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About UnorigionalName

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  1. Do you have your Korea's mixed up? South Korea, which pretty successfully dealt with the virus is an open democracy, not like North Korea, where no one knows what's happening with regards to COVID. Their economy has mostly been open, with only select closing. https://theprint.in/world/south-korea-crushed-huge-virus-outbreak-without-lockdown-but-a-second-wave-could-be-trickier/440796/ PS. if you look at international news or ask people internationally, because of COVID US is like, now laughingstock of the world.
  2. Lol, and with what money will Celebrity be able to operate without revenue generating cruises.
  3. Peaceful protests are a constitutionally protected right, and it would require extraordinary measures to disrupt that right. Eating out at restaurants, going to bars, and getting your hair cut is not a constitutionally protected right. It's not that it's peaceful protests are hunky dory, it's that the relative risk (outdoors spread if everyone wears masks may turn out to be relatively low), was not worth violating this constitutional right. The albeit limited data that has come out has shown that protests seem to be linked with a low chance of infection. It is true that young people are driving up the current numbers, but it does not seem to be from protests. Again, correlation does not equal causation. It's like saying: young people are more likely to be infected. Young people are the ones listening to Taylor Swift, therefore listening to taylor swift causes COVID infections. It seems more that young people are 1) essential workers that cannot work from home and need money to live, 2) engaging in relatively higher risk behaviors since their personal risk is low (bars, restaurants), and 3) having get togethers in large numbers in private places.
  4. The thought is that smaller droplets travel further, but dry out easier. And when they dry out the virus becomes less viable over time. And big droplets protect the virus, but don't travel as far. That's where all the stuff saying "6-feet" came from, this person in like the 70's thought that's as far as droplets can go. It turns out it's not that simple, that there's not this dichotomy, and that live viruses can actually travel pretty far. When you breath or sing or sneeze or cough, the small droplets travel together in this nice warm humid cloud and protect each other from drying out, so they remain viable for a good amount of time and can travel pretty far. Also why it's thought now that outdoors is relatively low risk, because of more wind blowing apart and drying out these humid virus clouds, instead of nice still indoor air where it can waft around, and UV to rapidly kill the viral particles. So that's why the thought of getting sucked into HVAC, and live particles coming out the other side seems unlikely. The particles will dry out pretty quickly, no matter the size, and it seems currently unlikely for COVID to get transmitted this way, though there are other infectious agents that definitely can travel through HVAC. Really though, this shouldn't be taken as a comforting fact for returning to cruising, because it means all these uncontrollable outbreaks on cruise ships is happening despite the fact that it's not from going in and out of the HVAC, it doesn't need to, it's pretty freaking infectious already.
  5. I don't buy that line of reasoning. Look at like, the vast majority of the rest of the world other than the "special" countries (US, Russia, Brazil, Sweden) Dozens upon dozens of countries, ranging from east asia, south east asia, western europe, asutralia/NZ, with vastly different cultures and different governments, and they all managed to actually do something. like, i don't think the fact there are 50 states is the problem, it's that all 50 states have basically the same people.
  6. why do you say that? the results in the field at every step have been pretty promising and multiple vaccine candidate are chugging along nicely. All the experts are saying that it should be technically feasible for COVID. If the spike protein mutates, it's not a big deal with the main current vaccine candidates, won't take long at all to make another one. a few a year is completely feasible, especially with the astrazeneca and china ones. If it requires more than one shot, then it'll require more than one shot, don't see why everyone sees this as a flaw...
  7. I like how everyone these days is now an expert in virology and immunology (as well as epidmiology and infectious disease). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immunosenescence
  8. I don't think there is any data that supports that view. I think all data (too lazy to look up other sources right now) that I've seen is that asians actually have slightly worse outcomes than caucasians. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/racial-ethnic-minorities.html Also, if you look at the growth rate of the disease in the early course of the outbreaks, most countries including the asian countries had a similar early slope (ie R0) at the outset. It's probably going to end up a combination of masks, and just greater social awareness and cultural respect for their fellow human being. Can't attribute it all to government, as Japan has a notoriously useless central government, and their cases are burning out without the government needing to do much at all. Here in the states we get news about people getting attacked for wearing masks. In Japan they get news like this: https://www.foxnews.com/world/coronavirus-outbreak-japan-train-delay
  9. my prediction is jan 2021. i feel like no mater what the evidence is, the WH will push through a vaccine before Nov. elections. few weeks for first responders, few weeks for high risk, then few weeks for everyone, few weeks to start up ships.
  10. US is first in line. pouring money everywhere. The manufacturing of the astrezeneca vaccine is i believe more straightforward than the moderna vaccine. They are pouring crazy money in and plan to have several hundred million doses is what they report by like winter. US is fronting all the money, so they've claimed the first several hundred million. They've said will give to health care workers and front line responders first. But I believe they are building out manufacturing for billions worth of doses, so it should be fairly rapid for everyone else.
  11. For those of you optimists who expect to cruise in October: What do you forsee as being different between now and October that will allow cruises to go forth? You think the CDC will just give up and throw up their hands and be like, you know what, y'all can get sick, we DGAF anymore, go do whatever you want. You think there will be a second lockdown that will be even more strict and longer than the first to get cases to a trackable level? I don't see that happening in the current political climate You think that there will be such an explosion of cases that 85+% of the country will get infected by October and we will have herd immunity? Don't think anyone even dreams that any of the vaccines will be released in October Nothing gamechanging on the treatment side, maybe slight improvements here or there.
  12. I would guess 50/50. The US completely failed and gave up on lock down. When the second wave (or really in many places wave 1.5) starts ramping up, things are going to get ugly. Not much support right now for lockdown #2, but that may change as deaths start really ramping up. I think the more realistic thing than Americans practicing basic courtesy and wearing masks and being cognizant of their neighbors, is that the government will basically just blast through phase 3 testing on the moderna and astrazeneca vaccine when it gets closer and closer to election day, and release millions of doses of half-tested vaccines and let everything sort itself out in Phase 4. I give probably better than 50/50 chance for one of these 2 vaccines to work. A lot of the data coming back on COVID is promising in terms of vaccination. A lot of the early fears appear to not be an issue compared to SARS. If plans go right then the US should have several hundred million doses by 2021 and there's a chance by Feb things will be back open. edit: as a side note, I am especially hoping the moderna vaccine works and shows low complications in phase 4. And in any event hoping either astrazeneca or moderna vaccine work in general. Those methods are super novel, and if they work, it'll be a great leap in the arsenal for future pandemics.
  13. +1 I aim for the middle, with sports jacket, but mostly so I don't stand out. My goal is to not be noticed, but that doesn't mean I support formal night. I wouldn't say I enjoy dressing up, but it's not like it's a horrible nuisance. I would rather it go away though, like the relic of the times it is. I feel like the majority of people not on these boards are similar. The majority in general don't want to offend, but I doubt many these days especially newer cruisers care for it.
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