Passenger Vessel Services Act summary to date

[DAGVBSB]

I believe the Golden Princess April 1 '09 still has cabins available ;)

 

Those of us in Education can only go in the summer... and unfortunately only NCL offers summer cruises to Hawaii. (I know, I have checked....)

 

Oh wait.... there is a good chance that the Pride of America won't even be sailing next summer if Apollo pulls the plug this December.......

[vjmatty]

Those of us in Education can only go in the summer... and unfortunately only NCL offers summer cruises to Hawaii. (I know, I have checked....)

 

Oh wait.... there is a good chance that the Pride of America won't even be sailing next summer if Apollo pulls the plug this December.......

 

Here the kids are off for two weeks in April every year. They can't do February breaks because of winter sports season makes it too inconvenient for parents finding child care.

 

I noticed that NCL is the only one doing year-round Hawaii cruises. I don't get the point of inter-Hawaii cruises... don't they have a ferry system there? Doesn't seem like cruise material to me. Yawn. :rolleyes:

[DAGVBSB]

Here the kids are off for two weeks in April every year. They can't do February breaks because of winter sports season makes it too inconvenient for parents finding child care.

 

I noticed that NCL is the only one doing year-round Hawaii cruises. I don't get the point of inter-Hawaii cruises... don't they have a ferry system there? Doesn't seem like cruise material to me. Yawn. :rolleyes:

 

In my case I can't take Spring Break (around Easter here) due to Spring Sports. We have one day in February for President's Day. Those with kids here can't do Christmas trips due to Winter Sports.

 

 

Actually I have taken the NCL cruise around the islands. It is not a bad way to see the islands. Visit a different island each day, have your meals and sleep on the ship, have your evening entertainment on the ship and only have to unpack and pack once..... Not as bad as you may think.

[DAGVBSB]

I don't know...it seems there's been many articles that said there's a decision coming soon. Then nothing. We keep hearing different dates. June 1st has passed.

 

After the February 1 date passed and the hub bub about the Alaska cruises popped up, I began to say that July 1 would be a new target date.

 

July 1 makes sense... put a 90 day "grace" period for cruise lines to comply with the new rules and you have safely put most of the Alaska season in the books without any issues or complaints.

 

If not July 1, then look for October 1 or even not until 2009. They may be waiting on Apollo's decision on the Pride of America and NCL-A.

 

It could be a little game they are all playing... NCL is waiting to make a decision on NCL-A to see what C&BP does about the PVSA and C&BP is waiting to issue a decision to see what NCL/Apollos does about NCL-A.

[Cruisin' Chick]

[/b][/color]

 

 

Well how about a group cruise for the posters and the lurkers? Preferably and hopefully one from LA to Hawaii WITHOUT having to stop somewhere for 48 hours and not on NCL! It has been an informative thread, certainly one I have enjoyed reading.

 

Annieeee

 

Those of us in Education can only go in the summer... and unfortunately only NCL offers summer cruises to Hawaii. (I know, I have checked....)

 

Oh wait.... there is a good chance that the Pride of America won't even be sailing next summer if Apollo pulls the plug this December.......

 

After the February 1 date passed and the hub bub about the Alaska cruises popped up, I began to say that July 1 would be a new target date.

 

July 1 makes sense... put a 90 day "grace" period for cruise lines to comply with the new rules and you have safely put most of the Alaska season in the books without any issues or complaints.

 

If not July 1, then look for October 1 or even not until 2009. They may be waiting on Apollo's decision on the Pride of America and NCL-A.

 

It could be a little game they are all playing... NCL is waiting to make a decision on NCL-A to see what C&BP does about the PVSA and C&BP is waiting to issue a decision to see what NCL/Apollos does about NCL-A.

 

We went on our Hawaiian cruise during winter break. It fit in nicely. We can only go on vacations while school is out, too.

 

Hopefully, some announcement will be made soon that says the CBP is postponing any revisions for a while, so that those who are booked or planning to book a cruise will rest easy. It seems pretty cruel that a governmental agency is doing this to so many people. Oh, wait, it's a governmental agency.:rolleyes:

[DAGVBSB]

Ok, more bad news for NCL-America:

 

I literally just watched a report on NBC News that talked about the travel crisis. Jet fuel has increased 100% in just the past 12 months. (I'm sure that fuel for the ships has also increased nearly that amount.) The airline industry is calling this a crisis that will be far worse than 9/11 and many won't survive.

 

They are predicting a 75-100% increase in airfares over the next 9 months. Some airlines are mothballing planes and decreasing the number of available seats. Even then they say the airlines won't be turning a profit.

 

The reporter said that airlines are going to cater less to leisure travelers and cut more routes like Las Vegas, Hawaii and Orlando to force those prices up and thus allowing them to keep business rates down and the cheaper service to their hubs up.

 

They also said that as a result, many leisure travelers are simply going to stay home due to the high costs. That will lead to lost revenue for many tourist destinations and tourist activities. It would appear that the cruise industry is going to be facing the same issues that the airline industry is going to face. Will families be willing to pay extremely high air costs just to get to the cruise location??

 

 

Will people fly to Hawaii to sail on the POAm? Doubtful...if people are even going to go to Hawaii, then look for them to fly there and stay in one location. If the other lines can keep the West Coast/Hawaii trips lower, then those may become the option of choice for people to visit Hawaii. Fly into a major city like LA or San Francisco (where airfares will be lower) and then sail over instead of paying the higher costs of round trips to Hawaii.

 

The Pride of America will be faced with the higher costs of the American wage, higher supply costs in Hawaii, no casino and now the prospect of their passenger base dwindling because of high airfare.

 

I am now more convinced than ever before that NCL-A will fold by the end of the year and the Pride of America will be reflagged into the International fleet. I look for NCL to use the "Norweigan Lei" (as I refer to the reflagged POAm) to sail 10 and 11 day Hawaii-Fanning Island trips or even begin NCL's own West Coast/Hawaii trips. At least the Fanning Island trips would be different and may entice people to pay the extra to fly to Hawaii.

[SeattleCruiselover]

Ok, more bad news for NCL-America:

 

I literally just watched a report on NBC News that talked about the travel crisis. Jet fuel has increased 100% in just the past 12 months. (I'm sure that fuel for the ships has also increased nearly that amount.) The airline industry is calling this a crisis that will be far worse than 9/11 and many won't survive.

 

They are predicting a 75-100% increase in airfares over the next 9 months. Some airlines are mothballing planes and decreasing the number of available seats. Even then they say the airlines won't be turning a profit.

 

The reporter said that airlines are going to cater less to leisure travelers and cut more routes like Las Vegas, Hawaii and Orlando to force those prices up and thus allowing them to keep business rates down and the cheaper service to their hubs up.

 

They also said that as a result, many leisure travelers are simply going to stay home due to the high costs. That will lead to lost revenue for many tourist destinations and tourist activities. It would appear that the cruise industry is going to be facing the same issues that the airline industry is going to face. Will families be willing to pay extremely high air costs just to get to the cruise location??

 

 

Will people fly to Hawaii to sail on the POAm? Doubtful...if people are even going to go to Hawaii, then look for them to fly there and stay in one location. If the other lines can keep the West Coast/Hawaii trips lower, then those may become the option of choice for people to visit Hawaii. Fly into a major city like LA or San Francisco (where airfares will be lower) and then sail over instead of paying the higher costs of round trips to Hawaii.

 

The Pride of America will be faced with the higher costs of the American wage, higher supply costs in Hawaii, no casino and now the prospect of their passenger base dwindling because of high airfare.

 

I am now more convinced than ever before that NCL-A will fold by the end of the year and the Pride of America will be reflagged into the International fleet. I look for NCL to use the "Norweigan Lei" (as I refer to the reflagged POAm) to sail 10 and 11 day Hawaii-Fanning Island trips or even begin NCL's own West Coast/Hawaii trips. At least the Fanning Island trips would be different and may entice people to pay the extra to fly to Hawaii.

 

Which, if they are smart (and I use the term loosely when applied to anything having to do with the governmental agencies involved in this) means that they OUGHT to do whatever it takes to continue to support homeland cruising, so that those who can afford it can still cruise from nearby ports when possible. That said, watch them do just the opposite....:( :confused:

[smeyer418]

Ok, more bad news for NCL-America:

 

I literally just watched a report on NBC News that talked about the travel crisis. Jet fuel has increased 100% in just the past 12 months. (I'm sure that fuel for the ships has also increased nearly that amount.) The airline industry is calling this a crisis that will be far worse than 9/11 and many won't survive.

 

They are predicting a 75-100% increase in airfares over the next 9 months. Some airlines are mothballing planes and decreasing the number of available seats. Even then they say the airlines won't be turning a profit.

 

The reporter said that airlines are going to cater less to leisure travelers and cut more routes like Las Vegas, Hawaii and Orlando to force those prices up and thus allowing them to keep business rates down and the cheaper service to their hubs up.

 

They also said that as a result, many leisure travelers are simply going to stay home due to the high costs. That will lead to lost revenue for many tourist destinations and tourist activities. It would appear that the cruise industry is going to be facing the same issues that the airline industry is going to face. Will families be willing to pay extremely high air costs just to get to the cruise location??

 

 

Will people fly to Hawaii to sail on the POAm? Doubtful...if people are even going to go to Hawaii, then look for them to fly there and stay in one location. If the other lines can keep the West Coast/Hawaii trips lower, then those may become the option of choice for people to visit Hawaii. Fly into a major city like LA or San Francisco (where airfares will be lower) and then sail over instead of paying the higher costs of round trips to Hawaii.

 

The Pride of America will be faced with the higher costs of the American wage, higher supply costs in Hawaii, no casino and now the prospect of their passenger base dwindling because of high airfare.

 

I am now more convinced than ever before that NCL-A will fold by the end of the year and the Pride of America will be reflagged into the International fleet. I look for NCL to use the "Norweigan Lei" (as I refer to the reflagged POAm) to sail 10 and 11 day Hawaii-Fanning Island trips or even begin NCL's own West Coast/Hawaii trips. At least the Fanning Island trips would be different and may entice people to pay the extra to fly to Hawaii.

 

This obviously doesn't bold well for Hawaii whether its a cruise trip or an airplane one. In fact since NCL has contracts with certain airlines for set fares, it may make going to Hawaii on NCL even more attractive. Since the cost of ship fuel has gone up for ships too, it means that to remain profitable the cost will go up from the West Coast traveling as well and any one flying to these ports will also be hit with increased costs. The 10-11 trips to Fanning Island were not wildly popular and were highly discounted. given that NCL can make much more money re-tasking the ship to Europe which the cruise fares are holding very high, I think if the are to abandoned the Hawaii run, they will leave. So Hawaii has a choice. If it wants to keep its international visitors and just allow the relatively few ships that come from the West Coast or allow gambling on the ship that is left and tax it. My current bet is that you are wrong and the NCL ship will remain US Flagged through 2010 at least. My crystal ball is at least as good as yours.

[anthk333]

As for the TAs that don't bring up the subject' date=' I'm guessing that they don't want to scare anyone from booking the RTs.[/quote']

 

Until a ruling comes out one way or another, there is nothing to say.

 

My weird travel analogy to this would be that anyone wanting to fly a US airline that is suffering from the fuel crisis (in other words all US airlines except for perhaps WN with their fuel hedges) would have to be warned that if they book 6 months out they should be aware that the airlines will cut more schedules or even may not be around.

[DAGVBSB]

This obviously doesn't bold well for Hawaii whether its a cruise trip or an airplane one. In fact since NCL has contracts with certain airlines for set fares, it may make going to Hawaii on NCL even more attractive. Since the cost of ship fuel has gone up for ships too, it means that to remain profitable the cost will go up from the West Coast traveling as well and any one flying to these ports will also be hit with increased costs. The 10-11 trips to Fanning Island were not wildly popular and were highly discounted. given that NCL can make much more money re-tasking the ship to Europe which the cruise fares are holding very high, I think if the are to abandoned the Hawaii run, they will leave. So Hawaii has a choice. If it wants to keep its international visitors and just allow the relatively few ships that come from the West Coast or allow gambling on the ship that is left and tax it. My current bet is that you are wrong and the NCL ship will remain US Flagged through 2010 at least. My crystal ball is at least as good as yours.

 

 

You know that I have long been a proponent of NCL attempting to get Hawaii to allow gambling on the ship. Ever since the launch of NCL-A, the no gambling laws have put the Pride ships at a disadvantage. NCL-A is forced to pay the higher US wages, meet costlier US shipping regulations and crew training, and still keep rates competitive with other cruise lines. At least the gambling would allow NCL a little help.

 

You are right.... Hawaii does need to look at their gambling laws. Even if they pass a law that allows gambling 10 miles off shore it would help.

 

What if NCL's contracted airlines go belly up?? Those "locked in" fares are meaningless on airlines that don't fly. Also, what if they cut the flights that NCL has bought seats on? Delta, Continental, Northwest, American are all in serious financial trouble and all are airlines that NCL uses.

 

It is my understanding that those who book airfare through the cruise line are a small percentage of total passenger load. It is those who do not (and in some cases, will not) book airfare through NCL that will be lost if airfare continues to rise. It is also doubtful that NCL will have enough reserved air seats if everyone on a cruise decides to pick up air through NCL.

 

Another question is how many people who have booked an NCL-A cruise for late 2008 or 2009 are now cancelling because the airfare increases are now higher than the cancellation penalties?

 

I have seen at least two news reports in the last week predicting gloom and doom for the Hawaii tourism industry due to higher costs.

[DAGVBSB]

Until a ruling comes out one way or another, there is nothing to say.

 

My weird travel analogy to this would be that anyone wanting to fly a US airline that is suffering from the fuel crisis (in other words all US airlines except for perhaps WN with their fuel hedges) would have to be warned that if they book 6 months out they should be aware that the airlines will cut more schedules or even may not be around.

 

Exactly...most compaines are not going to let you know they are closing up shop because of fear of additional lost business. I live in Columbus, Ohio... the home of the worst case example of this... Skybus Airlines. Skybus made the decision to shut down at a board meeting at noon. They decided the shutdown would occur at midnight. Even the local major newspaper (The Columbus Disgrace...err Dispatch) knew about the pending shutdown but didn't tell. Skybus continued to fly passengers with the last flight from Columbus to Ft. Lauderdale at 10:00 p.m.. Those passnegers got to Ft. Lauderdale and were told that their return tickets were no longer good. The Columbus Dispacth even put a reporter on the plane to get people's reactions when they discovered that they were stranded in Ft. Lauderdale!

 

So don't plan on compaines letting anyone know of their impending plans until it happens.

 

Like I have said all along, it is my opinion that the Pride of America will not be sailing after this year, but NCL will continue selling berths aboard her into 2010 until the decision is announced. Those people booking the Pride of America now are taking a chance.... just the same as those booking the West Coast to Hawaii cruises on the other lines and just like those booking flights months in advance. Someone is going to get stuck.

[smeyer418]

Y...

 

 

 

I have seen at least two news reports in the last week predicting gloom and doom for the Hawaii tourism industry due to higher costs....

 

This isn't the first time that Hawaiian tourism has been a disaster. At one point Japan was providing more tourists than the US. Then the Japanese economy tanked. They might want to consider the Chinese but the Chinese like to gamble when they are out of the country.

$150 per barrel oil will wreak havoc on more than the cruise and air lines.

[DAGVBSB]

$150 per barrel oil will wreak havoc on more than the cruise and air lines.

 

On that we can agree.

[Cruisin' Chick]

Until a ruling comes out one way or another, there is nothing to say.

 

My weird travel analogy to this would be that anyone wanting to fly a US airline that is suffering from the fuel crisis (in other words all US airlines except for perhaps WN with their fuel hedges) would have to be warned that if they book 6 months out they should be aware that the airlines will cut more schedules or even may not be around.

 

A news report I saw the other day predicted that at least one more major airline will close shop this year. Not doubting this at all. I imagine more people will be making their travel arrangements with this in mind, if they're smart.

[Cruisin' Chick]

You know that I have long been a proponent of NCL attempting to get Hawaii to allow gambling on the ship. Ever since the launch of NCL-A, the no gambling laws have put the Pride ships at a disadvantage. NCL-A is forced to pay the higher US wages, meet costlier US shipping regulations and crew training, and still keep rates competitive with other cruise lines. At least the gambling would allow NCL a little help.

 

You are right.... Hawaii does need to look at their gambling laws. Even if they pass a law that allows gambling 10 miles off shore it would help.

 

What if NCL's contracted airlines go belly up?? Those "locked in" fares are meaningless on airlines that don't fly. Also, what if they cut the flights that NCL has bought seats on? Delta, Continental, Northwest, American are all in serious financial trouble and all are airlines that NCL uses.

 

It is my understanding that those who book airfare through the cruise line are a small percentage of total passenger load. It is those who do not (and in some cases, will not) book airfare through NCL that will be lost if airfare continues to rise. It is also doubtful that NCL will have enough reserved air seats if everyone on a cruise decides to pick up air through NCL.

 

Another question is how many people who have booked an NCL-A cruise for late 2008 or 2009 are now cancelling because the airfare increases are now higher than the cancellation penalties?

 

I have seen at least two news reports in the last week predicting gloom and doom for the Hawaii tourism industry due to higher costs.

 

If push comes to shove, I would think that gambling may be on the ballot in Hawaii sometime soon. I remember when going to school in Missouri, gambling was illegal there (even to the point that a supermarket game was declared illegal:confused: ; fortunately that was after my housemates and I won $25). That was in the 70s. Since then, you can buy lottery tickets (I think Powerball...I'm not up on lotto games) there. I think even the blue laws have been eliminated. So laws can be changed.

[Cruisin' Chick]

This is crazy. Anytime I talk about cruiseships with anyone, I mention this issue. I did this yesterday when someone told me they are going on a land vacation in Hawaii. I told her about my Hawaiian cruise and how the CPB revisions may change any future ones.

[SeattleCruiselover]

This is crazy. Anytime I talk about cruiseships with anyone' date=' I mention this issue. I did this yesterday when someone told me they are going on a land vacation in Hawaii. I told her about my Hawaiian cruise and how the CPB revisions may change any future ones.[/quote']

 

Good for you. We need to raise public awareness. It is the only way anything will happen.

[chasetf]

If push comes to shove' date=' I would think that gambling may be on the ballot in Hawaii sometime soon. I remember when going to school in Missouri, gambling was illegal there (even to the point that a supermarket game was declared illegal:confused: ; fortunately that was after my housemates and I won $25). That was in the 70s. Since then, you can buy lottery tickets (I think Powerball...I'm not up on lotto games) there. I think even the blue laws have been eliminated. So laws can be changed.[/quote']

Still sad to see governments trying to balance their budgets on gambling revenues.

 

All the lottos that were suppose to help schools have failed miserably.

[DAGVBSB]

Still sad to see governments trying to balance their budgets on gambling revenues.

 

All the lottos that were suppose to help schools have failed miserably.

 

In Ohio, it has been just the opposite. Our State is in serious financial trouble but the government and the people are still very much opposed to gambling in our state. Since 1998, there has been 7 issues on the ballot proposing different levels of gambling. (everything from slot machines at race tracks to boat casinos to full blown casinos.) Every time it has been voted down by a huge margin. The last one, in 2006, went down 65% against it. There is another issue on the ballot for this fall and early polls are showing 65-70% against it. Of course this one is stupid... they want to put ONE casino in ONE county between Columbus & Cincinnati and bar other casinos in the state...duh

 

We have a lottery that likes to pound its chest about how much money the schools get from it but as someone in education.... we sure don't see much!

[Cruisin' Chick]

The lottery was voted in by California voters in the 80s, I think. I remember that the ad agency I was working for at the time pitched for the account, but didn't get it. I once bought a ticket, scratched it off, didn't win anything, and didn't think it much fun like the commercials. A few times when the jackpot for the lotto was mucho big, people at work would go in and buy some tickets together, but we wouldn't win. So I would just wave them off and say I don't want to jinx them.

[Cruisin' Chick]

I heard that Arnold wants to borrow some of the $ from the California lottery to help fix the state budget.

 

To bring this back on topic, if Hawaii voters wanted to, they could pass a law to allow gambling on cruiseships in their waters. Maybe that would help the one remaining Pride ship. A major problem, though, is time.

[Barek]

We have a lottery that likes to pound its chest about how much money the schools get from it but as someone in education.... we sure don't see much!

States love to play musical chairs with the funding. In most states that use it, the lottery systems are sold to voters as having its revenue directed towards education. Which, the states all abide by that with no problems. But then, they generally reduce what the schools previously received from the state general fund by almost exactly what the schools get from the lottery. Net effect: the schools get roughly the same as they did before the lottery, and what the states saved in their general funds now gets re-allocated to pet projects of the elected officials.

 

But ... back to cruising ...

If push comes to shove' date=' I would think that gambling may be on the ballot in Hawaii sometime soon.[/quote']

To bring this back on topic' date=' if Hawaii voters wanted to, they could pass a law to allow gambling on cruiseships in their waters. Maybe that would help the one remaining Pride ship. A major problem, though, is time.[/quote']

I would be surprised if NCL hasn't at least tried to get this either through the Hawaiian state legislature or through having it as an item on a ballot in Hawaii. The fact that it's still not there, to me, suggests that there's organized opposition within the state to doing this. But, not being current on Hawaiian news, I could easilly be mistaken.

[DAGVBSB]

States love to play musical chairs with the funding. In most states that use it, the lottery systems are sold to voters as having its revenue directed towards education. Which, the states all abide by that with no problems. But then, they generally reduce what the schools previously received from the state general fund by almost exactly what the schools get from the lottery. Net effect: the schools get roughly the same as they did before the lottery, and what the states saved in their general funds now gets re-allocated to pet projects of the elected officials.

 

Don't get me started on School Funding in Ohio. In 1998, the Ohio Supreme Court ruled that the school funding system in Ohio was Unconstitutional and had to be changed. That change was going to cost the state billions of dollars and the legislature and Governor Taft simply refused to do anything about it. That left the Ohio Supreme Court in a bind... their only real option was to find the Governor and State Legislature in Contempt of Court. Instead they issued a new verdict that said what little the state had already done was enough and closed the case in 2004.

 

But back to the Hawaii issue.... I doubt the Hawaii Legislature would do anything about it. It is controlled by Conservative Republicans and they generally oppose all gambling issues. That leaves it to the voters and, to be honest, I don't think the Pride of America and NCL-America really mean that much to the people of Hawaii. I don't think they would even notice or bat an eye if and when NCL-America folds.

 

My guess is that Apollo is evaluating the Hawaii operations this month and next and if they don't see something that they like, they will decide to shut it down. I don't see them waiting until November or December for the decision.

 

Colin Veitch and James (Ohio NCL Cruiser who seems up on all of the NCL America workings) have said over and over that we will see NCL-America begin to turn a profit this summer with the loss of the POA and POH. I'm sure Apollo is watching too. Think about it... if NCL America loses money in June, July and August when the Pride of America is the ONLY ship sailing Hawaii at that time.... what hope is there that NCL-America will ever be profitable again. James and Colin have put the eggs in the basket......

[DAGVBSB]

Just saw a report on TV that said that travel agents are already reporting about a 20% loss of business since May 1. They did not break it down by location, but said that many customers are looking for vacation options closer to home.

 

It will be interesting to see what impact this will have on the cruise industry in a year. Many people already have their cruises booked for this year and will still go. It will be next year that cruises will suffer.

[SeattleCruiselover]

Just saw a report on TV that said that travel agents are already reporting about a 20% loss of business since May 1. They did not break it down by location, but said that many customers are looking for vacation options closer to home.

 

It will be interesting to see what impact this will have on the cruise industry in a year. Many people already have their cruises booked for this year and will still go. It will be next year that cruises will suffer.

 

I'm not surprised by this at all. Regular unleaded gas here is pushing $4.50 a gallon in many places.

 

I already have a 2009 cruise booked (on NCL, believe it or don't), but it leaves from YVR, so we will likely not cancel unless the fuel surcharge burden just becomes totally intolerable.