Tropical Storm Epsilon!

[sunshine72]

In response to complaints that postings regarding the storm that refuses to die should be links to plain language articles, instead of technical bulletins, here is today's CNN article on Hurricane Epsilon, the fifth ever hurricane to form in December: http://www.cnn.com/2005/WEATHER/12/07/tropical.weather.ap/index.html

 

As a Northeasterner, I'm less worried about Epsilon than about the snowstorm that threatens to wipe out my office's Christmas party on Friday.

 

Thank you! This is very helpful!

[vicocala]

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 33nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl10 Am Est Wed Dec 07 2005epsilon Is Still A Borderline Hurricane With A Very Ragged Eye...and Outflow That Remains Mostly Undisturbed By The Strong Winds Onthe Periphery Of The Upper-level Trough Overhead. Hi-res Quikscatdata At 08z Contained A Few 60 Kt Vectors In The Northern Eyewall.at 12-km Spacing These Values Were Probably Slight Underestimatesof The Maximum Sustained... Although There Is Always The Questionof Whether Enough Of The Signal Is Coming From The Ocean Surface.the Quikscat Data Do Seem Representative When Considering That 12zdvorak Intensity Estimates Were 65 Kt... And Amsu Estimates From09z Averaged To About 65 Kt. Epsilon Continues Southwestward Rightalong The Upper-level Trough Axis And Is Moving A Little Faster...about 235/13.the Southwestward Motion Should Continue As Long As Epsilon Producessome Deep Convection... Although It Will Probably Bend A Little Tothe South And Slow Down As Northwesterly Shear Likely Begins Toincrease Substantially In Less Than 24 Hours. The Shear Willprobably Not Weaken The Circulation Of Epsilon Quite As Fast As Thegfs And Ukmet Are Suggesting... But Even The Often Shear-resistantgfdl Forecasts Weakening To Less Than Tropical Storm Strength By 36hours. The New Official Intensity Forecast Anticipates Epsiloncould Stay At Or Near Hurricane Intensity For The Next 12-18hours... Followed By A Rapid Decline Due To Northwesterly Shear Asthe Upper-level Trough Currently Overhead Advances Eastward. Sincethe Official Forecast Is Close To The Gfdl Intensity Solution...which Is Only A Little Stronger Than The Ships Guidance... Theofficial Track Forecast Is Also Close To The Gfdl In Anticipating Agradually Slowing Southwestward Motion Of Epsilon Until It Issheared Apart. Epsilon Is Forecast To Degenerate By 48 Hours Intoa Remnant Low... Which Should Thereafter Be Absorbed Into A Frontalzone Associated With An Extratropical Low Pressure System That Willbe Passing To Its North.forecaster Knabbforecast Positions And Max Windsinitial 07/1500z 29.1n 37.9w 65 Kt 12hr Vt 08/0000z 27.8n 38.8w 60 Kt 24hr Vt 08/1200z 26.4n 39.7w 45 Kt 36hr Vt 09/0000z 25.3n 40.3w 30 Kt 48hr Vt 09/1200z 24.6n 40.4w 25 Kt...remnant Low 72hr Vt 10/1200z...absorbed By Frontal System$$

[GulfCoaster]

This thing is pretty amazing, isn't it! It has been on stage long enough and now it is time for Epsilon to make it's exit - FOR GOOD! We now have 2006 to look forward to. Do you think Epsilon will be gone by next June?!?!

 

I sure hope TampaMike is correct in his feelings that the storm won't effect our Veendam cruise leaving this Saturday. I am still worried that the seas may be stirred up a bit from this thing later in the week. However, what can I do? In the mantime, just keeping my fingers crossed....

 

Once again, thanks for all your posts and time spent on this. I for one appreciate it!

 

Mike

[vicocala]

You are welcome Mike. Don't be to concerned. My experience of being on a cruise ship both during Katrina and Wilma is the cruise lines do everything within reason to keep you in sunny skies and calm seas. I just took a look at some of the photographs of the storm and it appears that shearing of the tops have begun already. This time tomorrow (knock, knock) it should be down to not much.

 

But, the one thing I have learned in watching these systems is they are unpredictable to a great deal. But, that is one of the things that facinates me about them.

 

Here is the latest report from a couple hours ago, and again it appears to be already starting to shear:

 

HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 34

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

4 PM EST WED DEC 07 2005

 

THE LATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND THE AIRFORCE CONTINUE TO

CLASSIFY EPSILON AS A MINIMAL HURRICANE..WITH T NUMBERS 3.0-4.0

FROM SAB AND 3.5-4.0 FROM THE AIRFORCE RESPECTIVELY. THIS

CORRESPONDS TO AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65KTS...UNCHANGED FROM THE

PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE

NORTHERN ATLANTIC REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF EPSILON...WITH THE STORM

REMAINING IN A LESS SHEARED ENVIRONMENT TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW

RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC..NORTHEASTWARD TO THE

NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC. EPSILON CONTINUES TO BE STEERED IN A

SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...235/13...ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERIES OF

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE STORM.

 

THE FORECAST RATIONALE FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE HAS NOT CHANGED

APPRECIABLY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING EPSILON TURNING MORE

TO THE SOUTH IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE

WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE STORM AND THE UPPER

LEVEL RIDGE TO EPSILONS WEST OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. WITH

INCREASING NORTHERLY SHEAR EXPECTED OVER THE STORM...WEAKENING IS

LIKELY...WITH EPSILON FALLING BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH EARLY

THURSDAY. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS

THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 36 TO 48 HOURS.

 

 

FORECASTER ORAVEC

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 07/2100Z 28.1N 38.1W 65 KT

12HR VT 08/0600Z 27.2N 39.2W 60 KT

24HR VT 08/1800Z 25.4N 39.8W 40 KT

36HR VT 09/0600Z 24.5N 40.0W 30 KT

48HR VT 09/1800Z 23.6N 40.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

72HR VT 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

[Sage]

Thanks Vicocala. It's about time that this hurricane gets sheared. How's the weather there? The rain is moving in here, and it looks like it might be here all day tomorrow.

[vicocala]

We had rain all night. Fortunately I was correct about the storm, it is nearly gone. My only concern now is the new extra tropical low that will develop considering a couple of those have turned tropical this fall.:(

[vicocala]

Tropical Storm Epsilon Discussion Number 36nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl4 Am Est Thu Dec 08 2005epsilon Is Well On Its Way To Finally Achieving Tropical Depressionstatus. The Low-level Center Is Completely Exposed. The Depth Andextent Of Convection Has Been Rapidly Decreasing This Morning Andonly Remains In A Very Limited Area Downshear Or Southeast Of Thecenter. The Intensity Is Reduced To 35 Kt Based On A Compromisebetween The Various 06z Dvorak T And Ci Numbers... And The Factthat Since Then The Deep Convection Has Almost Disappeared. Theconvection Is Dying Off So Fast That It Will Probably Be Completelygone By The Effective Time Of This Advisory.the Center Of The Tropical Storm Continues Moving Southwestward Buthas Slowed Down Overnight. The Initial Motion Estimate Is 215/7over The Past Few Hours And The Most Recent Satellite Imagessuggest It Might Be Even Slower Than That. Epsilon Will Soon Be Aremnant Low Steered By The Low-level Flow. The Low Will Probablynot Move All That Much During The Next 12 To 24 Hours Since Thelow-level Steering Flow Is Collapsing As A Frontal Systemapproaches From The Northwest. If The Remant Low Still Existsbeyond 24 Hours... It Will Likely Be Absorbed Into The Frontalzone. Several Models Forecast A New Extratropical Low To Developalong That Front After It Absorbs Epsilon... But That Would Have Agood Chance Of Happening Even Without The Remants Of Epsilon.forecaster Knabbforecast Positions And Max Windsinitial 08/0900z 27.1n 39.6w 35 Kt 12hr Vt 08/1800z 26.8n 39.7w 25 Kt...remnant Low 24hr Vt 09/0600z 26.7n 38.9w 25 Kt...remnant Low 36hr Vt 09/1800z...absorbed By Frontal Zone$$

[vicocala]

The last discusssion and advisory have been posted for Epsilon. Hopefully as is stated below this will be the final one of the season. My thanks go out to all who have read these hurricane threads and my heart goes out to those who have been affected by the storms. All my best for a Happy Holiday season and Bon Voyage hopefully for this year!

 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 37

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

10 AM EST THU DEC 08 2005

 

CONVECTION HAS VANISHED AND EPSILON IS NOW A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW

CLOUDS. THE CYCLONE IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME

A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE DEPRESSION OR THE

REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ABOUT 5 TO 10

KNOTS STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW UNTIL DISSIPATION. I HOPE THIS

IS THE END OF THE LONG LASTING 2005 HURRICANE SEASON.

 

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS

FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS

HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

 

FORECASTER AVILA

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 08/1500Z 26.4N 40.3W 30 KT

12HR VT 09/0000Z 26.0N 41.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

24HR VT 09/1200Z 25.5N 42.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

36HR VT 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

 

$$