Carnival has upper hand on Royal Caribbean? Even with RCL's biggest cruise ship?

[jimbo5544]

I think jonbgd's reply wanted to highlight the vapid nature of the fear-mongering comments to which jonbgd was replying. "If the world collapses in on itself, then Connecticut is going to be destroyed. Perhaps living and even buying property in Connecticut is foolish." That statement has the same "logic", and the same lack of informational value, especially in light of the fact that there is both upside to investments as well as downside, and the fact that the professional industry analysts who actually have their finger on the pulse of the industry are saying that the upside is better than the downside. I know it is trendy and cool to discount intelligence, research and knowledge these days, in favor of sensationalistic exhortation, but the reality is that intelligence, research and knowledge matters. While nothing is (ever) assured, if we're going to float "logic" such as this then it makes more sense to float the logic that is better supported by intelligence, research and knowledge, or at least to refrain from floating "logic" is less supported by intelligence, research and knowledge that its opposite. It is better to say nothing than that put front-and-center the assumptions that are less likely.

 

It could be, or it could be a big upside as well, and that's currently more likely according to the folks still doing what you used to do. More importantly, the cruise lines know the risks, and they adjust to the risks. For example, we were talking this morning about how some of the cruise lines are paying down the debt sooner than they had in the past, i.e., not relying on the cash gravy train lasting as long as they have in the past. We've done the same thing in our lives: We own our home now so if the worst happens and we both lose our jobs, we can wait out the trough in the cycle no problem. The quicker retirement of debt is critical in an economy that rocks back and forth a lot.

 

 

 

Understand your thoughts, and although mentioned rhetorically CT might be doomed, at

least in the short run, but I digress......

 

 

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[bUU]

If you use analysts definitely find more than a couple of independent ones. But as a life long contrarian I tend to pay close attention to the minority opinion. But that's just me.

I think the contrarian's time has come and gone - not because it wasn't a sound practice, but rather because minority opinions have become a veritable cesspool of attention-seekers being contrary solely for the petty thrill of being contrary. The new haven is paying attention to specific voices that have gained one's trust, regardless of whether they're supported by the majority or the minority. Still, I feel that's still quite risky.

[DirtyDawg]

I think the contrarian's time has come and gone - not because it wasn't a sound practice, but rather because minority opinions have become a veritable cesspool of attention-seekers being contrary solely for the petty thrill of being contrary. The new haven is paying attention to specific voices that have gained one's trust, regardless of whether they're supported by the majority or the minority. Still, I feel that's still quite risky.

 

I was speaking more from the investor's perspective but it applies in other areas of life as well. I'm not sure which you are commentating on. Perhaps some examples of the 'minority opinions that have become a veritable cesspool of attention-seekers being contrary solely for the petty thrill of being contrary.' would help.

[Cafedumonde]

I don't understand how msc is pumping out so many ships. It seems like they are working with low margins already since their prices are so low. What do they do if they have to lower the prices even more?

I have also been wondering, what if all the cruise lines run out of people to work on the ships? It seems like eventually their labor costs will go up and I wonder what that will do to cruising.

[jimbo5544]

I don't understand how msc is pumping out so many ships. It seems like they are working with low margins already since their prices are so low. What do they do if they have to lower the prices even more?

I have also been wondering, what if all the cruise lines run out of people to work on the ships? It seems like eventually their labor costs will go up and I wonder what that will do to cruising.

 

 

 

MSC is owned (not sure if it is private or public) by the largest shipping container company in the world. He can certainly afford to (and is) pump our many ships in a row. I believe the current pace he is doing it at (combined with the cost) is record setting material.

 

 

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