CCL releases Q423 Earnings Report

[HappyInVan]

44 minutes ago, TRLD said:

Talk about an absolutely absurd post. 

 

 

You're the one who is in favour of keeping the old ships, You cited those examples. I'm asking you if HAL customers would be willing to sail on those ships?

 

Certainly, we would be happy to sail on the modernized Crystal ships, but that's at a different price point. No?

[TRLD]

14 minutes ago, HappyInVan said:

 

You're the one who is in favour of keeping the old ships, You cited those examples. I'm asking you if HAL customers would be willing to sail on those ships?

 

Certainly, we would be happy to sail on the modernized Crystal ships, but that's at a different price point. No?

The ships that HAL currently has YES.  Many HAL cruisers prefer the Zaandam and Volendam ships so certainly they would continue to sail those two if HAL kept them a few more years.

 

Just to be precise my position is that HAL could keep their older ships to fill in the gap until new ships are ordered.  Just as the other the other lines could since CCL has not placed any new ship orders while they are focused on debt reduction at this time and probably for the next couple of years.  

 

Once they place new orders most likely HAL will get new ships in the 2500 to 3000 passenger size, similar to their most recent class.  Potentially a version of the most recent Cunard ship.

 

You ignored the fact that Azamara and Oceania also have similarly aged ships and focused on the two extremes Crystal with the long dry dock and the Carnival and P&O Australia, As well as Fred Olsen which is interesting in that you liked someone's post when they used them as an example of what HAL could do.

 

 

 

 

Edited December 24, 2023 by TRLD

[HappyInVan]

1 hour ago, TRLD said:

The ships that HAL currently has YES.  Many HAL cruisers prefer the Zaandam and Volendam ships so certainly they would continue to sail those two if HAL kept them a few more years.

 

Just to be precise my position is that HAL could keep their older ships to fill in the gap until new ships are ordered.  Just as the other the other lines could since CCL has not placed any new ship orders while they are focused on debt reduction at this time and probably for the next couple of years.  

 

Once they place new orders most likely HAL will get new ships in the 2500 to 3000 passenger size, similar to their most recent class.  Potentially a version of the most recent Cunard ship.

 

 

My point is that many HAL customers would be willing to sail with the old ships, as long as real prices are dropping. Customers only pay what they perceive to be equal to the value they get.

 

As long as income from the old ships are low, quality will suffer as maintenance costs rise. Reinforcing the marketplace perception of a declining brand.

 

HAL/CCL isn't a charity. They will turn a profit, and only deliver what you paid,

 

Why is brand image important? The willingness of customers to pay more is paramount to the survival of old ships. Crystal remains confident in their ships because their price point is very different from Carnaval and HAL. They can afford to invest in the ships.

 

What does HAL need to do in terms of positioning? It needs to find a niche where customers are willing to pay more (not less). Larger ships mean that customers expect to pay Carnaval prices. On the other hand, sexy mid-sized ships  generate interest among customers willing to pay more. 

 

Will HAL order new medium ships? Not likely as long as the bean counters run the company. Larger ships are more efficient. There is the future of HAL. In this strategy, it would be in HAL's interest to phase out the old ships before the brand is damaged further.

 

Edited December 24, 2023 by HappyInVan

[TRLD]

28 minutes ago, HappyInVan said:

 

My point is that many HAL customers would be willing to sail with the old ships, as long as real prices are dropping. Customers only pay what they perceive to be equal to the value they get.

 

As long as income from the old ships are low, quality will suffer as maintenance costs rise. Reinforcing the marketplace perception of a declining brand.

 

HAL/CCL isn't a charity. They will turn a profit, and only deliver what you paid,

 

Why is brand image important? The willingness of customers to pay more is paramount to the survival of old ships. Crystal remains confident in their ships because their price point is very different from Carnaval and HAL. They can afford to invest in the ships.

 

What does HAL need to do in terms of positioning? It needs to find a niche where customers are willing to pay more (not less). Larger ships mean that customers expect to pay Carnaval prices. On the other hand, sexy mid-sized ships  generate interest among customers willing to pay more. 

 

Will HAL order new medium ships? Not likely as long as the bean counters run the company. Larger ships are more efficient. There is the future of HAL. In this strategy, it would be in HAL's interest to phase out the old ships before the brand is damaged further.

 

Some of HALs highest priced fares are on those smaller older ships.  That is because those ships are sailing some of longer unique itineraries.

 

Everything you are saying appears to be that because you do not like the changes in HAL no one else does either.  You consider the brand to be "damaged".  There are many that are happy with the brand.  We like the unique itineraries, we like the ship size.  We like that the food quality is better than the other mass market lines.  Quite a few of the HAL old timers are still sailing on the line not in spite of the small old ships, but because of them and the itineraries that they sail to.

 

Just as an example.  Picked 5 cruises at random from the HAL web site and calculated the minimum fare

 

per  passenger per day

240    27 Day Amazon

136  7 day Alaska inner passage

142  14 day Hawaii

168  16 Day Hawaii

173   Panama Canal

 

Pretty clear that the longer unique voyages command a premium.

 

Did the same with one of the newest ships (Nieuw Amsterdam)

 

This ship does not serve any of the longer unique routes

 

174 Panama Canal    

126 Alaska inner passage

 

Note that the newer ship is basically at the same or lower price when doing the same routes as the older small ships that you say is ruining the brand.

[OlsSalt]

Higher-priced Prinsendam never lacked for long-term passenger loyalty within the HAL brand.

 

And she was one of the most awkwardly designed and dated ships of them all - but the intimacy of her small size (600 or so passengers) and the privileged itineraries (the Elegant Explorer) were keen selling points for HAL's very old Prinsendam for many mainline HAL passengers.  

 

What was the magic that kept the Prinsendam floating as long as she could. I remember staff reports saying they would hate to lose her loyal customer base if she was ever sold. 

[BermudaBound2014]

6 minutes ago, OlsSalt said:

Higher-priced Prinsendam never lacked for long-term passenger loyalty within the HAL brand.

 

And she was one of the most awkwardly designed and dated ships of them all - but the intimacy of her small size (600 or so passengers) and the privileged itineraries (the Elegant Explorer) were keen selling points for HAL's very old Prinsendam for many mainline HAL passengers.  

 

What was the magic that kept the Prinsendam floating as long as she could. I remember staff reports saying they would hate to lose her loyal customer base if she was ever sold. 

 

Yet she sold.

[TRLD]

5 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Yet she sold.

Because she aged out of the fleet at a time, unlike today, when there new ships on order and fleet capacity was expanding. A different situation then today, where no new ships have been ordered for any CCL brand since the restart.  The only choice available for the next couple of years is keep the old ship longer, or reduce fleet capacity.

 

Once we get to 2026 we will probably see new orders starting to be placed once more and the entire issue goes away with a return to past normal practice.

[HappyInVan]

1 hour ago, TRLD said:

Some of HALs highest priced fares are on those smaller older ships.  That is because those ships are sailing some of longer unique itineraries.

 

 

Sure. Some of the unique cruises command a higher price. But, there's only enough cruise days for just one of the smaller ships. The WC is only 4 months. In any case, all of the older ships have problems that require modernization, not just a decor refresh.

 

IMO, its still better for HAL is have at least one new mid-size flagship. 

 

I remember Henk Drapper, captain of K'dam, saying that the K'dam was so much more fuel efficient then the old Rotterdam. So, on the Panama and Alaska cruises, the old ships cost much more to operate while yielding the same fare. And, generating more complaints about facilities, HVAC, plumbing etc.

Edited December 24, 2023 by HappyInVan

[TRLD]

59 minutes ago, HappyInVan said:

 

Sure. Some of the unique cruises command a higher price. But, there's only enough cruise days for just one of the smaller ships. The WC is only 4 months. In any case, all of the older ships have problems that require modernization, not just a decor refresh.

 

IMO, its still better for HAL is have at least one new mid-size flagship. 

 

I remember Henk Drapper, captain of K'dam, saying that the K'dam was so much more fuel efficient then the old Rotterdam. So, on the Panama and Alaska cruises, the old ships cost much more to operate while yielding the same fare. And, generating more complaints about facilities, HVAC, plumbing etc.

The cruise I listed was not a world cruise.  HAL has quite a few long cruises in addition to the world cruises.  Some costs yes, but even on the very competitive 7 day Alaska the smaller ship showed a higher per passenger per day minimum price.  Especially on the entire group of Legendary Voyages in addition to the World Cruise and the Grand Voyages.

 

Again my point is that since there are not any new ships orders being placed by any of the CCL brands, the only choice that HAL and the other brands have is to either continue to use their older smaller ships or to reduce the size of their fleet.  As I have indicated they are certainly capable or operating  the older ships for a few additional years until CCL starts placing new orders.  Probably around 2026 or so.  

 

A new ship is more efficient, but not having a ship generates even less revenue.  

 

An older inefficient ship may be more profitable on a longer trip like the 50 day south pacific or the other legendary voyages, if it sails full compared to a newer ship that is not full.

 

Once CCL starts ordering new ships then things return to normal and the old rules about ship retirements will return.

 

Lots of people have sailed on them and have not encountered these vast issues that you imply are present.  Some have sailed on the newest ships and have encountered issues.  Are older ships likely to have a higher number of incidents, sure.  But having sailed on many ships of all age ones odds of encountering a problem is not significantly higher.  Of course some people everything is a problem.

Edited December 24, 2023 by TRLD

[HappyInVan]

10 minutes ago, TRLD said:

Again my point is that since there are not any new ships orders being placed by any of the CCL brands, the only choice that HAL and the other brands have is to either continue to use their older smaller ships or to reduce the size of their fleet.  As I have indicated they are certainly capable or operating  the older ships for a few additional years until CCL starts placing new orders.  Probably around 2026 or so.  

 

 

It is entirely possible that HAL will not see new ships till 2029 if new orders only start in 2026. That means that the R ships will be really old. The Volendam will be 30 years old.

 

IMO, there's nothing wrong with retiring one ship per year from 2025. This will tighten up the occupancy for the rest of the fleet; resulting in the higher yields that HAL needs.

 

It is also possible that HAL will not be building any mid-size ships. So, that will be a game changer. Can the S ships sail into the Amazon River?

 

The future is uncertain. Better not count your chickens before they hatch.

[TRLD]

14 minutes ago, HappyInVan said:

 

It is entirely possible that HAL will not see new ships till 2029 if new orders only start in 2026. That means that the R ships will be really old. The Volendam will be 30 years old.

 

IMO, there's nothing wrong with retiring one ship per year from 2025. This will tighten up the occupancy for the rest of the fleet; resulting in the higher yields that HAL needs.

 

It is also possible that HAL will not be building any mid-size ships. So, that will be a game changer. Can the S ships sail into the Amazon River?

 

The future is uncertain. Better not count your chickens before they hatch.

There is always the less than 14 year old 2100 to 2700 passenger ships over with Aida, now that they have had their fleet capacity dramatically increased with the addition of their 5000 passenger ships.

[HappyInVan]

13 minutes ago, TRLD said:

There is always the less than 14 year old 2100 to 2700 passenger ships over with Aida, now that they have had their fleet capacity dramatically increased with the addition of their 5000 passenger ships.

 

Speculative!. Have you any idea what the decor of an AIDA ship look like? It would require a drydock of many months to convert to HAL colors and usage. 

 

Anyway, the bean counters might just simplify the fleet and abandon some ports. 

 

Don't overthink the situation. Its very simple. The ergonomics of the old ships are outdated. The economics of the old ships are poor. Like me, you can look elsewhere.

 

There's Ponant (beautiful new small ships) and Hurtigruten (for the serious adventurer). There's Explora for a little more cash than a SS suite. For exclusivity, MSC YC is serious value for your money.

 

Enjoy your life. Don't waste hours defending the obsolete.

Edited December 24, 2023 by HappyInVan

[TRLD]

9 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

 

Speculative!. Have you any idea what the decor of an AIDA ship look like? It would require a drydock of many months to convert to HAL colors and usage. 

 

Anyway, the bean counters might just simplify the fleet and abandon some ports. 

 

Don't overthink the situation. Its very simple. The ergonomics of the old ships are outdated. The economics of the old ships are poor. Like me, you can look elsewhere.

 

There's Ponant (beautiful new small ships) and Hurtigruten (for the serious adventurer). There's Explora for a little more cash than a SS suite. For exclusivity, MSC YC is serious value for your money.

 

Enjoy your life. Don't waste hours defending the obsolete.

Sure but it's cheaper that losing the capacity when no new ships are available.

 

 Go look elsewhere. I will continue to sail on HAL, just as I will on 7 other lines during the next 12 months.

 

 

[ChinaShrek]

10 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

 

There's Ponant (beautiful new small ships) and Hurtigruten (for the serious adventurer). There's Explora for a little more cash than a SS suite. For exclusivity, MSC YC is serious value for your money.

 

Do these lines offer cheap or "free" casino cruises for gamblers? If not, I'll pass thank you.

[HappyInVan]

10 minutes ago, ChinaShrek said:

Do these lines offer cheap or "free" casino cruises for gamblers? If not, I'll pass thank you.

 

Sorry! You get the privilege of paying C$1k/day.