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Hurricane Wilma

TVMet

By TVMet,
in Carnival Cruise Lines

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TVMet

TVMet

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Computer models have shown (for 24 hours) a hit on SW Florida this weekend. The models are coming into good agreement. Wilma will be moving very fast as it approaching SW FL as strong upper level winds push it into the Atlantic off the East Coast of FL by Sunday.

 

The latest advisory...

 

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM WILMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

8 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005

 

...WILMA BEGINS TO DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD...

 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE

HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR

THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

 

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN INTENSE HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN

CARIBBEAN SEA. ALL INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE YUCATAN

PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD

MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

 

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

 

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM WILMA WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.2 WEST OR ABOUT 245 MILES

...400 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 210 MILES...

335 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA

/HONDURAS BORDER.

 

WILMA HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL

HOURS...AND A SLOW MOTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS

EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN

WEAK AND ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. WILMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY.

 

REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY 42057 INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE

WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA ARE EXPANDING...AND NOW EXTEND OUTWARD

UP TO 125 MILES ...200 KM FROM THE CENTER.

 

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

 

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES

OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...HAITI...AND SOUTHEASTERN

CUBA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL

ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10

INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER HONDURAS.

 

Forecast track...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT24/refresh/AL2405W5+gif/120348W_sm.gif

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blyle

blyle

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I would not now buy travel Ins unless you know exactly what is will cover. SOme coverage is dependent on when you bought your policy so be careful and know your product. The companies are too smart to cover you after the fact! Still check your policy. As for cancellation, again you have to prove it was due to weather and not your fear of going.

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blyle

blyle

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You are usually covered if the cruise is cancelled due to weather but then you will get a refund from the cruiseline and also if your flight is cancelled. In our case our flight was on the day the airport closed for Rita and we had to prove that fact. WE were not covered if we chose not to go. It is a slippery slope so call and know exactly what is covered. Give them hypothetical what ifs to know for sure. If you cancel on your own you will be charged the penalty which is usually 100% and it is not recoverable. So as I said having been through this I already knew what to do when they cancelled our flight. I could get through easily before the storm but after it was a nightmare on the phone. So I suggest you do your homework now!

 

Not sure if I'm doing this right but have a question. We're scheduled for the Glory leaving Port Canaveral on Sat. 10/22. Problem is we live in Palm Harbor FL (Clearwater/Tampa area). We do have Berkeley travel insurance. What happens if your city is expecting a storm hit - say Monday or Tuesday of the following week, if we cancel do we have any protection? Has anyone had a similar experience?
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TVMet

TVMet

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BULLETIN

HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 12

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

11 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005

 

...WILMA BECOMES THE 12TH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON AS IT HEADS

NORTHWESTWARD...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER TODAY...

 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE

HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR

THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

 

WILMA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN

CARIBBEAN SEA. ALL INTERESTS IN WESTERN CUBA...THE YUCATAN

PENINSULA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD

CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF WILMA.

 

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE

INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED

BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

 

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 80.6 WEST OR ABOUT 195

MILES... 320 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 200

MILES... 325 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE

NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

 

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR... AND

THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24

HOURS...AND WILMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE

DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

 

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...

FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP

TO 120 MILES...195 KM.

 

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES.

 

Latest Forecast Track...

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT24/refresh/AL2405W5+gif/144122W_sm.gif

 

Latest Satellite...

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg

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Kahhli

Kahhli

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Hey folks

 

So far no new changes since I posted yesterday.

 

For those who want the web addy to check the updates here it is:

 

http://www.carnival.com/CMS/static_templates/weather_update.aspx

 

Im getting very nervous myself here about next Mondays cruise.

I did get the travel insurance but opted to only cover 1000 dollars of the roughly 1500 dollar cost.

At the time I went with the odds of there not being a Hurricane , and figured I would take the 500 dollar hit.

Welll It still may not happen but at least 2/3 is covered.

 

I think I better go look at the fine print now lol.

I got the trip insurance thru Insuremytrip.com and chose the CSA Freestyle package , just in case anyone wants to check it out.

Cheaper than the insurance thru Carnival and you can tailor it more to your needs/wants.

 

Hang in there cruisers , think SUN !!! :D

 

Kahhli

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andy1

andy1

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Can't wait to hear reviews of this cruise... This cruise departed Tampa on 10/15 for Grand Cayman, then to Cozumel...back to Tampa this Thursday at 8am.

 

It is JUST AHEAD of the path of WILMA... ...

 

I just read in a previous post that Carnival changed Grand Cayman to Costa Maya...

 

Andy1

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wendy123

wendy123

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I live in Southwest Florida and I am closely watching the storm. :eek: My cruise is set for the 30th.

So far this season we have been spared… not like the four hurricanes in a row last year, Charley being the largest. I hope Wilma will spare us all.

I have been on Carnival during a hurricane and re-routed at the end of our trip. The Carnival staff were very gracious and did their best to meet everyone’s needs. They organized extra activities and gave out great prizes to the passengers. Honestly, you were too busy with all the fun stuff that you forgot all about the hurricane. Ok maybe….. the boat did rock a bit but we all continued to eat and drink and never got sick. My advice if your boat starts rocking continue eating and drinking:rolleyes: and enjoy your cruise.

Best wishes to all!

PS I agree with those that started I get all my hurricane info for www.noaa.com

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TVMet

TVMet

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Wilma could still miss Florida entirely. Almost half of the cone is south of the keys. Remember, watch the cone, not the line.

 

Remember, the cone is not a forecast. The cone is just the average error over the last 10 years. This includes hard to predict storms that move slow or do loops (Jeanne 2004) and easy to predict storms (Katrina 2005) that hit pretty much where they are supposed too. I agree, one should never focus directly on the center line. But, just remember the cone is not a forecast it is the long-term average error.

 

In this case, I've looked at over a dozen hurricane/global models from 8 am this morning. All of the models are clustered on a hit in SW Florida. The UK model still says Tampa. The US Global model says the Keys. The European says it will stall in the Gulf and then sweep through SW Florida late Sunday. Most of the hurricane models point to the area between Sarasota and Naples late Saturday or early Sunday. I think the official forecast from NHC has a pretty good handle on things.

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gtalum

gtalum

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Remember, the cone is not a forecast. The cone is just the average error over the last 10 years. This includes hard to predict storms that move slow or do loops (Jeanne 2004) and easy to predict storms (Katrina 2005) that hit pretty much where they are supposed too. I agree, one should never focus directly on the center line. But, just remember the cone is not a forecast it is the long-term average error.

 

I defer to your professional opinion as a professional met. :) (by the way do you post over at Storm2k? It's a great board for meteorology professionals, amateurs, and laymen who are interested in weather.)

 

However, I know from experience that it's dangerous to focus on the line. Perfect example: hurricane Charley last year. It came ashore 100+ miles form the NHC forecast landfall point, but was well within the cone. This storm seems to be erratic and approaching at an angle similar (though not the same) as Charley, making it difficult to predict the precise landfall point.

 

Personally I only look at "the line" once we're inside the 3 day window, as they seem to be much more accurate in that timeframe.

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susibell2

susibell2

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We are supposed to be leaving on the Glory for the western carribbean on Sat,though things don't look so good. Looks like Wilma's going to make a mess of things. We are leaving out of Port Canaveral. Last year we were on RCI when hurricane Jeanne hit,we got an extra 2 days at sea and an extra stop. I guess this time we might not make out so well.

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susibell2

susibell2

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Not sure if I'm doing this right but have a question. We're scheduled for the Glory leaving Port Canaveral on Sat. 10/22. Problem is we live in Palm Harbor FL (Clearwater/Tampa area). We do have Berkeley travel insurance. What happens if your city is expecting a storm hit - say Monday or Tuesday of the following week, if we cancel do we have any protection? Has anyone had a similar experience?

We are also obn the glory leaving(hopefully) Sat. We live in Central Fl and are worried also about where the storm is going to hit if everyone will be ok here..etclot's to worry about...

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rgreenpc

rgreenpc

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Well I live in the Tampa area... so I feel for the people near Naples who are watching WILMA like a hawk... but I am so worried about the hurricane that its taking away from me being able to enjoy the days before my wedding....

 

 

DAMN YOU WILMA... GO HOME TO FRED!

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KShea

KShea

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Well I live in the Tampa area... so I feel for the people near Naples who are watching WILMA like a hawk... but I am so worried about the hurricane that its taking away from me being able to enjoy the days before my wedding....

 

 

 

I hope all things work out of you as you wish.....

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silvermoon2

silvermoon2

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At 2 Am Edt...0600z...the Center Of Hurricane Wilma Was Located Near

Latitude 17.0 North...longitude 82.2 West Or About 170 Miles...

270 Km...south-southwest Of Grand Cayman And About 400 Miles...640

Km...southeast Of Cozumel Mexico.

 

Wilma Is Moving Toward The West-northwest Near 8 Mph...13 Km/hr. A

Turn Toward The Northwest Is Expected During The Next 24 Hours.

 

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 150 Mph...240 Km/hr...with Higher

Gusts. Wilma Is An Extremely Dangerous Category four Hurricane On

The Saffir-simpson Scale. The Hurricane Could Become A Category

Five Hurricane Today.

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