Tropical Storm Beta

[vicocala]

Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 2

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

5 Am Edt Thu Oct 27 2005

 

As Often Occurs As A Depression Evolves Into A Tropical Storm... The

Outer Bands From Last Night Have Dissipated While Bursts Of Deep

Convection Have Consolidated Near The Circulation Center.

Satellite Intensity Estimates Are Unanimously 35 Kt...and They Are

Only That Low Due To Dvorak Constraints. The Convective Pattern

Appears To Correspond To An Even Stronger System...but The Winds

Have Probably Not Yet Caught Up To The Cloud Signature. The

Depression Is Upgraded To A Tropical Storm With 35 Kt Winds...

Making Beta The Record-setting 23rd Tropical Storm Of The 2005

Season.

 

The Slow Northwestward Motion Of About 5 Kt Is Being Provided By

Weak Southeasterly Flow... In Between A Large And Deep Layer

Anticyclone Centered A Distant 2000 N Mi To The East-northeast Over

The Central Atlantic... And A Mid/upper Level Shortwave Trough Over

The Gulf Of Mexico. Most Of The Models Forecast Enough Ridging To

Develop In Place Of The Shortwave Trough Over The Southern Gulf To

Eventually Turn Beta Westward Into Nicaragua...but There Is

Substantial Disagreement On When That Turn Will Occur. Overall The

Models Have Slowed Down Compared To The Previous Cycle...and None

Of Them Bring The Center Onshore In Less Than 48 Hours. The

Official Forecast Is Kept Along The Same Path Of The Previous

Advisory...but Slowed Down To Nudge Toward The Guidance.

 

Oceanic And Atmospheric Conditions Appear Favorable For

Strengthening... With Sea Surface Temperatures Exceeding 29 Celsius

And Very Weak Vertical Wind Shear Expected To Persist Along The

Official Forecast Track. The Ships Guidance Suggests Beta Could Be

Near Hurricane Strength In About 48 Hours If It Has Not Yet Made

Landfall... And The Rapid Intensification Index Based On Ships

Indicates Nearly A 50/50 Shot At 25 Kt Of Strengthening During The

First 24 Hours. The Gfdl Forecasts Even More Intensification...to

Hurricane Strength Within 36 Hours. Since The New Official Track

Forecast Keeps Beta Over Water Longer Than The Previous

Advisory...and Given The Very Bullish Guidance...the New Official

Intensity Forecast Is Adjusted Upward And Anticipates A Hurricane

By The Time Of Landfall On The Nicaraguan Coast. Further... Since

The 36 Hour Forecast Is Near Hurricane Strength... It Is Certainly

Possible That Hurricane Conditions Could Occur Within 36 Hours In

The Areas Already Under A Tropical Storm Warning. However...we Have

Not Yet Been Able To Contact Nicaragua Regarding The Issuance Of A

Hurricane Watch In Addition To The Tropical Storm Warning.

 

 

Forecaster Knabb

 

 

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

 

Initial 27/0900z 11.4n 81.8w 35 Kt

12hr Vt 27/1800z 11.8n 82.2w 45 Kt

24hr Vt 28/0600z 12.5n 82.6w 55 Kt

36hr Vt 28/1800z 12.8n 83.0w 60 Kt

48hr Vt 29/0600z 13.0n 83.6w 65 Kt...inland

72hr Vt 30/0600z 13.0n 85.0w 30 Kt...inland

96hr Vt 31/0600z...dissipated

 

 

$$

[vicocala]

[rumple]

Thanks, Vicocala, for the update.

 

But I was so hoping that Alpha was the end of it all!!

 

Sigh.

 

Karen

[vicocala]

You are very welcome and I was too. Here is the outlook:

 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

530 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2005

 

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

 

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY

UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM BETA... LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN

CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 140 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BLUEFIELDS

NICARAGUA.

 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS SPREADING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER

ANTILLES... WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY NEAR THE WINDWARD

ISLANDS. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS

TIME. HOWEVER... UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING A LITTLE

MORE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD

INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.

 

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED

ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. UPPER-LEVEL

LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

 

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH

FRIDAY.

 

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM BETA ARE ISSUED UNDER

WMO HEADER WTNT31 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/

ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 AND UNDER AWIPS

HEADER MIATCMAT1.

 

FORECASTER KNABB

[Sage]

I was so hoping that I had misread the post, but no, it's correct. Thanks Vicocala. Let's hope that this is the end of the storms this season.

[vicocala]

Fortunately it shouldn't come anywhere near the U.S.. We have had a lot of talk of Wilma, Rita and Katrina but we need to remember that Mexico and Central America have been slammed too. They may even be more in a pickle than we are as so much of their meager economy is tourism. These storms have been a very big blow to them.

 

The pictures of the docks in Cozumel were devastating, let us hope that any other damage or loss of life is minimal. We still have over a month of hurricane season left.

[vicocala]

Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 3

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

11 Am Edt Thu Oct 27 2005

 

Morning Satellite Imagery Shows Beta As A Small But Well Organized

Tropical Storm. Visible Imagery Shows A Central Dense Overcast

With Some Outer Banding In Both The East And West Quadrants...with

Infrared Imagery Indicating Cloud Tops To -80c. A Recent Ssm/i

Overpass Shows An Small Eyewall Forming Under The Cdo. Satellite

Intensity Estimates Are 45 Kt From Tafb And Sab...and That Is The

Initial Intensity.

 

The Center Of Beta Is Somewhat To The East Of The Previous

Advisory...and The Initial Motion Is A Somewhat Uncertain 350/2.

Beta Is Drifting Toward A Weakness In The Subtropical Ridge Caused

By A Large Deep-layer Trough Over The Eastern United States.

Large-scale Models Suggests That After A Series Of Shortwaves Pass

Through The Southern End Of The Trough In The Next 24-36 Hr...the

Trough Should Lift A Little Northward And Allow Weak Ridging To

Build Across The Northwestern Caribbean. This Evolution Should

Cause Beta To Drift Slowly Northward Or North-northwestward For The

Next 24-36 Hr...followed By A Westward Motion. All The Dynamical

Models Except The Canadian...which Has Had A Northward Bias In

Similar Situations...follow This Scenario. The New Forecast Track

Is Shifted To The North And East Of The Previous Track Based On The

Initial Position And Motion. The Forecast Track Now Calls For

Landfall In Northeastern Nicaragua In 72 To 96 Hr.

 

With The Small Eyewall And Good Outflow In The Western Semicircle...

Beta Appears Set Up For Rapid Intensification. Indeed...the Rapid

Intensification Index Attached To The Ships Model Shows A 56

Percent Chance Of 25 Kt Or Greater Strengthening During The Next 24

Hours. The New Intensity Forecast Will Not Increase Quite That

Much...but Does Show Significant Strengthening During The Next 72

Hr Similar To That Of The Gfdl. The Intensity Forecast May Need To

Be Revised Significantly Upward In The Next Advisory If Current

Trends Continue. One Possible Restraining Factor Is That The Warm

Water Of The Southwestern Caribbean Is Relatively Shallow...and The

Slow Motion Of Beta Will Likely Result In Some Upwelling Of Cold

Water. However...the Effects Of This May Not Be Felt For 24 Hr Or

More.

 

Forecaster Beven

 

 

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

 

Initial 27/1500z 11.5n 81.3w 45 Kt

12hr Vt 28/0000z 11.9n 81.3w 55 Kt

24hr Vt 28/1200z 12.4n 81.4w 65 Kt

36hr Vt 29/0000z 12.9n 81.7w 75 Kt

48hr Vt 29/1200z 13.3n 82.1w 80 Kt

72hr Vt 30/1200z 13.5n 83.0w 85 Kt

96hr Vt 31/1200z 13.5n 84.5w 40 Kt...inland

120hr Vt 01/1200z 13.0n 86.5w 25 Kt...dissipating

 

 

$$

[elmorejj]

Thanks Vic.

Now I know why I hated Greek in school!:cool:

[vicocala]

LOL, you wouldn't if you were in a fraternity. :D

 

TROPICAL STORM BETA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

2 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2005

 

...TROPICAL STORM BETA STRENGTHENING AND RE-LOCATED EASTWARD...NEW

WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...

 

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES

AND PROVIDENCIA.

 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMIAN IN EFFECT FOR

THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE BORDER

WITH COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE

NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS.

 

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED

WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO

PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A

HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE

WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

 

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

 

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BETA WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.4 WEST OR ABOUT 70

MILES... 115 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT

160 MILES... 260 KM...EAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

 

BETA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH. A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS

EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE

CENTER OF BETA NEAR SAN ANDRES ON FRIDAY.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND

BETA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATE TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

 

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES

... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

 

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

 

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE

EXPECTED ON SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA AS THE CENTER OF BETA PASSES

NEARBY.

 

TROPICAL STORM BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO

15 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NORTHEASTERN

HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...SAN ANDRES...AND PROVIDENCIA. ISOLATED

MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

 

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...11.6 N... 81.4 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...DRIFTING NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

 

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM EDT.

 

FORECASTER BEVEN

 

 

$$

[vicocala]

Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 4

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

5 Pm Edt Thu Oct 27 2005

 

Beta Remains A Small And Well-organized Tropical Storm This

Afternoon. Visible Imagery Shows That The Central Dense Overcast

Pattern Seen This Morning Has Become More Of A Curved Band

Pattern...with Infrared Imagery Showing Tops Of -75c To -80c. An

Amsu Overpass At 1547z Showed A Banding Eye Underneath The

Convective Tops. Satellite Intensity Estimates Are 55 Kt From

Tafb...45 Kt From Sab...and 30 Kt From Afwa. Based On This...the

Initial Intensity Is Increased To 50 Kt.

 

The Initial Motion Is 350/3. Beta Is Drifting Toward A Weakness In

The Subtropical Ridge Caused By A Large Deep-layer Trough Over The

Eastern United States. Large-scale Models Suggest That After A

Series Of Shortwaves Pass Through The Southern End Of The Trough In

The Next 24-36 Hr...the Trough Should Lift A Little Northward And

Allow A Weak Ridge To Build Across The Northwestern Caribbean.

This Evolution Should Cause Beta To Drift Slowly Northward Or

North-northwestward For The Next 24-36 Hr...followed By A Westward

Motion. The Dynamical Models Generally Agree On This Scenario...

With The Gfs And Gfdl Calling For A Westward To West-southwestward

Turn...and The Ukmet And Nogaps Calling For A More Gradual Westward

Turn. The Official Forecast Is Between These Models And Is Just

East And North Of The Model Consensus. It Should Be Noted That Two

Models Which Bring Beta Northward Toward Cuba And Florida...lbar

And The Canadian...have Shown A Northward Bias In Previous Similar

Situations. Therefore...while Not Being Ruled Out As Possibilities

They Are Being Given Little Weight At This Time.

 

Conditions Continue To Appear Favorable For Rapid Intensification...

With The Rapid Intensification Index Attached To The Ships Model

Showing A 55 Percent Chance Of 25 Kt Or Greater Strengthening

During The Next 24 Hours. The New Intensity Forecast Calls For

This...making Beta A Hurricane In Just Over 12 Hr And A 75 Kt

System In 24 Hr. One Possible Restraining Factor Is That The Warm

Water Of The Southwestern Caribbean Is Relatively Shallow...and The

Slow Motion Of Beta Will Likely Result In Some Upwelling Of Cold

Water. However...the Effects Of This May Not Be Felt For 24 Hr Or

More. The Intensity Forecast Will Call For A Slower Development

Rate After 24 Hr Based On This Possibility...although It Would Not

Be Any Surprise If Beta Got Stronger And Became A Major Hurricane.

After Landfall...beta Should Weaken..especially When It Reaches The

Mountains Of Central America.

 

Most Of The Rainfall Currently Associated With Beta Is Offshore.

Once The Storm Comes Close Enough To The Coast To Bring The Rains

Onshore...floods And Mudslides Will Become Serious Threats.

 

Forecaster Beven

 

 

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

 

Initial 27/2100z 11.7n 81.4w 50 Kt

12hr Vt 28/0600z 12.1n 81.5w 60 Kt

24hr Vt 28/1800z 12.6n 81.6w 75 Kt

36hr Vt 29/0600z 13.0n 82.0w 85 Kt

48hr Vt 29/1800z 13.3n 82.5w 90 Kt

72hr Vt 30/1800z 13.5n 83.5w 95 Kt...near Coast

96hr Vt 31/1800z 13.5n 85.0w 40 Kt...inland

120hr Vt 01/1800z 13.0n 87.0w 20 Kt...inland Dissipating

[vicocala]

Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 5

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

11 Pm Edt Thu Oct 27 2005

 

Beta Is Definitely Not Intensifying Rapidly Tonight. The Cloud

Pattern Is Only A Little Better Organized And The Dvorak T-numbers

Are 3.5 On The Dvorak Scale. Ssm/i Microwave Data At 2344z Continues

To Show A Hint Of An Eyewall. The Initial Intensity Has Been

Increased Modestly To 55 Knots. Beta Is A Very Small Tropical Storm

And Based On Surface And Upper-air Observations From San Andres

Provided By The Colombian Weather Service...the Tropical Storm

Force Wind Radii Has Been Reduced In The Northwest Quadrant.

Surface Winds At San Andres Near 00z Were Only 11 Knots...and The

Center Of Beta Is Estimated To Be About 35 N Mi From That Location.

These Winds Were Confirmed By The Observer On The Island.

However...environmental Conditions Are Favorable For Beta To

Intensify Steadily Until Landfall In About 48 Hours. In Fact...the

Reliable Gfdl Brings The Cyclone To 100 Knots At Landfall And Ships

To 90 Knots.

 

Beta Has Continued Creeping Northward At About 2 Knots. Despite The

Current Northward Motion...there Is More Confidence Tonight That

Beta Will Remain Stuck In The Southwestern Caribbean Or Over Central

America By The Development Of A High Pressure System In The Gulf Of

Mexico And Florida. This High Has Been A Very Persistent Feature

And Has Steered Other Cyclones Toward Florida This Year...but In

This Case It Will Steer The Cyclone Away From The United States.

However...the High Will Not Save Nicaragua And Other Portions Of

Central America From The Cyclone. The High Should Force Beta

Westward Toward The Nicaraguan East Coast As A Dangerous Hurricane

In About 48 Hours. This Is The Solution Of The Global Models And

The Gfdl. Only The Canadian Model Brings The Hurricane Northward

Toward Cuba And The Uk To The Gulf Of Honduras. Most Likely These

Two Models Will Change Their Tune In The Next Run. We Shall See.

 

If Both Track And Intensity Forecast Verify...beta Will Likely

Be A Very Serious Hurricane Primarily For Nicaragua Producing

Considerable Damage From Both Winds And Torrential Rains.

 

Forecaster Avila

[vicocala]

Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 7

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

11 Am Edt Fri Oct 28 2005

 

Beta Is Generating Strong Central Convection With Tops To -86c.

However...overpasses From Amsr-e At 0705z And Ssm/i At 1148z

Suggest The Storm Has Become Somewhat Sheared...with The Convection

Displaced South And Southwest Of The Center. There Are Hints Of

This In Visible Imagery As Well. While Cirrus East Of Beta Are

Blowing Toward The Center...analyses From Cimss At The University

Of Wisconsin Show Only About 10 Kt Of Shear...which If Correct Does

Not Fully Explain The Apparent Structure. Satellite Intensity

Estimates Are 65 Kt From Tafb...55 Kt From Sab...and 45 Kt From

Afwa. The Initial Intensity Remains 55 Kt Based On A Blend Of

These And A 50 Kt Report At 0900z From Ships Zcam4 Just South Of

The Center. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Will

Investigate Beta This Afternoon.

 

The Initial Motion Is 360/4. Beta Is Moving Northward Toward A

Weakness In The Subtropical Ridge Caused By A Deep-layer Trough

Over The Eastern United States. Rawinsonde Data And Water Vapor

Imagery Indicate That A Strong Shortwave Trough Is Moving Eastward

Across The Southeastern U. S. And The Eastern Gulf Of Mexico. The

Dynamical Models Forecast Heights To Rise In These Areas After The

Trough Moves Into The Atlantic In 12-24 Hr. Satellite Imagery And

Surface Observations Also Suggest That The Low-level Ridge Over The

Western Atlantic And Northern Caribbean Is Building Westward. This

Evolution Should Turn Beta More Northwestward During The Next 24 Hr

And More Westward Thereafter. The Gfs...gfdl...nogaps...and Ecmwf

All Call For A Very Sharp Turn...while The Ukmet And Canadian Call

For A More Gradual Turn. The New Forecast Track Is Shifted A

Little More To The North Based On The Current Position And

Motion...calling For Landfall In Northeastern Nicaragua In 36-48

Hr. The New Track Is South Of The Ukmet But North Of The Overall

Model Consensus.

 

If Beta Is As Sheared As The Microwave Data Suggests...then The

Short-term Intensification Could Be Slower Than Currently Forecast.

That Being Said...the Ships Model Forecasts The Shear To Decrease

In 12-18 Hr...and The Gfdl Is Calling For Beta To Reach 95 Kt

Before Landfall. Thus...the Intensity Forecast Will Continue To

Call For Beta To Reach Category Two Intensity Before Landfall. The

Cyclone Should Weaken After Landfall...and It Could Dissipate

Faster Than Forecast Over The Mountains Of Central America.

 

One Outer Rainband Is Currently Spreading Onshore In Northeastern

Nicaragua And Eastern Honduras. As Beta Gets Closer To The Central

American Coast...the Threat Of Heavy Rains...floods...and Mudslides

Will Increase.

 

Forecaster Beven

 

 

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

 

Initial 28/1500z 12.9n 81.2w 55 Kt

12hr Vt 29/0000z 13.3n 81.2w 65 Kt

24hr Vt 29/1200z 13.9n 81.8w 75 Kt

36hr Vt 30/0000z 14.2n 82.6w 85 Kt

48hr Vt 30/1200z 14.6n 83.6w 80 Kt...inland

72hr Vt 31/1200z 15.0n 85.5w 30 Kt...inland

96hr Vt 01/1200z 15.0n 87.0w 25 Kt...inland Dissipating

120hr Vt 02/1200z 15.5n 88.5w 20 Kt...inland Remnant Low

 

 

$$

[vicocala]

Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 8

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

5 Pm Edt Fri Oct 28 2005

 

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Has Just Measured A Central

Pressure Of 990 Mb And Reported A Partial 15 N Mi Wide Eye.

However...the Maximum 850 Mb Flight-level Winds Are 51 Kt...which

Generally Does Not Support The 55 Kt Intensity Suggested By The

Central Pressure And The Satellite Intensity Estimates. It May Be

That A Tighter Inner Core Existed Earlier And Was Disrupted By The

Northeasterly Shear...and Is Just Now Coming Back Together. The

Initial Intensity Will Remain 55 Kt For This Advisory.

 

The Initial Motion Remains 360/4. While The Center Fixes Do Not Yet

Show A Significant Westward Component To The Motion...a Net

Northwestward Shift Of The Cloud Mass May Be A Precursor Of The

Expected Northwestward Turn. Water Vapor Imagery Indicates That A

Strong Shortwave Trough Is Moving Eastward Across The Southeastern

U. S. And The Eastern Gulf Of Mexico. The Dynamical Models

Continue To Forecast Heights To Rise In These Areas After The

Trough Moves Into The Atlantic In 12-18 Hr. Satellite Imagery And

Surface Observations Also Suggest That The Low-level Ridge Over The

Western Atlantic And Northern Caribbean Is Slowly Building Westward.

This Evolution Should Turn Beta More Northwestward During The Next

12-24 Hr And More Westward Thereafter. The Gfs...gfdl...and Nogaps

Models Still Call For A Westward Turn...although All Three Are

Somewhat To The North Of Their Previous Runs. The Ukmet Still

Calls For A More Gradual Turn...but Still Brings Beta Inland In

Nicaragua. The New Forecast Track Is Shifted Slightly To The North

For The First 48 Hr...calling For Landfall In Northeastern

Nicaragua In 36-48 Hr. The New Track Remains South Of The Ukmet

And Just North Of The Overall Model Consensus.

 

Analyses From Cimss At The University Of Wisconsin Indicate 15 Kt Of

Easterly Vertical Shear Over Beta. The Ships Model Suggests This

Will Persist For 12 Hr Or So...and The Intensity Forecast Has Been

Reduced Slightly During That Time. After The Shear Decreases...

Conditions Continue To Appear Favorable For Rapid Strengthening...

And The Gfdl Brings A Strong Category Two Hurricane Into Nicaragua.

Thus...the Intensity Forecast Continues To Call For Beta To Reach

85 Kt Before Landfall. The Cyclone Should Weaken After Landfall...

Especially Over The Central American Mountains...and It May Be That

Hanging On To It For 120 Hr May Be Generous.

 

The Wind Radii Have Been Reduced Downward Based On Surface And

Aircraft Data. Beta Has Been Much Slower To Grow In Size Than

Anticipated...and It May Be That Even The New Forecast Radii Are

Too Large. While The Winds May Spread Onshore Later Than

Originally Forecast...the Heavy Rains Will Be Spreading Into

Central America Starting Tonight.

 

Forecaster Beven

[ger_77]

Vicocala: Are you serious????? I can't tell you how sorry I feel for all the folks who live "down south", having to put up with stuff like that.

 

There's something to be said about living up here in the "frozen tundra" ... we've never had to deal with any Greek alphabet type storms or even any storms that had names associated with them. (Of course, DH has frequently called storms names when we've had to go and shovel our way out after they've passed.):D

 

Smooth Sailing! :) :) :)

[vicocala]

ger,

 

Not sure what you mean about being serious? :confused: :confused:

 

Everyone should stay alerted because two of the models still call for the storm to move north and over Florida, one in South Florida and the other near me in Northern Florida.

 

TROPICAL STORM BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005

 

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS BEEN IN DIRECT CONTACT WITH THE

METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF COLOMBIA AND HAS BEEN RECEIVING WEATHER

DATA FROM SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA. DATA FROM THE ISLAND OF

PROVIDENCIA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF BETA IS MOVING OVER OR VERY

CLOSE TO THE ISLAND. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE AT 00Z WAS 995 MB AND

WINDS WERE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 30 KNOTS. THE WINDS WERE 50 TO 55

KNOTS ONE HOUR EARLIER. A NEW REPORT JUST RECEIVED FROM THE ISLAND

INDICATES THAT THE WINDS ARE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH. BETA IS

GOING THROUGH ITS USUAL UP AND DOWN CYCLE IN THE CONVECTION AND NOW

IT IS ON THE UPWARD TREND WITH A VENGEANCE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS

BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS AND ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT BETA IS

ABOUT TO BECOME A HURRICANE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST

BETWEEN NOW AND THE TIME OF LANDFALL OVER NICARAGUA OR EASTERN

HONDURAS. THIS TREND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS AND WITH THE GFDL

MODEL WHICH TENACIOUSLY MAKES BETA A 95 TO 100-KT HURRICANE.

 

BETA APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ABOUT 4 KNOTS.

IT SEEMS THAT THE LEFT TURN INDICATED BY THE PARADE OF MODELS LED

BY THE GFDL IS BEGINNING. IT WOULD BE FOOLISH NOT TO FOLLOW THESE

ADVANCED MODELS...AND RIGHTFULLY SO...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS

BEEN TURNING BETA WESTWARD. THE CURRENT STEERING PATTERN WOULD

SUGGEST A NORTHWARD TRACK BUT THE CURRENT WEAKNESS IN THE GULF OF

MEXICO IS FORECAST TO BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS

NEW PATTERN WILL ULTIMATELY FORCE BETA TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD

CENTRAL AMERICA.

 

REGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY OF BETA AT LANDFALL...THIS TROPICAL

CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BRING TORRENTIAL RAINS TO PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AMERICA...PRIMARILY NICARAGUA...CAUSING CONSIDERABLE

DAMAGE...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. PLEASE BE

PREPARED FOR THIS EVENT.

 

FORECASTER AVILA

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 29/0300Z 13.6N 81.4W 60 KT

12HR VT 29/1200Z 14.0N 81.8W 65 KT

24HR VT 30/0000Z 14.5N 82.5W 75 KT

36HR VT 30/1200Z 14.5N 83.5W 85 KT

48HR VT 31/0000Z 14.5N 84.5W 30 KT...INLAND

72HR VT 01/0000Z 14.5N 86.5W 25 KT...INLAND

96HR VT 02/0000Z 14.5N 88.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

120HR VT 03/0000Z 15.0N 90.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

 

 

$$

[ger_77]

I mean - are you serious, ANOTHER STORM????? I agree, people must be kept informed of possible dangers associated with tropical storms, what I can't get over is there's more bad weather coming for you people!!!!!

 

When I see posts like yours (and they are very comprehensive - well done!), it makes our "frozen tundra" look better and better all the time. If anybody from the far south would like to get away for a while, we've got lots of room - just be warned, you might want to pack a sweater or two!:D

 

Smooth Sailing! :) :) :)

[vicocala]

Oh ok. :)

 

Sometimes words don't come across well on the internet, so I didn't know the context of your statement.

 

That's ok, I have lived in Mass which is cold and snowy enough for me.

 

Florida is great, just a bit overcrowded. I could live in the Virgin Islands though. :D

 

The last two years have been something else, but I have been blessed in the area I live. We have had several brushes and three power outages but have been very fortunate.

 

Trust me on this one, I would rather face what I face now than the blizzards and sub zero days of my youth. I do miss a white Chistmas, but they are more like the original one down here. :)

[vicocala]

Bulletin

Hurricane Beta Intermediate Advisory Number 11a

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

2 Pm Edt Sat Oct 29 2005

 

...beta Now Moving Westward And Continuing To Strengthen...

 

A Hurricane Warning Remains In Effect For The Northeastern Coast Of

Honduras From Punta Patuca To Cabo Gracias A Dios. A Hurricane

Warning Remains In Effect For The Island Of Providencia. A

Hurricane Warning Is Also In Effect For The Eastern Coast Of

Nicaragua From Bluefields Northward To Cabo Gracias A Dios Near The

Nicaragua/honduras Border...and Adjacent Islands.

 

A Tropical Storm Warning And A Hurricane Watch Remain In Effect For

The Caribbean Coast Of Nicaragua South Of Bluefields To The Border

With Costa Rica.

 

A Tropical Storm Watch Remains In Effect For The Northeastern Coast

Of Honduras From Limon Eastward To West Of Punta Patuca...including

La Ceiba.

 

A Hurricane Warning Means That Hurricane Conditions Are Expected

Within The Warning Area Within The Next 24 Hours. Preparations To

Protect Life And Property Should Be Rushed To Completion. A

Hurricane Watch Means That Hurricane Conditions Are Possible Within

The Watch Area...generally Within 36 Hours. A Tropical Storm Watch

Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are Possible Within The Watch

Area...generally Within 36 Hours.

 

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible

Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued

By Your Local Weather Office.

 

At 2 Pm Edt...1800z...the Center Of Hurricane Beta Was Located Near

Latitude 13.9 North...longitude 82.1 West Or About 65 Miles...

105 Km...northwest Of The Island Of Providencia. This Is Also

About 100 Miles... 165 Km...southeast Of Cabo Gracias A Dios On

The Nicaragua/honduras Border And About 85 Miles... 135 Km...east

Of Puerto Cabezas Nicaragua.

 

Beta Is Now Moving Toward The West Near 5 Mph... 8 Km/hr. This

General Motion Should Continue At A Slightly Faster Forward Speed

During The Next 24 Hours. This Motion Should Bring The Center Of

Beta Near The Northeastern Coast Of Nicaragua And The Nearby

Islands Late Tonight Or Early Sunday.

 

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 90 Mph...145 Km/hr...with Higher

Gusts. Beta Is A Category One Hurricane On The Saffir-simpson

Scale. Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next 24 Hours. Beta

Is Expected To Become A Category Two Hurricane Before Landfall In

Nicaragua...and There Is A Chance It Could Become A Category Three

Hurricane.

 

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 15 Miles... 30 Km...

From The Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up

To 60 Miles... 95 Km.

 

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 975 Mb...28.79 Inches.

 

Storm Surge Flooding Of 10 To 15 Feet Above Normal Tide Levels Is

Possible Along The Eastern Coast Of Nicaragua Near And To The North

Of Where The Center Makes Landfall. Storm Surge Flooding On

Providencia Should Gradually Subside Today And Tonight As The

Center Of Beta Moves Away.

 

Hurricane Beta Is Expected To Produce Torrential Rainfall With

Totals Of 10 To 15 Inches Across Northeastern Honduras...nicaragua

...san Andres...and Providencia...with Isolated Maximum Amounts Of

25 Inches Possible.

 

Repeating The 2 Pm Edt Position...13.9 N... 82.1 W. Movement

Toward...west Near 5 Mph. Maximum Sustained

Winds... 90 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure... 975 Mb.

 

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National

Hurricane Center At 5 Pm Edt.

 

Forecaster Beven

[rumple]

Well, I live in mid-state NY (near West Point) and I, for one, would brave the hurricanes for a chance to live in the tropics. I HATE the cold. Period! However, my DH, He Who Is The Voice Of Reason (going forward to be known as HWITVOR), says we cannot sink our hard-earned dollars into something that might get blown to smithereens. I hate it when he's right!

 

Vicocala, in light of your expertise, can you tell me if it looks like there is anything brewing for a 10 day cruise beginning Nov 11? I see disturbances coming across, but it looks like everything after Beta is breaking up.

 

Gosh, I sure hope so!!!!

 

Karen

[vicocala]

Hurricane Beta Discussion Number 13

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

11 Pm Edt Sat Oct 29 2005

 

Infrared Satellite Images Indicate That Beta Is Currently

Intensifying And Becoming Dangerous. T-numbers Have Increased To 5.0

On The Dvorak Scale And The Objective T-numbers Are On The Upward

Trend. It Appears That Beta Has A Small Eye Embedded Within Very

Deep Circular Convection. The Initial Intensity Has Been Increased

To 90 Knots And There Is About 12 Hours For Beta To Further

Intensify To Category 3 Status Before Landfall In Nicaragua Early

Sunday. Thereafter...the Hurricane Should Weaken Over The High

Terrain Of Central America.

 

The Anticipated Westward Motion Is Already In Place And This Turn

Was Brilliantly Forecast By The Gfdl And By Most Of The Global

Models. Now That Beta Is Moving Westward Or Even South Of Due West

At 4 To 5 Knots...it Is More Certain That The Cyclone Is Already

Trapped Within The Easterly Flow South Of The Developing Ridge.

This Steering Pattern Calls For A Continuation Of A General Westward

Motion Until Dissipation.

 

Regardless Of The Intensity Of Beta At Landfall...this Tropical

Cyclone Will Bring Torrential Rainfall To Portions Of Central

America...primarily Nicaragua And Honduras...causing Considerable

Damage...and Life-threatening Flash Floods And Mud Slides. Even

When Beta Moves Inland And Becomes A Weakening Cyclone...it Could

Still Produce Torrential Rains.

 

Some Of The Deep Tropical Moisture Associated With Beta May Get

Drawn Into A Developing Winter-type Low Pressure System Over The

Gulf Of Mexico By The Middle Of Next Week.

 

Forecaster Avila

 

 

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

 

Initial 30/0300z 13.7n 82.8w 90 Kt

12hr Vt 30/1200z 13.5n 83.6w 100 Kt...inland

24hr Vt 31/0000z 13.7n 84.7w 60 Kt...inland

36hr Vt 31/1200z 13.7n 86.0w 30 Kt...inland

48hr Vt 01/0000z 13.7n 87.0w 25 Kt...remnant Low

72hr Vt 02/0000z 14.0n 88.0w 20 Kt...dissipated

[vicocala]

Karen,

 

I am by no means an expert, just a long time watcher of tropical weather. There is no way anyone can tell you what may be happening two weeks from now.

 

I would say we still have the potential for more storms to form as the waters in the Caribbean as well as just off the African coast still have waters which are plenty warm enough to manufacture a storm(s).

 

This year in particular has been a very violent one and it will pay to keep our eye on anything brewing thru at least November. The way this year has played out a December storm wouldn't even suprise me.

 

In a normal year I would think you should be pretty safe, but this hasn't been a normal year.

[rumple]

Thanks for the opinion! I guess we will be singing "Que sera, sera...!"

 

Karen

[vicocala]

Hurricane Beta Discussion Number 15

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

10 Am Est Sun Oct 30 2005

 

Cloud Top Temperatures Were Rapidly Warming In The Hours Just Before

Beta Made Landfall Near 12z This Morning. The Landfall Intensity

Estimate Was 90 Kt...or Category Two...based On A Data-t Dvorak

Number Of 5.0 From Tafb At 1115z. Given The Small Size Of The

Hurricane...beta Should Weaken Very Rapidly As It Moves Farther

Inland...and The Circulation Is Expected To Dissipate During The 24

Hours Or So It Will Spend Over Land. However...in The Unlikely

Event That Beta Remains A Tropical Cyclone Throughout Its Overland

Passage...it Would Retain Its Name In The Eastern North Pacific

Basin.

 

The Initial Motion Is 235/6. Beta Has Moved Past A Weakness In

The Subtropical Ridge...and Should Continue On A General

West-southwesterly Track Along The Southeastern Periphery Of

Mid-level High Pressure Over Mexico Until It Dissipates.

 

Even Though Beta Is Weakening...the Threat Of Heavy Rains Will

Continue Over Nicaragua And Honduras For The Next Day Or So...and

These Rains Are Likely To Cause Life-threatening Flash Floods And

Mud Slides.

 

Forecaster Franklin

 

 

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

 

Initial 30/1500z 12.7n 83.8w 80 Kt...inland

12hr Vt 31/0000z 12.5n 84.7w 45 Kt...inland

24hr Vt 31/1200z 12.2n 86.5w 30 Kt...dissipating

36hr Vt 01/0000z...dissipated

[vicocala]

Bulletin

Hurricane Beta Intermediate Advisory Number 15a

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

1 Pm Est Sun Oct 30 2005

 

...beta Spreading Rains Over Nicaragua And Honduras...

 

A Hurricane Warning Remains In Effect For The Eastern Coast Of

Nicaragua From Bluefields Northward To Cabo Gracias A Dios Near The

Nicaragua/honduras Border...and Adjacent Islands. A Tropical Storm

Warning Remains In Effect For Eastern Coast Of Nicaragua South Of

Bluefields To The Border With Costa Rica. These Warnings Will

Likely Be Discontinued This Afternoon.

 

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible

Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued

By Your Local Weather Office.

 

At 1 Pm Est...1800z...the Center Of Hurricane Beta Was Located Near

Latitude 12.7 North... Longitude 84.0 West Or Inland About 50

Miles... 80 Km... North Of Bluefields Nicaragua.

 

Beta Is Moving Toward The West-southwest Near 7 Mph ...11 Km/hr. A

Generally West-southwestward Motion Is Expected Over The Next 24

Hours...and This Track Will Take The Center Farther Inland Over

Nicaragua Today.

 

Maximum Sustained Winds Continue To Decrease And Are Now Estimated

Near 75 Mph...120 Km/hr...with Higher Gusts. Beta Is A Category One

Hurricane On The Saffir-simpson Scale. Beta Is Expected Weaken To A

Tropical Storm This Afternoon...and The Circulation Is Expected To

Dissipate Over Nicaragua By Tomorrow.

 

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 15 Miles... 30 Km...

From The Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up

To 60 Miles... 95 Km.

 

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 990 Mb...29.23 Inches.

 

Storm Surge Flooding Will Continue To Subside This Afternoon.

 

Hurricane Beta Is Expected To Produce Rainfall Accumulations Of 10

To 15 Inches Across Nicaragua And Eastern Honduras... With Isolated

Maximum Amounts Of 25 Inches Possible. These Rains Could Cause

Life-threatening Flash Floods And Mud Slides. Additional 1 To 2

Inch Rainfall Amounts Are Possible In San Andres And

Providencia...where Isolated Storm Total Amounts Of 25 Inches Are

Possible.

 

Repeating The 1 Pm Est Position...12.7 N... 84.0 W. Movement

Toward...west-southwest Near 7 Mph. Maximum Sustained

Winds... 75 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure... 990 Mb.

 

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National

Hurricane Center At 4 Pm Est.

 

Forecaster Franklin

 

 

$$

[vicocala]

news story on Beta:

 

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051031/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/hurricane_beta