TD #9 (Irene)

[vicocala]

Hurricane Irene Advisory Number 48

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

11 Am Ast Tue Aug 16 2005

 

...irene Continues Eastward...

 

At 11 Am Ast...1500z...the Center Of Hurricane Irene Was Located

Near Latitude 36.7 North... Longitude 62.4 West Or About 840

Miles...1350 Km... Southwest Of Cape Race Newfoundland.

 

Irene Is Moving Toward The East Near 10 Mph...17 Km/hr...and A

Gradual Turn Toward The East-northeast Is Expected During The Next

24 Hours.

 

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 85 Mph...140 Km/hr...with Higher

Gusts. A Weakening Trend Is Forecast To Begin During The Next 24

Hours.

 

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 25 Miles... 35 Km...

From The Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up

To 115 Miles...185 Km.

 

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 983 Mb...29.03 Inches.

 

Repeating The 11 Am Ast Position...36.7 N... 62.4 W. Movement

Toward...east Near 10 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds... 85 Mph.

Minimum Central Pressure... 983 Mb.

 

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At

5 Pm Ast.

 

Forecaster Pasch

[vicocala]

Hurricane Irene Advisory Number 50

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

11 Pm Ast Tue Aug 16 2005

 

...irene Begins To Weaken As It Heads Eastward...

 

At 11 Pm Ast...0300z...the Center Of Hurricane Irene Was Located

Near Latitude 36.6 North... Longitude 60.4 West Or About 790

Miles...1275 Km... South-southwest Of Cape Race Newfoundland.

 

Irene Is Moving Toward The East Near 9 Mph ...15 Km/hr...and And A

Gradual Turn Toward The East-northeast Is Expected Over The Next 24

Hours.

 

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 90 Mph...150 Km/hr...with Higher

Gusts. On The Saffir-simpson Hurricane Scale...irene Is Now A

Category One Hurricane Again. Some Weakening Is Forecast During

The Next 24 Hours.

 

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 25 Miles... 35 Km...

From The Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up

To 115 Miles...185 Km.

 

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 978 Mb...28.88 Inches.

 

Repeating The 11 Pm Ast Position...36.6 N... 60.4 W. Movement

Toward...east Near 9 Mph. Maximum Sustained

Winds... 90 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure... 978 Mb.

 

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National

Hurricane Center At 5 Am Ast.

 

Forecaster Franklin

[vicocala]

Hurricane Irene Advisory Number 51

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

5 Am Ast Wed Aug 17 2005

 

...irene Weakens As It Moves Slowly Eastward...

 

At 5 Am Ast...0900z...the Center Of Hurricane Irene Was Located Near

Latitude 36.6 North... Longitude 60.1 West Or About 785

Miles...1265 Km... South-southwest Of Cape Race Newfoundland.

 

Irene Is Moving Toward The East Near 8 Mph...13 Km/hr... But A

Gradual Turn Toward The East-northeast Or Northeast At A Faster

Forward Speed Is Expected To Occur Later Today.

 

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 85 Mph...140 Km/hr...with Higher

Gusts. Some Weakening Is Forecast During The Next 24 Hours.

 

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 30 Miles... 45 Km...

From The Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up

To 105 Miles...165 Km.

 

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 983 Mb...29.03 Inches.

 

Repeating The 5 Am Ast Position...36.6 N... 60.1 W. Movement

Toward...east Near 8 Mph. Maximum Sustained

Winds... 85 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure... 983 Mb.

 

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center

At 11 Am Ast.

 

Forecaster Stewart

[vicocala]

Hurricane Irene Advisory Number 52

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

11 Am Ast Wed Aug 17 2005

 

...irene Weakens To A Minimal Hurricane As It Moves Eastward...

 

At 11 Am Ast...1500z...the Center Of Hurricane Irene Was Located

Near Latitude 37.1 North...longitude 58.6 West Or About 720

Miles...1160 Km...south-southwest Of Cape Race Newfoundland.

 

Irene Is Moving Toward The East-northeast Near 12 Mph...19 Km/hr...

A Gradual Turn Toward The Northeast At A Faster Forward Speed Is

Expected To Occur Later Today.

 

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 75 Mph...120 Km/hr...with Higher

Gusts. Irene Is Forecast To Weaken To A Tropical Storm Within The

Next 12 To 24 Hours.

 

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 35 Miles... 55 Km...

From The Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up

To 140 Miles...220 Km.

 

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 987 Mb...29.15 Inches.

 

Repeating The 11 Am Ast Position...37.1 N... 58.6 W. Movement

Toward...east-northeast Near 12 Mph. Maximum Sustained

Winds... 75 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure... 987 Mb.

 

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National

Hurricane Center At 5 Pm Ast.

 

Forecaster Cobb/pasch

[vicocala]

Tropical Storm Irene Discussion Number 53

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

5 Pm Edt Wed Aug 17 2005

 

The Strong Westerly Shear Has Taken Its Toll On Irene And The

System Is No Longer A Hurricane. An Average Of Dvorak Numbers From

The Three Satellite Agencies Also Supports Lowering The Intensity

To 60 Kt For This Advisory.

 

The Initial Motion Estimate Has Picked Up To 050/18...indicating

That The Acceleration Of The System Continues. Water Vapor Imagery

Shows A Vigorous Shortwave Trough Extending From The Canadian

Maritimes To 28n68w That Is Moving Rapidly Toward Irene. As This

Shortwave Trough And Associated Surface Front Sweeps Over Irene

From The West...the Storm Is Expected To Accelerate Further

To The Northeast In Response To The Increasing Southwesterly

Steering Flow. Irene Is Forecast To Move Over Sharply Lower Ssts

Within 12 Hours...north Of 41n Latitude. The Cyclone Should Quickly

Decouple Over The Cooler Waters And Become An Extratropical Storm

By 24 Hours...or Sooner...as Indicated By The Fsu Cyclone Phase

Analysis Web Page. Beyond 24 Hours...extratropical Irene Should

Continue Accelerating In The Mid-latitude Westerlies And Race

Off To The Northeast Toward Greenland And Iceland. The Official

Track Is Virtually Identical To The Previous Forecast And Is Good

Agreement With The Consensus Of The Tightly Packed Nhc Model

Guidance.

[Sage]

Thanks again for the update. It looks as though Irene is calming down and out of here. I hope things stay quiet for your upcoming cruise.

[vicocala]

Thank you Sage, this one should be absorbed into a front sometime today and be gone, however TD 10 could be regenerating. Hopefully it will still be far enough to the east to avoid problems on Saturday. Sorry to hear you won't be able to make the get together.:(

 

TROPICAL STORM IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 55

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 AM AST THU AUG 18 2005

 

...IRENE ACCELERATING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE COLD WATERS OF

THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC...

 

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 41.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 51.0 WEST OR ABOUT 385

MILES... 625 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

 

IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 35 MPH...56 KM/HR. THIS

MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IS EXPECTED TO

CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST TODAY AS IRENE MOVES OVER COLDER

WATER AND LOSES ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

 

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES

...195 KM FROM THE CENTER.

 

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

 

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...41.3 N... 51.0 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 35 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 990 MB.

 

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

AT 11 AM AST.

 

FORECASTER STEWART

[vicocala]

Tropical Storm Irene Discussion Number 56

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

11 Am Edt Thu Aug 18 2005

 

Irene Has Accelerated Further And Is Now Moving Northeastward Near

40 Kt. Although It Is Difficult To Estimate The Intensity From

Satellite Pictures...such A Fast Forward Motion Would Support 50 Kt

Winds. Visible Satellite Imagery And Surface Observations Indicate

That The Storm Is Interacting With A Frontal Zone And Associated

Extratropical Low Just East Of Newfoundland...indicating That Irene

Is Transitioning Into An Extratropical Storm. Latest Global Model

Guidance Indicates That The Extratropical Version Of Irene Will

Soon Be Absorbed By The Larger Baroclinic Cyclone...and Spread A

Large Area Of Gale Force Winds Over A Portion Of The North

Atlantic.

 

This Is The Last Advisory Issued By The National Hurricane Center On

Irene. Future Information...if Any...on This System May Be Found

In High Seas Forecasts Issued By The Ocean Prediction

Center...under Awips Header Nfdhsfat1 And Wmo Header Fznt01 Kwbc.

 

Forecaster Pasch