Vacinated. COVID test required?

[Daniel A]

4 hours ago, 1985rz1 said:

Dan (if I  may be so bold)

 

I think we agree on the meaning of the 95% and 5%.

 

As for the comparison of polls, my gripe with polls is not the methodology, it's the sampling.  Statistical analyses are only as good as the data.  In conducting polls it's difficult to sample an accurate representation given the number of people who don't answer, hang up, and purposely misstate the truth.  And then there is the uncertainty associated with registered voter versus likely voter....and the very changing minds of the voters responding to the most recent developments.  Pollsters do try to account for these data flaws, but in my opinion, there is an inherent uncertainty in whether a given sample is truly representative.  That uncertainty is much more controlled controlled in scientific analyses (not that they are prefect) and those analyses should benefit from a much higher confidence in the results than should polls.

 

Maybe I'm too pessimistic about the ability of pollsters to account for the inherent data problems, but poor ability to predict the election results could be one indication of the flawed sampling in polls.  But I believe that scientific analyses are much more reliable in extrapolating it results to the general population than voter analyses because of the quality of the data.  Such a belief is the burden of some scientists 🙂.

I'm sorry if I didn't make my point clear.  I wasn't trying to say that the accuracy and reliability of polls and scientific research are similar.  I was more saying that the function of the results is similar in that they are used to be a predictor of future activity.  I completely agree with you as to the significant lack of ability on the part of polls to do those predictions with as good reliability as peer reviewed scientific research.

[1985rz1]

2 hours ago, Daniel A said:

I'm sorry if I didn't make my point clear.  I wasn't trying to say that the accuracy and reliability of polls and scientific research are similar.  I was more saying that the function of the results is similar in that they are used to be a predictor of future activity.  I completely agree with you as to the significant lack of ability on the part of polls to do those predictions with as good reliability as peer reviewed scientific research.

Miscommunication is a problem with online forums, email communications, and tweets (the latter of which are currently not in my online arsenal).  Without the nuances of speech, facial responses, and the subtleties of other face-to-face communications, we are often the victims of digital communications.  So not to worry, your explanation clears up any misunderstandings on my part.

 

Wishing you a Happy Holiday and a hope of cruising in the near future.