Farts

I opted for a full refund. Cash is king, assuming we stop printing money of course, lol. 

I want to sign up. I am fully vaccinated already

On 1/19/2021 at 12:52 PM, Lady Arwen said:

I believe you are right.  Also, it’s doubtful that the Canada will be welcoming US residents into Canada for quite some time.  

This is the biggest hurdle that I see. Our cases keep exploding and deaths are skyrocketing 

On 1/21/2021 at 10:57 AM, iancal said:

HAL's marketing direction was certainly indecipherable to us over the past ten years.  They appear to have focused on stealth marketing.

 

To me, Oprah isn't exactly stealth

The vaccine roll out has been a nightmare. Some hospitals haven't even fully vaccinated their Drs and RNs.

Thankfully my institute is on it and I am fully vaccinated. 

8 hours ago, Roger88 said:

Even if asteroids hit the Earth, cruising will not stop. Like any other business it will operate as long as there is a place to operate and the people who like the services that you provide. I am sure such occasions happend before and nothing tremendously terrible happend. Its life and everything can happen. The only thing that I can wish everyone is not to give up and believe in your dreams and perusing them 

🤣 A cruise ship should be the safest place if that were to happen

To answer op question, yes, i'll sail again. It will be a while though since the CDC put in new restrictions on the cruise industry being responsible for getting people home (or something like that, I saw it on youtube so I haven't verified it personally)

On 4/4/2020 at 11:36 AM, SeaShark said:

To further the post above, the FMC handles this through the Bureau of Certification and Licensing's Office of Passenger Vessels and Information Processing (OPVIP).

 

OPVIP issues certificates to operators of passenger vessels with 50 or more berths and that embark passengers from U.S. ports (PVOs). The Certificate (Performance) evidences that the PVO has on file with the Commission acceptable coverage to satisfy any liability incurred for nonperformance of transportation, such as when a PVO declares bankruptcy and fails to complete the cruises booked. The coverage is used to reimburse passengers when the PVO fails to perform cruises as contracted and has taken no further actions to refund passengers. The Certificate (Casualty) evidences that the PVO has acceptable coverage to satisfy any liability incurred for death or injury on file with the Commission.

Do we get full refund? Or partial?

On 4/4/2020 at 10:40 PM, npcl said:

Look at the airline bankruptcies and you would get an idea.  The restructuring process does not stop operations, if they were running.  In a restructuring the stockholders are wiped and what you usually get is often debtor in possession.  When those that have already loaned money to the company get equity in in exchange for their bonds.  Additional stock is issued to provide the funds to provide the necessary operating funds for the company to get through and restart.  As part of this process they can also get rid of any contracts that are not helpful.  They could for example eliminate the new build contracts.  They could also use the restructuring to right size the company for what they expect to see when cruising starts up again.

 

You would not see anyone take ships, they would go for the entire enterprise.  Another possibility would be a investment firm like Apollo who could step in very cheaply, take the entire company private, This is similar to what happened to NCL a few years ago. Apollo is the company that did it with NCL.

 

If the company you worked for was shut down for nine months it was most likely not a financial restructuring, but instead a full BK where someone bought the assets of the company out of BK. No need to shutdown operations in a financial restructuring.

I see this happening or something similar. The assets are worth something for sure. And people know it.

On 4/4/2020 at 7:41 PM, npcl said:

The stock can get to zero, RCL declare bankruptcy, and everything related to passengers be unaffected.  Not so much for shareholders which would get wiped out. 

 

The airlines have done it several times. Declare bankruptcy, issue new stock, primarily to the debt holders, while leaving the passenger deposits, credits intact.

 

The cruise lines have some debts, but lots of assets.  What they don't have is lots of cash.  So worse comes to worse they declare BK, restructure the company, terminate unfavorable contracts (probably those for the new builds) and raise cash and eliminate the debts.  Happens all the time.

I don't people on all of CC don't understand the gravity or the wisdom of your post.

59 minutes ago, ed01106 said:

Yup. Figuring  anywhere from 5% to 15% above the low watermark.  But they aren’t going to climb to double in value anytime quickly.  I can’t time the market.  But I can stay out until the very real risk of the stocks going to zero subsides.  When the US numbers pass Italy the stocks will be lower than they are today.  

I 100% agree with you. Only then would i invest.

Trump says a lot of things.

Don't expect a bail out.

2 hours ago, Da-Painter said:

Sure, as well as a lot of other companies, like various cruise lines, no company is invencible. be careful throwing money at stocks, now is not the time to buy, I look for a 15,000 target on the Dow, before this is over. Some may not like the sound of this, call me crazy, but I have seen this scenario play out in 1987, 2001, 2007-8, and again today. Soon you will hear about the bond defaults occurring: companies, cities, states, countries, airport, etc. The unemployment rate will increase, no one is going to want to buy a new car, house, major expenditures. 

Good luck. 

last week we joked about trump bailing out the cruise companies. lol.

and now the bailout comes with stipulations that these cruise companies cannot/don't want to meet.

18 minutes ago, fstuff1 said:

ncl is at 9.40 premarket 😮

Geez...

This to me is ridiculous. What happens if a doctor signs off on someone going to a cruise and they get sick and die? Am I then liable for writing that note? My med mal insurance would skewer me. idk if any insurance company would cover that kind of med mal payout bc it's known that ppl >70 yo are at an inc risk for death from covid 19.

15 hours ago, AviationInScale said:

 

Gastroenterology? Love your username lol.

I won't say 😉

Glad you like my username

8 hours ago, elwood_98034 said:

US population 327.2 million (2018)

Infection rate per Merkel 60%+

Fatality rate WHO v's Italy = 5% (est)

330,000,000x0.6x.05= 9,900,000

8 hours ago, njhorseman said:

Nope...they just repeated the error they made in the first post. If the first sentence in the second post was written "20 million deaths is 7% of roughly 285 million people" rather than ".7% of roughly 285 million people" it would be absolutely correct. And again, 7% is the approximate current death rate in Italy.

@elwood_98034 already admitted that he made a minor mistake in calculation. Cut him some slack. Physicians aren't the greatest at math. That's why the stereotype of so many of us going into financial ruin is so prevalent and kind of founded.

But in his defense, the statistics are skewed. We can discuss about how the denominator doesn't reflect the true amount of total infected or how the numerator isn't truly capturing all deaths and etc.

And @njhorseman, I am a physician who does research and sees patients. If you want to dig into the nitty gritty, there is one big bias that we are all making. There is an issue of generalizability. The population around the world looks very different than the population we have in the states in regard to obesity, diabetes, etc. So our mortality rate may actually be higher. Who knows?

Working in medicine is a calling. And I admire my colleagues who have high risk conditions who go into work everyday to care for patients. I am a young doctor, so my chances of dying are low (if you believe the statistics, lol!).

9 hours ago, ColeThornton said:

 

Sometimes it's just a good idea to step away from the keyboard for a bit.

This is a lil rude. Here's why.

@elwood_98034 reaction also shows the mental toll that medicine takes onto health care workers during times of pandemics.

This is called secondary trauma.

When you read about physician burn out, physician suicide, and about us "rich" doctors complaining about our salary, this is a good glimpse into what we deal with on a daily basis. We have MAJOR cuts to the nih and our health care system, yet the public and Trump expect our colleagues to produce cures to the corona virus in a jiffy.

6 hours ago, Da-Painter said:

Anyone who believes what he says, gets what they deserve. Good luck there...........

LOL! 100% Agree.

But you would be surprised who believe him.

1 minute ago, Da-Painter said:

Look at Boeing, BA, they had plane orders for years. A botched plane, a halted travel industry, factories laying off, cancelled plane orders. That high flyin' stock was up to almost $450 a year ago, today $155, and I wouldn't touch it now. Circumstances can change real fast sometimes. The cruise/travel industry is going to be in trouble for some time. I don't see the government bailing them out, they are foreign registered ships, mostly all foreign workers, why would our government care about them.

bc trump said he would help.

Is NCL really that much in the wrong?

Trump basically said the same thing. So what NCL are saying could potentially be construed as not entirely unfounded, since the leader of the free world said it.

2 minutes ago, Newleno said:

it is called BK, probably within the next 90 days

Agreed. So sad to see my favorite cruise company on the brink of BK.

6 minutes ago, ano said:

That isn't always possible or cheap to do.

The flip side is how can NCL take delivery of 6 lenardo ships when they can't pay for the ones that they have now (and have to put up their current ship up as collateral)?

Cruise lines have done it before, but I assume it was incredibly expensive with lots of penalties.

1 minute ago, ano said:

Do your research, but also check how many new ships with all cruise lines will come on board in the next few years. NCL/Oceania alone has 10 ordered in just the next 7 years. Add in Carnival, RC and all the others and you have LOTS of ships. Some might say TOO many, but we shall see. What this means is its possible all won't survive. There lots of bets on the China market, but it might not turn out a rosy as some had assumed.

I suspect that they will be cancelling on a lot of ship orders after all this.

If they discontinue the obc, then the stock will take another big hit imo. pure conjecture of course.

33 minutes ago, coevan said:

 

 

that's your opinion and it will dip further until this settles 

Feel the same way. We don't know what the current valuation of the company is. Even the book value isn't clear in this market.

I'll buy when things stabilize and I am more confident they don't restructure and wipe all these shares clean.