bizinsider
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@toseaornottoseaThanks for the suggestion!
@nancygpI'm impressed you put 2+2 together! I take a back seat in all of this to Mary, whose writing style is considerably more elegant than mine! Mary is thrilled to know that you have followed her blog (themodernpostcard.com.😉) Hope we get a chance to meet on a cruise one day, and if you are ever on one that stops or starts in San Diego, let us know!
Herb
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Thanks Nancy and Dunnedge. It's such a tough call. We've were in Copenhagen for a few days before a Crystal cruise quite a few years ago, and did quite a bit. Plus this will be on a Sunday when some things we would like to repeat are closed. I would LOVE to leave the day we arrive, but the risk of the tight squeeze is concerning. So... we're likely to stay the night. We have great memories from our last visit.
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Thanks, Ira. This is actually for next June, and that flight is currently on the schedule. Just getting ready to book flights. I have a feeling we'll wind up overnighting.
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Hi all...
For those who have done a disembarkation on Seabourn in Copenhagen: The BA flight to LHR > the U.S. we need leaves at 10:50 a.m. The ship "arrives" at 7. We're debating overnighting vs. that morning. I'm curious what the recent experience has been for those with morning flights.
Thanks!
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I have to agree. I checked the filings as well and zero mention.
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This update - our agent says she was told by Seabourn that our "paid in full, plus payment for booked excursions" is held in escrow.
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I agree 5% or 10% produces a great rate of return (mine was 5%, struck back when rates were zero.) Just remember, high yield is high yield for a reason!
think the most bearish case is whether they have the ability to cover their interest coupled with the potential need to raise even more cash if thinks get... rocky. So, for example, if there's an "event" in China with Taiwan, or Russia invades Europe or this new variant of Omicron causes greater problems... who knows? I think that's his far outside most bearish case.
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I'll add...
The real issue here is that a discount for paying in full is likely like getting interest on a loan, which suggests you are like a lender which translates into being a potential creditor. That's my ultimate concern, especially after reading this today...
Then again, one way to raise cash it sell assets.
Morgan Stanley analyst Jamie Rollo has remained cautious on the Underweight-rated Carnival Corp (NYSE: CCL) shares after another “chunky forecast cut.”
The analyst slashed the price target to a new Street-low of $7.00 per share from $13.00 to reflect the lowered FY22e EBITDA guidance and mirroring “weaker than expected occupancies, weakening pricing, elevated unit costs and higher fuel costs.”
The analyst also slashed the 2H22 forecast for revenue by 15% on pressures led by a later-than-expected return to a 100% resumption.
Rollo also introduced a new bear case of $0 in case a new major demand shock is to materialize.
“If the high yield market closes, and/or if there is a demand shock that causes trip cancellations or weak bookings (and hence customer deposit outflows), liquidity could quickly shrink. Even then, leverage looks unsustainably high we think, with net debt remaining >$30bn for the foreseeable future,nearly triple its pre Covid level. We think this needs to come down to under 4xFY23, to ~$20bn or so, which implies a ~$12bn equity raise. This is similar to CCL's market cap, so could require a material,and therefore likely very dilutive, discount. If its equity value drops much further, it could become very challenging to raise this much,” the analyst concluded.
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I believe our situation is somewhat different. We have entirely paid for a cruise 1+ year out. We had transferred payment forward on a cruise we had paid for and cancelled due to family circumstances. In return we were able to stick with the original price plus a discount for the use of our cash.
We used the credit card recourse to get our deposit back after Crystal ran into trouble. At the time I distinctly recall that there was a time limit after the cash had been paid for the credit card companies to act.
Regardless, we're checking with our agent on escrow. If there is no escrow, we may bag it. Very tough call.
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I don't know the answer to the question - are deposits held in escrow? We have fully paid for a trip a year out in exchange for some discounts. Pre-pandemic, that would have been a no-brainer. Now? It's something to rethink.
Obviously, if Carnival got into a tight spot it could sell assets, notably Seabourn. If it was sold, I suspect all future deposits would go along with the sale.
On the other hand, as Crystal passengers found out, nothing should be taken for granted.
So back to my original question ... does anybody here know if deposits or fully paid future cruises are held in escrow?
Thanks!
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Hi guys, once we started sailing Regent and Seabourn after quite a few Crystal cruises we realized they all have their strengths and we never felt like strangers. We've had great luck and experiences on both and have future trips planned with both lines, as well. My bigger concern, now that you guys are on Seabourn... Seabourn will never be the same.😱🤣
Herb and Mary/San Diego
PS - you might find this sneak peak of life on board the Encore (very similar to the Ovation) from Mary's blog insightful: https://www.themodernpostcard.com/crossing-the-tasman-sea-smooth-sailing-life-on-board-a-galley-tour/
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2 minutes ago, JVNYC said:
None of this sounds good. Even if they survive the product will be remarkably different. Cost cutting through the roof! Certainly not worth those prices.
That's the part that concerns me. On all of these lines. My guess is the companies themselves don't know. And we haven't even mentioned the impact of a second wave, if there is one.
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17 minutes ago, greykitty said:
I think we can agree that a going concern opinion is never issued lightly by the public accountant.
I think we agree. Importantly, this was not a going concern letter issued by the accountants; it was a risk cited by the company. W/o question the issue for all of these cruise lines is very up in the air. My biggest concern is how all of this will impact service, quality, ingredients, fares, etc etc - even on the higher-end ships. I remember sailing Regent when it was owned by private equity; that wasn't a fun time...for us. We also sailed it in recent years and it quickly became our favorite cruise line. But nobody knows how all of this will shake out.
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Here's the full disclosure from NCLH's filings:
<<As a result of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, our financial statements contain a statement regarding a substantial doubt about the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern.
Our audited financial statements as of and for the year ended December 31, 2019 were prepared on the assumption that we would continue as a going concern. As a result of the factors described above under “COVID-19 has had, and is expected to continue to have, a significant impact on our financial condition and operations, which adversely affects our ability to obtain acceptable financing to fund resulting reductions in cash from operations. The current, and uncertain future, impact of the COVID-19 outbreak, including its effect on the ability or desire of people to travel (including on cruises), is expected to continue to impact our results, operations, outlook, plans, goals, growth, reputation, cash flows, liquidity, demand for voyages and share price.” These factors have raised substantial doubt about the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern.
Our continuation as a “going concern” is dependent upon, among other things, our ability to increase our liquidity, and our conclusion regarding our ability to continue as a going concern could materially limit our ability to raise additional funds through the issuance of new debt or equity securities or otherwise. If we are successful in seeking additional equity or debt financing, as discussed below under the heading “We anticipate needing additional financing, and such financing may not be available on favorable terms, or at all, and may be dilutive to existing shareholders”, we believe the net proceeds received in such financing along with our ability to defer certain debt payments will be sufficient to provide the necessary liquidity meet our obligations during the next 12 months, including the maintenance of minimum levels of liquidity required by certain of our debt agreements. There can be no assurance, however, that we will be able to complete such financing, raise sufficient additional capital or that other factors will improve enough to offset operating losses. The substantial doubt about our ability to continue as a going concern may affect the price of our ordinary shares and the grade of our credit rating, may impact our relationship with third parties with whom we do business, including our customers, vendors, lenders and employees, may impact our ability to raise additional capital and may impact our ability to comply going forward with covenants in our debt agreements. In the event we are unable to secure additional financing, our ability to continue as a going concern over the next twelve months will depend upon a series of factors, including the duration of the layup of our ships, the speed with which, and the extent to which, bookings resume once ships are sailing again, the ability of travel agencies, suppliers and other vendors to resume operations.
The Company has identified approximately $515 million of capital expenditure reductions, comprised of approximately $345 million of reduction from planned 2020 non-newbuild capital expenditures and are in negotiations to further reduce our capital expenditures for newbuild related payments by approximately $170 million (which reduction does not take into account the impact on timing of payments in connection with newbuilds as a result of the potential delays in ship deliveries discussed above). If successful, the Company’s next newbuild-related payments would not be until April 2021. We have also identified various projects and initiatives to reduce our ship operating costs and selling, general and administrative expenses, which we expect will result in reduced cash outflows and cost savings. We are undertaking meaningful reductions in ship operating expense including food, fuel, insurance, port charges and reduced crew manning of vessels during the suspension, resulting in lower crew payroll expense. Some other initiatives already implemented include the significant reduction or deferral of marketing expenditures in the first half of 2020, the implementation of a company-wide hiring freeze, the introduction of a temporary shortened work week and reduced work hours with commensurate 20% salary reduction for shoreside team members, a pause in our 401(k) matching contributions, corporate travel freezes for shoreside employees and a temporary furlough of approximately 20% of our shoreside employees through July 31, 2020. In addition, the majority of the vessels in the Company’s fleet are currently transitioning to cold layup,2 to further reduce operating expenses during the suspension. The steps we have taken to reduce operating costs, including furloughing a substantial number of our shoreside employees, and further steps we may take in the future to reduce costs, may negatively affect our brand reputation, guest loyalty and ability to attract and
retain employees, and our reputation and market share may suffer as a result. If our furloughed employees do not return to work with us when the COVID-19 pandemic subsides, including because they find new jobs during the furlough, we may experience operational challenges that could negatively affect results and guest experience and loyalty. Further, any reputational damage from the furlough could lead employees to depart the Company and could make it harder for us to recruit new employees in the future. Even after the COVID-19 pandemic subsides, we could still experience long-term impacts on our operating costs as a result of attempts to counteract future outbreaks of COVID-19 or other viruses, for example, the industry may be subject to enhanced health and safety requirements or other measures.>>
At the same time, the company issued a press release saying that it raised a bunch of cash:
<<On May 5, 2020, NCLH issued a press release announcing that it had commenced an underwritten public offering of $350 million of its ordinary shares, par value $0.001 per share (the “Equity Offering”). A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.3 and is incorporated by reference herein.
On May 5, 2020, NCL Corporation Ltd. (“NCLC”), a subsidiary of NCLH, also issued a press release announcing a proposed private offering (the “Exchangeable Notes Offering”) of $650 million aggregate principal amount of exchangeable senior notes due 2024 (the “Exchangeable Notes”) and a proposed private offering (the “Secured Notes Offering” and, together with the Equity Offering and the Exchangeable Notes Offering, the “Offerings”) of $600 million senior secured notes due 2024 (the “Secured Notes” and, together with the Exchangeable Notes, the “Notes”). A copy of the press release is attached hereto as Exhibit 99.4 and is incorporated by reference herein.
The Company and NCLC intend to use the net proceeds from the Offerings for general corporate purposes. None of the Offerings are conditioned upon the completion of any of the other offerings.
The Exchangeable Notes are being offered only to persons reasonably believed to be qualified institutional buyers in reliance on Rule 144A under the Securities Act. The Secured Notes are being offered only to persons reasonably believed to be qualified institutional buyers in reliance on Rule 144A under the Securities Act and, outside the United States, only to non-U.S. investors pursuant to Regulation S. The Notes will not be registered under the Securities Act or the securities laws of any other jurisdiction and may not be offered or sold in the United States absent registration or an applicable exemption from the registration requirements of the Securities Act and applicable state laws.
This report does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security and shall not constitute an offer, solicitation or sale of any security in any jurisdiction in which such offering, solicitation or sale would be unlawful.>
For what it's worth: Going concern letters/comments don't mean they'll go kaput; companies are required to bend over backwards to show the worst case scenario based on what they know when they issue the comments. That said, the bigger question: How safe are those deposits on future cruises, like the one we're booked on for late 2021? 🙅🏽♀️🤷🏼♂️😱
Best,
Herb
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13 minutes ago, UUNetBill said:
Bizinsider - can I assume the Bird Rock Coffee in question is the one on Kettner Blvd? We live in SC but our daughter lives in Sandy Eggo and she loves coffee.
Hi Bill --
That's the one. But they have four and I go to all of them, depending on where I am. We live in North County, so I frequent the one in Del Mar. The actual roasting is done at Morena Blvd. But that one on Kettner is SO great for plane watching. Let me know if you're ever out here. We'll grab a coffee, watch planes and talk ships!
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I wanted to add to Mary's thoughts about the trip. (I'm her traveling companion AKA husband.)
Before we did this trip, two topics of discussion had me bracing for the worst: The coffee and the bread.
My take: The coffee was better-than-expected. As with any coffee shop, the quality of what you taste depended on the barista. I drink Americanos; Mary, cappuccinos. In general, they were good and better than the automatic machines. But the automatic machines worked great when in a rush. The LavAzza was fine. (Disclosure: At home, here in San Diego, I buy beans at Bird Rock Coffee. For those of you here on a cruise, who don't mind a bit of a walk, treat yourself by trekking up from the ship to their shop on the outskirts of Little Italy...and enjoy watching the planes almost touch down on the roof next door while waiting in line! That's almost better than the coffee! Closer in, Lofty Coffee in Little Italy is a good alternative. There are plenty of others, as well. San Diego has quite a few really good locally owned bespoke roasters.)
There was also a thread on the bread. Based on comments I read there, before we boarded I told Mary, "Well, no bread for me this trip." Wrong. The bread was fantastic; I tended to gravitate to the multi-grain rolls and heavily seeded sliced bread. As good as any ship or even on land. Always very fresh.
As I posted on the live blog's thread: Our cabin, while midship, was noisier-than-expected from creaks and bangs - mostly vibration related. I figured that maybe nobody ever complained, so I let housekeeping know, and by the end of the cruise most of it was fixed, including a pretty loud nightly rumble from the vicinity of the veranda door. My guess is that there is little the ship's carpenters haven't seen...or fixed. (In other words, if the cabin is noisy, don't assume that the noise can't be minimized - at least midship.)
Beyond that, Mary summed it up better than I ever could.
Herb
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5 minutes ago, stines said:
I spoke with the GM on Voyager two weeks ago. He was sitting behind his desk in the office and I walked in and asked him what was going on with the HORRENDOUS internet speeds (so many passengers were openly complaining about it around the ship). He looked at me with a straight face and said: “What issue, is there an issue?”
Ha - he is not one to give up the ghost on anything, so that is no surprise. Very nice guy, but also little outward empathy. Glad to see there is so much chatter on this. I can't believe Regent doesn't monitor these pages and would hope that there is some official response - because they do so much well and responding would be the RIGHT thing to do.
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4 minutes ago, FlyerTalker said:
Always remember....connectivity off the ship has two main components. First the wifi connection to the ship's servers and secondly, the satellite connection from the ship's server to the land based server.
Most of these "location" and "open door" issues fall into the first category. Unless and until a wifi access point is put into every cabin and throughout every public space, signal attenuation due to metallic interference will continue to occur. Unfortunately Regent (and other cruiselines) can't repeal the laws of physics.
Which must be why that one passenger on our cruise who had been on RCL's newest ship a few months earlier - on the same route - said his Internet was so speedy...and good! Maybe they have every cabin wired?
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Connections in the suites is always a push - even if the router/repeater is right outside your door. The metal tends to cut the signal - or at least that's what the guy in the computer room said. Sometimes I found opening the door was the difference between mail sending and not sending. (And for those on Macs who use Gmail, I found that the actual Gmail app/site worked better than Gmail via Apple Mail. I have no idea why, and my Macbook is very new, as is my iPhone. At times, the phone worked best for dealing with mail; other times, worse. No rhyme/reason. And for what it's worth: Wifi calls, at times, were surprisingly good!)
To be fair, we have struggled with these issues on Crystal and Seabourn, as well. On the Seabourn Encore a year ago we found the observation lounge worked best; on the Quest, in Antarctica, a stairwell was sometimes best on the worst days. On the Voyager earlier this month, we found the couches on Deck 6 to be the best, but only when the Internet was working. Once the problems began, it was roulette. We thoroughly enjoyed our last cruise but the Internet really would be a deal breaker - the longer the cruise, and the more the sea days, the more so.
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In our onboard survey at our Suez cruise's completion, I specifically said that this poor Internet could be a deal-breaker for future Regent cruises. I ran into somebody on this cruise who had been on a similar itinerary a few months earlier on a new RCC ship. He said the Internet on that ship was almost better than on land...for what it's worth.
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Just to add to what others have said: This was a fantastic trip. We flew home via Cairo for a few spectacular days there with a wonderful guide. My wife, @maryogreen here, will have a more detailed review of the ship and the entire trip on CC and in her blog, The Modern Postcard, once she comes up for air and gathers her thoughts. As usual, she will go through each destination. Her intention is also to post a more formal review of the ship on CC.
Briefly: The ship, despite its age, was in immaculate condition, our cabin was great and the crew was beyond great - couldn't have been friendlier and generally on task. Officers were everywhere, including captain Felice, who was always visible and accessible. Restaurant management was always paying attention to detail, notably in La Veranda, where Simone, Dominic and everybody, Jerome and Stephane. We made great connections with Dar Le and John among the wait staff.
We also found this to be a very social cruise - met more people than we do on most cruises. Some of the closest now friends were met by sharing tables in the main dining room. (Kindred spirits on a few sensitive issues. 😉) In each case it was an extreme stroke of luck.
Beyond the Internet, which devolved from passable to abysmal (discussed in another post started by @flossie009) our only complaint (with an asterisk) was the amount of creakiness in our cabin, 938. We thought we would avoid that because of its mid-ship location. I detailed that on the cabin reviews in the stickies to this board created and maintained by
The asterisk, as I mention in my review for Bill: If you have rattles and creaks let your stewardess know. We did multiple times, starting with the early-in-the cruise vibration during the night in the area where the ceiling tiles meet the moulding. I'm a light sleeper and the ship was going full speed and there was no avoiding it. I put some towels where the vibration was worse and that helped. The carpenters then added some wood shims that helped resolve the situation. But this was like trying to put your finger in a dike to stop the water. Once one vibration was fixed, another started (this time over the makeup mirror.) That, too, was fixed. Then the veranda door started really rattling. And that was a pounding, that even was happening at low speeds. I checked with our neighbors and they had the same problem. In each case, we tried to fix it by squeezing a towel into the door opening - assuming the problem was a worn door seal. But after mentioning it to our stewardess, the carpenter arrived. After hearing the noise and then giving it some thought – and probably after having dealt with this in the past – he put a wood shim in the upper right area of framing for the door. It wasn't the seal, after all; instead, it appeared to be entire door assembly/frame.
And by the way, our Stewardess Elvy and her assistant, Giovanni, couldn't have been better.
Having sailed on Crystal a bunch, Seabourn (two cruises) and Regent (this was our second cruise - the prior was seven years earlier) I think it's fair to say that there are tradeoffs on all of these lines/ships. But in general, it comes down to the crew and if they are engaged everything else sort of takes care of itself.
Best,
Herb
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Hi there, currently onboard this cruise and it will be fun to see how long this takes to post. Flossie is right - this is worse than dial up. I need the Internet during the cruise for work-related things. (Yes, I'm one of those with a small business who needs to remain connected. I realize the risks!) Luckily, I've stumbled on windows of opportunity and have used them. My wife (Maryogreen on CC) and I have found that camping out in the chairs on Deck 6 near the card tables has been the best place possible. (Yes, if you have seen us, we are those people with the laptops.) We have heard all sorts of explanations about why it's so bad. Without question cabin access is the worst but the guy in the computer room explained that's because of the heavy doors. If I need to send an email I always make sure I stand at the open door. That often does the trick.
Herb
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Yikes, we are going to be joining the ship in Barcelona in a little over a week. I hate reading about the cruise director. We agree - on most of our cruises they set the tone.
Herb
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Exactly what I was looking for. Thanks, all!
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A Seabourn newbie sails Ovation, Norway and the North Cape, June 11 2023
in Seabourn Cruise Line
Posted
Hi there, former Bay Area person here. We'll be on the same cruise. We've done a few Seabourn, Regent and Crystal cruises, and we're really looking forward to this one after having had to cancel Norway twice because of the combo pandemic and the birth of grandkids.
We're flying out tomorrow for a week in Germany (through LHR) before driving to Copenhagen and boarding.
My wife has a travel blog (themodernpostcard.com) and will be writing post cruise.
We look forward to reading yours and @SLSD posts and may chime in if we have anything to add.
See you in Seabourn Square.
Cheers,
Herb