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Ride-The-Waves

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  1. Probably more than "several months." Scanned the directive and believe it make sense as a follow-on to the expiring "no sail" order. It provides a way forward for cruise lines to resume cruising. However, it is a very challenging list of conditions which must be met to include simulated cruises, frequent testing, onboard limitations and 7-day cruise limits. And today we read that yesterday the US reached a new high in the number of infections: 98,000, an increase over the 90,000 from Thursday. And over 1,000 deaths. The trend is moving the wrong direction!!! In Europe the UK is serious about a lockdown to stop its expanding virus spread. Not a time to celebrate yet.
  2. Excellent comment and agree completely. One of the reasons the US Constitution starts: We the People...
  3. Excellent chart. Thanks for sharing. Find it very interesting that the US state of North Dakota has approximately ten times the rate of its Canadian neighbors. Good job Manitoba and Saskatchewon.
  4. Teerick: My posts are apolitical. I belong to no political party of political persuasion. A life-long independent who is educated and trained, as a career intelligence professional, to look at data and provide conclusions. I offer facts, not innuendo or fantasy. Facts based on 30 years in uniform serving the Constitution, and 12 years as a senior civilian, global travel to all 7 continents and more countries than I want to count, and living/residing in places from Communist eastern Europe to western Europe to the US. Firmly believe in Mark Twain: "Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." According to Twain, travel is the antidote for prejudice. My career was one of factual analysis. An extremely important consideration when discussing issues like pandemics. I also was a professor of national security strategy at the US National War College and have a good understanding of the USG, its responsibilities and functions. My comments are fact based, not fantasy. I am disappointed in not being able to cruise, as is my wife of 50 years. We really enjoy getting out and seeing new places, meeting new people and even revisiting old haunts (like Switzerland). Can't do that at the moment and based on our ages the pandemic may outlast us, or at least preclude us from traveling as we like to do it. As a country with world class science and medical capabilities, we failed keeping our fellow citizens safe. Didn't need to be that way. Numbers don't lie (although as you point out liars can manipulate numbers). COVID-19 should not have propagated as it did across the US. Right at this moment COVID-19 is again spreading across Europe and the US. France, Germany, the UK and others are taking serious measures to limit its spread. The US, once again, is not. Some are saying that the current federal administration has "given up." The political side - maybe. I know there are lots of great Americans working in the federal government who are doing their best to mitigate the spread, establish policies and procedures which permit life to go on as best and normal as possible. We need to support them, not denigrate their efforts. If we want to get back to "riding the waves" we need to do all the things the CDC recommends, using PPE, social distancing, stop congregating, etc., and even as Dr Fauci advocates, have a national mask mandate! We are all in this together. And together implies individual effort and compliance for the whole to be successful.
  5. "Freedom" is a funny thing. When I was attached to the US embassy in Bucharest as diplomat in1989/1990 the people overthrew their dictator Nicholai Ceaucescu. He was a true despot. Shortly after his death the Foreign Service Nationals at the embassy began questioning us about freedom, the freedom to congregate, and the freedom of speech. Civics lessons for all. However, most interesting might have been the reaction of the local citizen on the roads. Cars during the Ceaucescu period were few and far between. High party officials and similar had cars. Within a couple of weeks more and more people owned cars. The result was horrendous crashes at intersections. Why? Because "freedom" meant that you could do whatever you wanted. Not paying attention to traffic signals being a prominent freedom. Civilization knows that "freedom" does not imply your unmitigated ability to cause harm to others. The CDC "no sail" order is one way that "freedom" is balanced with social responsibility. We have to collectively work together to make sure that everyone on a cruise, everyone traveling to meet up with a cruise or on their way home, is safe from this horrible virus. Collective effort is required, managed from those we hold responsible for our safety. Europe, despite its increasing vulnerabilities in Phase II, does this much better than the US. People understand the need for a collective response. Hopefully, this will get us through the next phase and into better times when everyone can resume cruising and traveling.
  6. Agree. However the federal government has the authority and the responsible to mandate policies for all Americans, be it safety or restrictive. The CBO (Congressional Budget Office) tracks these and opines on costs. Hundreds every year. Public Law 116-22 is a good example enabling the federal government to preempt state policies for the benefit of all Americans: This enables direct federal involvement in the security and safety of all Americans. The US CDC is an agency which has cross-state authorities to implement procedures covering all Americans as we have all seen with its directives regarding cruising.
  7. Those countries have more of a collective spirit and outlook than others, such as the US. This is a good test to see if humanity can pull together to fight a pandemic. In the meantime, religiously apply PPE and social distancing standards.
  8. You are observant. In the US the current federal administration has essentially "given up" any sense of managing COVID-19 which implies a 3-month period where primarily local and state management of movement will be the process to control COVID-19 migration. Not optimal. And, not something non-US countries will be able to deal with as policies will vary and management will be jumbled. Travel into and from the US will be restricted by others. Cruising? Forgetaboutit! Even Caribbean countries will not be welcoming to US travelers.
  9. Unlikely that they will "sail along" with Schengen countries, the US and Canada closed to tourism much less cruise ships. Limiting travel and restricting group size, attendance at sporting events, etc., and effective use of PPE is the only way known to medical professionals to limit to spread of COVID-19. Even if/when a vaccine is approved and found effective it will be long while before it is available to the general public. Plus, latest information is that it will take two "shots" to obtain effectiveness - with some to be determined time between the two. That is around 16 billion doses which will take quite a while to dispense much less produce. Tourists and "cruisers" will not be a high priority. "Cruising" restart, with all the restrictions recommended by the CDC and the RCG/NCL study, by Summer 2021 is a very long shot. And, it will require changes in the way we think of cruising...
  10. The last NFL team to survive undefeated was the 1972 Dolphins!
  11. Speaking of movement and COVID-19, France and Germany have just announced new "lock downs" to protect citizens from exposure to the increasing virility of COVID-19. Very sorry to see this being necessary and don't bode well for the restart of tourist travel between the US and Europe especially for those of us wanting to cruise European waters and trans-Atlantics. Age initial estimate is for 4 weeks! Personally believe it will be for a longer period since this virus, as we saw earlier this year, is not easy to mitigate. Azamara may have it right in that the first "cruises" will need to wait until late Spring in Europe at the earliest. In the US Spring return to any limited semblance of cruising may be optimistic as European have more cultural discipline than Americans.
  12. Nope. Doesn't discuss the guarantee of "freedom of movement." Both the Federal government and state governments have the authority to restrict and/or control the movement of citizens. Done all the time: hurricane evacuations, law enforcement security, etc. Its for the safety of all citizens. The federal government can also restrict movement into certain areas, federal lands, security sites. Nothing in the Constitution guarantees "freedom of movement" of individual citizens. Restrictions are especially important in this environment when it comes to cruising. Both federal and state government can and do limit civilian movement for the security of all citizens.
  13. "Unconstitutional?" Sorry, can't find that article or amendment in the copy I have in front of me.
  14. The risk remains high. A study in Ireland from an actual 7-hour flight with tracing afterwards showed propagation of 59 cases of COVID-19 from a 7-hour flight that was at 17 percent capacity: 13 direct while on board and another 46 from post-flight contagion. Flying remains a concern, especially for seniors and those with under-lying conditions. A large national outbreak of COVID-19 linked to air travel, Ireland, summer 2020 https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.42.2001624 This is reality! Of course, the airlines and their association (IATA) don't want you to know that...
  15. Azamara is a good example of what the cruise lines are thinking on restarting. They ahem three ships and scheduled them to recommence operations in late March, April and May. That was prior to the resurgence of COVID-19 across Europe and the US. Europe is especially being hit hard with closures in France, Spain, Italy, Germany and other countries. And, the winter is just starting...! Even under "new normal" procedures it's unlikely cruising will be back before late Spring at the earliest.
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