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About markeb

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    Cool Cruiser

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    Northern Virginia
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    Watches, Pens, Travel
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  1. Probably, but that doesn't necessarily impact vaccine response. Even though SARS-CoV-2 is prone to mutation, like pretty much all RNA viruses (including measles and polio), not all mutations impact immune response. It appears the protective antigen is pretty stable. Some earlier concerns that I'm not sure have been resolved, but the spike protein is key to entering the human cell, and if it changes too much from mutation, it can't do that anymore. So you can have a fair amount of mutation, and still have a good vaccine target.
  2. And neither do continually making statements unsupported by facts. Constantly repeating the same thing without supporting your statements only works in politics. The thing with taking preventive action is you never know how bad it would have been without it. And my wife also lost her mother to this. So my tolerance is about where yorky's is. Wrong thread.
  3. I guess I have two thoughts, one that I'll put into the "realist" category. If the cruise line can't provide the "luxury" (let's not have that argument, please) experience for the luxury price, given that there is no other reason to take a cruise (it's not transportation, like an airplane in this day and age), then there's no reason to get on the ship. So if the necessary controls take you out of the experience for your own and your fellow guests safety, I don't see how they operate. Maybe the early runs at diminished capacity that have been proposed, but not for long after that. Business travelers will tolerate a lot at a hotel, up to a point. Been there, done that. This isn't business travel. And the somewhat sarcastic thought is I hope we're not handing out Darwin awards to the optimists and near deniers since the lines are probably going to push forward regardless...
  4. And yet, United (and probably others) are instructing flight attendants to not enforce mask requirements once onboard. It's basically a boarding requirement at this point. Admittedly, with airflow on the plane, you've only got a few people around you that really create a significant risk, but one of NBC's infectious disease docs, a bonafide virus hunter, is pretty sure his only potential exposure was on a flight.
  5. That's science. You start with a hypothesis, and as you refine it, you update the guidance. They found the virus on all kinds of surfaces early on. Now they pretty much know it becomes non-viable on dry surfaces pretty quickly, but you can still recover the viral RNA. You'd prefer they continue to provide advice they know is no longer supported by evidence? That would be "punk'd".
  6. About 53%. If R is 2. 1-1/R/Efficacy. Simplified.
  7. Preliminary data. Give it time to see if it pans out. I have some confidence, but it’s early studies.
  8. Can't really top that, but have binged watched all these crazy food and chef shows on Netflix. Binged watched Chef's Table. I'd probably heard of Christina Tosi and Milk Bar (there's a location in DC, currently closed), but had never paid attention. Nothing compared to a trip to Australia (which I totally get, BTW), but $100 or so for a Milk Bar pie (formerly known as Crack Pie), a dozen Birthday Truffles, and 6 cookies. I think the only location on the show you could order from... I could actually plan a trip just to eat at the restaurants featured in the show. Modena, Italy for Osteria Francescana; London for Darjeeling Express, San Francisco for Atelier Crenn, Melbourne for Attica (although I really wouldn't fly to Australia just for one restaurant...). And others!
  9. I can for Australia and New Zealand. I suspect they'd figure out how to manage international commerce, which would probably be straight from the airport to a hotel for 14 days. Both countries have worked hard to keep out disease from their human and animal populations. They're not going to stop that. Europe probably loosens up first. Then all bets are off.
  10. We don't cruise as often as many on this board, but we do normally travel a lot. We'd pushed our Spring Break 2020 cruise (DW teaches, at least for a couple more years...) out to 2022 for other reasons, and oddly enough most of my posting for the last 6 months plus had been on the UK Departure and East Coast Departure boards, for non-cruise trips to London and Amsterdam, and answering questions mostly about Manhattan, where we normally travel multiple times a year from the DC Metro area. So I've been binge watching things like Chef's Table, Somebody Feed Phil, etc., on Netflix, and looking at the Manhattan skyline and restaurants, and London sights and restaurants. Even Nathan's looked good, and I'm not really a hot dog person anymore! Bonkers has become artisanal Dutch Oven bread recipes...
  11. That would be 1% prevalence of active SARS-CoV-2 on PCR? That makes sense. If it were crazy high, you’d never flatten the curve. I think I’m most curious of a “real” serosurvey with a good, quantitative test. That would give a lot of insight to what’s actually happened. And if we can ultimately correlate that to protection...
  12. I’m young enough to only vaguely remember 1968, but it was one of the most divisive years in US history. War in Vietnam, MLK, RFK, but capped somehow by the miracle of Apollo 8. And three networks... We’re in a social media pandemic. Hard to compare the times. The 1968 flu was definitely bad.
  13. Bo, I really think this is the logical answer to much of this. It's not one many here want to do, but a vacation is supposed to be enjoyable. If you're stressing about it way before you even begin travel, something just isn't right. If the various cruise lines decide to go back "too early", and no, I don't know when or what that is, with significant changes in the experience, and something goes wrong anyway, they are at least as bad off, if not worse, financially as if they wait to get it as right as they can. I really think they've got one chance to do this "right" and survive as an industry. Cheers.
  14. Honestly, for deal breakers, generically things that radically change the experience and leave you wondering why you're paying for this, and why you're getting on a cruise ship if there's still enough risk to make that measure necessary. And I'm skewed as I'm in a higher risk category right now, and I'd never be cleared by my physician to get on a cruise ship until there's better control of my own risk. That probably means that if a mask is even a consideration, on a cruise ship, I'm out. And I'm double out because I'd be depending on others to wear their mask to help reduce my risk, and I can see already how well that's working with land-based businesses. Live music, sing-alongs, etc., all part of the enjoyment of a cruise, will almost certainly have to be curtailed (some really scary epi studies out there of choirs spreading the virus from an asymptomatic carrier; air travels further when you sing...). There was a similar thread to this once upon a time, and I think my answer in that was that any of measures people were throwing out as necessary to enable cruising would so change the experience that I couldn't see a reason to get on that ship. Same now.
  15. Meaningless. Out of how many tests? The entire population hasn’t been tested.
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