atlantic basin. This storm is an eastern pacific storm, even though it will likely cross over to the Atlantic basin. The season is not a hard rule. A couple of years ago there was an April hurricane in the Atlantic.

Thanks gtalum - I never knew that. I always thought it was June - December.

Didn't someone say this season would be a nasty one hurricane-wise (but of course they ALWAYS say that).

We are scheduled to sail on the Sensation on Saturday, then be in Costa Maya on Monday and Cozumel on Tuesday. Do you think this storm will bother us or be farther to the east?

Figures- we always cruise in September and October- never hit any storms- now I cruise in May and boom! Trouble!!!

Great! We are leaving on the Valor on Sunday. Right to the Bahamas on Monday. Hope Adrian slows down by then!

Kristin

Looks like it's heading north - northeast so I think the Legend (E.Carribean) looks safe. One website showed it in Grand Cayman (W.Carribean) on Monday. Too early to tell. It'll probably break up over the mountains...

The USA's Global Model clearly shows some sort of low approaching the southern coast of Cuba on Saturday morning. Whatever is left of it (National Hurricane Center says it could still be a tropical depression)...the models all show it...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_084s.gif

If this system holds together as a tropical system, it will be the first time since 1966 (when satellite pictures began in the Pacific) that a tropical storm/depression has crossed from the Pacific into the Atlantic in this manner.

Meanwhile, a different system (not tropical in nature-but sure wet) continues to dump heavy rain and cause flash flooding in P. Rico and the USVI.

Latest radar...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p19r0/si.tjua.shtml

I kind of like these:

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/novnonactive/mexicosatellite_large_animated.html

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/novnonactive/tropicaldevelopmentpotential_large.html

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/novnonactive/tropicalatlanticsatellite_large_animated.html

From Punta Gorda, not looking forward to the start of this after Charley!

:D 2boyzmom, I like your optimistic attitude!! I'm with you, we are going to be fine!! With all of my prayers we are bound to have smoothe sailing!!

I'm a bit of a control freak- but one thing I know I absolutely CANNOT change is the weather! So- let's party everyone!

PS- my neighbors were on board last year during a huge hurricane and landed up going to better ports than planned!! I'm hoping to bypass San Juan and go south south south...