latest update on IVAN....

[Alphawave]

Having gone through Allison 3 years ago in Houston, I know full well what a complete heartbreak and trauma a hurricane can cause. Everyone was flooded out. I'm a nurse and I stayed for 2+ days in our NICU admitting infants from other facilities- no electricity, no phones. We had to warm babies inside of our shirts to try to keep them alive.

 

Therefore, I offer anyone who reads this to take a moment of silence to pray for all our members and ALL people in the path of this horrible storm.

 

 

God Bless,

 

 

Elaine

[springtxbill]

Here is a plot showing the tracks of the various models. Looks like Key West and the rest of Florida are in the middle of the sights.

Hurricane Ivan

[flamingosun]

Thanks for the Spaghetti model, Springtxbill!

Would you be kind enough to post an updated one sometime tomorrow?

[springtxbill]

I am not sure they update it regularly. It did not seem they did on frances, but if I find one, I will.

[flamingosun]

5 pm advisory has Ivan NOT coming into SE FL as previous tracks did. Instead, this track shows him off the coast of Tampa 2pm Tuesday, and heading almost due N.

[angelsil]

5 pm advisory has Ivan NOT coming into SE FL as previous tracks did. Instead, this track shows him off the coast of Tampa 2pm Tuesday, and heading almost due N.

 

Noooooooooooooooooooo!!!!

 

Can we bribe Ivan with some vodka and dancing girls? Maybe if we get him drunk, he'll be distracted and head out to sea.

[hkolln]

Ok enough Hurricanes for us!!! This one today is showing a path right thru Florida and thru us (Jacksonville). This one needs to go away, out to sea and not bother anyone. I didn't invite this one either!

 

Grenada 90% of the homes were destroyed. This is a bad one!

[flamingosun]

hkolln -

Not according to the 5 pm advisory. Noaa is doing the projection polka...

 

NOW they have it NOT touching land in SW Florida... Staying off Florida's WEST coast, maybe heading for Apalachacola if that track holds.

 

It won't. The expertise to forecast exact paths 5 days out just doesn't exist in the year 2004. So, the 'target' changes with eah new advisory. That's what I call the Projection Polka.

 

Today, the target has moved WEST a little more with each advisory, until Jax is now just barely on the fringes, if that.

[hkolln]

5 days out can vary alot. We were supposed to get the brunt of Frances here but it changed alot and we got tropical storm force winds which totally shut off our power here. I can't imagine hurricane force! All we can do is watch, wait, and prepare!

 

I was watching the weather channel an hour ago and it showed the middle of the track going right thru us...and our local weather the same. But then again hurricanes are not at all predictable.

 

Hey has anyone seen THREE hurricanes hit Florida in any given hurricane season? I've been here since 89 and haven't seen this happen before.

 

I guess this is why I cruise in February.

[flamingosun]

Hmmm- they must be using a different computer model than NOAA.

 

Here's the link to the NOAA website, where you can see their projections (still a polka, but at least it is NOAA's Polka):

 

www.noaa.gov

[Alphawave]

According to weather reports, the conditions are right for a decade of high hurricane activity. Not sure why every 25 years there exists a chain of hurricanes. My daughter is a meteorologist, perhaps she can answer this. By the way, that report was on Fox News, tonite.

[yarlenna]

This storm is both large and strong. The dotted line represents an average of the computer models. Charley and Frances taught us many things. One of them is that hurricanes don't go along the line formed by averaging computer models. Forcasting is still an art. Look at the cone of probability. ALL of the area of the cone is in danger. My next question is: What path can cruise ships take to bring their ships back to Miami etc without crossing the path of a storm - and sail only in calm seas. I am so ready for November.

[mojo4trav]

the conditions are right for a decade of high hurricane activity. Not sure why every 25 years there exists a chain of hurricanes.

It has to do with ocean temps, the warmer the water the stronger and more frequent the storms. These temps typically fluctuate warmer/cooler on 25-year cycles. Most experts believe 1998 was the beginning of the current cycle of warmer ocean temps and should continue until 2023.

[hkolln]

That is interesting about every 25 yrs and the temperatures. I never thought about that possibility. We had hurricane Dora here in the 60's and that was the last major one we got. Hurricane Floyd scared us but went north into the carolinas.

 

The path I got off our local website (http://www.jacksonville.com) has a huge cone of possibility. We can never predict where exactly they go. Tomorrow it can go more west or more east. If the trough coming thru is weak it will go more west..if it's stronger it will push the cane more east into Florida. Guess all we can do is wait and see. Everyone be safe!

 

I just hope it dies before it does cause anymore major damage.

[flamingosun]

I lived in Jax Beach when Dora came through... rode it out in our family home just 9 blocks from the ocean...