Fare-Watchers/Pricing Pros

[VeggieCruzer]

I need some advice from anyone and everyone who has a good eye and notion for how the pricings of cruises rise and fall. Here's my situation:

 

We are booked on the Splendor in July and we paid 850pp for a balcony and 520pp for an inside (both ES) and our friends didn't book at that time. They have decided to go now but the prices are now $1054pp and $759pp respectively. OUCH! BIG, BIG difference.

 

So my question is - should they just wait and see and maybe get a Pack and Go rate (is that always offered?) or just suck it up and pay now so they are guaranteed to go??? Will the price drop again?

 

Two other points that might factor in on an opinion: 1. they are a family of five 2. they don't care about the cabin type or location.

 

Any advice is greatly appreciated. Have a great day! :)

[firefly333]

You can go look yourself at the pack n go rates, since they are offered wednesday thru friday, they are still up today. Typically half a dozen dates are offered. The chances that they will be on your ship, let alone your date, Id say are very slim.

 

Did you see the article by Laura yesterday about the recent price increases on Carnival for the summer that took effect march 22nd?

 

http://www.cruisecritic.com/articles.cfm?ID=1103

 

I myself dont see any sign that prices will be decreasing either ... they say prices will go back to "normal" (Im already paying record prices out of Galveston on Ecstasy, so Im not sure what that means).

 

Now, the bad news: Industry insiders believe that Carnival and NCL are trying to send a message that not only is the industry rebounding from the recession, but also that the booking window (the time between booking a cruise and sailing) for cruises is expanding back to normal. "Over the last 18 months, the booking curve has contracted so much, and no one likes that -- not the cruise lines, not travel agents," explains Johanna Jainchill, Cruise Editor at Travel Weekly, an industry publication. "Now they're saying that the price game is coming to an end, and that they will be rewarding people who book early, not late." By telling consumers that pricing is going up, the cruise lines are creating a sense of urgency and encouraging people to book earlier than they might otherwise. The intended end result? Fewer last-minute bargains will be available in 2010.

 

And the worse news: Fares have already started going up. Jainchill tells us that cruise line revenues are already way up this year, which means that prices have been climbing.

[firefly333]

Two other points that might factor in on an opinion: 1. they are a family of five 2. they don't care about the cabin type or location.! :)

 

One more point, there are only a few cabins on Dream that hold 5 plus the older ships ... so Im assuming what you are saying is they dont care where the TWO cabins are, since if one doesnt book in your cabin with you, they will have to book two cabins.

 

They can wing it if they dont really care if they can go, since once they book they cant get any price reductions since ES rates are gone, or they can book now if they really want to make sure they can book. Rates on Carnival are twice as high as on other cruiselines like HAL. Are they willing to pay that much more to cruise with you over HAL or a cruiseline that has more availability .. or not. Without knowing their degree of wanting to book at any rates with you, hard to say what they should do. Sounds like it will cost them a arm and a leg to go on Carnival this summer.

[VeggieCruzer]

thanks for that info. i was concerned about that price increase and it not getting cheaper. however, they only want to go if they go with us so i'll let her know and maybe i can book one of her kids in my room and still get my price (if that's possible)

[um5xno1]

You can go look yourself at the pack n go rates, since they are offered wednesday thru friday, they are still up today. Typically half a dozen dates are offered. The chances that they will be on your ship, let alone your date, Id say are very slim.

 

Did you see the article by Laura yesterday about the recent price increases on Carnival for the summer that took effect march 22nd?

 

http://www.cruisecritic.com/articles.cfm?ID=1103

 

I myself dont see any sign that prices will be decreasing either ... they say prices will go back to "normal" (Im already paying record prices out of Galveston on Ecstasy, so Im not sure what that means).

 

 

For the pricing model and purchase patterns to change, the cruise brass must put up with a period of time that ships are not sailing at capasity. Once that bubble clears, and people start booking long range, then the model will hold true. The problem lies in that the brass must stick to their guns, and not try to liquidate inventory for quick cash. Many are commited in the beginning, but thier comitment ends when they near the end with the extra quick cash an enticing incentive to stray from the goal of early booking.

[firefly333]

For the pricing model and purchase patterns to change, the cruise brass must put up with a period of time that ships are not sailing at capasity. Once that bubble clears, and people start booking long range, then the model will hold true. The problem lies in that the brass must stick to their guns, and not try to liquidate inventory for quick cash. Many are commited in the beginning, but thier comitment ends when they near the end with the extra quick cash an enticing incentive to stray from the goal of early booking.

 

I saw some last minute bargains last year, but not seeing them like last year, they dont exist right now out of Galveston or gulf ports that Im seeing.

 

Someone said they got a great deal out of San Juan, great, the deals out of that port are good because its a expensive flight, cant drive.

 

I dont see the liquidations to fill ships needed last year. Just my opinion which admittedly is only really looking at a few gulf ports. Im not even seeing the bargains Im used to seeing out of Mobile and New Orleans.

[lollylew]

thanks for that info. i was concerned about that price increase and it not getting cheaper. however, they only want to go if they go with us so i'll let her know and maybe i can book one of her kids in my room and still get my price (if that's possible)

 

Yeah they may just end up having to pay those higher prices especially during July which can be prime cruising season (at least it is to me :p)

 

Also, once you have booked your cabin, from my understanding, you can't add or subtract people. I could be wrong but this is what I have always believed (taking that chance with my Carnival Splendor cruise I already have booked for Jan 2012 - that no one else will need to go :eek:)

[um5xno1]

I saw some last minute bargains last year, but not seeing them like last year, they dont exist right now out of Galveston or gulf ports that Im seeing.

 

Someone said they got a great deal out of San Juan, great, the deals out of that port are good because its a expensive flight, cant drive.

 

I dont see the liquidations to fill ships needed last year. Just my opinion which admittedly is only really looking at a few gulf ports. Im not even seeing the bargains Im used to seeing out of Mobile and New Orleans.

 

I can agree there, but I am also not seeing the savings for the far out booking. Balconies for Florida 7 day cruises are all in the $1,200 range for Summer 2011. I actually think there are less summer berths with the introduction of the large ships to South Florida. It seems as if everytime a new big ships comes in, 2-3 smaller ones get moved.

[um5xno1]

We may also see that the CC group cruises are a good way for us to get some savings, and for the cruise line to book heavily early!

[jacquedee]

Yeah they may just end up having to pay those higher prices especially during July which can be prime cruising season (at least it is to me :p)

 

Also, once you have booked your cabin, from my understanding, you can't add or subtract people. I could be wrong but this is what I have always believed (taking that chance with my Carnival Splendor cruise I already have booked for Jan 2012 - that no one else will need to go :eek:)

 

The PVP we booked with said people can be added to a room at any time as long as there is room left in the cabin. However, people added later will pay the rate listed on the day they are added.

[firefly333]

We may also see that the CC group cruises are a good way for us to get some savings, and for the cruise line to book heavily early!

 

The CC group cruise prices that I used to see were the lowest prices, and great deals ... now they are more $$$ than booking on your own with ES rates (and Im subtracting out the OBC to figure it that you get with a CC group booking). Its about $40 more in both cases I looked at to book with CC groups.

 

Im dissapointed. I think this has to be hurting revenue CC gets from group cruises, as people book on their own and wouldnt pay extra just to say they booked with the group, just to eat with the group.

[lilswimmer]

So how exactly do you get the OBC? I noticed a price drop and we also booked as Early Savers. Do I just call carnival and tell them we booked at a higher price with them a few weeks ago? Sorry for such a silly question, I just dont want to miss out on any OBC if I do qualify for it! TIA! :)

[DiamondBill102]

You can go look yourself at the pack n go rates, since they are offered wednesday thru friday, they are still up today. Typically half a dozen dates are offered. The chances that they will be on your ship, let alone your date, Id say are very slim.

 

Did you see the article by Laura yesterday about the recent price increases on Carnival for the summer that took effect march 22nd?

 

http://www.cruisecritic.com/articles.cfm?ID=1103

 

I myself dont see any sign that prices will be decreasing either ... they say prices will go back to "normal" (Im already paying record prices out of Galveston on Ecstasy, so Im not sure what that means).

 

How do you look up the pack n go rates?

[scchasgal]

How do you look up the pack n go rates?

http://www.carnival.com/cms/fun/specials/packandgo.aspx

[firefly333]

How do you look up the pack n go rates?

 

I see someone kindly posted a link ... but if you wanted to find them yourself, on the carnival site, click on specials, see all, and over on the lower right, you will see pack n go, click on that and whats left of them will come up. All show on Wednesday, but by Friday, only ones left are the ones that didnt sell out. by tomorrow they are pulled.

[lovepea]

If your friends are residents of California, keep checking for resident rates. They have been showing some good rates periodically for CA residents, although they are available for short times.