Tropical Storm Vince

[vicocala]

The tropical storm season seems to be winding down as these storms that are developing are becoming weaker in nature. With this storm being over water cooler than 28-30 degrees C and its expected track, it probably won't affect anyone but I thought I should add it for continuities sake. Hopefully my first sentance will hold true and we won't have any or many more storms but the season will continue thru November so we need to stay alert.

 

TROPICAL STORM VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005

 

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF NON-TROPICAL ORIGIN THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY

STATIONARY IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... IN BETWEEN THE AZORES AND

THE CANARY ISLANDS... HAS BEEN ACQUIRING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS

DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS OR SO. WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM IS NOW A

TROPICAL OR A SUBTROPICAL STORM IS SOMEWHAT OF A SUBJECTIVE

DETERMINATION. EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS SITUATED OVER SEA

SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 23-24 CELSIUS AND IS BENEATH A LARGE

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH... IT NOW HAS SEVERAL CHARACTERISTICS THAT

WARRANT CLASSIFICATION AS TROPICAL STORM VINCE. THE CYCLONE IS

ISOLATED AND IS QUITE SYMMETRIC WITH A SMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM

WINDS... PERHAPS 20-25 N MI... AND WHILE IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A

LARGER ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE SURFACE... THE INNER CORE

OF CONVECTION ONLY HAS A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 100 N MI. UPPER LEVEL

ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOT APPARENT ON SATELLITE ANIMATIONS... BUT A

07Z AMSU OVERPASS REVEALS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WARM CORE. CYCLONE

PHASE SPACE ANALYSES FROM FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY INDICATE THIS

SYSTEM IS SYMMETRIC AND NOT VERY FAR ON THE COLD CORE SIDE OF THE

SPECTRUM.

 

THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS SUPPORTED BY A 0640Z QUIKSCAT

OVERPASS AND BY SUBTROPICAL SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND

SAB OF 3.0 BASED ON THE HEBERT-POTEAT TECHNIQUE. SINCE SUBTROPICAL

CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE ON THIS SYSTEM FOR THE PAST DAY OR

SO... VINCE COULD EASILY BE DEEMED TO HAVE BECOME A SUBTROPICAL

STORM YESTERDAY. VINCE HAS BEEN CUT OFF FROM THE MIDLATITUDE

WESTERLIES FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS... BUT NOW SEEMS TO BE

MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 4 KT. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD

SPEED ALONG THIS SAME HEADING IS EXPECTED UNTIL VINCE MERGES WITH A

FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

 

FORECASTER KNABB

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 09/1500Z 34.0N 19.2W 45 KT

12HR VT 10/0000Z 34.7N 18.3W 45 KT

24HR VT 10/1200Z 36.3N 16.1W 45 KT

36HR VT 11/0000Z 39.1N 13.6W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

48HR VT 11/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

 

 

$$

[vicocala]

Here is the five day cone, as you can see it will probably end up being a rain maker for Europe:

 

[vicocala]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

1130 Am Edt Sun Oct 9 2005

 

For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

 

The National Hurricane Center Has Initiated Advisories On Tropical

Storm Vince... Located In The Far Eastern Atlantic About 140 Miles

Northwest Of The Madeira Islands And About 515 Miles East-southeast

Of The Azores.

 

A Large Area Of Cloudiness And Showers Over The Eastern Caribbean

Sea... The Lesser Antilles... And Hispaniola Is Primarily

Associated With A Middle To Upper Level Low Pressure System Between

Bermuda And The Lesser Antilles. Upper Level Winds Do Not Appear

To Be Favorable For Tropical Cyclone Formation In These Areas.

 

Shower Activity Has Diminished In Association With A Westward-moving

Tropical Wave Located About 450 Miles East Of The Lesser Antilles.

This System Will Be Monitored For Signs Of Future Development.

 

The Remnant Low Circulation Of Former Subtropical Depression

Twenty-two Is Moving West-northwestward About 185 Miles South Of

Bermuda. Redevelopment Of This System Is Not Expected.

 

Elsewhere... Tropical Storm Formation Is Not Expected Through

Monday.

[vicocala]

Hurricane Vince Discussion Number 2

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

5 Pm Edt Sun Oct 09 2005

 

If It Looks Like A Hurricane... It Probably Is... Despite Its

Environment And Unusual Location. Most Available Data Suggests

Vince Has Been Strengthening Today. In Fact... The Cira Intensity

Estimate Based On The Earlier Amsu Overpass Near 07z Was 50 Kt And

995 Mb... So Vince Was Probably Even A Little Stronger This Morning

Than Indicated In The Previous Advisory. More Recently... Metsat-8

Imagery Reveals That The Earlier Ragged Eye Feature With About

20 N Mi Diameter Has Contracted To 15 N Mi As A Bona Fide Eye. Some

Anticyclonic Outflow Aloft Is Now Discernible Around The Deep

Convection... Although The Convective Tops Remain A Bit Warmer Than

In Most Hurricanes. Subjective And Objective Dvorak T Numbers Range

From 3.5 To 4.5... With The Higher End Of This Range Based On An

Eye Pattern. These Estimates Provide The Basis For The Advisory

Intensity Of 65 Kt. It Is Not Clear If The Surface Winds Are As

Strong As The Satellite Signature Would Normally Suggest...

Especially Since The Convection Might Lack Some Vigor Over The

23-24c Ssts... But We Have No Data To Confirm Or Deny The Dvorak

Estimates.

 

Vince Is Still Moving Northeastward But Not Very Fast... About

045/5... So It Could Maintain Hurricane Intensity For Several Hours

While Its Oceanic And Atmospheric Environment Changes Little. Vince

Is Then Forecast To Weaken Gradually As It Moves Over Even Cooler

Waters And Northwesterly Shear Ramps Up. A Cold Front Is Several

Hundred N Mi Northwest Of Vince... And As The Front Continues Its

Eastward March Across The Northern Atlantic... It Should Pull Vince

Northeastward At A Gradually Increasing Forward Speed. Most Of The

Dynamical Models Agree With This Scenario And Suggest That Vince

Will Be Absorbed By The Front In About 36 Hours... But It Could

Take A Little Longer For The Small Circulation Of Vince To

Completely Lose Its Indentity.

 

Forecaster Knabb

 

 

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

 

Initial 09/2100z 34.2n 18.6w 65 Kt

12hr Vt 10/0600z 35.4n 17.1w 65 Kt

24hr Vt 10/1800z 37.6n 14.5w 60 Kt

36hr Vt 11/0600z 40.5n 11.0w 55 Kt...extratropical

48hr Vt 11/1800z...absorbed By Front

[LoveLifeAtSea]

Vic . . .

 

Thanks for being on the hurricane watch for the rest of us! I think it was very nice of you to take it upon yourself to post these updates.

 

I, TOO, hope the season is winding down and that no other catastrophic storms is on the horizon!

[vicocala]

You are very welcome. I was a new poster at the beginning of the season and had never made a cruise so I wanted to find a way to make a contribution. :)

[vicocala]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

1030 Pm Edt Sun Oct 9 2005

 

For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

 

The National Hurricane Center Is Issuing Advisories On Hurricane

Vince...located In The Far Eastern Atlantic About 125 Miles

North-northwest Of The Madeira Islands And About 565 Miles

East-southeast Of The Azores.

 

A Large Area Of Cloudiness And Showers Over The Eastern Caribbean

Sea... The Lesser Antilles... And Extending Northeastward Into The

Atlantic For A Several Hundred Miles... Is Primarily Associated

With A Middle- To Upper-level Low Pressure System Between Bermuda

And The Lesser Antilles. Upper-level Winds Do Not Appear To Be

Favorable For Tropical Cyclone Formation In These Areas.

 

The Remnant Low Circulation Of Former Subtropical Depression

Twenty-two Is Moving West-northwestward About 150 Miles Southwest Of

Bermuda. Redevelopment Of This System Is Not Expected.

 

A Westward-moving Tropical Wave Is Located About 350 Miles East Of

The Lesser Antilles. This System Is Disorganized And Conditions Do

Not Appear Favorable For Significant Development.

 

Elsewhere... Tropical Storm Formation Is Not Expected Through

Tuesday.

[vicocala]

Hurricane Vince Discussion Number 3

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

11 Pm Edt Sun Oct 09 2005

 

The Eye Of Vince Is Becoming Less Well-defined...and The Amount Of

Cold-topped Convection Surrounding The Eye Has Decreased.

Moreover...the Cloud Pattern Is Becoming Indicative Of Increasing

Westerly Shear As The Dense Overcast Has Become Somewhat Eroded Over

The Western Semicircle. All Of This Is Suggesting That A Weakening

Trend Is Imminent...if It Is Not Already Underway. Subjective

Dvorak Classifications And Objective T-numbers Still Support An

Intensity Of 65 Kt...although Amsu Intensity Estimates Have Never

Quite Supported Hurricane Strength. In 24-36 Hours...vertical

Shear Is Forecast To Increase To More Than 35 Kt And Sea Surface

Temperatures Will Likely Be Below 20 Deg C. The Official Intensity

Forecast Shows Steady Weakening...with Vince Becoming Extratropical

As It Nears The Iberian Peninsula. Global Model Guidance Shows A

Cold Front Becoming The Dominant Feature Shortly Thereafter.

 

Initial Motion...055/6...is A Little To The Right Of The Previous

Heading. A Broad Mid-level Trough Approaching The Area From The

Northwest Should Be The Dominant Steering Feature...and Cause Vince

To Accelerate Northeastward. The Official Track Forecast Is A

Little To The Right Of The Previous One And Close To Nogaps And The

Ncep Global Ensemble Mean. The Gfs And Gfdl Are Even Farther To

The Right Of The New Nhc Track.

 

Forecaster Pasch

 

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

 

Initial 10/0300z 34.5n 17.8w 65 Kt

12hr Vt 10/1200z 35.8n 15.3w 60 Kt

24hr Vt 11/0000z 38.0n 12.0w 50 Kt

36hr Vt 11/1200z 40.0n 8.0w 40 Kt...extratropical

48hr Vt 12/0000z...absorbed By Front

[vicocala]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

530 Am Edt Mon Oct 10 2005

 

For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

 

The National Hurricane Center Is Issuing Advisories On Tropical

Storm Vince...located In The Far Eastern Atlantic About 125 Miles

North Of The Madeira Islands.

 

A Large Area Of Showers And Thunderstorms Over The Eastern Caribbean

Sea... The Lesser Antilles... And Extending Northeastward Into The

Atlantic For A Several Hundred Miles... Is Primarily Associated

With A Middle- To Upper-level Low Pressure System Between Bermuda

And The Lesser Antilles. Some Bands Of Heavy Rain Have Developed

Near And To The South Of Puerto Rico This Morning Near A Surface

Trough Of Low Pressure. Upper-level Winds Do Not Appear To Be

Favorable For Tropical Cyclone Formation...but Some Slow

Non-tropical Or Sub-tropical Development Is Possible Over The Next

Couple Of Days.

 

A Westward-moving Tropical Wave Is Located About 300 Miles East Of

The Lesser Antilles. This System Is Disorganized And Conditions Do

Not Appear Favorable For Significant Development.

 

Elsewhere... Tropical Storm Formation Is Not Expected Through

Tuesday.

 

Forecaster Franklin

[vicocala]

Tropical Storm Vince Discussion Number 4

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

5 Am Edt Mon Oct 10 2005

 

Vince Has Become Rapidly Less Organized Overnight...as A Blast Of

Northwesterly Shear Has Overtaken The Cyclone. Convection Is Being

Displaced To The Southeast Of A Partially-exposed Low-level

Center...and The Eye Has Disintegrated. The Initial Intensity Is

Lowered To 50 Kt For This Advisory. With Vince Over 23c Waters And

The Shear Expected To Continue...a Continued Rapid Decline Is

Expected. The Gfs...ukmet...and Nogaps All Show Vince Becoming

Absorbed Or Dissipating Within 24 Hours Ahead Of An Approaching

Cold Front...but Vince Could Degenerate To A Remnant Low Before

Then.

 

Vince Has Accelerated To The East-northeast...and The Initial Motion

Is Now 070/10. As The Convection And The Low-level Center Continue

To Decouple...a Slight Turn Back To The Left Is Possible Before The

Center Dissipates. The Track Forecast Is Close To The Gfs And Gfdn

Solutions.

 

Forecaster Franklin

 

 

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

 

Initial 10/0900z 34.8n 16.6w 50 Kt

12hr Vt 10/1800z 36.4n 14.0w 35 Kt

24hr Vt 11/0600z...dissipated

[vicocala]

Tropical Storm Vince Discussion Number 5

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

11 Am Edt Mon Oct 10 2005

 

The Low Level Center Is Now Completely Exposed As Northwesterly

Shear Has Blown Nearly All Of The Convection Off To The East. Some

New Convection Has Resumed On The Immediate Eastern Periphery Of

The Center... But Vince Is Clearly On A Fast Decline. The

Intensity Is Lowered To 40 Kt... More In Line With The Dvorak Data

T Numbers Than The Much Higher Current Intensity Estimates... Due

To The Greatly Diminished Convection. In Addition To The Shear...

Vince Is Over Ssts Near 22c... So It Will Likely Degenerate Into A

Remnant Low In Roughly 12 Hours.

 

Vince Is Moving Quickly On A Heading Just North Of Due East... 080

Degrees At About 18 Kt... Which Is A Bit South Of The Previous

Advisory Track. The Circulation Center Will Probably Be Pulled A

Little More Northward By The Approaching Front Until The Eventual

Remnant Low Dissipates Or Is Absorbed By The Front.

 

Forecaster Knabb

 

 

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

 

Initial 10/1500z 34.9n 14.2w 40 Kt

12hr Vt 11/0000z 36.4n 11.0w 30 Kt...dissipating

24hr Vt 11/1200z...absorbed

 

 

$$

[vicocala]

Tropical Storm Vince Discussion Number 6

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

5 Pm Edt Mon Oct 10 2005

 

The Burst Of Convection That Began On The Eastern Side Of The

Circulation Center At About The Time Of The Previous Advisory Did

Not Last Long... And The Convection Is Just About Gone. Ssts Near

22c And Persistent Northwesterly Shear Continue To Promote A Steady

Decline. The Advisory Intensity Is Set To 35 Kt... Which Leans

Weaker Than A Blend Of The 18z Dvorak T And Ci Numbers...

2.5/3.0... Due To The Nearly Complete Absence Of Deep Convection.

Even Without The Convection... The Central Pressure Might Still Be

Just Low Enough To Support 35 Kt. Vince Passed Directly Over Buoy

44743... Operated By The European Group On Ocean Stations... Which

Measured A Pressure Near 997 Mb At 14z... Which Is A Little Lower

Than Had Been Estimated At The Time. However... Vince Is Expected

To Weaken To A Tropical Depression Shortly And Not Long After That

Degenerate Into A Remant Low Later Tonight.

 

Vince Is Racing East-northeastward At About 22 Kt Ahead Of An

Approaching Frontal System. No Significant Change To The Heading

And Speed Are Expected Prior To The Landfall Of The Remnant Low.

It Appears More Likely Now That The Circulation Will Dissipate Over

Land Before The Front Can Absorb It.

 

Forecaster Knabb

 

 

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

 

Initial 10/2100z 35.9n 11.6w 35 Kt

12hr Vt 11/0600z 37.5n 8.0w 30 Kt...remnant Low

24hr Vt 11/1800z...dissipated Inland

[vicocala]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

530 Pm Edt Mon Oct 10 2005

 

For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

 

The National Hurricane Center Is Issuing Advisories On Weakening

Tropical Storm Vince... Located In The Far Eastern Atlantic About

170 Miles West-southwest Of The Southwesternmost Tip Of Portugal.

 

Widespread Cloudiness... Showers... And Thunderstorms Continues

Across The Eastern Caribbean Sea And The Lesser Antilles... And

Then Northward Into The Atlantic For Several Hundred Miles. This

Activity Is Associated With A Large Middle- To Upper-level Low

Between Bermuda And The Lesser Antilles... And A Weak Surface Low

Located Just North Of Puerto Rico. The Combination Of These Systems

Is Producing Some Bands Of Heavy Rain Across Puerto Rico And The

Virgin Islands. While Upper-level Winds Are Not Favorable For

Tropical Cyclone Formation In This Area... Some Gradual Non-tropical

Or Subtropical Development Of This System Is Possible During The

Next Couple Of Days.

 

A Westward-moving Tropical Wave Located A Hundred Miles Or So

East Of The Lesser Antilles Is Being Absorbed Into The Larger

Weather System Located Over The Eastern Caribbean Sea And The

Northern Lesser Antilles.

 

The Remnant Circulation Of Former Subtropical Depression Twenty-two

Is Located About Midway Between Bermuda And The Outer Banks Of

North Carolina. Some Moderate Thunderstorm Activity Has Redeveloped

South Of The Low-level Center... And Nearby Ships Indicate Winds Of

30 To 35 Mph Are Occurring Just East Of The Center. While

Upper-level Winds Are Currently Unfavorable For Redevelopment...

This System Still Has The Potential To Remain A Significant Low

Pressure Area As It Moves Northwest To Northward At 20 Mph.

Additional Information On This System Can Be Found In High Seas

Forecasts Issued By The Ocean Prediction Center Under Awips Header

Nfdhfsat1 And Wmo Header Fznt01 Kwbc.

 

Elsewhere... Tropical Storm Formation Is Not Expected Through

Tuesday.

 

Forecaster Stewart

[vicocala]

Tropical Weather Outlook...corrected

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

1030 Pm Edt Mon Oct 10 2005

 

Corrected Product Time

 

For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

 

The National Hurricane Center Is Issuing Advisories On Tropical

Storm Vince... Located In The Far Eastern Atlantic About 55 Miles

South-southwest Of The Southwesternmost Tip Of Portugal.

 

Widespread Cloudiness... Showers... And Thunderstorms Persist

Across The Central And Eastern Caribbean Sea... And The Northern

Lesser Antilles... And Then Continue Northward Into The Atlantic

For Several Hundred Miles. This Activity Is Associated With A

Large Upper-level Low And A Broad Surface Low Pressure Located Over

Eastern Hispaniola And Western Puerto Rico. The Combination Of

These Systems Is Producing Some Bands Of Heavy Rain Across Puerto

Rico And The Virgin Islands... And Continuing Westward Across

Hispaniola And Eastern Cuba. While Upper-level Winds Are Currently

Unfavorable For Tropical Cyclone Formation In This Area... Some

Gradual Subtropical Development Is Possible During The Next Couple

Of Days As The System Moves Slowly Northward.

 

The Remnant Circulation Of Former Subtropical Depression Twenty-two

Is Centered About 240 Miles East-southeast The Outer Banks Of

North Carolina And Is Moving Northwestward At 15 To 20 Mph.

Thunderstorm Activity Continues To Develop Intermittently Just

South Of The Low-level Center. Although Environmental Conditions

Are Currently Unfavorable For Tropical Cyclone Development To

Occur... Upper-level Winds May Briefly Become A Little More

Favorable During The Day Tuesday As The System Passes Over The

Warmer Gulfstream. This May Allow Thunderstorms To Develop Over Or

Near The Low-level Center... Which Would Enable The System To

Briefly Strengthen Into A Tropical Or Subtropical Cyclone Before It

Merges With A Frontal System Just Off The U.s. East Coast.

Additional Information On This System Can Be Found In High Seas

Forecasts Issued By The Ocean Prediction Center Under Awips Header

Nfdhfsat1 And Wmo Header Fznt01 Kwbc.

 

Elsewhere... Tropical Storm Formation Is Not Expected Through

Wednesday.

 

Forecaster Stewart

[vicocala]

Tropical Storm Vince Discussion Number 7

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

11 Pm Edt Mon Oct 10 2005

 

Well... The Long And Strange 2005 Hurricane Season Continues As

Tropical Storm Vince Bears Down On The Southern Iberian Peninsula

And Northwestern Morocco. Dvorak Intensity Estimates Have Come Down

Considerably And Were A Consensus T2.5/35 Kt At 00z From All Three

Agencies. However... A Small Band Of Moderate Convection With Tops

To -50c Has Redeveloped Since Then About 50 Nmi Northeast Through

Southeast Of The Center. Also... A Late Arriving 10/2100z

Observation From Ship V2on3 Located About 90 Nmi Southwest Of The

Center Indicated Sustained Winds Of 41 Kt. Quality-control Checks

By The Ocean Prediction Center Indicate The Wind And Pressure Data

Were Viable... So The Intensity Is Being Maintained At 40 Kt As It

Was 18z Since There Has Been No Significant Change To The Cloud

Pattern Noted In Infrared Satellite Imagery Since That Time. The

34-kt And 12-ft Seas Radii Were Increased Based On The Report From

Ship V20n3 And Other Nearby Ships.

 

The Initial Motion Is 060/20. Vince Is Embedded In Deep

West-southwesterly Flow Ahead Of An Advancing Frontal System. The

Official Forecast Calls For Vince To Continue Moving East-northeast

To Northeastward Until Landfall Occurs Along The Coasts Of Southern

Portugal And Extreme Southwestern Spain Between 06-12z. After

Moving Inland... Vince Will Likely Dissipate Fairly Quickly As A

Tropical Cyclone Over Interior Spain. However... Winds May Still Be

Near Tropical Storm-force In 12-hours In The Strait Of Gilbratar

Due To The Strong Funneling Of The Low-level Westerly Winds On The

South Side... Which Is A Common Occurrence In That Area With

Eastward-moving Low Pressure Systems... Even If Vince Is An

Extremely Rare Tropical Cyclone For This Part Of The World.

 

Forecaster Stewart

 

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

 

Initial 11/0300z 36.4n 9.5w 40 Kt

12hr Vt 11/1200z 37.9n 6.1w 30 Kt...dissipating Inland

24hr Vt 12/0000z...dissipated Inland Over Spain

[vicocala]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

1130 Am Edt Tue Oct 11 2005

 

For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

 

A Large Area Of Cloudiness And Showers...stretching From The Central

Caribbean Sea East-northeastward Across Puerto Rico And The Virgin

Islands...and Northward Into The Atlantic For Several Hundred

Miles...is Associated With A Broad Area Of Low Pressure Over The

Western Atlantic. This Activity Remains Disorganized And

Development...if Any...is Expected To Be Slow To Occur. Additional

Heavy Rains And Possible Flooding Associated With This System Are

Likely To Affect Portions Of The Northern Leeward Islands...the

Virgin Islands...puerto Rico...and Hispaniola Over The Next Day Or

So.

 

The Remnant Circulation Of Subtropical Depression Twenty-two Is

Centered A Couple Hundred Miles East Of Norfolk Virginia.

Upper-level Winds Are Expected To Become Increasingly Unfavorable

For Re-development Of This System Over The Next 24 Hours.

Additional Information On This System Can Be Found In High Seas

Forecasts Issued By The Ocean Prediction Center Under Awips Header

Nfdhfsat1 And Wmo Header Fznt01 Kwbc.

 

Elsewhere... Tropical Storm Formation Is Not Expected Through

Wednesday.

 

Forecaster Pasch

[vicocala]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

530 Pm Edt Tue Oct 11 2005

 

For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

 

A Large Area Of Cloudiness And Showers...stretching From The Central

Caribbean Sea East-northeastward Across Puerto Rico And The Virgin

Islands... And Then Northward Into The Atlantic For Several Hundred

Miles... Is Associated With A Broad Area Of Low Pressure Over The

Western Atlantic And The Greater Antilles. This Activity Remains

Disorganized And Development...if Any... Is Expected To Be Slow To

Occur. Additional Heavy Rains And Possible Flooding Associated

With This System Are Likely To Affect Portions Of The Northern

Leeward Islands... The Virgin Islands... Puerto Rico... And

Hispaniola Over The Next Day Or So.

 

The Remnant Circulation Of Subtropical Depression Twenty-two...

Centered About 240 Miles South-southwest Of Nantucket Island

Massachusetts... Is Merging With A Frontal System... Making

Tropical Cyclone Development Unlikely. However... This System Still

Has The Potential To Remain A Significant Low Pressure Area As It

Moves Northeastward... And Additional Information Can Be Found In

High Seas Forecasts Issued By The Ocean Prediction Center Under

Awips Header Nfdhfsat1 And Wmo Header Fznt01 Kwbc.

 

Elsewhere... Tropical Storm Formation Is Not Expected Through

Wednesday.

 

Forecaster Stewart

[vicocala]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

530 Am Edt Wed Oct 12 2005

 

For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

 

An Unusually Large Low Pressure System Has Remained Nearly

Stationary Over The Western Atlantic And All Of The Caribbean

Sea... And Adjacent Land Areas... From Florida And The Bahamas

Southward To Central And South America. The Main Center Of The Low

Is Located Near Jamaica... With Another Low Center Located About

450 Miles South-southwest Of Bermuda. A Large Band Of Showers And

Thunderstorms Continues Along The Eastern And Southern Portions Of

The Large Low Pressure System From Near Bermuda Southward Across

Hispaniola... Puerto Rico... And The Virgin Islands... And Then

Continuing Southwestward Into The Central And Southwestern

Caribbean Sea... And Southern Portions Of Central America. This

Activity Remains Disorganized And Development...if Any... Is

Expected To Be Slow To Occur. However... Additional Heavy Rains And

Possible Flooding Associated With This System Are Likely To Affect

Portions Of The Northern Leeward Islands... The Virgin Islands...

Puerto Rico... And Hispaniola Over The Next Day Or So. In Addition

...winds May Gust To Near Tropical Storm-force In Some Of The

Stronger Thunderstorms.

 

Elsewhere... Tropical Storm Formation Is Not Expected Through

Thursday.

 

Forecaster Stewart

 

$$

[vicocala]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

1030 Pm Edt Wed Oct 12 2005

 

For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

 

A Large Band Of Cloudiness And Thunderstorms Extending From Central

America Northeastward Over The Caribbean Sea... Hispaniola....and

Puerto Rico... And Then Continuing Northward Across The Atlantic To

Bermuda Is Primarily Associated With A Large Upper-level Trough

Interacting With An Elongated Surface Low Pressure Area. There Are

No Signs Of Tropical Or Subtropical Cyclone Formation At This Time

...and Development... If Any... Should Be Slow To Occur. However

...additional Heavy Rains And Possible Flooding Associated With

This System Are Expected Primarily Over Portions Of The Northern

Leeward Islands... The Virgin Islands... Puerto Rico... And

Hispaniola During The Next Day Or So.

 

Elsewhere... Tropical Storm Formation Is Not Expected Through

Friday.

 

Forecaster Stewart

 

$$

[vicocala]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

1130 Am Edt Thu Oct 13 2005

 

For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

 

A Large Band Of Cloudiness And Showers Extending From The

Southwestern Caribbean Sea Northeastward Across The Atlantic Is

Associated With A Trough Of Low Pressure. The Portion Of The

Disturbed Weather Located Over The Atlantic Is More Likely To

Become A Non-tropical Low And Move Northeastward. The Portion

Located Over The Western Caribbean Sea Will Probably Move Little

During The Next Few Days And Development...if Any...will Be Slow To

Occur.

 

A Tropical Wave With A Large Area Of Disturbed Weather Is Located

Several Hundred Miles Southwest Of The Cape Verde Islands. Some

Additional Development Is Possible During The Next Day Or Two.

 

Elsewhere... Tropical Storm Formation Is Not Expected Through

Friday.

 

Forecaster Avila

[vicocala]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

530 Pm Edt Thu Oct 13 2005

 

For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

 

A Large Upper-level Trough Interacting With An Elongated Surface

Trough Of Low Pressure Is Producing A Large Band Of Cloudiness And

Showers From Bermuda Southwestward Over The Western Atlantic To

Near The Turks And Caicos Islands. Several Small Low Pressure

Centers Are Moving Northward Within This Band Of Cloudiness.

However... There Are No Signs That Any Of Those Circulations Is

Developing Into A Tropical Or Subtropical Cyclone. Additional

Information On This Large Weather System Can Be Found In High Seas

Forecasts Issued By The Noaa Ocean Prediction Center And The

Tropical Analysis And Forecast Branch.

 

A Broad Surface Low Pressure Area Centered About 150 Miles Southeast

Of Jamaica Has Remained Nearly Stationary. While Shower And

Thunderstorm Activity Has Increased And Become A Little Better

Organized... Upper-level Winds Are Currently Unfavorable For Any

Significant Development To Occur. However... Upper-level Winds May

Become A Little More Favorable Over The Central And Western

Caribbean Sea During The Next Couple Of Days As The System Drifts

Slowly Westward.

 

A Large Tropical Wave... Accompanied By A Broad Low Surface Low

Pressure System... Is Located About 450 Miles Southwest Of The Cape

Verde Islands. Some Slow Development Is Possible During The Next

Day Or Two As The System Moves West-northwestward At 10 To 15 Mph.

 

Elsewhere... Tropical Storm Formation Is Not Expected Through

Friday.

 

Forecaster Stewart

 

$$

[vicocala]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

530 Am Edt Fri Oct 14 2005

 

For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

 

A Large Upper-level Trough Interacting With A Broad Surface

Trough Of Low Pressure Is Producing An Extensive Band Of Cloudiness

And Showers From Bermuda Southward Over The Western Atlantic To

Hispaniola And Puerto Rico. Several Small Low Pressure Centers

Are Embedded Within This Large Band Of Cloudiness And Continue To

Move Northward. However... There Are No Signs That Any Of Those

Circulations Is Trying To Develop Into A Tropical Or Subtropical

Cyclone. Additional Information On This Complex Weather System Can

Be Found In High Seas Forecasts Issued By The Noaa Ocean Prediction

Center And The Tpc Tropical Analysis And Forecast Branch.

 

A Broad Surface Low Pressure System Has Remained Nearly Stationary

About 150 Miles Southeast Of Jamaica. Shower And Thunderstorm

Activity Has Become Slightly Better Organized... And Upper-level

Winds Have Become Marginally Favorable For Additional Development

To Occur. However... Upper-level Winds Are Expected Become Somewhat

More Favorable Over The Central And Western Caribbean Sea During

The Next Couple Of Days As The System Meanders Near Jamaica.

 

A Large Tropical Wave... Accompanied By A Broad Low Surface Low

Pressure System... Is Located About 500 Miles Southwest Of The Cape

Verde Islands. This System Has Some Potential For Some Slow

Development To Occur During The Next Day Or Two As It Moves

West-northwestward At 10 To 15 Mph.

 

Elsewhere... Tropical Storm Formation Is Not Expected Through

Saturday.

 

Forecaster Stewart

[vicocala]

This is my last post until I return from my cruise, for those who may wish further information this week for their upcoming cruises I would very much suggest this site as it has all kinds of maps as well as the various forecasts. It is what I use to submit these reports:

 

http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html

 

I hope everyone has a great week and fair skies!

[Sage]

Vicocala,

 

Thanks once again for the updates. I hope that you have a great time on your cruise and that the weather is perfect.

[vicocala]

You are very welcome Sage, and thank you!