Tropical Storm Epsilon!

[vicocala]

Interesting information regarding the history of December hurricanes near the bottom of the discussion:

 

HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 14

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

4 PM EST FRI DEC 02 2005

 

EPSILON HAS MAINTAINED A 25 NMI DIAMETER EYE AND THE OUTFLOW

PATTERN HAS REMAINED WELL-ESTABLISHED. SATELLITE INTENSITY

ESTIMATES REMAIN AT T4.0/65 FROM TAFB AND SAB... AND A 02/0701Z

AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS WAS 982 MB/70 KT. BASED ON

THIS INFORMATION... EPSILON REMAINS A 65-KT HURRICANE... ALTHOUGH

IT COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER.

 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/10 KT. SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES

INDICATE EPSILON HAS REMAINED ON TRACK. UNFORTUNATELY... THAT CAN

NOT BE SAID FOR THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE... WHICH HAS MADE A HUGE

SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. THE RESULT IS THAT THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE

LATEST INTERPOLATED FORECAST TRACK ARE BOTH NORTH OF THE GUIDANCE

SUITE. OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS...HOWEVER... THE MODELS HAVE HAD A

TENDENCY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY AND THEN SHIFT BACK

NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS

ONLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AND IS ALONG THE EXTREME NORTHERN

EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO THE UKMET... ECMWF...

AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS... WHICH HAVE BEEN THE STEADIEST MODELS.

HOPEFULLY THE SOUTHWARD TRACK AFTER 72 HOURS THAT THE GFS...GFS

ENSEMBLE... NOGAPS... AND GFDN MODELS ARE FORECASTING WILL NOT

MATERIALIZE SO THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON CAN FINALLY END.

 

EPSILON HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY... AND STEADY

WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE

BEGINS TO MOVE OVER SUB-20C SSTS AND GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS OVER TO

A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 36-48 HOURS.

 

GOING BACK TO 1851... HISTORICAL RECORDS INDICATE EPSILON IS ONLY

THE FIFTH HURRICANE TO FORM DURING THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. OTHER

DECEMBER HURRICANES ARE... UNNAMED 1887... UNNAMED 1925... ALICE #2

IN 1954... AND LILI 1984. EPSILON IS ALSO ONLY THE SIXTH HURRICANE

TO EVER OCCUR DURING DECEMBER... INCLUDING UNNAMED 1887... UNNAMED

1925... ALICE #2 IN 1954... LILI 1984... AND NICOLE 1998.

 

FORECASTER STEWART

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 02/2100Z 34.2N 47.4W 65 KT

12HR VT 03/0600Z 35.1N 45.9W 60 KT

24HR VT 03/1800Z 36.1N 43.9W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL

36HR VT 04/0600Z 37.2N 41.7W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

48HR VT 04/1800Z 38.4N 39.3W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

72HR VT 05/1800Z 40.5N 35.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

96HR VT 06/1800Z 42.5N 31.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

120HR VT 07/1800Z 44.0N 28.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

[vicocala]

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 15

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

10 Pm Est Fri Dec 02 2005

 

There Has Been Little Change To The Structure Of Epsilon Over The

Past Few Hours...with The System Maintaining Modest Amounts Of Deep

Convection...a Well-defined Eye...and Anticyclonic Outflow. Dvorak

Intensity Estimates Are Unchanged And The Initial Intensity Will

Remain 65 Kt For Now...although It Is Not Clear Whether That Much

Wind Is Really Making It To The Surface Given The Modest Convection

And Cool Ssts. As Luck Would Have It...this Evening's Quikscat

Passes Missed The Cyclone.

 

The Initial Motion Estimate Is 055/9...but Over The Past Couple Of

Hours Epsilon Has Been Moving To The Right Of That Heading...and

The Motion Over The Next 6-12 Hours Could Be Quite Important For

Epsilon's Ultimate Track. There Have Been Additional Shifts In The

Track Guidance Models...which Are Essentially Now Split Between Two

Scenarios. The 12z Ukmet And Canadian Models Favor A Continued

Motion To The Northeast Or East-northeast And Absorption By A

Mid-latitude Short Wave In The Westerlies Within Three Days. On The

Other Hand...the Gfs...gfdl...nogaps...and Now Also The Ecmwf...

Show Epsilon Missing The Connection With The Westerlies And Turning

Southward After 72 Hours. The Gfdl And Gfs In Particular Are Very

Quick In Turning Epsilon Eastward Away From The Stronger

Westerlies. Water Vapor Imagery Immediately Upstream Of Epsilon

Shows Mid-level Flow With A Northerly Component. Given This...and

The Recent Rightward Deflection Of The Track...i Am Inclined To

Favor The Latter Of The Two Scenarios. While The Official Track

Has Been Adjusted Considerably Southward Of The Previous Forecast

At Days 4 And 5...it Is Still Well To The North Of Most Of The

Track Guidance...and Further Southward Adjustments Could Be

Required In Subsequent Advisories.

 

Water Temperatures Decrease Along The Forecast Track...and So A Slow

Spin Down Of The Vortex Is Anticipated...with A Gradual Loss Of

Convection And Tropical Characteristics. However...if A More

Southerly Track Materializes...weakening And/or Extratropical

Transition Could Be Delayed Beyond What Is Indicated Below.

 

Forecaster Franklin

 

 

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

 

Initial 03/0300z 34.5n 46.6w 65 Kt

12hr Vt 03/1200z 35.2n 45.0w 60 Kt

24hr Vt 04/0000z 36.1n 42.8w 55 Kt

36hr Vt 04/1200z 36.9n 40.5w 50 Kt...extratropical

48hr Vt 05/0000z 37.5n 38.2w 40 Kt...extratropical

72hr Vt 06/0000z 39.0n 34.0w 35 Kt...extratropical

96hr Vt 07/0000z 39.0n 31.0w 35 Kt...extratropical

120hr Vt 08/0000z 39.0n 30.0w 30 Kt...extratropical

[vicocala]

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 21

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

10 Am Est Sun Dec 04 2005

 

After A Slight Weakening Overnight...morning Satellite Images

Indicate That Epsilon Has Restrengthened. The Eye Has Become More

Symmetric And The Ring Of Convection Is Stronger Than Yesterday.

T-numbers From Tafb And Sab Are 4.5 On The Dvorak Scale And On This

Basis...the Initial Intensity Is Increased To 75 Knots. There Are

No Clear Reasons...and I Am Not Going To Make One Up...to Explain

The Recent Strengthening Of Epsilon And I Am Just Describing The

Facts. However...i Still Have To Make An Intensity Forecast And The

Best Bet At This Time Is To Predict Weakening Due To Cold Water

...high Shear And Dry Air.

 

Epsilon Is Moving Eastward At 10 Knots...running Ahead Of A Strong

Mid-latitude Trough. But Soon...according To The Global

Models...the Cyclone Will Be Trapped South Of A Developing Ridge

Which Eventually Force Epsilon Southward And Then Southwestward.

There Is Fairly Good Guidance Agreement In Showing This Motion.

Although Epsilon Will Encounter Warmer Waters Once It Moves Toward

The Southwest. However...the Upper Level Winds Are Expected To Be

Highly Unfavorable And Epsilon Will Likely Become A Remnant Low. I

Heard That Before About Epsilon...haven't You?

 

Forecaster Avila

 

 

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

 

Initial 04/1500z 34.3n 39.2w 75 Kt

12hr Vt 05/0000z 34.3n 37.2w 60 Kt

24hr Vt 05/1200z 34.0n 35.0w 50 Kt

36hr Vt 06/0000z 33.5n 33.5w 40 Kt...extratropical

48hr Vt 06/1200z 32.0n 33.5w 30 Kt...remnant Low

72hr Vt 07/1200z 29.0n 36.0w 25 Kt...remnant Low

96hr Vt 08/1200z 25.5n 39.0w 25 Kt...remnant Low

120hr Vt 09/1200z 21.5n 44.0w 25 Kt...remnant Low

[Host Walt]

...PS: Walt, if it would not be too much trouble - if you should pass an In-N-Out Burger (There is one on Balboa Blvd in Northridge) please have a Double-Double with grilled onions for me! Thanks! Yup, I'm missing my roots!

That one, at the corner of Serman Way and Balboa, is about 1/2 mile from a client of mine located in an industrial park adjacent to Van Nuys Airport. And my favorite Double-Double is called Double Meat (no cheese), "animal style, no pickle." I'll think of you next time we dine (yes, that's dining, not just eating) at In-And-Out Burger. :D

[vicocala]

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 23

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

10 Pm Est Sun Dec 04 2005

 

Satellite Images Still Depict A Large Eye...but There Are Breaks In

The Eyewall Over The Southeastern Quadrant. High Resolution

Quikscat Data From 2125z Showed Several 60-kt Vectors Over The

Southern Semicircle Of The Cyclone And It Is Assumed That The Peak

Winds Are Slightly Higher. Also...dvorak Current Intensity Numbers

And Amsu Estimates Continue To Support Hurricane Strength.

Upper-level Outflow Is Occurring Primarily Over The Northern

Portion Of The System...where A Frontal Cloud Band Extends

North-northeastward From The Tropical Cyclone. Since Epsilon Is

Expected To Begin Moving Toward Lower Latitudes...it Is Not Likely

To Interact Much More With This Front. However The Gfs Shows The

System Becoming Enmeshed Within A Large Mid-tropospheric Cyclone

That Is Forecast To Cut Off Over The Eastern Atlantic In A Few

Days. This...along With Increasing Vertical Shear...is Likely To

Weaken The System To A Remnant Low Later This Week. It Should Be

Noted That All Of The Available Global Models Show The System

Dissipating Before The End Of The Forecast Period.

 

Epsilon Appears To Be Moving Just South Of East...around 100/8.

Track Guidance Is In General Agreement That The System Will Turn

Southeastward...southward And Southwestward Due To The Steering

Between A Northeast-southwest-oriented Blocking Ridge And The

Abovementioned Cutoff Low. The Gfdl Model Does Not Drive The

System As Much To The Southwest As The Other Dynamical Models. In

Deference To The Gfdl...the Official Forecast Does Not Go Quite As

Far To The Southwest As Shown By The Model Consensus. This Is

Similar To The Previous Advisory's Track Forecast.

 

Based On The Quikscat Data...slight Adjustments To The Wind Radii

Were Made.

 

Forecaster Pasch

 

 

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

 

Initial 05/0300z 34.2n 37.3w 65 Kt

12hr Vt 05/1200z 34.0n 35.8w 60 Kt

24hr Vt 06/0000z 33.4n 34.3w 50 Kt

36hr Vt 06/1200z 32.5n 34.0w 40 Kt

48hr Vt 07/0000z 31.2n 34.9w 30 Kt

72hr Vt 08/0000z 28.0n 38.0w 25 Kt...remnant Low

96hr Vt 09/0000z 25.0n 41.5w 25 Kt...remnant Low

120hr Vt 10/0000z 22.0n 45.0w 20 Kt...remnant Low

 

 

$$

[VABeach]

Thank you for keeping us posted.

[vicocala]

You are very welcome Jenny. Have a great cruise! :)

[VABeach]

Is it just my imagination, or did that thing turn around?!? :mad: Can somone explain this in English... :confused:

[vicocala]

Jenny,

 

Hurricanes sometimes loop as new upper level steering currents develop. Right now they see that the hurricane is going to be blocked from going northward and a new low southeast of Epsilon is going to develop. Since lows in the northern hemisphere turn counter clockwise it should start to turn the storm in the direction of its wind force. Since the hurricane would be about 10 or 11 oclock looking at it from above and the low would be turning counter clockwise it would force the hurricane to move more toward 9 oclock, which if you change the face of the clock to a compass, you would see it means it would push the hurricane to the southwest.

 

I hope that helps. Now for the official discussion:

 

HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 25

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

10 AM EST MON DEC 05 2005

 

SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE

YESTERDAY. THE AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE EYEWALL HAS

CONTINUED TO FLUCTUATE AND IT IS CURRENTLY SURROUNDING THE LARGE EYE

AGAIN. OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FOR THE PAST 3 HOURS HAVE BEEN

OSCILLATING AROUND 4.5 SUGGESTING WINDS OF 75 KNOTS BUT THE

SUBJECTIVE NUMBERS ARE 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE OR 65 KNOTS. INITIAL

INTENSITY IS SET IN BETWEEN AT 70 KNOTS. EPSILON HAS IGNORED THE

COLD SSTS AS WELL AS THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND HAS

MAINTAINED HURRICANE STRENGTH. I AM AM NOT GOING TO SPECULATE ANY

MORE ON THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF EPSILON AND WILL JUST FOLLOW SHIPS

AND GFDL WHICH ARE THE BEST GUIDANCE AVAILABLE. SHIPS MODEL

GRADUALLY WEAKENS THE CYCLONE AND THE GFDL KEEPS IT AS A HURRICANE

FOR NEARLY 3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THEN A

COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS. BOTH OF THE MODELS EITHER

WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE EPSILON BEYOND 3 DAYS AND SO THE THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST.

 

EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 105 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS.

THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING CURRENTS AND GLOBAL MODELS

INSIST ON DEVELOPING A MID-LEVEL HIGH TO THE NORTH AND A CUT OFF

LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF EPSILON. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE EPSILON

ON A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK IN DAY OR SO. BY THEN...EPSILON IS EXPECTED

TO BE A WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE OR A REMNANT LOW.

 

FORECASTER AVILA

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 05/1500Z 33.6N 35.1W 70 KT

12HR VT 06/0000Z 33.3N 34.0W 65 KT

24HR VT 06/1200Z 32.0N 34.0W 55 KT

36HR VT 07/0000Z 30.5N 35.5W 45 KT

48HR VT 07/1200Z 29.0N 37.0W 30 KT

72HR VT 08/1200Z 26.0N 40.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

96HR VT 09/1200Z 23.0N 43.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

120HR VT 10/1200Z 19.5N 47.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

 

 

$$

[HeatherInFlorida]

That one, at the corner of Serman Way and Balboa, is about 1/2 mile from a client of mine located in an industrial park adjacent to Van Nuys Airport. And my favorite Double-Double is called Double Meat (no cheese), "animal style, no pickle." I'll think of you next time we dine (yes, that's dining, not just eating) at In-And-Out Burger. :D

 

What is an In-And-Out Burger anyway? I've never heard of it and would really like an explanation of what it means. Does it mean "fast"??

[Oceanwench]

Is it just my imagination, or did that thing turn around?!? :mad: Can somone explain this in English... :confused:

 

My point exactly ... explain it in English.

Brief and to the point.

[serendipity1499]

Is it really that important? Isn't it up to the Moderators to decide what should or should not be on these boards.. If posts bother someone, why not just ignore them, instead of arguing over inane points..

[GulfCoaster]

Heather:

 

In-N-Out Burger is a "drive in" hamburger stand which started in Southern California. They are located in Las Vegas as well. You drive "in", place your order, drive up to the pick-up window to get it and then drive "out" off the property - "in-n-out". That's it.

 

They do not franchise and everything is made fresh to order. It is rated by many as the #1 hamburger in So Cal. As Walt says and I will second it - it IS dining, not eating. the burgers are THAT good!! I love them and the first place I usually go when I get back to LAX is the one by the airport itself on Sepulveda Blvd. They are awesome!! Get the Double-Double (double meat and double cheese).

 

Now, if you want to really top off your eating spree while in the City of Angels - simply stop by a little hot dog stand called Pink's on La Brea and Melrose for the BEST hot dog in Los Angeles (IMHO). Extra chili please! There will be a line at all hours of the day and night and you will usually see a celebrity or three if you go late or after the bars close. This is also dining at it's finest. They have been around for over 40 + years. Just bring the Tums!

 

Anyway, we leave this Saturday for our Veendam cruise. We are tracking Epsilon and appreciate the posts or any information we can find. This "thing that won't die" is projected to be going toward the area we are supposed to cruise. Give or take. Since losing my house to Katrina, I really want to GET AWAY FROM HURRICANES FOR AWHILE. After all, we have only 23 weeks left until the '06 Season begins so for now and being a tad storm weary, I would like to take a break.

 

I hope Epsilon will be long gone before we get into the area it is projected to visit, but who knows as the 2005 season just does not want to end. I for one appreciate the posts on the weather or any weather, especially when I am traveling. So a big thank you goes out to Vicocala for posting the info!

 

Mike

[TidePrideGA]

I for one appreciate the posts on the weather or any weather, especially when I am traveling. So a big thank you goes out to Vicocala for posting the info!

 

I agree. I really appreciate the storm-related posts and the detail provided! Thanks, Vicocala!

[csg99]

just MHO, but these cut and paste posts are not that useful. The Weather Channel's website is much more useful in trying to follow the storms, and figure out where they're going--it's in civilian English, not jibberish....

[GulfCoaster]

Yes, It is turning around!!!

 

No doubt it wants us to buy it a Wang-Wang from the ships bars. PLEASE GO AWAY!!! LET'S END THIS SEASON ONCE AND FOR ALL!!

 

The NHC has "no answers" for this or why this "thing" is still in existence!

 

ARRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGHHHHHHH!!!!!!!

 

Mike

[vicocala]

Folks you are sincerely welcome. And it makes much more sense to be posting NHC bulletins than talking about a small burger chain in California, but that is just me. ;) BTW, I don't dumb down the statements for a couple of reasons (1) I respect other posters intelligence and figure if they are interested enough in the information they can research anything they don't understand and (2) I may leave something important out that someone may have wanted to see. We have many posters and I don't want to presume what others wish to read and what information is important to their decision making.

 

Here is the latest on the storm that wouldn't die:

 

HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 26

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

4 PM EST MON DEC 05 2005

 

THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE REMARKABLY WELL-ORGANIZED FOR A

HURRICANE AT SUCH HIGH LATITUDE IN DECEMBER. IT HAS A WELL-DEFINED

LARGE EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF CONVECTION...AND THE OUTFLOW IS

ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. EPSILON RESEMBLES ONE OF THESE

ANNULAR HURRICANES OR "TRUCK TIRE PATTERN" DESCRIBED IN THE

SCIENTIFIC LITERATURE. ALTHOUGH THIS CLASSIFICATION IS FOR

HURRICANES IN THE DEEP TROPICS...EPSILON HAS INDEED MAINTAINED ITS

INTENSITY...MORE THAN ANTICIPATED...LIKE THESE TYPE OF ANNULAR

HURRICANES. DVORAK ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70

KNOTS. ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIATED DURING THE

NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...EPSILON SHOULD WEAKEN AT A FASTER

PACE AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW AS IT MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD AND

ENCOUNTERS STRONGER SHEAR. ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL...THE 200

MB TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN THE ONLY ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETER CONTRIBUTING

POSITIVELY TO THE INTENSITY OF EPSILON FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS.

 

EPSILON IS ALREADY SLOWING DOWN...APPARENTLY GETTING READY TO MAKE

THE SOUTHWARD TURN...MUCH ANTICIPATED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. LATEST

GUIDANCE SHOWS A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES TO

SOUTHWEST COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...AND THE GFDL TURNS THE

CYCLONE EASTWARD AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST DECREASED THE FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 72 HOURS TO COMPENSATE

FOR THE EASTWARD COMPONENT SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL. BY THEN EPSILON

SHOULD BE A REMNANT LOW...WE WOULD LIKE.

 

FORECASTER AVILA

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 05/2100Z 33.7N 34.4W 70 KT

12HR VT 06/0600Z 33.5N 33.9W 65 KT

24HR VT 06/1800Z 32.0N 34.5W 60 KT

36HR VT 07/0600Z 30.5N 35.5W 45 KT

48HR VT 07/1800Z 29.0N 36.5W 30 KT

72HR VT 08/1800Z 26.1N 39.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

96HR VT 09/1800Z 24.0N 41.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

120HR VT 10/1800Z 22.5N 42.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

 

 

$$

[vicocala]

Tonights edition, sounding better all the time:

 

TCDAT4

HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 27

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

10 PM EST MON DEC 05 2005

 

WE HAVE SAID THIS BEFORE AT TIMES DURING THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...

ONLY TO HAVE EPSILON MAKE A COMEBACK THE FOLLOWING MORNING... BUT

EPSILON REALLY DOES NOT APPEAR AS STRONG THIS EVENING AS IT DID

THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP CONVECTION HAS LOST SOME CONSOLIDATION AND

THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE ELONGATED NORTHWEST

TO SOUTHEAST. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE SIMILAR TO BEFORE...

MOSTLY 65 KT WITH ANOTHER AT 77 KT... BUT NOW ALL OF THE T-NUMBERS

CORRESPOND TO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 65 KT. AFTER MOVING

EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FOR MOST OF THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS... EPSILON

NOW SEEMS TO HAVE BEGUN THE TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL

MOTION ESTIMATE IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 135/3... AND VERY RECENTLY IT

MIGHT NOT HAVE MOVED MUCH AT ALL.

 

THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL AGREE EPSILON WILL BEGIN MOVING SOUTHWARD

VERY SOON AND THEN MOVE GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW

DAYS AS A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS TO ITS WEST. ESPECIALLY GIVEN

THE APPARENT TURN IN PROGRESS... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GENERALLY

FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO WITH CONFIDENCE. OCEAN TEMPERATURES STEADILY

INCREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK... BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT

LIKELY COOPERATE IN PROVIDING AN ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH EPSILON CAN

SURVIVE VERY LONG AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. SOON EPSILON WILL NO

LONGER BE EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP WESTERLY STEERING CURRENT OF THE

PAST SEVERAL DAYS... AND BY ABOUT 36 HOURS IT WILL PROBABLY BEGIN

WEAKENING FAIRLY QUICKLY. BY THAT TIME STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS

TO THE WEST OF A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SHEAR

EPSILON... TO PIECES IF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL DEPICTIONS OF THE

CIRCULATION ARE ANY INDICATION. EVEN THE GFDL FORECASTS THE

REMNANT LOW TO DISSIPATE BY 120 HOURS. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE HAS NOT

PERFORMED WELL DURING EPSILON THUS FAR... IN PART DUE TO A LACK OF

MANY SYSTEMS LIKE THIS IN THE DEVELOPMENTAL DATABASE. SHIPS

CONTINUES TO INSIST ON STEADY WEAKENING... WHICH STILL MIGHT NOT

HAPPEN DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO... BUT SHIPS PROBABLY HAS

THE RIGHT IDEA BEGINNING IN ABOUT 36 HOURS ONCE THE SHEAR REALLY

KICKS IN. SO EPSILON'S DAYS APPEAR TO BE NUMBERED... WITH THAT

NUMBER PROBABLY BEING LESS THAN FIVE... AND THE NEW OFFICIAL

FORECAST ONLY HOLDS ON TO A REMANT LOW THROUGH 96 HOURS. OTHERWISE

THE PACE OF WEAKENING IN THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO

THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

 

 

FORECASTER KNABB

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 06/0300Z 33.3N 33.8W 65 KT

12HR VT 06/1200Z 32.3N 33.7W 60 KT

24HR VT 07/0000Z 30.7N 34.5W 55 KT

36HR VT 07/1200Z 29.3N 35.7W 40 KT

48HR VT 08/0000Z 27.8N 37.0W 30 KT

72HR VT 09/0000Z 25.0N 39.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

96HR VT 10/0000Z 22.5N 41.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

120HR VT 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

[vicocala]

Looks like the forecasters are getting a bit flabbergasted ;) :

 

HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 28

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

4 AM EST TUE DEC 06 2005

 

I HAVE RUN OUT OF THINGS TO SAY...AND THIS ONE WILL BE SHORT.

EPSILON CONTINUES ON STEADY STATE WITH A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION

WHICH INTERMITTENTLY SURROUNDS THE LARGE EYE. INITIAL INTENSITY

REMAINS AT 65 KNOTS BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.

 

EPSILON IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 4 KNOTS. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE

NORTH...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL

INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AND CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK UNTIL

DISSIPATION IN 120 HOURS OR SOONER. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED

BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. ONLY THE GFDL KEEPS EPSILON AS A

HURRICANE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE TRACK BEYOND 3 DAYS

CHANGED BACK TO THE NORTHEAST.

 

FORECASTER AVILA

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 06/0900Z 32.9N 33.9W 65 KT

12HR VT 06/1800Z 32.1N 34.2W 55 KT

24HR VT 07/0600Z 30.5N 35.0W 50 KT

36HR VT 07/1800Z 29.0N 36.5W 40 KT

48HR VT 08/0600Z 28.0N 37.5W 30 KT

72HR VT 09/0600Z 25.0N 40.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

96HR VT 10/0600Z 23.0N 41.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

120HR VT 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

[TampaMike]

Gulfcoaster,

 

No need to worry about Epsilon...too far and not fast enough to catch us on Veendam. I am bringing a few extra oars along with my plywood, just in case. The only big wind you need to be concerned with is standing in line at the Lido the day after the Chocolate Extravaganza Buffet.

 

However, the is a long article somewhere, I need to find it and post it here. But apparently due to a Bush Administration conspiracy on Global Warming, the is a HUGE iceberg adrift in the Caribbean. Last report it was seen amidst wreckage from an unidentified cruise ship. The surviving passengers were clinging to the berg remains, cleverly sculpted into the shape of a midnight buffet swan.

 

Discuss.

[vicocala]

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 29

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

10 Am Est Tue Dec 06 2005

 

Epsilon Appears To Still Be A Hurricane... But Just Barely. A

Quikscat Overpass At About 08z Estimated Winds As Strong As 55 Kt

To The West Of The Center And Just Outside Of The Deepest

Convection... So 65 Kt Winds Were Probably Occurring Within The

Convection At That Time. The Cloud Pattern Deteriorated A Little

Until 12z When Dvorak Intensity Estimates Were 55-65 Kt. Just When

I Was Tempted To Reduce The Intensity To 60 Kt... Epsilon Started

To Again Wrap Some Convective Bands Of Modest Depth Tightly Around

The Center... So It Remains A 65-kt Hurricane. However... The

Outflow Pattern Is Elongating Southwest To Northeast Within An

Upper-level Trough Overhead... So The Shear Will Not Be Weak For

Too Much Longer. Epsilon Continues Moving Toward The South At

About 8 Kt... Although Recently There Is The Hint That The Expected

Turn To The Southwest Is Beginning.

 

A Building Deep-layer Ridge To The North And West Of Epsilon Is

Forecast By All Of The Dynamical Models To Force The Tropical

Cyclone Southwestward Later Today Through At Least 48 Hours. On

That Track Epsilon Will Still Be Beneath The Upper-level Trough

Axis For About 24 Hours. Only Gradual Weakening Is Forecast During

That Period As The Outflow Becomes More Restricted. Once Epsilon

Emerges West Of The Eastward-moving Upper-level Trough... Strong

Northwesterly Wind Shear Should Induce A More Steady Decline. The

Official Track And Intensity Forecasts Are Similar To The Previous

Advisory... Calling For Epsilon To Fall Below Tropical Storm

Strength In About 48 Hours. The Track Of The Eventual Remnant Low

Is A Bit Uncertain Since Some Of The Models Indicate It Could Be

Drawn Back Northward Ahead Of A Cold Front... Instead Of The

Official Forecast Scenario Of A Continued Southwestward Motion.

 

 

Forecaster Knabb

 

 

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

 

Initial 06/1500z 31.9n 33.8w 65 Kt

12hr Vt 07/0000z 30.5n 34.8w 55 Kt

24hr Vt 07/1200z 28.9n 36.5w 50 Kt

36hr Vt 08/0000z 27.6n 37.9w 40 Kt

48hr Vt 08/1200z 26.4n 39.0w 30 Kt

72hr Vt 09/1200z 25.0n 40.0w 25 Kt...remnant Low

96hr Vt 10/1200z 23.5n 40.5w 20 Kt...remnant Low

120hr Vt 11/1200z...dissipated

[Sage]

I have tried to ignore this hurricane, and I guess by being in denial, it won't go away until I inquire about it. Just kidding :D Vic, I hear this thing is headed southwest; is it never going to die? Gee, won't the season ever end? Thanks for the updates.

[vicocala]

Heather, yup let's let it go. In the meantime I don't like some of the wording in this forecast, could we get another storm?!?

 

HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 30

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

4 PM EST TUE DEC 06 2005

 

EPSILON HAS SINCE LATE THIS MORNING BEEN MOVING DECIDEDLY TOWARD THE

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 210/8 WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY A DEEP LAYER

RIDGE TO ITS NORTH AND WEST. THIS MOTION IS KEEPING EPSILON

BENEATH THE AXIS OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH... SHELTERING THE

CORE OF THE HURRICANE FROM WIND SHEAR. EVEN THOUGH THE OUTFLOW

PATTERN IS GRADUALLY ELONGATING... THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CORE DOES

NOT APPEAR TO HAVE CHANGED TODAY. THE RAGGED EYE IS STILL CLOSED

AND CONVECTION WRAPS ESSENTIALLY ALL THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER WITH

TOPS AS COLD AS ABOUT -60C. THE INTENSITY IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...

AS DVORAK ESTIMATES STILL RANGE FROM 55 TO 65 KT... BUT I PREFER TO

STAY ON THE HIGH END UNTIL THE SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF A TRUE

WEAKENING TREND.

 

A GENERAL SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE MODELS TO

CONTINUE FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS

BASICALLY UNCHANGED THROUGH THAT TIME. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER

EPSILON IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO ADVANCE

EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SO EPSILON CANNOT STAY

BENEATH IT FOREVER. ABOUT 24 MORE HOURS IS MORE LIKE IT. STRONG

WIND SHEAR INCOMING FROM THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD

INEVITABLY WEAKEN EPSILON. WHILE THE DECLINE OF EPSILON WILL

PROBABLY BE GRADUAL AT BEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO... ALL

AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SHEAR-INDUCED WEAKENING WILL BEGIN

IN EARNEST SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN

SHIPS AND GFDL IN KEEPING EPSILON A TROPICAL STORM FOR LESS THAN 48

HOURS. ASSUMING THAT SCENARIO UNFOLDS... WHAT IS LEFT OF EPSILON

IS NOW FORECAST BY NEARLY ALL THE MODELS TO BECOME INVOLVED IN SOME

WAY WITH A FRONTAL ZONE IN ABOUT THREE DAYS... AND THE NEW OFFICIAL

FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. THE FRONT WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN

EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO

DEVELOP NORTH OF EPSILON IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. I HESITATE TO MENTION

THAT MOST OF THE MODELS FORECAST THIS EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM... AFTER

ABSORBING EPSILON... TO SAG BACK TO THE SOUTH OF 30N ON DAY 5 TO

THE WEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. HOWEVER THAT SYSTEM DOES OR DOES

NOT EVOLVE... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES EPSILON WILL

ALREADY HAVE MET ITS DEMISE.

 

 

FORECASTER KNABB

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INITIAL 06/2100Z 31.1N 34.5W 65 KT

12HR VT 07/0600Z 29.9N 35.6W 60 KT

24HR VT 07/1800Z 28.4N 37.0W 55 KT

36HR VT 08/0600Z 27.1N 38.2W 40 KT

48HR VT 08/1800Z 26.5N 38.7W 30 KT

72HR VT 09/1800Z 26.0N 37.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW

96HR VT 10/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

[vicocala]

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 31

Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl

10 Pm Est Tue Dec 06 2005

 

The End Is In Sight. It Really Really Is. But In The Meantime...

Epsilon Continues To Maintain Hurricane Status. Hi-res Data From

The 2037z Quikscat Pass Showed Some Very Reasonable-looking 60 Kt

Vectors In Much Of The Eyewall...and Allowing For The Horizontal

Resolution Of The Instrument...it Is Likely That There Are Still

Some 65 Kt Winds Present In The Circulation. Dvorak Intensity

Estimates From Tafb And Sab Are Also Still 65 Kt. Water Vapor

Imagery...however...shows Northwesterly Flow Beginning To Impinge

On And Disrupt The Outflow To The North Of The Cyclone. The Strong

Frontal System That Moved Off The Eastern Seaboard This Morning Is

Sweeping Eastward...and Very Strong Upper-level Northwesterlies

Ahead Of This Trough Are Forecast To Overtake Epsilon In About 24

Hours. The Northwesterly Upper Flow Should Be Strong Enough To

Shear Away The Convection...leaving Epsilon As A Remnant Low To Be

Absorbed When The Surface Front Arrives In 48 To 72 Hours.

 

The Initial Motion Is 215/10...with Steering Provided By A Deep

Layer Ridge To The North And West Of The Cyclone. This General

Motion Should Continue For Another 36 Hours Or So Until The Cyclone

Shears Off...at Which Point The Motion Is Less Certain. Steering

Currents Ahead Of The Approaching Front Are Likely To Be

Weaker...so Little Motion Is Shown Just Prior To Absorption By The

Front. The Official Forecast Is Similar To The Previous Advisory

And Is Closest To The Gfs And Fsu Superensemble.

 

Forecaster Franklin

 

 

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

 

Initial 07/0300z 30.3n 35.3w 65 Kt

12hr Vt 07/1200z 29.1n 36.4w 60 Kt

24hr Vt 08/0000z 27.5n 37.5w 55 Kt

36hr Vt 08/1200z 26.5n 38.4w 35 Kt

48hr Vt 09/0000z 26.0n 38.5w 25 Kt...remnant Low

72hr Vt 10/0000z...absorbed By Frontal System

[Joanandjoe]

In response to complaints that postings regarding the storm that refuses to die should be links to plain language articles, instead of technical bulletins, here is today's CNN article on Hurricane Epsilon, the fifth ever hurricane to form in December: http://www.cnn.com/2005/WEATHER/12/07/tropical.weather.ap/index.html

 

As a Northeasterner, I'm less worried about Epsilon than about the snowstorm that threatens to wipe out my office's Christmas party on Friday.