Baron Barracuda

So they're issuing $1.25B five year 11 5/8% notes to refund near term debt including the remainder of the 2 7/8% and 4 1/4% converts due next year. They'll argue eliminating converts is anti-dilutive but that high coupon will likely increase annual interest expense almost $100MM.

Niece and friends just off the NCL Joy. Very hard to make dinner reservations despite mdr being only 1/2 full. 2 1/2 hours for dinner. Brother had similar situation last month on Freedom. Obviously severely short staffed. NCL only projecting 80% loads next qtr held down by staffing. All cruise lines in same situation to varying degrees. Needs to be resolved before they can start making money.

Our TA is pretty good however we still book direct with Viking allowing us to deal directly with Viking Air. Then, after all our flights are set we transfer booking to TA.

The $1B in new notes maturing in 2025 carry 6% rate and are convertible around $50. The bonds they are buying back, the 2 7/8% and 4 1/4% notes of '23 are convertible at $80 and $72 respectively. Lot to pay for two extra years of liquidity.

Keep an eye out for sales. We did Viking in a PV3 for $200/day. Absolutely loved it.

That's standard LLP baloney. They need anyone who's willing to book a cabin. A 70 year old still has many years of sailing left in them and more free time to do so than folks still working.

Took quick look but didn't see conversion price on 2 7/8% and 4 1/4% bonds of '23 they plan to repurchase but at time they were issued in June '20 stock traded around $60. Can only assume new converts will carry higher interest rate and lower conversion price. They claim issuance is non-dilutive but each $1 of new bond will likely be convertible into more RCL shares than $1 of old bond.

In 30 years sailing with X have NEVER noticed a large group of children on a sailing. Took my children on an X cruise back in the 90's when they were pre-teens and they enjoyed it. Then took them on Royal. That was it. For the next 10 years they only wanted Royal. How can you blame them? X allows kids but Royal encourages them with water slides, zip lines, surfing, bumper cars, skydiving, etc. IMO one way to increase the average age onboard is bring back the longer 12-14+ night sailings that are less attractive to families.

They should review the coverages on their travel insurance, auto insurance, homeowners insurance and credit card.

Got the basic offer and was surprised. Not much of a gambler and while Elite haven't sailed with X in 4 years. Sadly for us on the east coast airfare offsets the cruise savings. Appears better to book all-inclusive and drive to Bayonne.

Q: What do Bank of America, Susquehanna, CFRA, Morgan Stanley and Deutsche Bank all have in common? A: After reviewing 2q financials and listening to conference call all cut their price target on RCL today. B of A is the lowest at $35.

Jason Liberty apparently commented RCL has no current plans to issue equity. That's the good news. Read through the earnings announcement which shows continued slow, gradual improvement. Little hope for rapid return to profitability but no new red flags either. Would have hoped for greater enthusiasm for 4q '22 when loads are expected to top 100%. One item that struck me was the expense ratios at the end of the financials. They report total Gross Costs per APCD at just over $200. Gross costs include just about everything except interest expense. Adding that $300mm brings total costs up to $230 per APCD implying that if every ship was sailing at 100% occupancy they need to earn $230/pp/day to break even. While suites run a lot higher they only make up around 15% of cabins. Yesterday while perusing October '22 - April '23 sailings for a number of ships I was struck by how most were offering balconies for only around $77/night. Even next summer balconies on Caribbean itineraries are only running $150 - $170 pp/day. Onboard sales will help but they'll need stronger pricing to generate any meaningful earnings.

OP didn't say what airports they'll be flying in/out of. Some are handling the situation better than others. Just returned from river cruise Amsterdam - Budapest where five of our checked bags continued to tour Europe even after we returned home. Returning home a tight connection in Munich caused four bags to get left behind while the fifth somehow missed our outgoing flight from EWR and then unsuccessfully spent two weeks chasing us down the Rhine. The good news is that all were delivered to our homes within four days of returning home. Be sure to review the delayed and lost luggage provisions in your travel insurance and credit card. The member of our party whose bag got stuck in NJ used her $1k delayed luggage benefit throughout the trip to purchase a new wardrobe. Had the bag been permanently lost she would have been entitled to up to another $3k.

RCL will report earnings in just two weeks on August 3rd. Suggest anyone tempted to invest hold off until then to hear what Jason Liberty has to say. Three months ago Liberty was upbeat on the outlook for '22 and '23, expecting to turn cash flow positive soon and maybe turn a profit in q4. Interested to hear if he has tempered his enthusiasm. As far as potential stock issuance, going into q2 common equity for RCL was down to $4B after losing $1B+ in each of the prior two quarters. Another big loss would almost certainly force them to issue a large amount of stock, likely at prices lower than today.

Not sure who's balance sheet the "Bull" was looking at (or maybe what he was imbibing) but how can he say Royal has been aggressively paying down debt and debt is currently only 1x equity? As of 3/31 ltd / equity was 7.26. Equally scary, he says the biggest reason to be bullish is Royals efforts to use technology to boost revenue. Their IT dept and web site have been ridiculed endlessly on these boards.

DW managed to talk herself onto several sold out tours. Buses usually have extra seats and they're happy to take your money.

Endeavor is a 200 passenger glorified yacht. Can't expect it to have any impact on RCL's financials. If CDC news means no more testing that will help however the airline mess makes people less willing to travel. European airports are an absolute disaster. Got back from Munich Saturday and still waiting for Lufthansa to locate our four bags.

While Celebrity are the ones that messed up I believe you have a major gripe with your ta. He/she was responsible for ensuring everything was booked properly and should have reviewed your final cruise documents prior to sending them to you. Also, from my experience, whenever you book through a ta or transfer a direct booking to one all communication with the cruise line has to pass through them. The cruise lines will not deal with you directly. When you learned of your airline trouble your first phone call should have been to the ta and it was their job to resolve the issue with X.

Assume OP didn't book through a TA. If he/she had that would be the person spending hours on hold with X.

While the entire stock market is down the cruise lines are in much worse shape than most. No earnings, not yet cash flow positive, lots of additional debt, lower equity (despite lots of additional shares outstanding) and currently facing rising interest rates, high fuel prices, high inflation, higher personnel costs, softening demand, persistent covid concerns, airline disruptions and a very strong $USD. Hopefully they will manage to get through this but it will be a very long time before earnings (or the stock) can hope to approach 2019 levels.

DW and friend flew from Newark to AMS on 7/1 ahead of a Viking river cruise. After two hour search UAL admitted friend's bag had been left behind at EWR but promised to expedite it directly to boat. That was 10 days ago and still no sign of bag. Last heard it was in Cologne. Friend has $1k baggage delay coverage in her travel insurance ($3k if ultimately lost) plus whatever UAL and her credit card provide. It's aggravating but at least she'll come home from Europe with a new wardrobe.

Either it was a very casual wedding or crashers broke out their formal night attire.

At least some airlines (Delta for one) have a call-back option so you can go about your business and your phone will ring once you reach the front of the queue.

Over the weekend Barrons did a mea culpa, backing away from a favorable piece they had done on the cruise industry just two months ago. "In retrospect Barrons was overly bullish on the sector". I found this concerning because absent some major event Barrons typically allows a fair amount of time to pass before re-examining a recommendation. To reverse their opinion this quickly implies either their original analysis was flawed or the situation has noticeably deteriorated. Now, in addition to the leverage issue they quote analysts concerned about recession fears, inflation and interest rates. They admit the cruise industry has weathered a number of prior recessions but not with the debt levels they're carrying today.

Morgan Stanly took an axe to CCL today, reducing price target from $13 to $7 and saying in a bearish case stock could go to $0. Concerned about bookings and pricing in face of likely recession, high debt, and low equity. Concerned that much of liquidity comes from customer deposits which could dry up in event of another systemic shock. Concerned if liquidity shrinks high yield bond market might not be receptive to new cruise line debt. On the other hand, Barclays today initiated coverage of CCL with an overweight rating and a $14 price target and Carnival made statement that they expect ships to sail with 110% occupancy this summer. CNBC has run the MS story several times today with hosts and guests pretty much concurring on risk industry is facing. CCL currently trading down 14% with NCLH and RCL each down 10%.