TS / (Hurricane?) Isaac

[tbjl24]

The Keys are getting hammered... outer bands already????

 

 

No that is a separate unrelated system due to a drop in the jet stream.

[Scott34787]

No that is a separate unrelated system due to a drop in the jet stream.

 

Wow - they are going to be doing the Duval Crawl in boats!

[Scott34787]

Isaac forecast to be a Cat 2 by US Mainland landfall ! :eek:

[viberama]

Anyone call Carnival yet to see what their plans are for the rest of the weekend cruise ships departing?

[ThinkingWoman]

From the Carnival website. http://www.carnival.com/core/faq.aspx#q-1235022

 

They have their act together on getting info out once they have something definitive. Pity weather doesn't conform to our needs for timeliness. [/sarc]

[Scott34787]

If I coded it right this link has all the latest updates:

http://www.carnival.com/core/faq.aspx#q-1235022

 

Or goto http://carnival.com - click the yellow

weather alert button in the top left of the screen

select Tropical Storm Isaac - Itinerary Updates

[ThinkingWoman]

Scott,

 

Jinx! You owe me a Coke!

[Scott34787]

Scott,

 

Jinx! You owe me a Coke!

 

No Coke, Pepsi :D

 

 

Good map showing forecast track and intensity:

 

[chantal13]

PORT OF TAMPA - Due to the potential impact of Tropical Storm Isaac, no vessels, including cruise ships and cargo, will be allowed to move through the Port of Tampa.

A “Condition X-ray” was issued by the U.S. Coast Guard at 9:00 a.m. Saturday, and the decision was handed down that no traffic will pass through the Port of Tampa after 3:00 a.m. Sunday.

Carnival, which is the only cruise line to run out of the port in the summer, had cruises scheduled for Saturday and Sunday.

Anyone scheduled to board Sunday’s cruise, the Carnival Legend, should get in contact with the cruise line immediately, as it will not be allowed through the port.

The Tampa Port Authority, in conjunction with the Port Heavy Weather Advisory Group continues to monitor Isaac.

No changes are expected to be made unless there is a significant change in storm path or intensity.

 

 

Read more: http://www.abcactionnews.com/dpp/news/region_tampa/port-of-tampa-to-be-closed-to-cruises-all-other-vessels--due-to-tropical-storm-isaac#ixzz24aWTs73V

[keystonemama]

My daddy taught me well on predicting these hurricanes, thought it was going to be a 2 by the time it reached us and now its true, :confused:, hopefully it stays west toward Mobile, not wishing them harm but we have had enough rain...hope the Keys fair well, hoping to vacay there in Dec....this could be an interesting cam to watch during the hurricane, underwater.....this is precisely why I don't cruise in Aug nor Sept. too much hassle.....btw my gutters are good to go and I'm stocked up on beer, margarita's and screwdrivers.....:D

 

 

http://www.floridakeyswebcams.tv/teens4oceans/

[Scott34787]

My daddy taught me well on predicting these hurricanes, thought it was going to be a 2 by the time it reached us and now its true, :confused:

 

Good call -

The new forecast track has it skirting along Cuba's north coast

instead of going up the middle.

Less interaction with land + more interaction with warm

water = Bigger Storm :eek:

[keystonemama]

[/color][/b]

 

Good call -

 

The new forecast track has it skirting along Cuba's north coast

instead of going up the middle.

 

Less interaction with land + more interaction with warm

water = Bigger Storm :eek:

 

Correct, they hardly ever travel over the length of Cuba, stay safe!

[Scott34787]

5pm Update - 8/25

 

 

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 19

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012

500 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012

 

THE CENTER OF ISAAC IS CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF

EASTERN CUBA. THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE IS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...

WITH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS 50 N MI OR MORE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL

CENTER. ......

 

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS

REPORTED 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 56 KT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE

CENTER...WITH RELIABLE-LOOKING SFMR SURFACE WIND DATA NEAR 50 KT.

BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT. THE CENTRAL

PRESSURE OF 997 MB IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF AIRCRAFT DATA AND

CUBAN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.....

 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 310/18. ISAAC IS CURRENTLY PART OF A

LARGE LOW/MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COVERING THE NORTHWESTERN

CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT LAND AND OCEAN AREAS. THIS LOW

PRESSURE AREA HAS A SECOND VORTICITY CENTER BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE

CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR ISAAC AND THIS CENTER

WILL LIKELY ROTATE AROUND EACH OTHER. BASED ON THIS EXPECTATION...

 

THE FORECAST TRACK SHOWS ISAAC MOVING NORTHWESTWARD FOR 12 HR OR

SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. IT IS POSSIBLE

THE STORM COULD MAKE A SHARPER TURN THAN FORECAST...

 

AS THE UKMET IS SHOWING AN ALMOST DUE WEST MOTION BETWEEN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND CUBA

NEAR THE 36 HR POINT. THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS

SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST......

 

..BUT STILL LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE BULK OF THE

DYNAMICAL MODELS. AFTER 36 HR...ISAAC SHOULD BREAK FREE OF OR

ABSORB THE REST OF THE LOW...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST

BECOMING THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE.

 

THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE STORM TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE

NORTHWEST AND NORTH OVER THE

EASTERN AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO....

 

..WITH AN EVENTUAL LANDFALL

ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN 72-96 HR. WHERE THIS MIGHT OCCUR

IS STILL RATHER UNCERTAIN...WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE SPREAD BETWEEN

SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

 

THIS PART OF THE TRACK FORECAST LIES IN THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE

NEAR THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

 

A COMBINATION OF LIGHT WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND

INTERACTION SHOULD AT LEAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 12

HR. AFTER THAT...THE SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH WHILE THE CYCLONE

REACHES OPEN WATER....

 

THIS SHOULD ALLOW ISAAC TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN

INTO A HURRICANE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN

GULF OF MEXICO.

 

THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE

PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE INTENSITY

CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE

FORECASTING A VERY FAVORABLE PATTERN OF UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE

NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 72 HR. SHOULD THIS VERIFY AND SHOULD

ISAAC ESTABLISH AN INNER CORE...

 

THE CYCLONE COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY

STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

 

IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF ISA

AC DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND THE FACT THAT ISAAC HAS A LARGE

AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

[Lovefuninthesun]

DS and DIL live in Naples, with their brand new baby (only 1 week old!) -- they are getting prepared, and a little nervous with a tiny baby! I told them to come up here as I think we will only get rain in Tampa now.

[Scott34787]

A good map I found for rainfall predictions:

 

[MMOMOM]

More concerned with what is going to happen more inland with Issac right now ... even tho we are cruising in a few weeks ... selfishly, I'm sorry to say:rolleyes: We had some very bad thunderstorms here in GA in July ... had a lightning surge/hit and lots of damage ... although we're blessed, it could have been much worse! BUT .... we just got everything repaired, up and running, landscaping looks great, pool is all set, looking good and WARM. My daughter, her husband and our 2 granddaughters are due here over Labor Day weekend. They just moved to Denver a few months ago and are looking forward to hanging outside on the patio and in the pool, grilling and all that good stuff. With the predictions now, it's looking like all you know what could let loose here like about Wednesday and Thursday ... they arrive Saturday morning. I'm envisioning more of the same mess we dealt with last month!!:eek: So, even tho it's not likely, I'm hoping Issac could do a little 'poop out and fizzle' thing!:D In any event, praying and sending good thoughts for all those in the path .... stay safe!!:)

[toribug]

:( We have to drive from louisville Ky to New Orleans la. We cannot leave till 2pm Wed and were planning on driving 9hrs making it 2hrs out of New Orleans.We are due to board Thurs for a 4 day cruise. Now I am not sure what's going to happen. I know the models show it making landfall Tues night/wed morning but we would still have to drive thru the bands and that's even if the port is still open. Worried about flooding, etc that we may incounter on our way down. Any suggestions, have any of you have to cancel and use your trip insurance? We are taking our teens, if it was just us, I would take an extra day off and leave Tues and drive 1/2 way before it hits. Worried that it may be a major player. I was in David back in the 70's and still remember it today

[Drew's Wife]

DS and DIL live in Naples, with their brand new baby (only 1 week old!) -- they are getting prepared, and a little nervous with a tiny baby! I told them to come up here as I think we will only get rain in Tampa now.

 

 

Oh, I do hope they decide to leave and come to be with you....That area may get hit hard, and your son and DIL could probably use some help with a newborn....prayers for their safety.

[Scott34787]

11pm Advisory - 8/25

 

 

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 20

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012

1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012

 

SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA FROM CUBA SHOW THAT ISAAC IS MOVING

PARALLEL TO...BUT OFFSHORE OF...THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA.

THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DID NOT FIND ANY STRONGER WINDS

DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FLIGHT AND THE INITIAL WIND

SPEED REMAINS 50 KT. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS

INCREASED IN A BAND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER DURING

THE PAST FEW HOURS AND ISAAC MAY BE ON THE VERGE OF STRENGTHENING.

THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE CYCLONE

AROUND 0600 UTC.

 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/15 KT. ISAAC SHOULD CONTINUE ON

A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24

HOURS OR SO BETWEEN A LARGE LOW/MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER

THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE

WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DURING

THIS TIME AND SHOWS A TRACK OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND NEAR OR

OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...

 

ISAAC WILL BE NEARING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE AND SHOULD MOVE IN A GENERAL

NORTHWESTWARD HEADING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

 

BUT LARGE DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS MODELS AFTER

THAT TIME. THE ECMWF RECURVES ISAAC AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE

TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...

 

WHILE THE GFS SLOWS ISAAC DOWN AS THE TROUGH BYPASSES THE SYSTEM AND THE MODEL THEN TURNS

THE CYCLONE WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING MID- TO

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS BIFURCATION IS ALSO SEEN IN THE MOST RECENT

ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES WITH ABOUT AN EQUAL NUMBER OF MEMBERS

SHOWING RECURVATURE VERSUS A CONTINUE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK TOWARD

THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

 

SINCE THE UNCERTAINTY IS LARGE AND EITHER OF THESE SCENARIOS ARE POSSIBLE

AT THIS TIME...THE NHC FORECAST IS LIES BETWEEN THEM. THE UPDATED TRACK IS

VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...

THE TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WESTWARD...BUT IT REMAINS EAST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL

CONSENSUS TO RETAIN SOME CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

 

THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR

STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS ISAAC MOVES OVER

THE WARM WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND EASTERN GULF. STEADY

STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR

HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN THE CENTER REACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS.

 

ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY WHILE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE

EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE

HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BETWEEN THE SHIPS/LGEM

GUIDANCE AND THE MORE AGGRESSIVE HWRF MODEL.

 

IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE

SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER. SINCE LARGE

UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...IT

IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN ISAAC WILL MAKE

LANDFALL ALONG THE GULF COAST.

[Drew's Wife]

We have been working all day to get things in place where know we can find certain items. We bought two footlockers and they are great to store all the extras that you need. One is for canned goods and the other one is for all our hurricane supplies, that one might need in a crisis situation.

Our hurricane shutters are ready to go up as soon as we think we need them...all lawn furniture, flowers pots, etc have been put away,,last after I had finished cleaning today, we did a new video tape of the whole house and it's contents for insurance purposes. Everything was video taped from my jewlery, to the firearms, the cars, even my closet of evening gowns. We had an older tape, but last year we remodeled the house and everything is new....even brought in a new sofa yesterday, so I just wanted to be safe in case there might be potential problems with the insurance company.

Everyone stay safe, leave if you have to, but don't wait to late. Nothing worse than being caught in a hurricane evacutation that is just at a standstill. Might as well sit tight and wait it out if you leave too late. Prayers for everyone for safety in the coming days.

[mousey]

Safe travels to those leaving on their cruise!

We will be thinking of you and sending happy

thoughts your way.

 

Anyone who has Internet access on-board,

please update us and let us know how the

conditions are and how the cruise is going.

 

Stay positive and enjoy the adventure!

 

 

Ditto!

[maxandmolly]

Most of the Tampa local stations are still projecting further east than the middle of the cone. Channel 8 was the station to get Charlie's track right hours before the other channels. Channels 8 & 10 are both saying further east than the current general prediction. Maybe I'll get that day off after all.

[Scott34787]

[thinkpink]

I think we just got the start of the smaller outter squalls.

[happylady]

I think we just got the start of the smaller outter squalls.

 

We're about 20 minutes north of you and one of the first outer bands is moving through our area right now.

 

Those that have never been through a hurricane are unaware of how large they can be. Even though we are 4 1/2 hours north of Key West, we are expecting 50-60 MPH wind gusts. We also have a 90% probability of tornadoes in Palm Beach County.:eek: