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About Frank5

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  1. Given the length of time it is likely to take to inoculate the overwhelming majority of people around the world to achieve herd immunity (75% to 85%) and the availability of vaccine to achieve such an ambitious goal, it may be prudent not to plan any type of cruise vacation in 2021 and plan a different type of land holiday closer to home.
  2. Jim, Your assessment makes a lot of sense to me. It sounds like a reasonable potential deal for the owner providing he can obtain favorable credit terms from his lenders who may disagree with his assessment of the collateral value of these ships as well as future cash required to keep his company viable until the cruise industry resumes operations. If I a wide enough gap develops between their assessments, they may require that he pledge more of his assets than just what he already has invested in his company. It should be an interesting negotiation made more difficult if a def
  3. Thanks. It sounds like Crystal may be a thinly capitalized operating company that manages and markets ships leased from its parent with no significant assets of its own. If this is an accurate description of Crystal’s financial statements. then its cash flow requirements will be limited to primarily employee compensation and warm layup ship costs since they can delay lease payments to their parent without adverse financial consequences. If the above description is accurate, then the bankruptcy risk is mainly at the parent level since there is little value for creditors in a Crystal b
  4. Does anyone know if Crystal leases (third party or captive) its ships or if it owned them outright?
  5. Interesting reading. Thanks. After reading it, my guess is that cold layups are not on the table as cash conservation measures and that they would not be considered until operations have been suspended for over a year and attempts to raise cash and reduce expenses through asset sales have proven to be unsuccessful.
  6. After reading the posts on this thread, I’ve become curious regarding the relative costs of cold versus warm layup in terms of a cruise line attempting to conserve cash to remain viable and the need to maintain assets suitable for asset sales assuming there sre few if any other alternatives to raising cash. Excluding the cost of repairing ship deterioration due to a cold layup, does anyone have a feel for the monthly cash cost of maintaining Crystal size ships on warm versus cold layup?
  7. Bankruptcy will depend upon the length of time that cruise lines cannot operate. In addition, the creditors in a bankruptcy often negotiate but not always an agreement to keep the debtor operating through a business downturn. Since this length of time is presently unknowable, I would not get too excited about this development. For example, sometimes a debtor will intentionally not make a scheduled debt payment to motivate its creditors to negotiate a better deal. Another unknowable, is that should a creditor call an event of default following the typical cure period (generally ranges betw
  8. If Carnival Corp is forced to reorganize in bankruptcy, they will eventually reappear after restructuring their debt and resume operations at some level. They may be required to sell some ships and/or operate on a reduced basis. Their debt holders may even allow them to resume operations until a restructuring agreement can be negotiated. If Carnival owes customers refunds, they will be treated as unsecured creditors.
  9. A relative empty cruise ship convention!
  10. I found it interesting that Carnival Cruse Lines reported a surge in reservations after recently announcing they would resume North American operations in August. I must be more conservative than most people avoiding making a future cruse reservation and accompanying air reservation until our COVID future becomes less murky. I intend to limit my traveling to U.S. land destinations for the balance of 2020 as well as 2021 since most experts expect COVID to return this coming fall and winter even if we get it under control this summer.
  11. One potential problem with a river cruise is they generally stop in a number of different countries which may have conflicting restrictions relative to accepting tourists while containing COVID. Does a LNG fueled ship have fewer port choices where LNG refueling capabilities are available?
  12. I have read that the type of oil burned by ships is highly polluting. Is this true? Are their any technologies such a scrubbers that can mitigate this problem?
  13. Today a read a report on the short term positive impact COVID-19 lockdowns are having on air pollution due to less combustion of fossil fuel. The photographs (before and after) are striking. If any good comes from this outbreak, I hope it will make us more aware and motivate us to burn less fossil fuels in the future.
  14. Psoque, Consistent with your view was an excellent recent interview on U.S. public television of the science editor of “The New York Times” who said that the view that COVID -19 will be controlled this year is fantasy.
  15. Kieth certainly captured the complexity involved in a cruise line resuming operations from a complete stop for multiple ships. I imagine all this required activity including signing new contracts, transporting crew, replenishing, cleaning and moving a ship requires a significant cash expenditure at a time when cruise lines must conserve cash. If COVID subsides this summer, they also must evaluate their financial risk should it resume in late fall or early winter and require a second curtailment of their operations. I don't envy the task of their CEO and CFO making a restart decision. Perha
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