TD #18 (Rita)

[vicocala]

Bulletin
Hurricane Rita Intermediate Advisory Number 18a
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1 Am Cdt Thu Sep 22 2005

...category Five Rita Maintaining Strength Over The Central Gulf Of
Mexico...

A Hurricane Watch Remains In Effect For The Gulf Of Mexico Coast
From Port Mansfield Texas To Cameron Louisiana. A Hurricane Warning
May Be Required For Portions Of The Hurricane Watch Area Thursday
Morning.

A Tropical Storm Watch Remains In Effect On Either Side Of The
Hurricane Watch Area... From East Of Cameron To Grand Isle
Louisiana... And From South Of Port Mansfield To Brownsville Texas.

A Tropical Storm Watch Remains In Effect For The Northeastern Coast
Of Mexico From Rio San Fernando Northward To The Rio Grande.

A Hurricane Watch Means That Hurricane Conditions Are Possible
Within The Watch Area...generally Within 36 Hours. A Tropical Storm
Watch Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are Possible Within The
Watch Area...generally Within 36 Hours.

Interests In The Northwestern Gulf Of Mexico Should Monitor The
Progress Of Potentially Catastrophic Hurricane Rita.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued
By Your Local Weather Office.

At 1 Am Cdt...0600z...the Center Of Hurricane Rita Was Located Near
Latitude 24.8 North... Longitude 87.6 West Or About 540 Miles...
870 Km... East-southeast Of Galveston Texas And About 645 Miles...
1040 Km...east-southeast Of Corpus Christi Texas.

Rita Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Near 9 Mph ...15 Km/hr. A
General Westward To West-northwestward Motion At A Slight Faster
Forward Speed Is Expected During The Next 24 Hours.

Reports From An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Indicate That
Maximum Sustained Winds Remain Near 175 Mph...280 Km/hr...with
Higher Gusts. Rita Is A Potentially Catastrophic Category Five
Hurricane On The Saffir-simpson Scale. Some Fluctuations In
Intensity Are Likely During The Next 24 Hours.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 70 Miles...110 Km...
From The Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up
To 185 Miles...295 Km.

The Minimum Central Pressure Just Reported By The Hurricane Hunter
Is 898 Mb...26.52 Inches. This Means Rita Is The Third Most
Intense Hurricane In Terms Of Pressure In The Atlantic Basin.

Tides Are Currently Running Near Normal Along The Mississippi And
Louisiana Coasts In The Areas Affected By Katrina. Tides In Those
Areas Will Increase Up To 3 To 4 Feet And Be Accompanied By Large
Waves Over The Next 24 Hours... And Residents There Could
Experience Some Coastal Flooding.

Heavy Rains Associated With Rita Are Forecast To Begin To Affect The
Western And Central Gulf Of Mexico Coastal Areas Thursday Night
Into Friday. Rita Is Expected To Produce Total Rainfall
Accumulations Of 8 To 12 Inches With Isolated Maximum Amounts Of
15 Inches Over The Central To Upper Texas Coast. Rainfall Amounts
Of 2 To 4 Inches Will Be Possible Across Southern Louisiana...
Including The New Orleans Metropolitan Area. After Rita Moves
Inland...total Rain Accumulations Of 5 To 10 Inches Will Be
Possible Over Eastern Texas... And Central And Eastern Oklahoma
During Saturday And Sunday.

Repeating The 1 Am Cdt Position...24.8 N... 87.6 W. Movement
Toward...west-northwest Near 9 Mph. Maximum Sustained
Winds...175 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure... 898 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National
Hurricane Center At 4 Am Cdt.

Forecaster Beven

[vicocala]

Hurricane Rita Discussion Number 20
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
11 Am Edt Thu Sep 22 2005

Rita Appears To Have Reached Its Peak Intensity During The Past
12 Hours. Hurricanes Typically Do Not Maintain Such High Intensity
For A Long Time. Initial Intensity Estimate Is 145 Knots. Although
Some Fluctuations In Intensity Are Likely During The Next Day Or
Two...due To Eyewall Replacement Cycles...an Overall Gradual
Weakening Trend Should Take Place. This Weakening Trend Is Based On
Lower Oceanic Heat Content Along The Forecast Track And Increasing
Shear. Neverthereless...rita Is Expected To Make Landfall As A
Dangerous Hurricane Of At Least A Category Three Intensity.

Rita Has Been Moving Toward The West-northwest Or 295 Degrees At 8
Knots. A Strong High Pressure System Currently Centered Over
Northern Texas/oklahoma Is Expected To Shift Eastward Allowing Rita
To Take A More Northwesterly And Northerly Track. The Eastward
Shift Of The High Is Forecast By All Global Models...resulting In
Track Guidance Consistently Turning The Hurricane Toward The
Northwest And North Toward The Upper-texas Or The Western Louisiana
Coasts. After Landfall...steering Currents Are Expected To Weaken
And The Cyclone Could Meander For A Couple Of Days In The Vicinity
Of Northeastern Texas...producing Heavy Rains.

Based On The Forecast Track And Wind Radii...hurricane Warnings Have
Been Issued At This Time From Port O'connor Texas To Morgan City
Louisiana. Tropical Storm Warnings Are In Effect On Either Side Of
The Hurricane Warning.

Forecaster Avila

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 22/1500z 25.4n 88.7w 145 Kt
12hr Vt 23/0000z 25.8n 89.9w 140 Kt
24hr Vt 23/1200z 26.9n 91.6w 130 Kt
36hr Vt 24/0000z 28.2n 93.0w 125 Kt
48hr Vt 24/1200z 30.0n 94.5w 100 Kt...inland
72hr Vt 25/1200z 33.0n 95.0w 45 Kt...inland
96hr Vt 26/1200z 34.0n 95.0w 30 Kt...inland
120hr Vt 27/1200z 34.5n 94.5w 25 Kt...inland


$$

[elmorejj]

Thankfully I was able to change my Tuesday flights today instead of Houston now to Atlanta. Now I can breathe a little easier. Stay safe everyone who is in Ritas path.......jean :cool:

[vicocala]

Jean,

Probably a very good idea, no telling what damage may come to Houston. I hope you have a wonderful trip. I will be going to Chichen Itza, Tulum, Xel-ha, Xcaret thru gray line as well as Tres Rios Eco Park and a snorkeling tour provided by the resort.

It won't be restful, but should be entertaining and fun!

[Sage]

Vic,

Thanks for the great updates. It looks as though it has begun to weaken some; I sure hope the trend continues.

Jean,

Have a great time on your trip. I'm glad you could change your plane reservations.

[elmorejj]

Vic, when are you going and where are you staying? have done several of the tours you will be on, great! enjoy yourself........jean :cool:

[vicocala]

Jean,

I will be staying at an AI, the Royal Sunset on the hotel strip around the 10 KM area. Ever been there or heard anything good or bad? I got it thru an RCI exchange certificate.

I hate to be paying so much for an AI when I will be gone so much, but I would get bored just sitting by a pool or on the beach everyday. That is to much like being in Florida. :)

The resort itself is only costing 249 for the week but the 73.00 each for the AI part is where the money is going.

[vicocala]

Oh yeah, we will be flying down with American Airlines. The trip is May 27th thru June 3d. I believe in planning early. :rolleyes:

[elmorejj]

Vic we always plan months ahead too! Go to trip advisor dot com and there will be many reviews of the Royal Sunset. jean :cool:

[vicocala]

Jean,

I did that. Seems to get good reviews if you are vacationing and horrible ones if you do a time share tour. Par for the course with most resorts. I wouldn't personally sign any contract in a foriegn country. Our laws are screwy enough. :)

[vicocala]

Bulletin
Hurricane Rita Intermediate Advisory Number 21a
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
7 Pm Cdt Thu Sep 22 2005

...rita Continues West-northwestward...
...outer Rainbands Spreading Over Southern Louisiana...

A Hurricane Warning Is In Effect From Port O'connor Texas To Morgan
City Louisiana. A Hurricane Warning Means That Hurricane Conditions
Are Expected Within The Warning Area Within The Next 24 Hours.
Preparations To Protect Life And Property Should Be Rushed To
Completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For The Southeastern Coast Of
Louisiana East Of Morgan City To The Mouth Of The Mouth Of The
Pearl River Including Metropolitan New Orleans And Lake
Pontchartrain....and From South Of Port O'connor To Port Mansfield
Texas. A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm
Conditions Are Expected Within The Warning Area Within The Next 24
Hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch Is In Effect From South Of Port Mansfield To
Brownsville Texas...and For The Northeastern Coast Of Mexico From
Rio San Fernando Northward To The Rio Grande. A Tropical Storm
Watch Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are Possible Within The
Watch Area...generally Within 36 Hours.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued
By Your Local Weather Office.

At 7 Pm Cdt...0000z...the Center Of Hurricane Rita Was Located Near
Latitude 26.0 North...longitude 89.9 West Or About 350 Miles...
565 Km...east-southeast Of Galveston Texas And About 290 Miles...
465 Km...southeast Of Cameron Louisiana.

Rita Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Near 10 Mph...17 Km/hr. A
Gradual Turn Toward The Northwest Is Expected During The Next 24
Hours. On This Track...the Core Of Rita Will Be Approaching The
Southwest Louisiana And The Upper Texas Coast Late Friday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 145 Mph...230 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. Rita Is A Extremely Dangerous Category Four Hurricane On The
Saffir-simpson Scale. Some Fluctuations In Intensity Are Likely
During The Next 24 Hours.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 60 Miles... 95 Km...
From The Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up
To 205 Miles...335 Km. Any Tropical Storm Force Winds In The New
Orleans Area Are Expected To Be Confined To A Few Squalls
Associated With Quickly Moving Rainbands. Shortly Before 6 Pm
Cdt...noaa Buoy 42001 Just South Of The Center Of Rita Reported A
10-minute Average Wind Of 83 Mph...134 Km/hr With A Gust To 112
Mph...180 Km/hr.

The Latest Minimum Central Pressure Reported By An Air Force
Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Was 913 Mb...26.96 Inches.

Coastal Storm Surge Flooding Of 15 To 20 Feet Above Normal Tide
Levels...along With Large And Dangerous Battering Waves...can Be
Expected Near And To The East Of Where The Center Makes Landfall.
Tides Are Currently Running About 2 Feet Above Normal Along The
Louisiana...mississippi And Alabama Coasts In The Areas Affected By
Katrina. Tides In Those Areas Will Increase To 3 To 5 Feet And Be
Accompanied By Large Waves...and Residents There Could Experience
Coastal Flooding.

Rainfall Accumulations Of 8 To 12 Inches With Isolated Maximum 15
Inch Totals Are Possible Along The Path Of Rita Over Southeast Texas
And Southwestern Louisiana As It Moves Inland. Based On The
Forecast Track...totals Accumulations In Excess Of 25 Inches Are
Possible Over The Next Several Days As The System Slows Down. In
Addition...rainfall Amounts Of 3 To 5 Inches Are Possible Over
Southeastern Louisiana Including New Orleans.

Repeating The 7 Pm Cdt Position...26.0 N... 89.9 W. Movement
Toward...west-northwest Near 10 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...145
Mph. Minimum Central Pressure... 913 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At
10 Pm Cdt.

Forecaster Knabb

[vicocala]

Bulletin
Hurricane Rita Advisory Number 22
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
10 Pm Cdt Thu Sep 22 2005

...extremely Dangerous Category Four Hurricane Rita Continues
West-northwestward Toward The Southwestern Louisiana And Upper
Texas Coasts...

A Hurricane Warning Is In Effect From Port O'connor Texas To Morgan
City Louisiana. A Hurricane Warning Means That Hurricane Conditions
Are Expected Within The Warning Area Within The Next 24 Hours.
Preparations To Protect Life And Property Should Be Rushed To
Completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For The Southeastern Coast Of
Louisiana East Of Morgan City To The Mouth Of The Pearl River
Including Metropolitan New Orleans And Lake Pontchartrain....and
From South Of Port O'connor To Port Mansfield Texas. A Tropical
Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected
Within The Warning Area Within The Next 24 Hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch Remains In Effect From South Of Port
Mansfield To Brownsville Texas...and For The Northeastern Coast Of
Mexico From Rio San Fernando Northward To The Rio Grande.
A Tropical Storm Watch Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are
Possible Within The Watch Area...generally Within 36 Hours.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued
By Your Local Weather Office.

At 10 Pm Cdt...0300z...the Center Of Hurricane Rita Was Located Near
Latitude 26.2 North... Longitude 90.3 West Or About 350 Miles...
560 Km... Southeast Of Galveston Texas And About 310 Miles... 495
Km...southeast Of Cameron Louisiana.

Rita Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Near 10 Mph...17 Km/hr. A
Gradual Turn Toward The Northwest Is Expected During The Next 24
Hours. On This Track...the Core Of Rita Will Be Approaching The
Southwest Louisiana And Upper Texas Coasts Late Friday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 140 Mph...220 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. Rita Is An Extremely Dangerous Category Four Hurricane On
The Saffir-simpson Scale. Some Fluctuations In Strength Are
Expected During The Next 24 Hours.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 80 Miles...130 Km...
From The Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up
To 205 Miles...335 Km. Any Tropical Storm Force Winds In The New
Orleans Area Are Expected To Be Confined To A Few Squalls
Associated With Quickly Moving Rainbands.

The Latest Minimum Central Pressure Reported By An Air Force
Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Was 917 Mb...27.08 Inches.

Coastal Storm Surge Flooding Of 15 To 20 Feet Above Normal Tide
Levels...along With Large And Dangerous Battering Waves...can Be
Expected Near And To The East Of Where The Center Makes Landfall.
Tides Are Currently Running About 2 Feet Above Normal Along The
Louisiana...mississippi And Alabama Coasts In The Areas Affected By
Katrina. Tides In Those Areas Will Increase To 3 To 5 Feet And Be
Accompanied By Large Waves...and Residents There Could Experience
Coastal Flooding.

Rita Is Expected To Produce Rainfall Accumulations Of 8 To 12
Inches...with Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 15 Inches Over
Southeastern Texas And Southwestern Louisiana As It Moves Inland.
Since Rita Is Expected To Slow Down Significantly After Making
Landfall...total Accumulations In Excess Of 25 Inches Are
Possible Over The Next Several Days Over Eastern Texas And Western
Louisiana. In Addition...rainfall Amounts Of 3 To 5 Inches Are
Possible Over Southeastern Louisiana Including Metropolitan New
Orleans.

Repeating The 10 Pm Cdt Position...26.2 N... 90.3 W. Movement
Toward...west-northwest Near 10 Mph. Maximum Sustained
Winds...140 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure... 917 Mb.

An Intermediate Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane
Center At 1 Am Cdt Followed By The Next Complete Advisory At 4 Am
Cdt.

Forecaster Knabb


$$

[vicocala]

Hurricane Rita Discussion Number 23
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
5 Am Edt Fri Sep 23 2005

Rita Is Completing Its Eyewall Replacement Cycle This Morning...as
The Last Report From An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft
Showed That The Inner 15 N Mi Wide Eye Had Dissipated And A Single
33 N Mi Wide Eye Existed. Maximum Flight-level Winds At 700 Mb In
The Northeastern Quadrant Are 125-130 Kt...which Helps Support An
Initial Intensity Of 120 Kt. The Aircraft Data Showed That Another
Wind Maxima Has Formed About 60 N Mi From The Center...which Might
Be The Start Of Another Outer Eyewall. The Latest Central Pressure
Reported By The Aircraft Is 927 Mb.

Rita Is Moving Between 300-305 Degrees At 8-9 Kt. Rawinsonde Data
At 00z Indicates That The Mid-level Ridge Is Still Present Over
Texas. This Feature Should Move Eastward During The Next 24-48
Hr...allowing The Current Northwestward Motion To Become More
Northerly. Track Guidance Is Now Clustered About A Landfall On The
Upper Texas Coast In Roughly 30 Hr...with The Model Track Being
Spread Between San Luis Pass And Sabine Pass. The Forecast Track
Up To Landfall Is Essentially An Update Of The Previous Package.
After Landfall...the Guidance Become Very Divergent As High
Pressure Build To The West And Possibly North Of Rita. Given The
Spread...the Forecast Track Will Call For Little Motion After 72 Hr
Just As The Previous Forecast Did. This Stalling Will Pose A
Serious Risk Of Very Heavy Rainfall Well Inland.

The Intensity Forecast Is Still Problematic. Since Rita Has
Completed The Eyewall Replacement Cycle And Is Over The Warm Eddy
Of The Loop Current...there Is A Chance It Could Strengthen During
The Next 12 Hr. After That...it Should Moved North Of The Eddy...
Possibly Start Another Eyewall Cycle...and Possibly Experience
Increasing Southerly Shear. The Intensity Forecast Thus Calls For
A Slight Increase In Strength In 12 Hr...follwed By Slight
Weakening. An Alternative Scenario Is That Rita Does Not
Strengthen...and Gradually Weakens Due To Shear Until Landfall.
This Could Happen If The Shear Reaches The 25 Kt Values Forecast By
The Gfs And Ships Models.

Forecaster Beven


Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 23/0900z 26.8n 91.0w 120 Kt
12hr Vt 23/1800z 27.6n 92.2w 125 Kt
24hr Vt 24/0600z 28.9n 93.6w 120 Kt
36hr Vt 24/1800z 30.4n 94.6w 80 Kt...inland
48hr Vt 25/0600z 31.5n 95.0w 45 Kt...inland
72hr Vt 26/0600z 33.0n 94.5w 30 Kt...inland
96hr Vt 27/0600z 33.0n 94.5w 25 Kt...inland
120hr Vt 28/0600z 33.0n 94.5w 25 Kt...inland Dissipating


$$

[vicocala]

Bulletin
Hurricane Rita Intermediate Advisory Number 23a
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
7 Am Cdt Fri Sep 23 2005

...extremely Dangerous Category Four Hurricane Rita Continues Toward
The Southwest Louisiana And Upper Texas Coasts...

A Hurricane Warning Is In Effect From Port O'connor Texas To Morgan
City Louisiana. A Hurricane Warning Means That Hurricane Conditions
Are Expected Within The Warning Area Within The Next 24 Hours.
Preparations To Protect Life And Property Should Be Rushed To
Completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For The Southeastern Coast Of
Louisiana East Of Morgan City To The Mouth Of The Pearl River
Including Metropolitan New Orleans And Lake Pontchartrain...and
From South Of Port O'connor To Port Mansfield Texas. A Tropical
Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected
Within The Warning Area Within The Next 24 Hours. Some Portions Of
The Tropical Storm Warning In Texas Could Be Discontinued Later
Today.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued
By Your Local Weather Office.

At 7 Am Cdt...1200z...the Center Of Hurricane Rita Was Located Near
Latitude 27.1 North...longitude 91.5 West Or About 260 Miles
Southeast Of Galveston Texas And About 220 Miles South-southeast Of
Cameron Louisiana.

Rita Is Moving Toward The Northwest Near 9 Mph...and This General
Motion Is Expected To Continue For The Next 24 Hours. On This
Track...the Core Of Rita Will Be Approaching The Southwest
Louisiana And Upper Texas Coasts Late Today Or Tonight.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 140 Mph...with Higher Gusts. Rita
Is An Extremely Dangerous Category Four Hurricane On The
Saffir-simpson Scale. Some Fluctuations In Strength Are Expected
During The Next 24 Hours.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 85 Miles From The
Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 205
Miles.

The Minimum Central Pressure Just Estimated From Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Data Was 930 Mb...27.46 Inches.

Coastal Storm Surge Flooding Of 15 To 20 Feet Above Normal Tide
Levels...along With Large And Dangerous Battering Waves...can Be
Expected Near And To The East Of Where The Center Makes Landfall.
Tides Are Currently Running About 2 Feet Above Normal Along The
Louisiana...mississippi And Alabama Coasts In The Areas Affected By
Katrina. Tides In Those Areas Will Increase To 3 To 5 Feet And Be
Accompanied By Large Waves...and Residents There Could Experience
Coastal Flooding. Large Swells Generated By Rita Will Likely Affect
Most Portions Of The Gulf Coast.

Rita Is Expected To Produce Rainfall Accumulations Of 8 To 12
Inches...with Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 15 Inches Over
Southeastern Texas And Southwestern Louisiana As It Moves Inland.
Since Rita Is Forecast To Slow Down Significantly After Making
Landfall...total Accumulations In Excess Of 25 Inches Are Possible
Over The Next Several Days Across Eastern Texas And Western
Louisiana. In Addition...rainfall Amounts Of 3 To 5 Inches Are
Possible Over Southeastern Louisiana Including Metropolitan New
Orleans.

Isolated Tornadoes Are Possible Today Over Portions Of Southeastern
Texas And Southern Louisiana.

Repeating The 7 Am Cdt Position...27.1 N... 91.5 W. Movement
Toward...northwest Near 10 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...140 Mph.
Minimum Central Pressure... 930 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At
10 Am Cdt.

Forecaster Avila

[Grumpy1]

I've been following the course of Rita and plotting the points on a map. I also have some of the National Data Bouy Center data bouys plotted. I noticed that one bouy, #42001, was directly in the path and started watching the data from that bouy. About 5pm yesterday, the eye passed almost directly over the bouy. Here's a graph of the barometric pressure, steady wind and wind gusts, hour by hour, over a 5 day period.

[Grumpy1]

About 10:30EDT last night, Bouy 42001 broke loose from it's mooring and is drifting more than 50 miles south of it's anchored location. It is still transmitting data, but the hurricane is past it now.

There is another bouy, #42035, that is anchored 22 miles east of Galveston. It will be fairly close to the hurricane center, based on current projections. Info on that bouy can be found at [url="http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42035"]http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42035[/url]

[mrsred]

Thanks Grumpy!

That's great info!

I like the graph. Very cool.

~e

[vicocala]

Bulletin
Hurricane Rita Intermediate Advisory Number 24a
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1 Pm Cdt Fri Sep 23 2005

...rita On A Slow Weakening Trend...

A Hurricane Warning Is In Effect From Port O'connor Texas To Morgan
City Louisiana. A Hurricane Warning Means That Hurricane Conditions
Are Expected Within The Warning Area Within The Next 24 Hours.
Preparations To Protect Life And Property Should Be Rushed To
Completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect For The Southeastern
Coast Of Louisiana East Of Morgan City To The Mouth Of The Pearl
River Including Metropolitan New Orleans And Lake Pontchartrain
...and From South Of Port O'connor To Port Aransas. A Tropical
Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected
Within The Warning Area Within The Next 24 Hours.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued
By Your Local Weather Office.

At 1 Pm Cdt...1800z...the Center Of Hurricane Rita Was Located Near
Latitude 27.8 North...longitude 92.2 West Or About 190 Miles
Southeast Of Galveston Texas And About 175 Miles Southeast Of
Port Arthur Texas.

Rita Is Moving Toward The Northwest Near 10 Mph And This Motion Is
Expected To Continue During The Next 24 Hours. On This Track...the
Core Of Rita Will Make Landfall Near The Southwest Louisiana And
Upper Texas Coasts Early Saturday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Have Decreased To Near 125 Mph With Higher
Gusts. Rita Is Now A Category Three Hurricane On The Saffir-simpson
Scale. A Further Slow Weakening Is Possible Before Landfall...but
Rita Is Still Expected To Come Ashore As A Dangerous Hurricane.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 85 Miles From The
Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up
To 205 Miles. An Elevated Platform On Isle Denieres Near The
South-central Louisiana Coast Just Reported Sustained Winds Of 58
Mph.

Latest Minimum Central Pressure Reported By An Air Force
Reconnaissance Plane Was 931 Mb...27.49 Inches.

Coastal Storm Surge Flooding Of 15 Feet Above Normal Tide Levels...
Locally Up To 20 Feet At Head Of Bays And Nearby Rivers...with
Large And Dangerous Battering Waves...can Be Expected Near And To
The East Of Where The Center Makes Landfall. Tides Are Currently
Running About 2 Feet Above Normal Along The Louisiana...mississippi
And Alabama Coasts In The Areas Affected By Katrina. Tides In Those
Areas Will Increase To 3 To 5 Feet And Be Accompanied By Large
Waves...and Residents There Could Experience Coastal Flooding.
Large Swells Generated By Rita Will Likely Affect Most Portions Of
The Gulf Coast.

Rita Is Expected To Produce Rainfall Accumulations Of 8 To 12
Inches...with Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 20 Inches Over
Southeastern Texas And Southwestern Louisiana As It Moves Inland.
Rainfall Amounts Of 3 To 5 Inches Are Possible Over Southeastern
Louisiana Including Metropolitan New Orleans With Isolated Heavier
Amounts Possible. Since Rita Is Forecast To Slow Down Significantly
After Making Landfall...total Accumulations In Excess Of 25 Inches
Are Possible Over The Next Several Days Across Eastern Texas Into
Western Louisiana.

Isolated Tornadoes Are Possible Today Over Portions Of Southeastern
Texas...southern Louisiana Including Southern Mississippi And
Alabama

Repeating The 1 Pm Cdt Position...27.8 N... 92.2 W. Movement
Toward...northwest Near 10 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds...125 Mph.
Minimum Central Pressure... 931 Mb.

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At
4 Pm Cdt.

Forecaster Avila

[RevNeal]

As of 2 hours ago FEMA started sending people who are evacuees from Houston to our Church. We've got 190 evacuees currently saying here, with room for another 60.

These people seem to have a whole lot more, and they're hoping to go back tomorrow night or Sunday ... they just needed a place to stay and all hotel rooms are crammed.

We're feeding 'em too.

Pray HARD that this hurricane continues to weaken.

[vicocala]

Sorry this is late, internet problems:

HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005

THE WEAKENING TREND APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF. IT APPEARS THAT THE
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES HAVE BEEN THE DOMINANT FACTOR...AS
USUAL...IN CONTROLLING THE INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS OF RITA. FLIGHT
LEVEL WIND DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ABOUT 110 KNOTS. OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE
INCREASED A LITTLE SUGGESTING STRONGER WINDS BUT I RATHER WAIT FOR
THESE NUMBERS TO PERSIST. ONLY A SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST
BEFORE LANDFALL DUE TO SHEAR AND COOLER OCEAN. THIS IS NOT A VERY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE AND IN FACT...RITA IS STILL FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE.

THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT
ABOUT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
THE STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA SHOULD REACH THE UPPER TEXAS/SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA COAST SATURDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...THE STEERING
CURRENTS ARE FOREAST TO COLLAPSE AND A WEAKENED RITA COULD
MEANDER FOR A FEW DAYS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/2100Z 28.2N 92.6W 110 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 29.2N 93.7W 105 KT
24HR VT 24/1800Z 30.8N 94.5W 65 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 25/0600Z 32.5N 94.5W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 25/1800Z 33.5N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 26/1800Z 33.5N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 27/1800Z 33.5N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 28/1800Z 33.5N 94.5W 25 KT...INLAND

[vicocala]

Hurricane Rita Discussion Number 26
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
11 Pm Edt Fri Sep 23 2005

Data From A Noaa Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Through About 00z
Indicated The Central Pressure Was Hovering Near 930 Mb Throughout
The Afternoon And Evening. Maximum 700 Mb Flight Level Winds Had
Still Been 120-125 Kt. Wsr-88d Radar Imagery From Slidell
Louisiana...lake Charles Louisiana...and Houston Texas Still Depict
A Well-defined Eye That Is Just A Few Hours From Reaching The
Coastline Near The Texas/louisiana Border. The Eyewall Remains
Intact And Intense... Especially In The Northern Semicircle... With
A Radius Of Maximum Winds Of About 20 N Mi... Surrounded By Dense
And Well-developed Spiral Banding. Velocities From The Radars
Suggest That The Surface Winds Have Not Fallen Off Much And Support
The Advisory Intensity Of 105 Kt. Rita Remains A Formidable Major
Hurricane... And Little Change In Strength Is Expected During The
Last Few Hours It Has Over Water... So Rita Is Expected To Make
Landfall At Category Three Intensity. An Air Force Hurricane
Hunter Aircraft Will Be Back In The System Shortly.

Rita Is Approaching The Coast Along A Slightly Wobbly Heading Of 325
Degrees At About 10 Knots... Just Slightly To The East Of The
Previous Advisory Track. Aside From The Commonly Observed
Wobbles... This Motion Should Continue Until Landfall... Followed
By A Gradual Turn More Toward The North-northwest And Eventually
North During The Next Couple Of Days... With A Decrease In Forward
Speed. Beyond Then... There Is No Change To The Forecast Of A
Stall Over Northeastern Texas And Southwestern Arkansas... As Rita
Will Likely Become Trapped Between High Pressure Cells To Its East
And West. This Scenario Could Produce Very Heavy Rainfall Totals
Well Inland And For Several Days After Landfall.

Forecaster Knabb


Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Initial 24/0300z 29.1n 93.2w 105 Kt
12hr Vt 24/1200z 30.1n 94.0w 85 Kt...inland
24hr Vt 25/0000z 31.4n 94.5w 50 Kt...inland
36hr Vt 25/1200z 32.8n 94.5w 30 Kt...inland
48hr Vt 26/0000z 33.5n 94.5w 25 Kt...inland
72hr Vt 27/0000z 33.5n 94.5w 25 Kt...inland
96hr Vt 28/0000z 33.5n 94.5w 25 Kt...inland
120hr Vt 29/0000z 33.5n 94.5w 25 Kt...dissipating


$$

[vicocala]

This will be my last report on Rita, all my prayers and best wishes to those who are/were in her path.



HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 24 2005

RITA HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND. DOPPLER
RADAR INDICATE THAT WINDS ARE ABOUT 80 TO 90 KNOTS AT ABOUT 5000
FEET. THIS WOULD SUPPORT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE
BUT MUCH HIGHER GUSTS. NOW THAT THE CORE OF RITA IS WELL INLAND
WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE AS INDICATED BY DECAY SHIPS MODEL.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. STEERING
CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME VERY LIGHT SO ONLY A SMALL EASTWARD
DRIFT IS ANTICIPATED BEYOND 24 HOURS. RITA SHOULD PRODUCE
TORRENTIAL RAIN AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD.

FORECASTER AVILA


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/1500Z 31.0N 94.3W 65 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 32.5N 94.5W 40 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 25/1200Z 34.0N 93.5W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 26/0000Z 34.5N 92.0W 25 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 26/1200Z 34.5N 91.5W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 27/1200Z 34.5N 90.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 28/1200Z 34.5N 90.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 29/1200Z 34.5N 90.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING


$$

[LoveLifeAtSea]

[color=royalblue]vicocala ... Thank you so much for following the storms path and posting it on an ongoing basis.[/color]
[color=royalblue][/color]
[color=royalblue]It's past us now, but there's still a lot to be discovered and uncovered.[/color]
[color=royalblue][/color]

[vicocala]

Susan,

You are quite welcome, glad to be of service. I hope you fared thru the storm OK as well as Katrina. Our thoughts and prayers are with you all. But for the grace of God....

[Sage]

Vicocala,

Thank your for keeping us so well informed about all of these storms. I certainly appreciate all your time and effort to keep us informed and safe.