TD #27 (Gamma)

[Grumpy1]

News this morning says it's going to skip Florida!! :p I am sure you guys are happy. Plus it's now not even a tropical storm.. whew!!

Bad news is there is rain that is going to move up the east coast next week, just in time for holiday travel..:mad: We will be driving from SC to Tampa on Thanksgiving day to catch the Veendam on Saturday.. Hope the rain will have passed by SC by the time we get on the road..

Looking at the latest, it looks like Gamma may just fizzle out south of Cuba. It has had an extremely erratic path. It seems to like behaving opposite to what the forecasters predict.

[HeatherInFlorida]

Yes!!! Happy, happy, happy since yesterday when they told us it was going between the Keys and Cuba. And happier still today because it's doing what all good storms should do: Fizzling down to nothing and staying over water where all dead tropical depressions should go:D . Almost turned around and went backwards!

 

Okay by me!!! And anytime forecasters want to be wrong this way is fine with me. I will say that our guys here always hinted they thought it might fizzle. But they can't be stupid either and not report what the NHC predicts.

 

The season is almost over and this is one happy camper who is going to thoroughly enjoy the next 6 months!!

[vicocala]

Tropical Depression Gamma Discussion Number 19

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

10 Am Est Sun Nov 20 2005

 

Convection Has Significantly Waned During The Past 6 Hours With The

Closest Deep Convection Located A Couple Hundred Miles To The

Northeast Of The Now Fully Exposed Low-level Center. Another Weak

Band Of Convection Has Recently Developed Southeast Of The Center

Along The Honduras Coast... But It Is Not Showing Any Signs At This

Time Of Trying To Wrap Into The Center. Satellite Estimates Have

Decreased Accordingly... So The Initial Intensity Is Set To 30 Kt

...based Mainly On The Tight Swirl Noted In The Low-level Clouds.

 

The Initial Motion Is 325/03... Although Gamma Appears To Be Making

A Small Counter-clockwise Loop. Upper-air Data At 12z Indicate

Little Change To The Overall Steering Flow Pattern... Except That

The Break In The 500 Mb Ridge To The North Has Filled In. This

Should Help To Keep Gamma Trapped In The Northwestern Caribbean For

The Next Few Days Until A Strong Cold Front Captures The Cyclone By

72 Hours. The Nogaps...gfdn... And Coamps Models Maintain A Deeper

And Stronger Circulation Than Do The Rest Of The Nhc Models...which

Seems Unreasonable Based On The 12z Belize Sounding. In Contrast...

The Gfs And Gfs Ensemble Models Weaken Gamma Over The Next Couple

Of Days And Drift It Around Within 90 Nmi Of Its Current Location.

The Remaining Models Also Weaken The Cyclone And Drift It Slowly

East Or Southeastward. The Official Forecast Track Is Similar To

The Previous Track And Leans Closely Toward The Gfs Models... With

Dissipation Possibly Occurring Within 24 Hours Or Less.

 

Additional Weakening Appears Likely Due To Increasing Vertical

Shear... And Entrainment Of Dry Mid-level Air From Central America

As Noted In 12z Upper-air Data From Belize. The Ships Model

Dissipates Gamma By 24 Hours. This Rapid Downward Intensity Trend

Was Closely Followed... Especially Given The Very Poor Appearance

Of Gamma In The Most Recent Satellite Imagery.

 

Forecaster Stewart

 

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

 

Initial 20/1500z 16.9n 85.3w 30 Kt

12hr Vt 21/0000z 17.1n 85.2w 25 Kt...dissipating

24hr Vt 21/1200z 17.5n 84.4w 25 Kt...dissipating

36hr Vt 22/0000z 17.7n 83.0w 20 Kt...remnant Low

48hr Vt 22/1200z 17.7n 81.1w 20 Kt...remnant Low

72hr Vt 23/1200z...merged With Frontal System

[vicocala]

Actually,

 

I wish it had held together and came up our way (as a tropical storm or less). It is really dry in our part of the state, we could use the rain. We got a very brief shower last night but I went for a walk thru the Marshall Swamp yesterday and the swamp was mostly dry, especially under the constructed bridges where water would normally be.

 

It isn't looking good for fire season, we need the benefits of these tropical systems to keep our state lush and green and not a desert like almost everywhere else at our latitude.

 

For some it may sound strange, but without the tropical systems, Florida wouldn't be Florida.

[HeatherInFlorida]

Be careful what you wish for. There was very little likelihood of it ever being as far North as Ocala anyway. We were told we would be getting 40 to 60 mph winds with a chance of hurricane force. Our area in Palm Beach County has seen just about all the storms it can take for awhile. It doesn't look even close to what it should be.

 

So forgive me for being extemely happy that we were spared this time. I understand what you're saying, but it's infrequent that we get just what we want from a tropical system.

 

A lot of us are counting our blessings today.

[vicocala]

Heather,

 

I am very glad that it did not come into South Florida with everyone still trying to recover from the previous storms. Especially, Key West which has been hit repeatedly this year.

 

My point for those who don't live in Florida is that tropical systems are important to the Florida ecosystem. It is cloudy here this afternoon and we are expecting cooler weather and a brisk Thanksgiving, but we do need the rain.

 

Also hurricanes are natures way of distributing warm air from the equator to the temperate areas to keep portions of the earth from baking and others from being frozen tundra, so in effect these storms actually benefit the whole planet.

 

The problem isn't hurricanes but government zoning which has allowed overbuilding on coastal areas. I think rebuilding New Orleans is just insane but I am sure 99% of folks would disagree with that too.

 

I just feel that everything in nature was placed there by the Lord for good reason and hopefully the season is over but we can see the blessings that tropical systems bring too, rather than just the curses.

[vicocala]

Tropical Depression Gamma Discussion Number 20

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

4 Pm Est Sun Nov 20 2005

 

Gamma Has A Well-defined Low-level Circulation But No Organized Deep

Convection. The Convection That Was Present This Morning Has

Sheared Off To The Northeast. Based On The Most Recent Quikscat

Pass...the Initial Intensity Is Estimated To Be 30 Kt...but Could

Be Less Than That By Now. Strong South To Southwesterly Wind Shear

Is Expected To Continue Over The Circulation And Prevent The

Redevelopment Of Persistent Convection. Gamma Is Likely To

Degenerate Into A Remnant Low This Evening...or Almost Surely By

Tomorrow.

 

Gamma Has Been Meandering For Much Of The Day...as The Cyclone

Remains To The South Of A Weak Low-level Ridge...but Over The Past

Few Hours The Motion Has Been 360/2. Little Overall Motion Is

Expected For The Next Day Or So...after Which A Strong Cold Front

Sweeping Through The Gulf And Northwestern Caribbean Should Take

The Remnant Circulation Generally Eastward. The Official Forecast

Is A Little Slower To The East Than The Previous Advisory...in

Deference To The Shallow Bam And Gfs Models. The Remnant

Circulation Will Either Become Absorbed By The Front Or Dissipate

Ahead Of The Front.

 

Forecaster Franklin

 

 

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

 

Initial 20/2100z 17.0n 85.5w 30 Kt

12hr Vt 21/0600z 17.4n 85.5w 25 Kt...dissipating

24hr Vt 21/1800z 17.5n 85.0w 25 Kt...remnant Low

36hr Vt 22/0600z 17.6n 83.0w 20 Kt...remnant Low

48hr Vt 22/1800z...dissipated

[HeatherInFlorida]

Heather,

 

...................................

The problem isn't hurricanes but government zoning which has allowed overbuilding on coastal areas. I think rebuilding New Orleans is just insane but I am sure 99% of folks would disagree with that too.

 

.....................

 

You'll get no argument from me on this point. They can rebuild New Orleans, but not in a hole. Makes no sense. And allowing people to build along our shorelines over and over again while each and every one of us is paying for them to rebuild is completely insane. Many will argue this, but not me.

 

And though you may well be right about the ecosystem, we managed to go many years without hurricanes battering all of Florida. Nothing wrong with a nice tropical system moving through and dumping rain, but we really don't need the hurricanes. JMO.

[vicocala]

Last Call: (I hope) ;)

 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

10 PM EST SUN NOV 20 2005

 

GAMMA CONTINUES TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...BUT

ALSO CONTINUES TO LACK ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. THUS THE SYSTEM

NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND ADVISORIES ARE

BEING DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME. STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR

IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE CIRCULATION AND DISCOURAGE THE

REDEVELOPMENT OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.

ADDITIONALLY...IN 24 HOURS OR SO...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO

SWEEP INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE

REMNANT LOW OF GAMMA WILL EITHER BECOME ABSORBED BY THIS FRONT OR

DISSIPATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

 

GAMMA HAS BEEN DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE

TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS DISSIPATING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED

FRONT ENTERS THE PICTURE. AN INCREASING WESTERLY COMPONENT OF

LOW-LEVEL STEERING IS FORECAST...WHICH SHOULD TURN GAMMA'S REMNANTS

NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION.

 

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON

GAMMA UNLESS REGENERATION...WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY...OCCURS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW OF GAMMA CAN BE FOUND IN

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER

AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC...AND IN OFFSHORE

WATERS FORECASTS UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIAOFFNT3 AND UNDER WMO HEADER

FZNT23 KNHC.

 

FORECASTER PASCH

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 21/0300Z 17.2N 85.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING

12HR VT 21/1200Z 17.4N 85.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

24HR VT 22/0000Z 17.5N 84.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

36HR VT 22/1200Z 17.5N 82.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

48HR VT 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED