Any other storms out there after Wilma?

[KShea]

...just wondering if there are any other storms lurking out there after Wilma?

[GoinCruisin]

Yup! There is another disturbance that could be Alpha.. looks like it could affect the Eastern Carib...I'm not sure they have plotted anything out as of yet, but it could become TS Alpha within a few days.

[CoachTerry14]

[GoinCruisin]

Here is the discussion on the various tropical waves out there now...

 

 

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W SOUTH OF 20N

MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS JUST WEST OF

THE ISLANDS FROM 12N...JUST CLIPPING GRENADA...TO 15N BETWEEN

61W AND 65W. OTHER CLUSTERS AND CELLS OF SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WATERS AND ISLANDS FROM 15N NORTH TO 20N

BETWEEN 60W AND 65W. A TROUGH RUNS FROM A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL

LOW CENTER IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE

EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL

DRY AIR SURROUNDS THIS LOW CENTER FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN 65W AND

74W. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT A

SURFACE CIRCULATION COULD BE FORMING...AND SHOWER ACTIVITY

REMAINS FAIRLY CONCENTRATED NEAR THE DEVELOPING CIRCULATION

CENTER. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL

DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

 

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W SOUTH

OF 16N MOVING WEST 15 KT. IT BARELY SHOWS UP IN THE VISIBLE

SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG

THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W IN THE ITCZ.

 

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W SOUTH OF 19N

MOVING WEST 15 KT. THE MOST PRONOUNCED PART OF THE WAVE IS

ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH N OF PUERTO RICO WHICH HAS

SPLIT OFF FROM THE MAIN AXIS. IT IS ALONG 20N69W 24N66W 26N61W

MOVING NORTHWEST. THIS WAVE IS NOT ASSOCIATED WITH ANY DEEP

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. IT IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF MIDDLE TO

UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.

 

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W SOUTH OF

15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN BROAD

SOUTHERLY SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL FLOW FEEDING INTO HURRICANE WILMA

AND THUS IT DOES NOT HAVE A DISTINGUISHABLE SIGNATURE. LINES OF

SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING WEST OF 78W...WITH SOME SHOWERS

DYING AND OTHER ONES REPLACING THEM. THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE

MORE RELATED TO WILMA THAN TO THIS WAVE.

 

...ITCZ...

 

ITCZ 8N11W 10N34W 10N38W 9N44W 10N50W 13N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE

SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN

30W AND 40W...AND FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W. ISOLATED

TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/LOCALLY STRONG SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 TO 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF AXIS

BETWEEN 40W AND 54W.

 

...DISCUSSION...

 

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AWAY FROM HURRICANE WILMA...

LINES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF WILMA

ARE SPIRALING IN A CYCLONIC SENSE TOWARD THE WILMA'S CENTER AND

THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. DENSE MULTILAYERED OVERCAST CLOUDINESS

COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST-AND EAST OF 30N82W

26N90W 20N91W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS WEST OF THIS

30N82W 20N91W LINE. THIS DRY AIR IS BEING BROUGHT ACROSS THE

WESTERN GULF BY NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A MIDDLE

TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER IN CENTRAL MEXICO. ALL THE SHOWERS

AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING WILMA WILL BE SPREADING INTO THE

SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE REST OF THE DAY

TODAY AND DURING THE WEEKEND. THE 3 TO 5 DAY FORECAST PLACES THE

EYE OF WILMA SOMEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST

DURING THE LATE MORNING ON MONDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS BEING

SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH CURRENTLY IS

MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS TO WESTERN

LOUISIANA TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES

THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS TO THE TEXAS/

MEXICO BORDER BETWEEN LAREDO AND EAGLE PASS.

 

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AWAY FROM HURRICANE WILMA...

THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W/71W IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF

MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. A TROPICAL WAVE IS

ALONG 62W SOUTH OF 20N...MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF AN ALREADY-

EXISTING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IN NORTHWESTERN

VENEZUELA NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN

CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR SURROUNDS THIS

LOW CENTER FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN 65W AND 74W. SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AROUND THE 62W TROPICAL WAVE...WHICH MAY

DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF

DAYS.

 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AWAY FROM HURRICANE WILMA

COVERS

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 65W...AND IT SPILLS INTO

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ON TOP OF THE AREA THROUGH WHICH THE 70W/71W

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING. A GRADUAL SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST

ORIENTED

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 26N62W 29N54W BEYOND 32N47W. AN UPPER

LEVEL RIDGE RUNS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF

SOUTH AMERICA FROM 6N57W TO 11N59W AND THEN TO 16N59W. UPPER

LEVEL FLOW NORTHWESTERLY WINDS STREAM INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS

FROM 7N TO 20N BETWEEN 35W AND 59W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC

CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 22N40W...SURROUNDED BY MUCH MIDDLE TO

UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. A SURFACE 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS

NEAR 30N37W. THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE

COLD FRONT REACHES 31N32W. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE

TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS DIGGING TOWARD MOROCCO.

[KShea]

Thanks for the reply....

[ladysail2]

:rolleyes: and what a reply it was!

[GoinCruisin]

:rolleyes: and what a reply it was!

 

At least I did answer the question... no need for the eye rolling :rolleyes:

[mikayla73]

I really hope we don't see any more!

 

thanks for the info ..

[Host Caroline]

There is an excellent website (www.stormcarib.com) that gives updates form the islands on conditions there.. Spotters in Dominica and St Lucia have been reporting high wind and rain for the past couple of days and apparently this will develop into a tropical depression..

There are also some incredible pics from the Cayman site on stormcarib.com of the waves literally over the tender dock there ( you can't see it) on Wednesday and Thursday when Wilma was a couple hundred miles south..

[GoinCruisin]

There is an excellent website (www.stormcarib.com) that gives updates form the islands on conditions there.. Spotters in Dominica and St Lucia have been reporting high wind and rain for the past couple of days and apparently this will develop into a tropical depression..

 

There are also some incredible pics from the Cayman site on stormcarib.com of the waves literally over the tender dock there ( you can't see it) on Wednesday and Thursday when Wilma was a couple hundred miles south..

 

Thanks Caroline, great site!!!!!

[Randy & Carmen]

I hear there is a double storm called Ricky/Lucy boarding Valor a week from Sun.....might better watch that one close!:eek:

[GoinCruisin]

I hear there is a double storm called Ricky/Lucy boarding Valor a week from Sun.....might better watch that one close!:eek:

 

Yup, and it's going to be a doozy :eek: Those that are frail, or have a weak heart, should stay away :eek:

[KShea]

Thanks Caroline for that link...

[2OthCOL]

Hello everyone. A good way to keep an eye on the storm, so to speak, is to visit The National Hurricane Center - NOAA

[KShea]

great link

[Mysticks1]

[Mysticks1]

[AuntieBon]

Good Lord will this hurricane season NEVER end :( :eek:

[ladysail2]

There'll be alot of eye rolling for sure :rolleyes: ! LOL

[pag26]

When does the hurricane season end. I booked our cruise for the 5th Novemeber thinking that the season would be over. Are there likely to be more after alpha.

[deenie-b]

Hurricane Season officially ends at the end of November but the chances of a Hurricane in November are supposed to be extremely small......but who would have thought there would be a Cat 5 in the Western Carib. at the end of October with another storm developing in the Eastern Carib. We've always cruised in October and have never had any problems.

 

We were booked to go out on the Victory today to the Western Carib (changed to Eastern Carib. ) and have spent a stressful week wondering would we go.....would we not.........would we be delayed, diverted........ Wilma took her time so we thought we'd be ok but with tropical storm Alpha now in the eastern carib. and the lingering wind/rain effects from Wilma we opted to cancel and re-book for a later date. Hearing now the port of Miami will close to outbound traffic at 2pm we're glad we did. Now we can only hope there are no more storms after this.