Carnival shares - good time to buy

[CASPALL]

Anyone wanting to buy their 100 shares to get the onboard spend should look at the Carnival shareprice now :cool:

Remember - it covers more than P&O as well.

 

Caryl

[FLUFFY01]

Hi

 

With the downturn in the economy in the UK, Europe and America, I think less people will be cruising in the future, especially the younger generation. It is a gamble and if you only want the shares for OBC then it is an expensive gamble, otherwise it is a long term investment.

As they say shares can go down as well as up.

I will watch with interest in the price.

 

Regards

JO

[CASPALL]

3yrs ago they went down to £11 so keep watching

 

Caryl

[LibraLass41]

I bought 100 shares at £20 and sold at £30 each at their near peak about a year ago now, since then they had dropped to around £19 yesterday a day before,...I had them for a couple of years got lots of shareholders obc as well as normal booking offers obc and divi payments and then sold for £1000 profit on a £2000 outlay . I was a very happy bunny:p BUT I too saw my £20 shares drop after I bought them to £13 so I held my nerve and just waited till they rose - and some!!

 

As usual with shares -don't buy them unless you can afford to loose, and wait to sell at the right time. If you cruise more than once a year the obc you get seems a better return than the interest you would of got on the £2k outlay.

[CASPALL]

Wise words Sue :)

 

Caryl

[Beopthtuh]

we got ours years ago with the intent on them being long term investmant .

2 - 3 cruises a year soon adds up to a decent return in obc .

if they drop to £11.00 we will get some more added

[ZCDW9]

With the downturn in the economy in the UK, Europe and America, I think less people will be cruising in the future, especially the younger generation.

 

I'm not quite sure about this - I can see the likes of OV coming back and growing in popularity.

[southwinds]

If you plan to take lots of cruises in time you get your money back ( your stake) in OBC etc so in time they have paid for themselves... Also the divis are paid out four times a year and has been a good return on its own. We have had up to £80 a year...

But never buy shares if you cant afford to lose the stake...;)

[FLUFFY01]

I'm not quite sure about this - I can see the likes of OV coming back and growing in popularity.

 

Sorry, what is OV.

 

Regards

JO:)

[weatherman46]

OV stands for Ocean Village

[Beopthtuh]

cant see o.v. returning wasnt much cheaper then princess or p&o just more relaxed in dress code

[hansi]

Hi

 

With the downturn in the economy in the UK, Europe and America, I think less people will be cruising in the future, especially the younger generation. It is a gamble and if you only want the shares for OBC then it is an expensive gamble, otherwise it is a long term investment.

As they say shares can go down as well as up.

I will watch with interest in the price.

 

Regards

JO

 

I bought my shares specifically for OBC and I have made far more with the OBC and dividends than I would have saving the £2k in any bank.

[Freecall]

Buy, buy, buy I say!

 

They need all the help they can get.

 

.

[MattyBarlow]

Bump!

[LibraLass41]

Yep,glad I sold now... but it maybe a good time to buy if thats what you are thinking of doing.

 

This accident we now know was not a ship build fault but a human error,which hopefully will not happen again.... saying that,it was a good job the Concordia was so near to land, there would be no doubt more loss of lives out at sea.

The Shareprice will no doubt rise again as people realise that ship was not to blame, just the Captains gross misjudgement.

[southwinds]

If you look on the shareholding web site it will show you who the large corpororate holders of the share are... they havent sold !!! ;)

You can also see any large purchases..;)

Its just one very sad accident. But truth is you are more likely to be killed on the way to the ship and on it...

 

BUY.. if you want the gamble and want the OBC.. in time they will have paid for them selves with OBC and dividends so if you plan to cruise lots on Carnival then BUY

[LibraLass41]

Agree, no one in their right mind would sell at the moment after a £3-4 drop in shareprice. Hold on to them if you have them and hope they will rise again.

 

I sold at a fantastic price of over £30 each,a while back and they never really went passed the figure and dropped and dropped , and have no regrets but if I had them now I would hold my nerve, keep them, and hope they will rise over the £18 or so they are at the moment. ;)

[Blackrat]

cant see o.v. returning wasnt much cheaper then princess or p&o just more relaxed in dress code

 

There is a strong rumour that the Ocean Village will be returning in the next couple of years and that the Oceana has initially been earmarked as OV1.

 

Oceana would give a very similar but updated experience to the old OV2 (only my opinion).

 

The share price has levelled off at the moment but I am hoping it will go down a little further for February when I will be in a position to top up. It may well do this after the scale and cost of the clean-up/salvage are known and further when a sum is put aside to cover legal actions by the passengers or relatives.

 

I believe and apparently so do the ship builders that the UK/EU market is lagging behind the US market for cruises and that this is likely to expand not contract.

 

So is it worth investing? I say yes, forget the dividend and on-board spend and current share price and look at the value of the ships and the business fundamentals, this will give you a good indication as to whether your money is likely to be safe in the long term. For the medium term look at the projected dividends and the prospect of re-investing these back into the company. For the short term, yes the OBC is great to have.

 

Will I buy, yes but in February. Should you buy NO! Well not till after February otherwise you will push the price up:)

 

Always do your own research with investments and consider this for the medium to long term 3+ years.

 

I am not a financial advisor

[bvm49]

How much is the OBC for being a shareholder?

[BrianI]

How much is the OBC for being a shareholder?

It depends on the length of the cruise.

For P&O its

£125 for 14 days+

£50 for 7-13 days

£25 for 6 days or less

For US dollar based ships (Cunard, Princess, HAL etc) and Aussie ships its

$250/$100/$50

For Euro based ships (Costa) its

€200/€75/€40

 

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=140690&p=irol-sharebenefit

 

Brian

[burrma]

Would appreciate someone with more knwoledge than I to give direction. After another problem with Costa; is now a good time to buy?

Had Carnival stocks ages ago and sold and made lots of money; interested in rebuying again but when?

Thanks

[Blackrat]

Would appreciate someone with more knwoledge than I to give direction. After another problem with Costa; is now a good time to buy?

Had Carnival stocks ages ago and sold and made lots of money; interested in rebuying again but when?

Thanks

 

Hi Burrma,

The age old question, when to buy. First of all I am not giving financial advice and the usual qualification of "Do your own research" applies

 

My view has been to buy. Recently I bought at 1934p which I felt was the bottom or close to it. Try never to buy as the price is dropping (catching a falling dagger) but rather wait until you judge it is at the bottom and starting to make a retrace back up. This is not easy as sometimes a share will hit bottom come back up slightly only to plummet down (dead cat bounce).

 

The company has strong fundamentals and plenty of value in its business, certainly the US cruise ships are always doing well. So is it worth doing?

 

Well it costs £2000 give or take to buy sufficient shares (£1,934 not including charges in my case) to get the On Board Credit (OBC) of £125 or about 6.5% return on your money. This doesn't include the 3% dividend that you also get on top of this so another £60 a year. If you put the same money in a building society and got what I think would be a high rate of interest of say 3% then all you would get is £60.

 

£60 vs £185 this assuming you bought at 2000p. Even if the price dropped with more bad news after you bought, its still not a bad deal.

 

Things that could hurt the price even more....higher oil prices, the Costa ship breaking up, and random news stories that are being linked to the Costa incident, such as the ship with the engine fire the other day.

 

I still think this is a good deal and my view is the Costa line will be "re-branded" in the fullness of time. New ships rolling off the production lines and sea travel being seen as good value with no airport hassles.

 

I've noticed that the price is cyclical and normally goes up during the Caribbean window of cruises and then drops back after that part of the season finishes. Probably people buying/selling short term as they book cruises. My view is to hang on to them, especially if you are not confident to trade.

 

I'm not in the business or trying to ramp up sales in the share, these are just my opinions and I am more than happy to be shot down by people with more knowledge.

 

Cheers,

Blackrat

[burrma]

Sincere thanks Blackrat for taking the time to offer such good advice. Appreciate it.

[daiB]

We take at least 2 longer cruises a year so that's £250 plus the divi which males well over 12% on when we bought the shares.

 

Gan Canny

 

Dai

[Freecall]

The way I look at it is that at any point in time the share price reflects the distilled knowledge of the entire market on how much it is worth. If it gets out of line by even a fraction of a penny then there will be sales/purchases to bring it back to a market price level.

 

Now, unless you have some knowledge that is not available to the wider marketplace (unlikely) the current price will be the 'perfect' price for both buyers and sellers.

 

Given that in the case of Carnival shares you as an individual have access to an additional return on your investment (the OBC) which most owners of the shares (the institutions) do not, then you should be better off than the risk/reward equation would suggest.

 

.