notamermaid

I would have a look at https://www.wetteronline.de/ Go to "Vorhersage". Or type in a major town in the search field at the top. The four day forecast is fairly reliable, eight day is also usually okay. The forecast - computer modelling - for Maxau gauge (at Karlsruhe) suggests a reaction to rain but only in so far as that the Upper Rhine valley should be able to retain the level. If no rain was predicted the level would fall. notamermaid

Riviera Travel will be offering itineraries on a new ship on the Douro next year: https://travelweekly.co.uk/news/tourism/riviera-travel-deploys-new-ship-on-douro notamermaid

I agree. It works really well, most of the time, but also seeing that in a ship swap you normally miss the scenic sailing of the Rhine Gorge, it does impact the cruise. A passenger should always be informed about that possibility in my opinion. And reimbursed for it. What I object to is making the ship swap so long that it cuts out cruising a lot, meaning ports can only be reached by coach, i.e. going to Koblenz, using a coach, getting on the other ship at Rüdesheim I find acceptable as long as the passenger knows of this potential situation before he embarks. Going from Worms to Rüdesheim, returning, going to Cologne by coach the next day to swap to the ship, is not my idea of a cruise. This is what has been done by Viking - it may have been done by others since that awful autumn in 2018 - but in that year when things came to a standstill river cruises were actually cancelled. Personally, I do not like to think back to that year. Apart from seeing "my" river decline dramatically (shocking somewhat), I answered so many question of river cruisers that felt uninformed, bewildered, often completely oblivious to such a scenario being possible and left in the dark (in their opinion) by the cruise company. Not fun. In my opinion, information policy has really improved since then. And more travel websites are mentioning the topic when it arises. People are more aware. I do not like the alarmist headlines one can read occasionally but it certainly appears that people prefer to be informed beforehand rather than meet the problem when it arises, i.e. when they get to the ship in Amsterdam and realize it is a different one as the previous passengers did a ship swap (or similar scenario). That is the impression I got in 2018 and it has remained so since. notamermaid

That is lovely to read. Sounds like there may be another river cruise for you in the future. Cruising around Deutsches Eck is great, I agree. I only know daytime, would love to see it at sunrise. notamermaid

I would not call the 90cm a crucial figure for sailing or not sailing. From what we have experienced over the last few years we can see this number as one that may see - or soon see - adjustments in docking locations, slower sailing, meaning something river cruisers "can live with" but it is a figure to watch and one may prefer to not see a further decline. All in all I would say decisions for or against sailing are made closer to the 70cm than the 90cm. Ships can sail below 70cm, other companies tend to sail with their 135m ships when the figures are just that bit lower than Viking but, again, it is the decision of each captain - or in more and more situations the choice of the captains on the corresponding ships that prepare for the swap. 70cm is not the figure at which 135m ships stop sailing automatically. The ship swap is quite honestly a great idea in my opinion and now usually works very smoothly. It may happen at 68cm, or 66cm, or 64cm... It tends to be just the Rhine Gorge that needs "bridging" but it can be more. 2018 was an abysmal year and if you want to subject yourself to that type of drama the thread for 2018 is a fascinating read. But, you have been warned... The title of the thread is the same as this one, just exchange the year. notamermaid

Okay, change in the weather pattern and substantially adjusted forecast for Kaub - including long term forecast. We see a bigger drop than was anticipated three days ago. No need to panic but I need to be honest in that the level will most likely fall below 100cm on Saturday with Sunday or Monday showing the lowest level (which may or may not be around 90cm). Tuesday may see the beginning of a rise. notamermaid

Thanks. That reminds me, I saw that explained in a great drawing, i.e. of a ship set in water and what the physics are, some time ago. So, all the parametres worked for the Spirit of the Danube. She successfully completed the passage from Straubing to Passau during the night! Great news, and confirmation that modern 135m river cruise ships - at least this one - can sail past Pfelling at a figure of 268cm. Again, it is an individual decision and it does not mean that a similar ship or even the Spirit of the Danube will do the upstream passage at that figure. Pfelling at 266cm. notamermaid

Right, we have established that things are looking promising for your departure date. But you asked two interesting questions. I admit they are proving a challenge for this amateur girl so I hope I can get close to answering them. A drop in a week can be huge. As I have mentioned in a previous post, the drop tends to be bigger overall when the figures are higher, i.e. the water level is high, which is roughly seasonal of course - this is a generalization, not a gospel. If I say a drop of 100cm is possible that may cause an unnecessary concern, seeing that you are wondering about a cruise in a relative low water situation. If we look at a past month when we were at this kind of level it looked like this, as an example. This is Kaub in August 2020: As regards the longest stretch of days without a rise: there is always a bit of fluctuation and a small rise can occur from day to day, but if we look at this from the perspective of river cruising and choose figures that are below 80cm at Kaub for a long time then 2018 is probably the worst year overall and there I have counted the days in the table, not all of them just the longest stretch in that year of consecutive days under 80cm. Get the brandy ready and sit down... It ran from end of September until beginning of December - 67 days. notamermaid

Thanks for bringing up the topic of dates. I think this looks right. Some can be open before 30 November but if one does not feel like researching every single port that time frame is a good one to go for. notamermaid

On the other side of the Pfelling gauge I happened to spot the "Spirit of the Danube" when preparing the screenshot above. She is at Straubing. What makes it highly interesting is the fact that she is 135m long. Will she sail through the shallow stretch past the lock at Straubing and onto Vilshofen? Again, one can track that ship to find out. Not all 135m ships are the same so it will vary in what the respective captain judges to be the safe figure for passage past Pfelling. notamermaid

Brief answer for the time being: Not the only one, but the "worst" one. Yes, some ships can manage. Barges, tankers at reduced load. Smaller river cruise ships. Try using a tracker. marinetraffic.com, via the search field find the Amadeus Princess. That is this one, info from company website: https://www.amadeus-rivercruises.com/our-amadeus-fleet/detail/amadeus-princess.html When the ship info pops up on marinetraffic, go on past track. You can always see a 24 hour track (if the signal is strong enough). She is currently in the shallow section upstream from Deggendorf, sailing towards Bogen (where the Pfelling gauge is located): When she has made it past Straubing she will have successfully completed the journey through the shallow section. notamermaid

Sorry, that should read Diemel. It is a tributary of the Weser. notamermaid

Before I get to back to historic water levels - question posted by MamaMags123 - here is the Niedrigwasserbericht of the authorities. This is an elaborate report, regularly updated every week if necessary, to describe the low water situation in Germany. Basically it says in its 2nd update that although there has been rain the rivers are too low for the season overall and the weather this week will not bring any real change to the situation. It also notes that the rivers are warmer than is normal at this time of year. Just ignore all the text if you are not familiar with German, but have a look at the photo: https://www.bafg.de/DE/07_Nachrichten/230713_nw-bericht.pdf?__blob=publicationFile This is the mouth of the Moselle at Koblenz, looking upstream at the dam and wall of the lock. The river flows freely on this short stretch towards the Rhine of course so the two rivers react here and the Moselle is low when the Rhine is very low. This can be tricky for docking at Koblenz on the Moselle side. As far as I know in the current conditions this is still fine. This Google maps section should help to illustrate: You can see the ships docked at Peter-Altmeier-Ufer. At the dam/weir is an information centre on river fauna, called Mosellum Erlebniswelt. notamermaid

Have fun, some great itineraries out there during December. Good to hear your insurance covers the cancellation. Just a note: you will readily find the other North-American companies during research, but you may want to compare their offers to the European lines like Riviera Travel, Arosa and Viva Cruises. Or even CroisiEurope if you like French style. notamermaid

I do keep things close to my chest a lot of the time, but did not want to sound mysterious. A bit of a coincidence this time. Well, I have returned from the tour de force, meaning my travel companions forced me to go up hills and I am truly feeling it. Best to give up trying to keep up with the youngest in my group with the long legs and much younger in years... The river: the Deimel. Not even big enough to put a narrowboat on. That is the biggest one I remember the name of. Had a good time, saw interesting places and had a few surprises (able to handle them all, from getting lost in roadworks to huge spider in the hotel room). No area worthy of long excursion from river cruise but interesting if you want to be off the beaten international tourist track. More on that another day. Rest of holiday will be used for rest and day trips. notamermaid

Kaub gauge better than had been forecast - it is at 139cm. notamermaid

The maximum is easy to say. It is the figure set by the authorities, the official ban on river traffic. Depending on stretch. For the section that includes Kaub it is 640cm. The minimum is decided by the captain of each individual ship - to give you an idea, we can more or less say that such a ship of 135m length at Kaub can sail at 90cm and cannot sail at 40cm. There is no ban on river traffic in drought. notamermaid

Sounds as if you are a bit daunted by the upcoming trip. Fully understandable. I am sure you have planned everything well that can be planned. Everything else will happen just fine. Have a great time. notamermaid

A standard occurrence with the company and a not untypical reply from the company. My recommendation if you are concerned about health issues is to choose a different company. So many choices out there. Bear in mind that Viking can legally not do this in Europe... Oh, and get good travel insurance that is independent from the tour operator. notamermaid

All three ships are still in a winter harbour on the Waal (Rhine). I suppose it means they have not sailed this year yet? notamermaid

Perhaps a misunderstanding then. Sorry. Every gauge is its own thing, so we need to calculate. At Pfelling 290cm has been given by an authorities' spokesperson as the figure that can cause problems for passage for the large river cruise ships. The river depth and the navigation channel depth are different figures, so for ships it means that at 290cm the navigation channel has a depth of 190cm - basically. The river is not regulated by a lock there, meaning we have no effect of a dam that could keep the level high enough. There exists no long range forecast, so we need to look at computer modelling further upstream to what may happen further than 36 hours into the future. A factor that makes the situation more unpredictable are the two locks upstream from Pfelling. Water can be retained and take a few centimetres off the reading at Pfelling. A captain needs to calculate the time needed to get through the shallow section and upstream and downstream direction make a difference, too. All factors thrown into the mix - including draft of the indivdual ship - make the decision for or against sailing. This decision could literally be made just a few hours before you are due to sail the stretch of river. Pfelling gauge at 265cm. notamermaid

Pfelling gauge at 283cm. Running above the forecast a little. A good sign? I doubt it, the forecast at Kelheim does not indicate high volumes of water. Happy to be proven otherwise. notamermaid

Peak at Kaub gauge earlier this morning. Now at 150cm. 135cm forecast for tomorrow morning. notamermaid

That is probably the best thing to do. Could not find out in the German website as such but did find info that children get reduction on some cruises (prices info boxes in the download catalogue). Which would suggest that children of all ages are okay. But best to check for the itinerary you are looking at. notamermaid

Had a thought - historic water levels. Perhaps it is helpful to understand that drops in river level at Kaub vary during the year. A drop when being on high figures is faster than a drop when being on low figures. You are faster down from 200cm to 150cm than you are from 150cm to 100cm. It again slows down a bit more with figures under 100cm. notamermaid