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Hurricane Katrina


vicocala

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gtalum-

The key word is "IF"..... The old adage about FLA weather about waiting 5 minutes and it'll change hopefully will not be the truth this time. Hopefully Katrina will behave herself and die an early death as she crosses the state.

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Alright am on Miami Beach and I can tell you its not raining yet, just a lot of wind and our office has suffered 2 mini power outages, but the offices across the street have lost electricity completely.

 

I can tell you the winds on the bay where picking up this morning before I left my home.

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gtalum-

The key word is "IF"..... The old adage about FLA weather about waiting 5 minutes and it'll change hopefully will not be the truth this time. Hopefully Katrina will behave herself and die an early death as she crosses the state.

 

Oh I know about Florida weather. OTOH, the NHC is usually pretty good (ie within 50 miles) up to about 3 days out. Beyond that it's definitely a crapshoot.

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Oh I know about Florida weather. OTOH, the NHC is usually pretty good (ie within 50 miles) up to about 3 days out. Beyond that it's definitely a crapshoot.

 

LOL...You betcha! For anyone that might be affected by this storm...Be safe this weekend!

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Thank you Vicocala, I hope you have a wonderful cruise to

 

2 days are better than none, and besides I am hoping to use my 50% cruise discount to go at the end of next month or early October, so I still have something to look forward to

 

Be safe

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Tropical Storm Katrina Discussion Number 8

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

11 Am Edt Thu Aug 25 2005

 

Katrina Has Become Better Organized Based On Doppler Radar Data And

Satellite Imagery. A Few Isolated Doppler Velocities As High As 68

Kt At 9000-10000 Ft Have Occasionally Been Observed...but The

Average Doppler Velocities Over A 1-nmi Stretch Have Been Around 55

Kt...which Equates To Roughly 50-kt Surface Winds. This Is

Consistent With A Blend Of Satellite Intensity Estimates Of 45 Kt

From Tafb And Afwa...and 55 Kt From Sab. A Noaa P-3 Reconnaissance

Aircraft With Sfmr Capability Is Currently Investigating Katrina...

And A Recent Report Indicates The Pressure Is Now Lower At 990 Mb.

However... This Pressure Drop Has Not Yet Translated Into A

Corresponding Increase In Winds.

 

The Initial Motion Estimate Is 270/5. 06z And 12z Upper-air Data

Indicate The Subtropical Ridge To The North Of Katrina Has

Continued To Shift Slowly Eastward Along 32n Latitude. This Has

Created A Deep-layer Easterly Steering Current...albeit A Weak One.

The Nhc Model Guidance Is In Fairly Good Agreement On Katrina

Moving Generally Westward Across The Southern Florida Peninsula For

The Next 48 Hours Or So. After That...however...the Models Continue

To Diverge Significantly On When And Where The Turn To The North

Toward The Florida Panhandle Or Northwest Florida Is Expected To

Occur. The Ukmet Is The Easternmost And Fastest Model And Brings

Katrina Across Northeast Florida...whereas The Gfdl Is The

Westernmost Model And Takes The Cyclone Across The Western Florida

Panhandle. The Rest Of The Models Are Evenly Distributed Between

These Solutions. The Official Forecast Track Is Similar To The

Previous Track And Is Close To The Nhc Model Consensus After 48

Hours. The Gfdl Model Has Been Consistently Forecasting A

Southwestward Motion Around The Southern End Of Florida For The

Past 24 Hours. While This Track Is Certainly Possible To Some

Degree...my Current Thinking Is That The Gfdl Is Taking Katrina Too

Far South Through The Florida Keys As A Major Hurricane.

 

The Aforementioned Upper-air Data Indicate Mid-level Dry Air Has

Gradually Been Moving Southward Across The Florida Peninsula And

Katrina Has Been Moving Along The Northern Edge Of A Sharp Moisture

Gradient. This Has Resulted In Occasional Intrusions Of Dry Air

Into The Inner Core And Has Caused The Convection To Weaken.

However...over The Past Few Hours...radar Data From Melbourne And

Miami Indicate Numerous Small Bands Of Convection Are Developing In

The Large Dry Slot To The North...and A Banding Eye Feature Has

Been Trying To Develop. Given The Slow Forward Speed Over The Very

Warm Gulfstream And The Favorable Outflow Pattern...katrina Could

Still Possibly Reach Category One Hurricane Strength Prior To

Landfall. Katrina Will Weaken As It Moves Over South Florida...and

Then Re-strengthening Is Expected Once It Moves Over The Warm Gulf

Of Mexico Where The Vertical Shear Is Forecast To Be Quite Low. It

Should Be Noted That Katrina Is Not Expected To Weaken Prior To

Landfall...which Could Be Implied By The Official Intensity

Forecast. In Fact...katrina Will Probably Continue To Strengthen

Right Up Until Landfall Occurs In The Florida Panhandle.

 

Forecaster Stewart

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.......

 

IT'S RAINING !!! CONSTANT RAIN and WINDY.... VERY WINDY....

 

Not a cold wind, a very nice comfortable wind... The rain isn't coming down hard, just straight and continuous.

 

So, right now, as crazy as it sounds, its just like another rainy, windy day in South Florida.....

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Our cruise today on the Carnival Imagination was cancelled/changed due to Tropical Storm Katrina. We were scheduled for a 4 night cruise Thursday - Monday.

 

A Carnival rep called my cell phone last night around 8:00 p.m. and told me my cruise had been changed. I said, "what do you mean changed"? They said my cruise was now a 2 day cruise starting on Saturday and they would give me a 50% refund. Basically I said no, please cancel it. I was told I would get a 100% refund. No problem once I asked. We'll see.

 

Carnival didn't actually cancel, the Port of Miami (or whatever it is called) closed, so they had no choice. I did call Carnival and asked if I could just move the booking at the same rate and they said no. That was a bit disappointing at the time as I had received a good rate and now I was going to have to pay the "going" rate.

 

Called the travel agent this morning and she got us on the September 8 cruise for even less money! It helps that we live in Ft Myers.

 

We had driven over yesterday afternoon to Miami and were already checked into the Doubletree. Went shopping and for dinner at Bayside and were headed back to the hotel when they called.

 

We ended up deciding to come back home last night since traffic would be much easier at night than this morning. It was tough leaving a very nice hotel room that was paid for. But it was the right choice to drive back last night. The toughest part was paying $20 for parking that we used for a total of 30 minutes. Oh well, at least we didn't have to fly in, but we did blow over $125 on hotel, gas and food.

 

I have lived in South Florida for 20 years and this is the first time I've had any trip cancelled because of the weather. Not a bad track record so I can't really be mad about this one.

 

Observations:

Kudos to carnival - they called me pretty much as soon as they knew. That was great! They could have waited until the next day or do what the airlines have been doing lately and not even call.

Make sure they have your cell phone as the contact number. We wouldn't have known otherwise until we showed up at the pier. The weather wasn't really bad in Miami so I thought it was a go.

Disappointed that they didn't let me roll over my cruise. But they actually lost money on this one because my new cruise was cheaper.

 

Enjoy,

Duane

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Posted on Thu, Aug. 25, 2005

 

 

 

M O R E N E W S F R O M

• US Coast Guard

• US News

 

 

 

 

Cruise ships rerouted

 

BY PATRICK DANNER AND AMY MARTINEZ

 

pdanner@herald.com

 

 

Port Everglades and Port of Miami closed ll inbound ship traffic beginning at 8 p.m. Wednesday evening. The U.S. Coast Guard, which made the announcement at 5:30 p.m., closed Miami River, Port of Palm Beach, and the Port of Fort Pierce and Indian River terminal.

 

The closure of Port Everglades has forced Royal Caribbean International to reroute its Empress of the Seas cruise ship, which was scheduled to arrive this morning, to the Port of Tampa.

 

The 1,600-passenger also was scheduled to depart at 5 p.m. Thursday on another trip. Those passengers will be bused from Port Everglades to Port of Tampa. The ship is scheduled to return on Monday to Port Everglades. The storm will cause the ship to skip its regularly scheduled stop in Key West.

 

Meanwhile, Royal Caribbean's Majesty of the Seas will return to Port of Miami on Saturday to avoid the storm. It was scheduled to return on Friday.

 

Passengers who were scheduled to depart on Majesty of the Seas on Friday for a three-night cruise will have their trip shortened to two nights. Passengers have the option of canceling or receiving a 50 percent refund, Royal Caribbean said in a statement.

 

Company spokeswoman Leslie Katz said updates can be obtained by clicking on the ''tropical weather update'' link at the website royalcaribbean.com.

 

The Miami port's closure has forced Carnival Cruise Lines to reroute two ships affecting nearly 5,000 passengers.

 

The Imagination, which was due to finish a five-day cruise today, will be kept at sea south of Key West and will return to Miami on Saturday. The Imagination has 2,450 passengers aboard.

 

A four-day cruise on the Imagination, originally set to depart today from Miami, will be shortened to a two-day cruise beginning Saturday. ''We are offering some incentives for people if they decide to take the cruise,'' Carnival spokeswoman Jennifer de la Cruz said. The incentives include a 50 percent refund and a 50 percent discount off a future three- or four-day cruise.

 

The Fascination, which was scheduled to return to Miami from a four-day cruise Friday morning, will return Saturday. About 2,460 passengers are aboard. The next cruise, which would have left Friday afternoon for a three-day voyage to the Bahamas, is being shortened to a two-day cruise leaving Saturday. Those passengers will receive a 35 percent refund and a 50 percent discount off a future three-day cruise.

 

Norwegian Cruise Line has rerouted a New York-based ship that left Miami on Wednesday to avoid the storm. Rather than head for Great Stirrup Cay, a privately owned island, the Dawn was sent to Nassau, where it will stay overnight and depart Friday. The Dawn will arrive in New York on Sunday as planned. About 2,200 people are aboard.

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Hey Gary,

 

I'm probably right down the street from you (Federal Hwy & McNab) and we just/felt got a huge gust of wind that made a loud noise throughout the building. I think it's about to hit and I'm still at work... I won't say which company I work for, but everyone else in this 12 story building has gone home except us....

 

We're here because of "Needs of the Business".... even through the windows are now rattling and the buidling is doing a whole lotta shaking!!!

 

Anyways, good luck everyone... And to Duanerice1, I'm really sorry about your cruise being cancelled. You're very lucky about getting a cheaper price later on but more important, you're lucky that you're flexible enough to reschedule at such short notice....

 

I leave next Friday on the Fascination so all this should be well gone by then but if another one is behind Katrina, I just hope that my ship can leave the port...

 

Was just about to click the submit reply button when the computer also did a shake, rattle and roll.... Later all....

 

Elaine :)

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Bulletin

Tropical Storm Katrina Intermediate Advisory Number 8b

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

3 Pm Edt Thu Aug 25 2005

 

...katrina Just Below Hurricane Strength As It Moves Slowly

Westward Across The Florida Straits Toward Southeast Florida...

...tropical Storm Force Winds Nearing The Florida Coast...

 

A Hurricane Warning Remains In Effect For The Southeast Florida

Coast From Vero Beach Southward To Florida City...including Lake

Okeechobee. A Hurricane Warning Means That Hurricane Conditions

Are Expected Within The Warning Area Within The Next 24 Hours.

Preparations To Protect Life And Property Should Be Rushed To

Completion.

 

A Tropical Storm Warning Remains In Effect For Grand Bahama

Island...bimini...and The Berry Islands In The Northwest Bahamas.

The Warning Has Been Discontinued For The Remainder Of The

Northwest Bahamas. The Warning Will Likely Be Discontinued Later

Today Or This Evening.

 

A Tropical Storm Watch Remains In Effect For The East-central

Florida Coast From North Of Vero Beach Northward To Titusville

...including All Of Merritt Island...and For The Middle And Upper

Florida Keys From The West End Of The Seven Mile Bridge Northward To

South Of Florida City. A Tropical Storm Watch Is Also In Effect For

The Florida West Coast From Florida City To Englewood...including

Florida Bay. A Tropical Storm Watch Means That Tropical Storm

Conditions Are Possible Within The Watch Area...generally Within

36 Hours.

 

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible

Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued

By Your Local Weather Office.

 

At 3 Pm Edt...1900z...reports From Noaa Doppler Radars And A Noaa

Reconnaissance Aircraft Indicate The Center Of Tropical Storm

Katrina Was Located Near Latitude 26.2 North... Longitude 79.6 West

...or About 35 Miles East-northeast Of Fort Lauderdale Florida And

About 35 Miles East-southeast Of Boca Raton Florida.

 

Katrina Is Moving Toward The West Near 6 Mph. This General Motion

Is Expected To Continue With A Slight Decrease In Forward Speed

During The Next 24 Hours. On This Track... The Center Should Be

Near Or Over The Southeast Florida Coast Later Tonight Or Early

Friday Morning.

 

Reports From A Noaa Reconnaissance Aircraft And Noaa Doppler Radars

Indicate Maximum Sustained Winds Have Increased To Near 70 Mph...

With Higher Gusts. Additional Strengthening Is Expected Today And

Tonight...and Katrina Could Still Become A Category One Hurricane

Before The Center Reaches The Southeastern Coast Of Florida.

 

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 80 Miles

...110 Km From The Center. Wind Gusts To 37 Mph Have Recently Been

Reported Along The Immediate Coastal Areas Of Palm Beach And

Broward County Florida.

 

The Minimum Central Pressure Recently Reported By A Noaa

Reconnaissance Aircraft Was 990 Mb...29.23 Inches.

 

Storm Surge Flooding Of 2 To 4 Feet Above Normal Tide Levels...

Along With Large And Dangerous Battering Waves...can Be Expected

Near And To The North Of Where The Center Makes Landfall In Florida.

Storm Surge Flooding Of 2 To 4 Feet Above Normal Tide Levels...

Along With Large And Dangerous Battering Waves...can Be Also

Expected In Areas Of Onshore Winds In The Bahamas. Storm Surge

Values Will Gradually Decrease In The Bahamas Later Today.

 

Due To Its Slow Forward Speed...katrina Is Expected To Produce A

Significant Heavy Rainfall Event Over South Florida...and The

Central And Northwest Bahamas. Total Rainfall Accumulations Of 6 To

10 Inches With Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 15 Inches Are Possible.

 

Isolated Tornadoes Will Also Be Possible Over Southern Florida And

The Florida Keys.

 

Repeating The 3 Pm Edt Position...26.2 N... 79.6 W. Movement

Toward...west Near 6 Mph. Maximum Sustained

Winds... 70 Mph. Minimum Central Pressure... 990 Mb.

 

The Next Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane Center

At 5 Pm Edt.

 

Forecaster Stewart

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Its really bad now and the worse isn't even here yet. The lights in the building have been flickering on/off for the past 2 hours or so. The wind outside is now really mean and its raining hard. Car alarms have gone off and are making lots of noise....

 

The trees are blowing, the traffic lights swaying and lots of down branches on Federal Hwy.

 

I get to leave at 4:00 and head North on I95... I'm gonna drive slow and careful and I'll update you when I get home on what I saw/how it is and how it felt to be out in Katrina.

 

Trust me guys, this is not by choice, my choice would be to be at home right now but hey, this job pays for my cruises!!!

 

 

Elaine :)

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4th hurricane of the season...

HURRICANE KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

335 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005

 

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTS AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATES

THAT TROPICAL STORM KATRINA HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A HURRICANE...

 

SHORTLY BEFORE 330 PM EDT...REPORTS FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE

AIRCRAFT AND NOAA DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM MIAMI INDICATE MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS INCREASED TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE.

 

DATA FROM THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER ONBOARD THE

NOAA AIRCRAFT MEASURED HURRICANE-FORCE SURFACE WINDS...WHICH IS

SUPPORTED BY NOAA DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITY DATA FROM WFO MIAMI.

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Its really bad now and the worse isn't even here yet. The lights in the building have been flickering on/off for the past 2 hours or so. The wind outside is now really mean and its raining hard. Car alarms have gone off and are making lots of noise....

 

The trees are blowing, the traffic lights swaying and lots of down branches on Federal Hwy.

 

I get to leave at 4:00 and head North on I95... I'm gonna drive slow and careful and I'll update you when I get home on what I saw/how it is and how it felt to be out in Katrina.

 

Trust me guys, this is not by choice, my choice would be to be at home right now but hey, this job pays for my cruises!!!

 

 

Elaine :)

 

Be careful...

 

I live on Miami Beach and its getting worse every minute!!!

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Hurricane Katrina Discussion Number 9

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

5 Pm Edt Thu Aug 25 2005

 

Katrina Is Now A Hurricane Based On Noaa Recon Sfmr Reports Of

Surface Winds To 64 Kt Just Northwest Of The Center. These Winds

Are Supported By Noaa-miami Doppler Radar Velocities Of 90 Kt At

3000 Ft...which Equates To About 67 Kt Surface Winds. The Most

Recent Noaa Recon Pressure While Composing This Discussion Has

Fallen 2 Mb In The Past Hour To 985 Mb.

 

The Initial Motion Estimate Is 265/5. 12z And 18z Upper-air Data

Indicate The Subtropical Ridge To The North Of Katrina Has Changed

Little While An Inverted Mid- To Upper-level Trough Has Developed

Northward From The Caribbean Sea To Katrina. The Trough Is Expected

To Induce A Slight South Of Due West Motion For The Next 12 Hours

Or So. Afterwards...the Ridge To The North Is Expected To Slowly

Weaken And Erode On The West Side As A Shortwave Trough Over The

Central U.s. Digs Southeastward Toward The Northern Gulf Of Mexico.

This Slow Evolving Pattern Is Foecast To Gradually Induce A Slow

Northwest And Then Northward Motion After 48 Hours. The Nhc Model

Guidance Is In Good Agreement On The Westward Motion For The Next

36 Hours...but Then Diverges Significantly After That. The Gfs Has

Been The Most Consistent/persistent Model In Taking Katrina Slowly

Northeastward After 72 Hours Across Northwest Florida...whereas The

Gfdl...gfdn...and Ukmet Models Have Now Flip-flopped Widely To The

West And Bring Katrina Inland Between Mobile Alabama And Grand Isle

Louisiana. The Gfdl And Gfdn Models Have Been Given Less Weight

Given Their Persistent Much Faster Westward Motion The Past 24

Hours...which Has Not Materialized. The Official Forecast Track Is

Similar To The Previous Track And Is To The Right Of The Nhc Model

Consensus.

 

There Is Still A Short Window Of Opportunity For Katrina To

Strengthen To Around 70 Kt Before Landfall Occurs. After Landfall

...steady Weakening Is Expected Until The Hurricane Emerges Off The

Southwest Florida Coast In About 30 Hours. Once Katrina Moves Over

The Warm Gulf Of Mexico Where The Vertical Shear Is Expected To Be

Low...restrengthening Into A Hurricane Seems Likely. It Should Be

Emphasized That Katrina Is Not Forecast To Weaken Prior To Landfall

...which Could Be Implied By The Official Intensity Forecast. In

Contrast...katrina Is Expected To Strengthen To 90 Kt Before

Landfall Occurs In The Florida Panhandle. This Is Consistent With

The Ships Intensity Model And The Trend In The Gfdl Model...

Although The Latter Model Makes Katrina A 118-kt Category 4 Storm.

 

Forecaster Stewart

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Just checking in..

 

Power went out for a while am sure its going to go off again.. :eek:

 

Its insane outside.. I've never seen such a thing.It may be a cat. 1 Hurricane but it sure doesnt act like one. :o

 

I've seen trees down, palm trees down, trees bent, street signs down, light poles moving w/ the wind. The water in the bay is at seawall level with waves coming in , in all directions.. :eek:

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Hurricane Katrina Intermediate Advisory Number 9a

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

7 Pm Edt Thu Aug 25 2005

 

...eye Of Katrina Currently Making Landfall Between Hallandale Beach

And North Miami Beach With 80 Mph Winds...port Everglades Just

Reported Gusts To 92 Mph Winds...

 

A Hurricane Warning Remains In Effect For The Southeast Florida

Coast From Jupiter Inlet Southward To Florida City...including Lake

Okeechobee. Preparations To Protect Life And Property Should Have

Been Completed.

 

A Tropical Storm Warning Has Been Issued For All Of The Florida Keys

And Florida Bay From Key West Northward. A Tropical Storm Warning

Is Also In Effect Along The Gulf Coast Of Florida From Longboat Key

South And Eastward To South Of Florida City. A Tropical Storm

Warning Remains In Effect Along The Florida East Coast From North

Of Jupiter Inlet To Vero Beach.

 

At 7 Pm Edt...2300z...the Tropical Storm Warning For Grand Bahama

Island...bimini...and The Berry Islands In The Northwest Bahamas

Has Been Discontinued.

 

A Tropical Storm Watch Is In Effect For Portions The Florida West

Coast From North Of Longboat Key To Anclote Key And For The

East-central Florida Coast From North Of Vero Beach To Titusville

...including All Of Merritt Island. A Tropical Storm Watch Means

That Tropical Storm Conditions Are Possible Within The Watch

Area...generally Within 36 Hours.

 

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...including Possible

Inland Watches And Warnings...please Monitor Products Issued

By Your Local Weather Office.

 

At 7 Pm Edt...2300z...the Eye Of Hurricane Katrina Was Located

Near Latitude 25.9 North...longitude 80.1 West. This Position Is On

The Coast Between Hallandale Beach And North Miami Beach.

 

Katrina Is Moving Toward The West Near 6 Mph And This General Motion

Is Expected To Continue During The Next 24 Hours. On This Track...

The Center Should Move Farther Inland Along South Florida Tonight

And Friday.

 

Latest Report From A Noaa Reconnaissance Aircraft And The Miami Noaa

Doppler Radar Indicate Maximum Sustained Winds Are 80 Mph... With

Higher Gusts. Katrina Is A Category One Hurricane On The

Saffir-simpson Scale. Stronger Winds...especially In Gusts...are

Likely On High Rising Buildings. A Gradual Weakening Is Expected As

Katrina Continues To Move Inland Across South Florida And The

Everglades Tonight And Friday.

 

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 15 Miles From The

Center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up

To 80 Miles.

 

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 985 Mb...29.09 Inches.

 

Storm Surge Flooding Of 2 To 4 Feet Above Normal Tide Levels...

Along With Large And Dangerous Battering Waves...can Be Expected

Near And To The North Of The Landfall Point.

 

Due To Its Slow Forward Speed...katrina Is Expected To Produce A

Significant Heavy Rainfall Event Over South Florida...and The

Central And Northwest Bahamas. Total Rainfall Accumulations Of 6 To

10 Inches With Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 15 Inches Are Possible.

 

Isolated Tornadoes Will Also Be Possible Over Southern Florida And

The Florida Keys.

 

Repeating The 7 Pm Edt Position...25.9 N... 80.1 W. Movement

Toward...west Near 6 Mph. Maximum Sustained Winds... 80 Mph.

Minimum Central Pressure... 985 Mb.

 

An Intermediate Advisory Will Be Issued By The National Hurricane

Center At 9 Pm Edt Followed By The Next Complete Advisory At 11 Pm

Edt.

 

Forecaster Avila

 

$$

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