mredandchis

3 hours ago, ProgRockCruiser said:

Unfortunately that isn't the case here in FL.  This morning Publix opened up the appts for Wed-Fri, and already they are almost all gone - just a few counties up in the panhandle seem to have some slots left at a few stores.  It probably filled up for most locations by 9am, within two hours of opening up. I assume that is the case of other vaccination appt booking engines.  Of course, some/all FEMA sites are walk-up.

 

This is the week it opened up to 40 and over - next week is 18 and over.  Gonna be a long haul getting everyone (who wants one) a vaccination.  But we'll get there, hopefully by mid-May.

I have been analyzing Florida numbers, because my oldest boy lives there, and you will start to see the effects of the vaccine near the end of April as far and new cases will start to nose dive.  There is no exact line , but after that the 7 days averaging charts for new confirmed cases will decline like a plane on final.   About Jun 5 it will settle down and basic herd immunity should have a good hold. Then there will be those under 18 that will be making the media stories after that.  Of course that is saying that demand for vaccines hold steady and the virus doesn't come up with a vicious variant .

20 hours ago, ProgRockCruiser said:

Lol.  Available for scrambling to sign up for an appointment vs actually getting the vaccine are two different things.  Desantis is proud that the windows for signing up stay open for a few hours now.  Well duh, they still close, which means there are still people not able to book in, usually folks who are not super computer savvy.  And opening up to almost one third of the population (18 to 40) isn't going to help those folks 50 and over still trying to wrangle an appointment.

 

Most states should reach the target of 1 May for availability to all age groups, from what I gather.  That won't mean everyone will actually have been able to get the vaccine (both doses) - that will probably take another month or two to execute.

I have been noticing that appointment times are available longer than just 4 to 6 weeks ago here in NC.  Usually it was more like 30 mins and poof they were gone.  Now it is more like 24 to 36 hours.  To me this means that demand is down.  

I am concerned that we will have vaccines and no one willing to schedule appointments.  That time is coming and I hope you are correct that for the first 30 days of the 'everyone else' group that we match arms and shots.  We are inching closer to herd immunity.  

I like the sound of this.  It seems reasonable to start cruising.  Maybe these cruises will pave the way for the CDC.  Fingers crossed that it works. 

Pennsylvania

1 hour ago, jetsfan58 said:

Call me old fashioned. I am still perplexed at why we are "pushing" and/or "insisting" that these teen children accompany us to these adult based venues? Can someone please help me understand this? When we were teens we did teen things. Have times changed that much?     

I don't know about "old Fashioned" because better than 50 years ago my dad would stop into a beer garden with me to have one.  It was semi common, in fact he took my son once  sometime in the 70's , no one thought twice about it.  

I think there will be rust.  They are a bunch sitting off the coast of Miami about half way to the Bahamas.  Not sure if they are hanging over the side painting out there.

Everything is very iffy right now.  There needs to be a test cruise and then a 60 eval before we start sailing .  It will be hard to get it all in before June.  July maybe.  The US will hit a good herd immunity before June.  But will the powers to be react and get july ships into the water. 

8 minutes ago, Pizzasteve said:

Its important to note that the data for Isreal is for people who are also social distancing and wearing masks, so the spreadability factor of the ship is an important reminder of why we should continue to wear masks and get everyone vaccinated.  Those 95% plus numbers are a great miracle, but the new varients we are seeing are up to twice as contagious or even moreso, if recent data is to be understood.  The more cases the more varients.  A recent New Yorker article on the varients was excellent.  I dont have a link but recommend searching it up.  Stay safe everyone and please vaccinate.  We have a limited opportunity to manage this illness globally and preventing cases, even nonsymptomatic ones, like in children, are critical to not create worse varients.

The wearing of masks at this time in Israelis is to avoid confusion according to goverment sources until they get more people vaccinated.  They are hovering around the 1 threshhold and need to get below that . Good news for you is this data is with the nation being attacked by 2 of the new variants, this is not just the original covid19.  There is also a new wave sweeping the planet.  Italy and Hungary are 2 that come to mind that are being overrun.  Israels' new cases are dropping dramatically every day and while the US is also dropping at a fairly steady pace Israel will duck under the US infection rate before the end of the month.  They are heading to prepandemic levels and may achieve it by summer.  

The Israelis are ahead of the world in vaccinations nearing 65 percent herd immunity.  But the important part is that they are studying the results as they go.  This article released of the latest study that shows overall that the Pfizer vaccine is not only 97 percent effective on preventing symptomatic illness , it is also 
94 percent effective in preventing asymptomatic illness. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/11/pfizer-covid-vaccine-blocks-94percent-of-asymptomatic-infections-and-97percent-of-symptomatic-cases-in-israeli-study.html    If someone would have said last april that we would have a vaccine that effective I would have laughed. After all the flu vaccine is 40 to 60 percent effective.  

I look back at the Diamond Princess and the Japanese testing of people on board for a period of over 2 weeks at the beginning of the Pandemic. Of about 3770 crew and passengers, by the end of the saga,  there were 306 symptomatic, 328 asymptomatic and tragically 13 deaths. Remember this is still before social distancing and masks but the ship was locked down and people were isolated after the virus started to spread.  That cruise was just like any cruise we all have been on until the spread.  And it ended up, as a petri dish for Covid19, that 9.2 percent of all onboard got covid-19.  But now add a vaccine.  

Things get a little sketchy with part of the people with immunity mixed with people who do not.  What the ratio will be is all guess work.  Herd immunity should be about 80 percent of the population having immunity to reach a threshold of less than 1.  Covid19 has a threshold of 2 - 3, the flu has 1 - 2 and norovirus is a 2.  So assuming there was no restrictions and a person boarded the ship with covid-19, he or she would have to 6 in 100 chance to spread it to someone that recovered from covid or has the vaccine.  And also will have a 1 in 19 chance to spread it to someone without immunity. They would have to find the weak link.  But then again the odds of hitting your number on a Roulette wheel is 1 in 37.

With that all said  there is a chance of covid-19 getting on your next cruise.  But there is no real chance of it infecting the entire ship , not like the Norovirus. Just my opinion.  

And one more thing,  until we get more people vaccinated and get into the "general all others" category of vaccine roll out, wear a mask in crowds and social distance, we got to keep the covid19 score down.

I have done 2 thanksgiving Carnival cruises.  Pretty much a normal cruise and they have christmas decorations up.  I wasn't thrilled with the turkey dinner either time and it was the only times I ever ordered something else after tasting it.  But I would go at thanksgiving again, just wont order turkey.  

Well I am vaccinated and the wife will be soon so we have a short in sept, a b2b in late nov and a New years eve starting the day after Christmas on that old Rust Bucket called the Carnival Mardi Gra.  LOL ok she will be only a year old and seldom used.  I am concerned about restrictions but I will figure it all out.

44 minutes ago, dbrucern said:

Haven't given up yet but certainly understand and support those that have.  Since I am a nurse that wore a mask and socially distanced for 10hrs a day 5 days a week for the last year while working in the Emergency Department, and I followed guidelines when not at work , I refuse to give up hope and let this pandemic win.  I just retired after 45yrs in the profession and while I sit at home with no mask and vaccinated, I still follow the guidelines but I would take any day on a ship in a mask and socially distancing than what we are all still going through.  This unfortunately may be the new norm.

Asking without malice. Why " the new norm"  ?   

If we get to a point where less people die of Covid19 than of the flu would that not mean we could drop all the restrictions?  We have a host of vaccines coming out and as we speak the short supply concept is fading as we will soon have enough doses to vaccinate every American.  

Plus there are new treatments being proposed and tested, I just read about one that is coming oit of phase 3 trials show 85 percent effectiveness on seriously ill patients.  

So i don't understand that we will have to genuflect to the powers to be for the rest of our lives.  One day this will all be behind us just like every other plague that has ripped across this planet.

30 minutes ago, SNJCruisers said:

The percentage chance of your August cruise sailing would increase if it's at the end of August, is a short cruise and goes out of Miami or PC.  But, if it's not, that 50/50 is 10/90.

Short cruise, 2nd half, outta PC on the Elation

7 hours ago, jdixon0631 said:

I have decided to give up on rebooking till cruises actually start sailing.  I’m sick and tired of the obc bait to rebook. We have had 7 cruises canceled. $4500 is tied up right now. We will book a cruise after carnival actually starts to sail without restrictions, if that ever happens 

When you say 4500, do you mean money that you are waiting on in a refund?  

I had 2 cruises cancelled and I rebooked them and got that OBC on both.  Then I had an Alaskan cruise that I had 750 paid and my wife simply cancelled it and it finally got back on the card.  

Then she pulled an interesting move.   She scheduled a Aug cruise.  I told her that is maybe a 50/50 chance of sailing, maybe even less.  She said "yeah I know, but if it sails that is cool , if it doesnt they will give me OBC and I will schedule for January.".  To her it is a win win.  

I am just not sure she is going to like a lockdown cruise.

Years ago we had a mid ship cabin and we were coming back to Charleston.  The weather got rough that day and they blocked off the promenade mid afternoon but it wasn't bad. 

Then we went to the show after dinner and I started to feel like I was in an elevator and asked my wife if she felt it. Before she could answer the bottom dropped out and the dancers were grabbing floor.  In those days they had a music pit and the music stopped.  Now we could easily feel the rise and drop. And the dancers did their best to continue. 

People were  walking out and my wife for the first time felt sick.  Inside the ship it was having a strong stench as people weren't making it to the rest rooms.  We headed to the lido for fresh air and there was one young man laying on a lounge in the dark covered in towels. He said he was on a lower deck near the bow and his window was going under water at every dip.

We arrived 3 hours late to the dock because we had lost a window near the front of the ship from wind and water. 

24 minutes ago, Buckeyefrank100 said:

I disagree wearing a mask currently is logical; however, I agree with you that herd immunity is around the corner.  An article in the WSJ just came out and a researcher claims by the end of April, it should be gone basically in the US.

I do think some researchers are a bit optimistic but I do hope they are correct.  On the flip side some thing it will be 2022, and these folks are pessimists.  

As far as the logic of wearing a mask now I would point out not everyone in serious danger of covid19 have been afforded an opportunity to get the vaccine.  Here in NC they will start on St Patties day for the last of the high risk people.  Once they have had the opportunity and either got it or refused it then the logic will be more in favor of a return to normalcy. 

We are closing in to 40 percent herd immunity.  End of April should be at current rates about 60 percent.  Israel is at 60 right now and they haven't shook it but are rapidly getting there even with the variants that have hit them. 

19 hours ago, Stick93 said:

Sound like their will be no fun for a while then.

If we are waiting for herd immunity we prob should all just sell our stock and move on.

 

Face covering will most likely become optional  at some point like in some states and then people are free to wear or not wear, There will never be a clear consensus on people agreeing what to do as everyone is emotionally charged one way or the other. The point will come where people who want continued restrictions and have no tolerance for the people who choice otherwise will have the choice of just staying stay home or joining the masses out. Things are moving to open up in all states. Its starting and it may have to do with some optimism in the vaccine or the point that people cannot take this much longer. 

 

 

FYI - Before anyone starts to argue or get political - I still plan on being a nut and wearing a mast, but I personally have no care as to what others do. If I am not comfortable somewhere I go somewhere else.

 

Herd immunity is coming, probably june, depending on the actual calcculations.  Israel will get there even sooner.  I will take wearing a mask as a logical decision, today it is logical.

6 hours ago, evandbob said:

Read an apt analogy IMO about the pandemic - there isn't any ON/OFF switch (cure)  yet.

 

Vaccines are like a dimmer, can get low, then brighter, then almost as dim.  We aren't there yet, more will be revealed.

On 3/10/2021 at 12:09 PM, Scottycruisin said:

All i know is that my appointment times open on 3-22 @ 8:00 a.m. for my vaccination.  I fully plan on being on the phone at 7:59 to book the first available slot.  I should be fully vaccinated by mid-May...depending on the first time available to me.

 

I can imagine at LEAST 90% of the population will get the vaccination...and perhaps that will be mandatory to go on a cruise?  

 

I sure cant see this being an issue 15 months from now....pending mutation of course...

 

Still hopeful!!!

yeah once you get the first appointment  they assign you the second at the center where you are getting the shot at .  Piece of advice, get it in the arm you DONT sleep on.  it will hurt the first night and laying on it will wake you up.   

But right now the polls are saying 60 percent plan on the vaccine which is up from 40 percent 6 months ago.  my neighbors on both sides are not planning on getting the vaccine.  It is there right of course but I now got both shots of Pfizer. 

5 hours ago, Aplmac said:

Gosh, you're optimistic!

 

I fully expect Covid-19/20/21 to drag on into /22 and maybe even /23

mainly due to folks getting fed up, and breaching protocols

but I hope you're right.

I would agree that 2021 is iffy but there will be sailing before the years end.  I don't see a need for "protocols" in 2022 at all.  But then if you are talking government over reach that may be possible.  You may need to back off MSM a bit.

CDC's answer doesn't feel real hopeful and  we are all anxious to get back to cruising but there is a light at the end of the tunnel but it is a long tunnel.  There has been some positive news coming out hear and there.

One thing that continues to bother me is we all took notice to this plague because it was killing off certain groups of people.  SO the idea was to protect the most vulnerable and we locked down , we  wear masks and social distance.  That helped but wasn't the answer.  And it wont be the answer on a cruise ship, even half loaded.  

Vaccines have come out and the vulnerable groups are getting the protection they need.  But at this time we have only reached  35pct  herd immunity in the US.  And we are gaining about 1/2 a percent per day, 7 days a week.  The Israelis are way ahead of us yet are only at 62 percent.  They have had a rough time recently  with new cases.  Israel will show the world early how well these vaccines work.  So I am routing for them. But there is no guarantees, we all need to wait and see.  They should hit herd immunity early in April. The US wont be till early June and most of the port of calls will be later than that.  

Almost 60 means the fire place is burning in NC.  Congrats on the cruise booking but we could never make it that long.  

6 minutes ago, jperry2011 said:

Pretty much. I don't see how it would be so hard to vaccinate some tour guides etc. For limited approved excursions just to get us going again.

AMEN brother or sister.  I am sitting on ready and rocking on go,  Got my 2nd today and now have to wait 2 weeks.  

Ok basically this would mean if everyone was vaccinated on board then it would be cruise like normal. BUT if the ship docks at any port of call then we would have the restriction while there? 

For us the social aspect of cruising is important..  I find a lot of cruisers are a lot of fun and good to know.  

When we first cruised we saw everything offered.  The games the shows and the food.  As time went by we changed and found ourselves just hanging out.  

I wonder how it will be socially on ship.  I think the masks and distancing will fall apart.  It is already falling apart at the local stores.  

In a few months those rules will be lifted or at least no longer will be logical to have.