Carnival Corp: 25 Ships Operating Could Cover Pause Costs for Fleet

[firefly333]

Oh surprise surprise, the next trading day after the pop from a upgrade from one analyst among many, the stock is down.

 

As noted above the only play friday was sell on the pop or sell short. Ccl is in a trading range. Gets up to 29 and sells off, traders buy again, here around 27, sell again at 29. Dont make the mistake of thinking ccl is a value here, it's just trading up and down here. Without earnings unlikely to break out.

[BlerkOne]

58 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

Oh surprise surprise, the next trading day after the pop from a upgrade from one analyst among many, the stock is down.

 

As noted above the only play friday was sell on the pop or sell short. Ccl is in a trading range. Gets up to 29 and sells off, traders buy again, here around 27, sell again at 29. Dont make the mistake of thinking ccl is a value here, it's just trading up and down here. Without earnings unlikely to break out.

Shocking that the major indices are negative. I wouldn't think that CCL would have that big of an impact on the market.

[BlerkOne]

On 4/10/2021 at 10:00 AM, Joebucks said:

 

Considering they are $30 now while shut down with no path to cruising, $40 could happen at the first announcement.

Easily. or much higher if someone pulls a Gamestop. I don't think an announcement is imminent for Carnival.

 

There are less risky bets but in any event, many think the markets are overvalued.

[firefly333]

Just now, BlerkOne said:

Shocking that the major indices are negative. I wouldn't think that CCL would have that big of an impact on the market.

Didnt say ccl had any impact on the market. Zero, none. Friday ccl was a sell on the news pop. It's down more than the overall dow. Though the dow selling off isnt helping.

 

Some things that do influence the market, every time the 10 year note goes up, tech sells off. Interest rates are forecast to rise. 

 

So much liquidity, stocks are almost bubble priced right now but there is no other place to go with cash. At some pt the market should pull back but no one can figure out when, meanwhile new highs keep being set. I do agree with what you said ccl isnt the only stock overvalued right now. 

[firefly333]

13 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

Easily. or much higher if someone pulls a Gamestop. I don't think an announcement is imminent for Carnival.

 

There are less risky bets but in any event, many think the markets are overvalued.

If you know charts and support and resistance ... imo if the market sells off, ccl is more apt to break support and go lower than it is to break out here. Charts dont agree with it will go higher. Resistance is below $30, and many traders, funds will use chart fundamentals. 

 

Unless you believe ccl will announce cruising from the USA it wouldn't break past resistance any time soon. Every time right now it pops there are traders shorting. 

 

Bearish pattern, the only buyers should be day traders, not those going long.

Edited April 12, 2021 by firefly333

[BlerkOne]

21 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

If you know charts and support and resistance ... imo if the market sells off, ccl is more apt to break support and go lower than it is to break out here. Charts dont agree with it will go higher. Resistance is below $30, and many traders, funds will use chart fundamentals. 

 

Unless you believe ccl will announce cruising from the USA it wouldn't break past resistance any time soon. Every time right now it pops there are traders shorting. 

 

Bearish pattern, the only buyers should be day traders, not those going long.

 

 

CCL has plenty of cash to sail without sailing well into 2022. Of course they can't keep losing money forever. I wouldn't bet the farm on any stock right now.

 

52 Week Range 10.95 - 30.63

 

[firefly333]

1 minute ago, BlerkOne said:

 

CCL has plenty of cash to sail without sailing well into 2022. Of course they can't keep losing money forever. I wouldn't bet the farm on any stock right now.

 

52 Week Range 10.95 - 30.63

 

Which has nothing to do with the current trading range its stuck in. .. other than if there was a worry it would go bankrupt it would be much lower.

 

People also arent factoring in how much dilution has been added. If it was worth $30 a hear ago, it's worth less now taking on much more debt, and selling more secondary shares. The good news is it was able to sell bonds and more shares to stay afloat. We agree there.

 

For anyone looking to go long, look up charts, trading range. This is a dow stock (3 letters) not a Nasdaq stock (4 letters, like amzn) so will tend to move more with the dow. Not trying to talk down to people, but I'm seeing some naive comments. Better to be educated when it comes to investing. 

[BlerkOne]

5 hours ago, firefly333 said:

 

People also arent factoring in how much dilution has been added. If it was worth $30 a hear ago, it's worth less now taking on much more debt, and selling more secondary shares. The good news is it was able to sell bonds and more shares to stay afloat. We agree there.

 

Did anyone factor in Carnival's stock buybacks over the years? Or stock options that were exercised or expired?

 

Something Carnival is doing is replacing expensive debt with cheaper debt

[tqc_cruiser]

Sometimes stock prices have so little relation to fundamentals (for example, GME) that it becomes difficult to make predictions based on "facts."

 

I mean, Carnival stock could actually dip if they announced a resumption of cruising at this point....There may be people betting on Carnival because they are anticipating that one of her competitors will be forced into bankruptcy.  

 

Carnival has the ability to survive longer than other cruise lines without revenue, but I don't understand the current price.

 

Having said that, I am in no way saying that one should sell (or hold, or buy for that matter).  When I say I don't understand, I am being sincere, not that others are wrong about being bullish.

 

I used to think that stock prices should have some relationship to profits, price-to-earnings ratios and the like.  But obviously I am being "quaint or old-fashioned."

 

 

 

 

[firefly333]

1 hour ago, tqc_cruiser said:

Sometimes stock prices have so little relation to fundamentals (for example, GME) that it becomes difficult to make predictions based on "facts."

 

I used to think that stock prices should have some relationship to profits, price-to-earnings ratios and the like.  But obviously I am being "quaint or old-fashioned."

 

I agree with you about fundamentals.  Though growth enters into it too.

 

GME and the meme stocks were low float, heavily shorted stocks. Some guys thought about it and saw GME was shorted 130%. ..more than the total float of the stock was short. Like that kids game with one less chair than the number of kids. If they bought the stock and it went up, the shorts had to buy it too at higher and higher prices to close their short position. It has nothing to do with fundamentals. Imo more than 100% of outstanding shares shouldn't be allowed to be short. Some kids figured that out too. 

 

We agree. I'm not saying to sell or hold or whatever, just how its trading. Trading is always short term based on the charts. .. .though with the ceo saying 2023 before it recovers, I personally wouldnt go long and wait that long. I'd want something moving and making money for me short term. 

 

Of course I kept my 100 shares of ccl for obc on cruises.

[firefly333]

J n J has been put on pause. This could be the start of a sell off, going to be a important trading day if the market stays down. With J n J stopped will slow the economy reopening. Worries about inflation so far shrugged off. Dow futures down 100 now as the news hits.