TD #27 (Gamma)

[vicocala]

Thanks Jean,

 

Here is the latest:

 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

10 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005

 

THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS OF INFRARED AND VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT

THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING NEARLY DUE WESTWARD AT ABOUT

10 KT... AS A SHALLOW SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES.

CONVECTION NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER HAS BEEN INTERMITTENT SINCE

ABOUT 06Z... AND MORE RECENTLY A LIMITED AMOUNT OF CONVECTION HAS

BEEN FORMING NORTH OF THE CENTER. 12Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES

VARY FROM 30 TO 35 KT DEPENDING ON THE CENTER LOCATION... BUT GIVEN

THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN SINCE THEN...

THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 30 KT. THIS IS ALSO

CONSISTENT WITH AN ESTIMATE OF 30 KT AND 1005 MB FROM AN EARLIER

AMSU OVERPASS AT ABOUT 07Z... AND WITH A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT ABOUT

1030Z. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE SYSTEM

THIS AFTERNOON.

 

THE TRACK FORECAST IS RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD THROUGH ABOUT 72

HOURS... AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER

THE EXTREME WESTERN ATLANTIC AND CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE CYCLONE

WESTWARD. ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO BREAK

DOWN BY DAYS 4 AND 5... WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN THE CYCLONE...

ALTHOUGH IT COULD START EDGING NORTHWARD DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF A

TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THAT TIME. WHILE THE

DETAILS IN THE VARIOUS MODEL TRACKS VARY... THEY ALL SHOW VERY SLOW

MOTION NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... AS DOES THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST. THIS WOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA

THROUGHOUT THE FIVE DAY PERIOD.

 

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE WESTERLY SHEAR

OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA APPEARS TO GRADUALLY BE ON THE

DECLINE... AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE UPPER-LEVEL

ANTICYCLONE THAT HAS BEEN FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO

DEVELOP OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS STARTING TO MATERIALIZE.

AS THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES WESTWARD... THE SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE

AND... COMBINED WITH THE WARM WATERS OF ABOUT 29C... PROVIDE AN

ENVIRONMENT MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. IF THE DEPRESSION CAN

SURVIVE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO... IT COULD THEREAFTER STRENGTHEN

INTO A TROPICAL STORM AS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST FOR NOW REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN

FORECASTING LIMITED STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS... WITH

A MORE STEADY INCREASE THEREAFTER.

 

 

FORECASTER KNABB

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 15/1500Z 14.2N 67.5W 30 KT

12HR VT 16/0000Z 14.3N 69.0W 30 KT

24HR VT 16/1200Z 14.5N 71.1W 35 KT

36HR VT 17/0000Z 14.7N 73.2W 40 KT

48HR VT 17/1200Z 14.8N 75.3W 45 KT

72HR VT 18/1200Z 15.0N 79.0W 55 KT

96HR VT 19/1200Z 15.0N 81.0W 65 KT

120HR VT 20/1200Z 15.5N 81.5W 65 KT

[LolaWiz]

Vic,

at this point, i know things are uncertain, but i am wondering what you will think will be happening next week.... is there anything we can plan for, in regards for this storm to be turning into something stronger or should we wait and see?

 

If i read that correctly, it says it could strenghten and go northward towards cancun/tulum/cozumel?

[Grumpy1]

The 120 hour (5 day) position/strength forecast puts it 100 miles east of the Honduras/Nicaragua border, very close to CAT 1 strength with a NW movement toward Belize/Cancun. Of course, the accuracy of forecasts that far out is pretty low, but another 2 days should give a much better picture,

[HeatherInFlorida]

Lola, be aware that Vic is not a forecaster, but is simply copying the information from the National Weather Center. No one can forecast what will happen next week at this point in time.

 

But you should also know that there is another tropical depression down there now so things have not exactly settled down as much as we might have hoped this late in the season.

[elmorejj]

Oh my goodness! please don`t let it go too far NW this time. The Yucatan have had their share this year and the resort areas of Cancun and the Mayan Riviera are just now getting back on their feet. Several hotels are open and the rest are to be up and running by Dec. 15th. We will be there for 2 weeks in January and I hate to think of another storm hitting them......jean:cool:

[LolaWiz]

Lola, be aware that Vic is not a forecaster, but is simply copying the information from the National Weather Center. No one can forecast what will happen next week at this point in time.

 

But you should also know that there is another tropical depression down there now so things have not exactly settled down as much as we might have hoped this late in the season.

 

I know that.. at this point, i am freaking out about this. I am kicking myself for not getting trip insurance and wondering if they will still be allowing tourists down there with TDs starting again.

I don't know what to do :(

[HeatherInFlorida]

Lola, try to calm down and take it a day at a time. We don't know what these depressions are going to do for sure. They're not even storms yet. Granted, TD #27 is predicted to become a Cat 1 by the time it gets to that area, but that's not until Sunday.

 

So just keep an eye on it. Go to the Weather Channel for the Tropical Update (you can see that at 10 minutes before every hour) and they'll sort out all the gibberish you see in the scientific prediction.

 

I feel for you because I was in the same boat for different reasons as Wilma approached us and we were leaving on a cruise. So I know how you feel, but remember there's nothing in this world we can do about a natural occurence like this and it will do no good to be so upset.

 

Count your blessings you're not supposed to leave on Friday or Saturday and you wouldn't know what to do. You sure don't want to be there if it does hit.

[vicocala]

Lola,

 

right now it is just to soon to tell. As you read the discussions, you will notice how certain or uncertain they are. This is one of the reasons I post the discussions rather than the warnings, it gives you a feel for the forecasters thinking. Here is the latest release:

 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

4 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2005

 

THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CONFIRMS WHAT THE SATELLITE

IMAGERY HAS BEEN INDICATING TODAY... THAT THE DEPRESSION REMAINS

QUITE POORLY ORGANIZED. THE CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED

WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST... WITH ONLY VERY WEAK WESTERLY

WINDS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE AND A BROAD AREA OF WEAK WINDS

AROUND THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION. THE LOWEST PRESSURE REPORTED

BY THE AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN 1006 MB. EVEN THOUGH THE CIRCULATION IS A

BIT SLOPPY... SOME DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS CLOSE BY... BUT ONLY ON

THE EASTERN SIDE DUE TO CONTINUING WESTERLY SHEAR. PERHAPS

GENEROUSLY... THE SYSTEM REMAINS A DEPRESSION WITH 30 KT WINDS...

BASED ON FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 41 KT... A FEW SHIP REPORTS OF ABOUT

30 KT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT... AND DVORAK SATELLITE

ESTIMATES.

 

THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS MOVING JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST AT ABOUT 11

KT. THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD THROUGH

ABOUT 48 HOURS... AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO

PERSIST OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN ATLANTIC AND CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE

CYCLONE WESTWARD. AFTER THAT... THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS

COMPLICATING THE TRACK FORECAST. DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE THE

WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND CAUSE THE TROPICAL

CYCLONE TO MOVE MORE SLOWLY ON DAYS 3-5. HOWEVER... EACH MODEL

FORECASTS A DIFFERENT EVOLUTION OF THE BROAD LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE

SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN... AND EACH SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER

THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY THAT TIME... BUT WITH VARYING STRENGTH

OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL MOST LIKELY

BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS BETWEEN THESE TWO

FEATURES... ALTHOUGH ONE COULD END UP HAVING MORE INFLUENCE THAN

THE OTHER. MOST OF THE MODELS FAVOR A SLOW NORTHWARD COMPONENT TO

THE MOTION ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS

SCENARIO AND IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 72

HOURS... THEN SIMILARLY SLOW THEREAFTER.

 

ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS BARELY HANGING ON TO TROPICAL CYCLONE

STATUS... ITS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE

FOR STRENGTHENING. IF THE CYCLONE SURVIVES THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO

OF CONTINUED WESTERLY SHEAR... THE DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL

ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL CREATE A WEAKER

SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A TROPICAL STORM TO

DEVELOP IN 24-36 HOURS AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. SHIPS

PEAKS AT 55 KT IN ABOUT 72 HOURS... WHILE THE GFDL PEAKS AT 77 KT A

LITTLE LATER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN AND STILL

ANTICIPATES DEVELOPMENT INTO A HURRICANE... ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING

TREND IS NOW INTRODUCED AT THE END OF THE FORECAST IN ANTICIPATION

OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH EXPECTED

TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

 

 

FORECASTER KNABB

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 15/2100Z 14.8N 69.0W 30 KT

12HR VT 16/0600Z 14.9N 70.7W 30 KT

24HR VT 16/1800Z 15.0N 73.0W 35 KT

36HR VT 17/0600Z 15.2N 75.2W 40 KT

48HR VT 17/1800Z 15.4N 77.5W 45 KT

72HR VT 18/1800Z 15.5N 81.0W 55 KT

96HR VT 19/1800Z 16.0N 82.0W 65 KT

120HR VT 20/1800Z 16.5N 82.5W 60 KT

 

 

$$

[vicocala]

Tropical Depression Twenty-seven Discussion Number 9

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

10 Pm Est Tue Nov 15 2005

 

It Is Impossible To Locate The Center Of The Depression With

Conventional Satellite Imagery...so The Advisory Position And

Motion Are Based On Continuity Of The Earlier Track. An Ssmis

Microwave Pass At 0030z Hints That The Center May Be Racing More

Quickly Away From The Convection Though...and If This Is The Case

Then The Depression Is On A Fast Track To Dissipation. Quikscat

Ambiguities Just In A Few Moments Ago Allow For The Possibility

That A Circulation Is Still Present...but Just Barely. The

Consensus Of The Dvorak Intensity Estimates Remains Below Tropical

Storm Strength...so The Initial Intensity Will Be Held At 30 Kt For

This Advisory. Shear Analyses From The Gfs And Uw/cimss Indicate

There Is Still About 25 Kt Of Westerly Shear Over The

Depression...and It Is Quite Possible That The Circulation Will

Dissipate Within The Next 12 To 24 Hours. However...should It

Survive...the Depression Will Find Itself Under An Upper-level

Anticyclone In The Central And Western Caribbean. There Is Better

Agreement Now Between The Ships And Gfdl Intensity

Guidance...although Neither Model Now Brings The System To

Hurricane Strength. Near The End Of The Forecast Period...

Increasing Southwesterly Shear Associated With A Major Trough Is

Expected To Sweep Into The Gulf Of Mexico And Northwestern

Caribbean.

 

The Depression Is Moving Westward To The South Of Low- To Mid-level

High Pressure Centered Over The Northwestern Bahamas...and This

Pattern Is Expected To Remain In Place For The Next 2-3 Days.

After That...steering Currents Are Expected To Weaken With The

Aprroach Of The Aforementioned Trough...and Much Of The Model

Guidance Suggests That The Cyclone Will Begin To Lift Northward Or

Even Northeastward By Day 5. A Complication Is The Broad And

Persistent Area Of Low Pressure In The Southwestern Caribbean. If

This Low Becomes The Dominant Circulation...the Depression Or Its

Remnants Would Likely Continue Westward Into Central America. This

Is The Solution Offered By The Gfs...which Has Never Thought Highly

Of The Depression And So Far Has Been Right. However...the

Official Forecast Will Presume That The Depression Survives And Is

A Deep Enough System By Day 4 To Feel The Effects Of The Trough In

The Gulf.

 

 

Forecaster Franklin

 

 

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

 

Initial 16/0300z 14.9n 70.2w 30 Kt

12hr Vt 16/1200z 15.0n 72.0w 30 Kt

24hr Vt 17/0000z 15.1n 74.2w 35 Kt

36hr Vt 17/1200z 15.3n 76.5w 40 Kt

48hr Vt 18/0000z 15.5n 78.5w 50 Kt

72hr Vt 19/0000z 15.5n 81.0w 55 Kt

96hr Vt 20/0000z 16.0n 81.5w 60 Kt

120hr Vt 21/0000z 16.5n 81.5w 55 Kt

 

 

$$

[vicocala]

The good news is that the system appears to be dying. The bad news is a bigger system near the central American coast may be forming, dependant on how soon it reaches land.

 

The latest:

 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

4 AM EST WED NOV 16 2005

 

THERE IS NO REAL EVIDENCE THAT A SURFACE CENTER STILL EXISTS. NO

WESTERLY COMPONENT OF LOW CLOUD MOTION CAN BE DISCERNED ON

NIGHTTIME INFRARED CHANNEL IMAGES...AND AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT

AMBIGUITY PLOT WAS NOT AT ALL CONVINCING. WE WILL WAIT FOR VISIBLE

IMAGERY AND ADDITIONAL DATA TO CONFIRM THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS

DISSIPATED. IT APPEARS THAT THE DEPRESSION...OR ITS REMNANT...IS

ABOUT TO BE DRAWN INTO A MORE DOMINANT LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE

SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. INDEED...THIS LATTER SYSTEM IS THE

MORE IMPRESSIVE-LOOKING FEATURE AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY...THE

UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN DISTURBANCE MAY

DISRUPT THE SMALLER AND WEAKER UPPER ANTICYCLONE UNDER WHICH THE

DEPRESSION WAS EXPECTED TO MOVE. IF THIS IS THE CASE...THEN THE

UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WOULD NOT BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR

INTENSIFICATION...OR REGENERATION.

 

SATELLITE FIXES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE...WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING

GIVEN THE SEEMING ABSENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. INITIAL

MOTION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

EASTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO

PUSH THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMNANTS WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR

SO. THE REMNANTS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE BROAD LOW

PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

 

FORECASTER PASCH

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 16/0900Z 14.8N 71.4W 25 KT

12HR VT 16/1800Z 14.8N 73.2W 25 KT

24HR VT 17/0600Z 14.8N 75.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING

36HR VT 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

 

$$

[LolaWiz]

thanks again for all the updates.

 

I am so very happy this system is fizzling, but i cannot believe there is another one starting up again.

Please keep us informed!

 

Thanks :)

[HeatherInFlorida]

when I watched my local weather guy this morning, I was just so happy for Lola because I knew how much better she must be feeling this morning:) .

 

Time and again our weather guys here are right and I said awhile back that they felt there was every possibility this depression would fizzle.

 

90% of the things we worry about never happen. Especially at this time of year, the atmospheric conditions rarely encourage tropical depressions to gain strength and even become hurricanes.

[LolaWiz]

when I watched my local weather guy this morning, I was just so happy for Lola because I knew how much better she must be feeling this morning:) .

 

Time and again our weather guys here are right and I said awhile back that they felt there was every possibility this depression would fizzle.

 

90% of the things we worry about never happen. Especially at this time of year, the atmospheric conditions rarely encourage tropical depressions to gain strength and even become hurricanes.

 

Heather, you are so sweet! :)

thanks so much for thinking of me! I hope that nothing else comes of this hurricane season (*knocks on wood*) because i cannot imagine more devistation to the caribbean, mexico and the southeast USA.

[vicocala]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

1130 Am Est Fri Nov 18 2005

 

For The North Atlantic...caribbean Sea And The Gulf Of Mexico...

 

Satellite Imagery This Morning Shows That The Remnants Of Tropical

Depression Twenty-seven Are Becoming Better Organized Near The

Northern Coast Of Honduras Just East Of Roatan Island. If Current

Trends Continue...a Tropical Depression Or Tropical Storm Could Form

Later Today. If Advisories Are Re-initiated...watches And Warnings

May Be Required For Portions Of The Northwestern Caribbean Coast

And The Adjacent Islands...and Interests In This Area Should

Monitor The Progress Of This System. Strong Winds Are Already

Occurring Over The Northwestern Caribbean Sea To The North Of The

System...and Additional Information On This Can Be Found In High

Seas Forecasts Issued By The Tpc/tropical Analysis And Forecast

Branch Under Awips Header Miahsfat2 And Under Wmo Header Fznt02

Knhc.

 

Even If No Additional Development Occurs...heavy Rains Will Be

Possible Across Portions Of Honduras...belize...the Cayman

Islands...western Cuba...and The Yucatan Peninsula Of Mexico.

These Rains Could Cause Life-threatening Flash Floods And

Mudslides.

 

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Is Currently Enroute

To Investigate The System.

 

A Complex Non-tropical Area Of Low Pressure Is Located About

800 Miles Northeast Of The Leeward Islands And Is Producing Winds To

Near Gale Force. Shower Activity Associated With This System Has

Lost Organization During The Past 24 Hours...and Any Development

Into A Subtropical Or Tropical Cyclone Should Be Slow To Occur.

 

Elsewhere...tropical Storm Formation Is Not Expected Through

Saturday.

 

Forecaster Beven

 

$$

[HeatherInFlorida]

In layman's terms, we now have Tropical Storm Gamma alive and kicking in the Gulf and due to come straight across Florida (right over my house basically) on Monday.

 

The good news is they expect it to be nothing more than a tropical storm with winds 40 to 60 mph (and maybe much less), but STILL!!!!!! I HAVE HAD IT!!! I AM DONE!!!!

 

Geez.

[HeatherInFlorida]

[LolaWiz]

I cannot believe this now. :mad: (for FLA's sake)

I hope it fizzles again.

[shipper]

But its just a tropical storm, that looks like its going to follow Wilmas path, can you believe it. At least most of the tress that were going to fall down are down.

[HeatherInFlorida]

But its just a tropical storm, that looks like its going to follow Wilmas path, can you believe it. At least most of the tress that were going to fall down are down.

 

The only problem, Shipper, is Wilma was supposed to be "just" a Cat 1 or less and it was worse than Jeanne and Francis. I worry a little about "just" with winds of 40 to 60 mph. 40 is not so bad... 60 with higher gusts is not so nice. Especially when you consider that in our area there is a lot of debris from Wilma all over the place and in huge piles here and there. Not to mention all the "stuff" that hasn't even been sorted through yet.

 

I'm just hoping that the cold front will move far enough south to keep this storm way to our south (as in out in the water south of Florida).

 

We're just all so tired of the waiting and the worrying and the wondering. It's just enough.

[vicocala]

Tropical Storm Gamma Discussion Number 13...corrected

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

10 Pm Est Fri Nov 18 2005

 

...clarified Wording In Second Paragraph...

 

The Air Force Hurricane Hunter Aircraft... On Its Last Leg Along The

North-central Coast Of Honduras Earlier This Evening Just Before

22z... Did Not Measure Any Westerly Winds. However... Satellite

Imagery And Surface Observations In Honduras Suggested Westerly

Winds Farther South... So The Low-level Center Appears To Have Been

Along The Immediate Coast At That Time. More Recent Imagery

Suggests The Low-level Center Has Edged Northwestward Off The Coast

At A Forward Speed Of About 4 Kt. A Mid-level Center Is Apparent

In The Colder Infrared Tops Farther North... With The Tilting

Likely Caused By The Southerly Wind Shear. Also On Its Last Leg...

The Aircraft Measured 1500-ft Flight-level Winds Of 56 Kt. 00z

Dvorak Intensity Estimates Based On The Curved Banding In The

Mid-levels Are Only 30 Kt... But A Shear Pattern Using A More

Southern Center Location Yields A Stronger Estimate. The Advisory

Intensity Is Set To 40 Kt Mainly Based On The Earlier Aircraft

Data... But It Is Also Consistent With A 2330z Quikscat Pass.

 

The Dynamical Models Are Unanimous In Forecasting An Extratropical

Low Pressure System To Form Over The Southeastern United States In A

Little More Than Two Days... In Association With A Developing

Mid-latitude Trough Over The Eastern Half Of The U.s. The Models

Are Not In Agreement... However... On What Will Be Left Of Gamma By

That Time. Most Of Them Forecast A Track That Seems Too Far To The

West Over Yucatan And Too Slow... Given The Southerly Mid- To

Upper-level Steering Flow That Will Also Shear The System And Force

The Low-level Center To Move Generally Northward Just Behind The

Convection During The Next Couple Of Days. The Models Often Do Not

Forecast The Track Well For Sheared Systems... And The Official

Forecast Leans Closer To The Direction In Which The Shear Is

Pointed. Beyond About 48 Hours... Once The Extratropical System

Forms Over The Southeastern U.s... The New Official Forecast...

Like The Previous Advisory... Keeps Gamma Moving Northeastward

Along With That System Even Though Most Of The Models Are Much

Slower In Forecasting Recurvature.

 

The Wind Shear Will Only Get Stronger As The Trough Develops Over

The Southeastern U.s. And Gulf Of Mexico During The Next 2-3 Days.

Therefore... Conditions Do Not Appear Conducive For Significant

Strengthening... And Intensification To A Hurricane Seems Rather

Unlikely In This Environment. The Gfdl Now Forecasts Little Change

In The Intensity For The Next 2-3 Days And Peaks At About 45 Kt.

The Ships Is Similar But Forecasts A Decline After 24 Hours As The

Shear Increases. The Official Intensity Forecast Is Adjusted

Downward Compared To The Previous Advisory... Anticipating The

Possibility Of Some Slight Strengthening In The Short Term But

Overall Little Change Until Gamma Becomes Extratropical And

Eventually Is Absorbed Into The Larger Extratropical System Over

The Atlantic.

 

 

Forecaster Knabb

 

 

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

 

Initial 19/0300z 16.4n 85.8w 40 Kt

12hr Vt 19/1200z 16.8n 86.3w 45 Kt

24hr Vt 20/0000z 17.4n 86.9w 45 Kt

36hr Vt 20/1200z 18.8n 87.0w 45 Kt

48hr Vt 21/0000z 20.8n 85.6w 45 Kt

72hr Vt 22/0000z 25.0n 81.0w 45 Kt

96hr Vt 23/0000z 34.0n 70.0w 40 Kt...extratropical

120hr Vt 24/0000z...absorbed By Larger Extratropical System

[vicocala]

Associated Press story on the storm:

 

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051119/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/tropical_weather;_ylt=AosoEARSlbXBlGq.WoDM2QC3IxIF;_ylu=X3oDMTBjMHVqMTQ4BHNlYwN5bnN1YmNhdA--

[vicocala]

Tropical Storm Gamma Discussion Number 15

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

10 Am Est Sat Nov 19 2005

 

Visible Imagery And Recent Microwave Data From Trmm And Ssm/i

Suggest That The Low-level Center Of Gamma Is A Little To The

Southeast Of The Previous Advisory Position...near The Southern

Edge Of The Main Convective Cluster. This Position Is Indicative

Of The 20-30 Kt Vertical Shear Analyzed By The Ships Model And

Analyses From Cimss At The University Of Wisconsin. Satellite

Intensity Estimates Are 45 Kt From Tafb...and 35 Kt From Sab And

Afwa. Based On This...the Initial Intensity Remains 40 Kt.

 

The Initial Motion Is A Rather Uncertain 330/4. Gamma Is South Of A

Low-level Ridge Over The Southeastern United States And The Eastern

Gulf Of Mexico...and Between Two Segments Of A Mid-level Ridge.

Large-scale Models Unanimously Agree That These Ridges Will Break

Down During The Next 48-72 Hr As A Strong Deep-layer Trough Causes

A Frontal Low To Form Over Florida Or The Eastern Gulf Of Mexico.

This Evolution Should Cause Gamma To Turn Northeastward Or Possibly

East-northeastward As The Surface Low Develops. The Global Models

Continue To Show A Weaker Gamma Turning More Eastward Across The

Northwestern Caribbean...while The Gfdl With Its Stronger Storm

Calls For A Northeastward Motion Near The Northern Edge Of The

Guidance Envelope. The New Track Forecast Is Closest To...but

South Of...the Gfdl...and Is Nudged To The Southeast Of The

Previous Forecast Based On The Current Position And Motion. This

Is Still A Somewhat Uncertain Forecast...and Additional Changes To

The Track Could Occur Later Today Or Tonight Based On Data From The

Flight Of The Noaa G4 Jet Starting At 18z.

 

Gamma Is Already Under Moderate To Strong Southwesterly Vertical

Shear...and The Large-scale Models Forecast The Shear To Increase

During The Next 72 Hr. This Should Not Allow Gamma To Strengthen

Significantly. The Ships Model Weakens The System...while The Gfdl

Calls For It To Peak At 60 Kt In About 48 Hr. The Latter Might Be

A Bit Optimistic In Light Of The Forecast Shear. The Intensity

Forecast Will Call For Some Modest Strengthening In The First 12

Hr...then Keep The Intensity At 45 Kt Through The Rest Of The Life

Of The Cyclone. The Baroclinic Low And Associated Cold Front Are

Forecast To Be Strong Enough That...regardless Of The Exact Track

Of Gamma...they Should Absorb Gamma After 72 Hr.

 

The Recent Microwave Data Suggest That The Center Might Be A Little

Farther Southeast Of The New Advisory Position. If This Is The

Case...an Additional Re-location May Be Necessary After The Air

Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Reaches The Storm Around 18z.

 

Forecaster Beven

 

 

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

 

Initial 19/1500z 16.8n 85.9w 40 Kt

12hr Vt 20/0000z 17.6n 86.4w 45 Kt

24hr Vt 20/1200z 18.7n 86.4w 45 Kt

36hr Vt 21/0000z 20.0n 85.8w 45 Kt

48hr Vt 21/1200z 21.9n 84.0w 45 Kt

72hr Vt 22/1200z 27.5n 76.0w 45 Kt...becoming Extratropical

96hr Vt 23/1200z...absorbed By Extratropical Low

[vicocala]

Tropical Storm Gamma Discussion Number 17

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

10 Pm Est Sat Nov 19 2005

 

Intermittent And Small Bursts Of Deep Convection Have Been Occurring

Mainly To The North Of The Low Level Center During The Past Few

Hours. Fairly Strong Wind Shear Continues To Displace The

Convection Away From The Center And Prohibit It From Persisting.

The Low-level Center Has Become Mostly Obscured In Infrared

Imagery... But Its Estimated Location Relative To The Downshear

Convection Is Consistent With An Extrapolated Position Based On The

Earlier Aircraft Positions. The Motion During The Past Few

Hours Has Been Northeastward Or About 050/5... But This Motion Might

Not Yet Be Definitive. A General North-northeastward Motion Is

Forecast During The Next 24 Hours Or So While Gamma Is West Of A

Weak Mid-level Ridge And While The Low-level Center Is Dragged

Along By The Convection Sheared From The South-southwest.

 

The Upper-level Trough Currently Over The Central United States Is

Forecast By All Of The Dynamical Models To Deepen And Move To The

Southeast During The Next Couple Of Days. The Models Also Continue

To Forecast The Associated Development Of An Extratropical Low

Pressure System Over The Extreme Southeastern U.s. Or Northeastern

Gulf Of Mexico Within The Next 36 Hours Or So. As This System Then

Moves Up The East Coast Of The U.s... A Cold Front Should Move Into

The Caribbean Sea In 2-3 Days... With Gamma Advancing Ahead Of That

Front. Several Of The Models... Including The Gfs... Gfdl... And

Nogaps... Forecast Gamma To Meander Northwestward Until The Front

Arrives In The Caribbean... And Then Call For A Much Weaker Or

Possibly Dissipating Gamma To Move Eastward To The South Of Cuba.

One Problem With These Models Is That They Do Not Initialize The

Position Or Northeastward Motion Of Gamma Very Well... So Their

Eventual Their Tracks To The East Could Be Too Slow. The Official

Track Forecast Is East Of Most Of The Models During The First 36

Hours... But Thereafter It Generally Follows The Model Trends In

Anticipating A Weakening Gamma To Move Eastward Across Southern

Cuba Ahead Of The Front That Probably Will Eventually Absorb It.

 

No Further Strengthening Of Gamma Is Forecast... Since The Wind

Shear Is Only Expected To Increase Over The Western Caribbean As

The Mid-latitude Trough Proceeds Toward The Eastern U.s. And The

Gulf Of Mexico During The Next Couple Of Days. The Ships Guidance

Forecasts Steady Weakening... Only Holding On To Tropical Storm

Strength For About 24 More Hours. The Gfdl Forecast Of

Intensification To About 60 Kt Within The Next Two Days Is

Discounted Due To The Established Track Record Of That Model

Over-intensifying Systems In A Strongly Sheared Environment. The

New Official Forecast Does Not Quite Show The Rate Of Weakening

That The Ships Guidance Does... But It Is A Downward Adjustment

Compared To The Previous Advisory. Gamma Could Weaken Faster Than

Forecast And Perhaps Dissipate Before It Ever Becomes Entangled

With The Cold Front.

 

 

Forecaster Knabb

 

 

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

 

Initial 20/0300z 16.6n 84.5w 40 Kt

12hr Vt 20/1200z 17.3n 84.2w 40 Kt

24hr Vt 21/0000z 18.4n 84.1w 35 Kt

36hr Vt 21/1200z 19.5n 83.1w 35 Kt

48hr Vt 22/0000z 20.7n 80.6w 35 Kt

72hr Vt 23/0000z 21.0n 73.0w 30 Kt...extratropical

96hr Vt 24/0000z...absorbed By Front

[LoveLifeAtSea]

I'm just hoping that the cold front will move far enough south to keep this storm way to our south (as in out in the water south of Florida).

 

We're just all so tired of the waiting and the worrying and the wondering. It's just enough.

 

I hope and pray the same for you and the rest of Florida, Heather!

 

Enough is Enough!!

[torpeedo]

News this morning says it's going to skip Florida!! :p I am sure you guys are happy. Plus it's now not even a tropical storm.. whew!!

Bad news is there is rain that is going to move up the east coast next week, just in time for holiday travel..:mad: We will be driving from SC to Tampa on Thanksgiving day to catch the Veendam on Saturday.. Hope the rain will have passed by SC by the time we get on the road..