TD #9 (Irene)

[vicocala]

So far it looks like it will curve and miss Florida but it is a long ways out. It will pay to keep an eye on.

 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

5 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2005

 

YES...INDEED WE HAVE ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE DEEP

TROPICS. SATELLITE IMAGES AND EARLIER QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT

THE AREA AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN

THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND

CAN BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE SYSTEM IS LARGE

WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE BANDS...EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND A BURST OF

CONVECTION NEAR THE ALLEGED CENTER. THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN ITS

EARLY FORMATIVE STAGE AND THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. IN

FACT...IT COULD REFORM ANYWHERE WITHIN THE LARGER CIRCULATION. THIS

MAKES TRACKING THE SYSTEM HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE

OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS

EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND

IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST

THROUGH 5 DAYS...GRADUALLY GAINING LATITUDE. NOW THAT WE HAVE A

DEPRESSION...THE 18Z GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WILL PROBABLY GIVE US BETTER

GUIDANCE TONIGHT.

 

THE INTENSITY FORECAST MIRRORS THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH BRINGS THE

DEPRESSION TO HURRICANE STATUS BY 72 HOURS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE

SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ALONG THE

FORECAST TRACK OF THE CYCLONE.

 

FORECASTER AVILA

[JimVrhovac]

I hope you are not hinting that I should sign the contract with the local disaster restoration company now.......

 

They still have not finished all the loose ends up from last years storms.

 

Jim & Ruth

[vicocala]

The scary thing is we won't even be moving into the normal meat of the season for a couple more weeks and this should be the ninth named storm of the year.

[vicocala]

current track is:

 

[Candy]

If Irene continues on it's projected path, it should skim the Bahamas on the 13th, so our Ft. Lauderdale departure might not be affected. We're going West, so we'll probably be OK.

 

Candy <-- is amazed at the weather this year!

[dippy]

If Irene continues on it's projected path, it should skim the Bahamas on the 13th, so our Ft. Lauderdale departure might not be affected. We're going West, so we'll probably be OK.

 

Candy <-- is amazed at the weather this year!

 

My fingers are crossed, even my toes:)

[vicocala]

Interesting that the picture I put of the track updates automatically. When I posted it, it was headed in the general direction of Florida/Carolinas now it appears to be recurving up thru the Atlantic or the northeast.

 

 

Hopefully it will blow itself out in the North Atlantic and won't mess up Candy's trip.

[Candy]

Whew! Let's hope it holds that curve and misses everybody, and blows itself out.

Interesting that the picture I put of the track updates automatically. When I posted it, it was headed in the general direction of Florida/Carolinas now it appears to be recurving up thru the Atlantic or the northeast.

 

Hopefully it will blow itself out in the North Atlantic and won't mess up Candy's trip.

 

Candy <-- doesn't wanna miss HMC

[vicocala]

Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 5

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

5 Pm Ast Fri Aug 05 2005

 

...tropical Depression Continues To Struggle For Survival...

 

At 5 Pm Ast...2100z...the Poorly Defined Center Of Tropical

Depression Nine Was Located Near Latitude 17.0 North...longitude

39.1 West Or About 990 Miles...1590 Km...west Of The Southernmost

Cape Verde Islands.

 

The Depression Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Near 16 Mph

...26 Km/hr...and This Motion Is Expected To Continue During The

Next 24 Hours.

 

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 30 Mph... 45 Km/hr...with Higher

Gusts.

 

Little Change In Strength Is Forecast During The Next 24 Hours.

 

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1010 Mb...29.83 Inches.

 

Repeating The 5 Pm Ast Position...17.0 N... 39.1 W. Movement

Toward...west-northwest Near 16 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds... 30

Mph. Minimum Central Pressure...1010 Mb.

 

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center At

11 Pm Ast.

[vicocala]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/061439.shtml?

[Candy]

Looks more like a strike on Bermuda than Bahamas on Saturday.

[Oceanwench]

I'm glad to see we won't be having problems with this one!

 

I remember Hurricane Irene in 1999, dumping lots of rain on South Florida. Took us by surprise, coming in the back door!

[vicocala]

I'm still hoping she will fall apart. It will be interesting to see the 5:00 update to see if she is splitting or holding together.

[esther e]

Hi Vic

Are you a meteorologist? I've seen posts from you before regarding storms. I sure hope we are spared this year; we've had our share!!!!!!:(

Esther

[vicocala]

esther,

 

 

Only an amateur one. LOL It comes from living in Florida for many years and watching the storms and reading the information from the National Hurricane Service. I love nature, both the tranquil and the violent (as long as no one is hurt).

 

I guess that is why I love the sea and enjoy studing the weather, even though I did not formally study it. Unless you call the Weather Channel a formal education. :eek:

[vicocala]

wind shear continues to blow tops off the center and a couple of the hurricane models are calling for the storm to fall apart. Let's keep our fingers crossed.

 

Hopefully it will be a while before the real Irene is born.

 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 10

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 PM AST SAT AUG 06 2005

 

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIGHTING A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...

 

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.3 WEST OR ABOUT

1230 MILES...1985 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

 

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT

IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17

KM/HR...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24

HOURS.

 

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

 

REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...18.9 N... 44.3 W. MOVEMENT

TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35

MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

 

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT

5 AM AST.

 

FORECASTER AVILA

[JimVrhovac]

Keep up the good forecasting as we were hit real bad last year and you advise will let us know when to put a deposit in with the contractor for future repairs............

 

Jim

[esther e]

esther,

 

 

Only an amateur one. LOL It comes from living in Florida for many years and watching the storms and reading the information from the National Hurricane Service. I love nature, both the tranquil and the violent (as long as no one is hurt).

 

I guess that is why I love the sea and enjoy studing the weather, even though I did not formally study it. Unless you call the Weather Channel a formal education. :eek:

 

We're out beachside and love to watch the clouds pretty much stop over the intracoastal (sometimes!!!!!) The sea breeze pushes them west. However, having said that, we have had rain for the past several days -- typical Fl. weather. Love it; it keeps our irrigation bills down.

 

I hope this year is a kinder and more gentle year!!!

Esther

[Sage]

Vicocala,

 

Thanks for keeping us up to date on the storms. We have had some nasty rain the past few days, but yesterday there was a gorgeous sunset. I hope you got to enjoy it as well. Let's all keep our fingers crossed the TD9 will stay away from where our CC cruisers are headed.

[KAJOKG]

Looks like this one is falling apart. Hope so. We had Frances and Jeanne make landfall right on top of us last year. We're bracing ourselves, but both Harvey and the TD curving out to sea is encouraging. We were blessed, and did not have damage to our home, but those around us and in neighboring towns were devasted. And many of the damages are still not repaired. There's no way to explain the experience unless one actually lives through a strong hurricane, and I am praying that we don't have to do that again.

[Oceanwench]

Looks like this one is falling apart. Hope so. We had Frances and Jeanne make landfall right on top of us last year. We're bracing ourselves, but both Harvey and the TD curving out to sea is encouraging. We were blessed, and did not have damage to our home, but those around us and in neighboring towns were devasted. And many of the damages are still not repaired. There's no way to explain the experience unless one actually lives through a strong hurricane, and I am praying that we don't have to do that again.

 

Katy,

 

You are so right ... even the photos or film footage can't convey what it is to live through a strong hurricane. And you, on the Treasure Coast, were landfall for both Jeanne and Frances!

 

Although we live about 20 miles south of you, we had far less damage than people on the TCoast. We were on the "good" side of the hurricanes. We had trees down, pool screens ripped, no electricity for several days ...

 

It amazes me how much destruction there was on the "bad" side. Friends of mine in Stuart and Port St. Lucie are still getting their homes back in shape.

 

We rode out Frances down in Broward County, and we never even lost electricity! But we stayed home when Jeanne hit -- I never want to hear that sound of the wind's fury again! :eek:

 

BTW ... looks like we have TS Irene now. No danger to us in the Sunshine State, fortunately!

[KAJOKG]

Katy,

 

You are so right ... even the photos or film footage can't convey what it is to live through a strong hurricane. And you, on the Treasure Coast, were landfall for both Jeanne and Frances!

Although we live about 20 miles south of you, we had far less damage than people on the TCoast. We were on the "good" side of the hurricanes. We had trees down, pool screens ripped, no electricity for several days ...

It amazes me how much destruction there was on the "bad" side. Friends of mine in Stuart and Port St. Lucie are still getting their homes back in shape.

We rode out Frances down in Broward County, and we never even lost electricity! But we stayed home when Jeanne hit -- I never want to hear that sound of the wind's fury again! :eek:

BTW ... looks like we have TS Irene now. No danger to us in the Sunshine State, fortunately!

The eye of both storms landed directly over my house. And you are absolutely correct....the north side of a hurricane is always the worst. I was shocked at the damage done up in Vero Beach!!!! My daughter and SIL live in the same community as us and they lost their pool enclosure....it was torn to shreds by Frances, and Jeanne finished the job. They STILL have not had it restored even though they contracted for the job last year! But the consider themselves lucky that's the only thing that happened. Were we really envious of all you folks who were "stuck" out to sea on a lovely cruise ship.

[vicocala]

The good news is the storm track carries it well east of Bermuda which is fantastic. Hopefully the NHC will be as good with the track of this one as they have been with earlier ones. They have done a great job tracking this year, but those of us in the southeast know these things can be unpredictable.

 

This is an interesting tidbit from the NHC discussion:

 

THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON CONTINUES ON ITS RECORD-SETTING PACE.

IRENE IS THE EARLIEST NINTH NAMED STORM ON RECORD...BREAKING THE

OLD MARK BY 13 DAYS. NORMALLY BY THIS DATE ONLY TWO NAMED STORMS

HAVE FORMED.

[lka1012]

Gee, the things I've missed hearing about since my TV flatlined and I chose NOT to replace it. (Other than Weather Channel, not much on these days)

[vicocala]

Tropical Storm Irene Discussion Number 13

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

5 Pm Edt Sun Aug 07 2005

 

The Deep Convection That Was Near The Center Of Irene This Morning

Has Dissipated Or Been Left Behind By Westerly Shear. The Initial

Intensity Will Be Held At 35 Kt For Now...but If Convection Does

Not Return The Circulation Will Gradually Spin Down. For The Next

Day Or Two Irene Will Be Moving Through An Environment

Characterized By Dry Air And Northwesterly Shear. The Cyclone May

Well Not Survive This Trip But If It Does...global Models Indicate

That A More Favorable Upper Pattern May Exist After 48 Hours.

Water Temperatures Will Also Be Gradually Increasing Along The Path

Of Irene So The Official Forecast Still Shows Some Strengthening

Late In The Forecast Period. This Intensity Forecast Is A Little

Below The Ships Guidance. The Gfdl Model Dissipates Irene Within

48 Hours.

 

The Initial Motion Is 300/9...and There Has Been No Significant

Change To The Track Forecast Reasoning. A Mid-level High Pressure

Ridge Currently Lies To The Northwest Of Irene. With The Exception

Of The Canadian Model...guidance Agrees That This Ridge Will Move

Westward And Weaken Over The Next 5 Days. Irene Is Expected To

Continue A General West-northwestward Track And Then Turn Northward

Into A Weakness To The East Of This Ridge. The Official Forecast Is

Adjusted Slightly Northward Of The Previous Advisory And Is Near

The Dynamical Model Consensus.

 

Forecaster Franklin