Hurricane Frances Graphics

[doak]

I'm in Jax and not liking that as an option.

[Cruising89143]

WOWZERS...

 

11 am advisory shows a very different track... with landfall at Jacksonville!

 

My grandsone in in Jacksonville, and his birthday is on Sunday!

 

OK - in last 24 hours landfall has been placed at Melbourne, then St Augustine, then back down to West Palm, then back up to Brevard county line, then Ft Pierce, and now Jacksonville.

 

Living in one of those areas, with grandkids in another, and an impending business trip to a third (maybe maybe at this point), I feel like a Tallahassee Ping-Pong ball on Saturday night! Somebody please just draw the darned numbers and turn off the air!!!

I'm sure that it will change many times again. It all depends on when or if Frances makes that turn to the northwest. The quicker the better for everyone involved. It seems that the computer models are having a hard time agreeing where she will make landfall. Some still place her over Miami.

[flamingosun]

You are right, of course, gordon.

Rarely do they set a course and stick to it.

I've even seen them turn and head out to sea long enough for everyone to breathe a sigh of relief, only to perform a 'loop' and head right back at us!

[plyman69]

Looks like san juan and st Thomas are getting the edges of the hurricane.. nice pictures of it via web cam too.

[hunterafri]

The 11AM NHC is now predicting a more southerly path. The percentage is Miami 10% and West Palm Beach 10%, with Jax at 2% and Key West 4%. We on the southwest coast are being shown as Tampa at 3%, Marco 5% and Ft Myers (just across the bridge at 5%). It is that damn tropical ridge that is keeping this hurricane from turning North. In fact it has moved from 280 to 275 degrees in the last few hours (more westerly) and sped up to over 15mph which is the worst thing that can happen since they believe that this ridge will weaken in 72 hours. That would be great when Francis was going 8mph but now with it going twice as fast it will hit land before the ridge disolves.

 

The eye of this storm is approaching 40 miles in diameter, where Charley was less than 10. Sustained winds are at 133mph with gusts at 159 mph.

 

I think I am going to head for Lookout Mountain in TN.

 

Vic

[thedrunkrock]

Hurricane Frances Update

 

 

Miami - August 30, 2004 - Royal Caribbean International is closely monitoring the path and progress of Hurricane Frances to ensure our guests enjoy safe and comfortable cruises and to make certain our ships steer clear of the storm.

 

The safety and comfort of our guests are always the foremost concern of Royal Caribbean International.

 

Given Hurricane Frances' current and projected path, we are currently altering the itineraries of three Royal Caribbean International ships:

Grandeur of the Seas will reverse it itinerary for its August 29 sailing. Tuesday it will call in Nassau, Bahamas, Wednesday it will call at Freeport, Bahamas, and Thursday it will call at Port Canaveral, Florida.

Navigator of the Seas will not make its normal port calls at St. Thomas, U.S. Virgin Islands, on Tuesday, San Juan, Puerto Rico, on Wednesday, and Labadee, Hispaniola, on Thursday. Instead, the ship will make a port calls at St. John, Antigua, on Tuesday, St. Thomas, U.S. Virgin Islands, on Wednesday, and remain at sea on Thursday.

Adventure of the Seas will not make its normal port call at Philipsburg, St. Maarten, on Tuesday. Instead, the ship will spend Tuesday at sea and make a port call at Philipsburg, St Maarten, on Saturday.

At this time, all other Royal Caribbean International ships are sailing their normal itineraries. We will continue to closely monitor the storm and update this information as needed.

[hunterafri]

Hunterafri,

 

Who do you have your house insured with? Who knows my husband, or some of the adjusters that he knows down there might have your loss. Maybe I can speed up your claim;)

 

Spring,

 

Thanks for the number! Hopefully it won't have to be used.

 

Colleen

STATE FARM is the insurance company and while I was typing this, they called my wife and said they would be there at 9AM Thursday about 24 hours before Francis.....

[flamingosun]

We are thinking we may be paying our nephew in Tallahassee a spur-of-the-moment visit real soon.:(

[SilverstoneGirl]

the only sites i would trust are NOAA and weather channel (because they go directly from NOAA)

 

NOAA now has it coming ashore in Jacksonville because of the northern curve she's taking.

 

everyone gets in such a panic. panicing doesn't help. all you can do is prepare yourself as best as you can and cross your fingers. at this point most of florida looks to be in the clear. :)

[AdrieneAGD]

Agreed with Silverstone. The most anything can be considered at this time is speculation. Whereas I am breathing a little easier due to the northern jog the forecast track has Frances taking, I'm not worrying to death if it changes (and it probably will).

[hunterafri]

the only sites i would trust are NOAA and weather channel (because they go directly from NOAA)

 

NOAA now has it coming ashore in Jacksonville because of the northern curve she's taking.

 

everyone gets in such a panic. panicing doesn't help. all you can do is prepare yourself as best as you can and cross your fingers. at this point most of florida looks to be in the clear. :)

Silverstone,

 

The site that I am looking at is the National Hurricane Center which is a division of noaa. The website address is www.nhc.noaa.gov The probability function shows where they feel it will go. The higher the probability the more likely. With the storm speeding up and the ridge still there the probability has gone up for the south Florida cities and lower for the northern Florida cities. But as someone said above it will change a lot until Saturday.

 

Vic

[AdrieneAGD]

Almost, Vic - the probability function shows where they have the possibility of going up to five days out.

 

Basically, take the probability function and couple it with the forecasted track. The truth probably lies somewhere between the two.

[Driftwoodgal]

Hunterafri,

 

Great that an adjuster has contacted you about an appointment. Not so great, if he comes out and adjusts it and then you have additional damage you will have two deductibles instead of one. Still keeping fingers crossed and prayers that you all will be in the clear.

[SilverstoneGirl]

hunterafri - that is the same as the regular NOAA site. ;)

 

the probabilities haven't been updated since 11am though. Frances didn't curve until 2-2:30pm. those probabilities are pretty much outdated by now. :)

[flamingosun]

We should get new data in about half an hour now. I am thinking that they will maybe start knowing a little more by tomorrow's updates, though. Today is really too soon for anything difinitive.. on the other hand, there's not really such a thing as definitive with hurricanes until just before they actually hit.

[flamingosun]

New maps show landfall just below Daytona. So they've made another slight adjustment to the south... probably as a result of the storm's increased speed.

[Cruising89143]

Here is the latest on Frances from the NHC in Miami. She is due to pass directly over Port Canaveral if she were to stay on this course.

 

 

 

[flamingosun]

Hmmm... that map puts her approximately on the northern outskirts of Titusville... a bit farther south than the one i looked at a few minutes ago.

Sigh.

Look for more changes later this evening.

[flamingosun]

Shoot!

Our local weather guy just said current track has it coming in at Merritt Island.

I am paying REAL close attention now.

[Driftwoodgal]

Flamingosun,

 

Where is Merritt Island.....? Sorry, I am not familiar with the eastern coast of Florida.

 

If that model is correct it looks like the poster from Ga will be hit by Frances as well. With all of the rain in West Virginia....lots of people are going to be hurt by this storm.

[flamingosun]

When you get on a ship at Port Canaveral, and look out over the railing, the land mass you see to your west is Merritt Island. From our driveway on central Merritt Island, to the Gangway of the Sovereign or Mariner, it is 12 minutes.

[curly4dana]

hi guys...looks like another report has her not going as far north as we thought. it was originally jax, but now it the cape area. flamingo...get the puck out of there!!! you are exactly where the new forecast puts frances!!!!!! you're a new friend...i don't want to lose you now!!!!!!!

[Cruising89143]

Well I will be leaving on the Fantasy Thursday to who knows where but I am not sure that we will be coming back to Pt. Canaveral on Sunday if that thing makes landfall there. I doubt that there will be much left of the port as it will be underwater. That is also going to create a mess for ships leaving out of this port on Saturday and maybe Sunday depending on what happens. I am planning to drive home to Atlanta on Sunday but I do not want to drive in pounding rain. May have to spend an extra day in Florida. I leave tomorrow morning for Pt. Canaveral. Wait and see is now the name of the game.

[curly4dana]

gordon???? where are you leaving from????? if frances hits canaveral, how the heck will the ship even be there???? oh, ok, you're leaving thursday, but they'll keep you out at sea rather than put the ship and passengers at risk bringing them back. have to called ccl???? i sure would!!!! i'm pulling for you buddy!!! i'm going to split and go to my moms. but i'm still pulling for you. if you call the cruise line, post and let us know what they say...

[flamingosun]

hi guys...looks like another report has her not going as far north as we thought. it was originally jax, but now it the cape area. flamingo...get the puck out of there!!! you are exactly where the new forecast puts frances!!!!!! you're a new friend...i don't want to lose you now!!!!!!!

Thanks for the concern, dana. Yep, we will definitely go if we need to. Gonna make preparations ... Probably take pics of everything tonight, tape windows, and elevate the good furniture sometime tomorrow just in case, secure garage door, bring in lawn furniture, wrap family heirlooms in plastic bags, etc. etc.

 

May head to home of a nephew in Gainseville or other nephew in Tallahassee.

Daughter and grandkids are in Jacksonville... THAT doesn't look like a good place to go... I am encouraging them to make plans of their own.

And Grandson's birthday is Sunday! (Guess his camp-out birthday party at an ocean-front park is pretty well shot...)