tidecat

John Heald's post on Facebook makes it sound like a Europe announcement is imminent: "And finally for today ( there is more to come including whats happening in Europe in 2024) we have the gorgeous Carnival Sunrise." Miracle's last Long Beach cruise is on 5/5/24, so Firenze could slide into Long Beach any time after that cruise ends on 5/8/24.

Part of the reason of the Costa by Carnival/Carnival Fun Italian Style concept is that it doesn't require a more expensive rebranding. Yes, some changes are being made, but Carnival isn't having to spend $200 Million like they did with the Sunshine/Destiny conversion. This is important since Carnival doesn't really have the financial flexibility to rebrand ships right now. The only thing that really is a bit of a head scratcher is not repainting the funnel even to the "throwback" Carnival design. Since Costa Luminosa had the same architect as most of Carnival's fleet (Joe Farcus), she required less work for rebranding. The decor on Luminosa is more in line with Carnival Spirit than Costa Firenze.

@At7Seas I think you're trying to read way too much into things by what Carnival has said or not said. First, if not most importantly, this will be a Carnival, not Costa, cruise. Those who sail on it will earn points towards Carnival's VIFP program, which was communicated at the onset. All communications have referred to the ship being crewed by a Carnival crew. "Costa by Carnival" has given way to "Carnival Fun Italian Style" which has been legally trademarked. Even the first few sailings were originally sold as sailings on Carnival Magic. Venezia and Firenze are also Vista-class ships like Carnival Vista, Carnival Horizon, and Carnival Panorama. There obviously is some flexibility on a ship that large, but ultimately all five ships have practically identical layouts. There are certain things to expect from every Carnival sailing. One of those is that the main dining rooms are complimentary (with a few select upcharge items). One specialty dining restaurant hasn't been completely revealed, although we know some things about it from the reveal Christine Duffy did in New York. At this point all of the alternative dining venues have been revealed; they are not huge departures from what is installed on the rest of Carnival's fleet, aside from replacing Blue Iguana Cantina with a Mexican-Italian fusion concept. Obviously Italian theming will never replace the experience of going to Italy. It's just that theming is now being deployed in the American market instead of the Chinese market. I suspect the names will be legally changed as the ships go into drydock to get any required hull maintenance and have the new livery applied. That was when Costa Luminosa became Carnival Luminosa. Costa Venezia was going to have to go to drydock anyway, as was Costa Firenze, which will still be in Costa service until January 2024. Even if CARNIVAL FUN ITALIAN STYLETM winds up being a failure, we're probably stuck with it until 2028-29 when Venezia and Firenze come up for drydock again.

If you can sign up for Allstate Rewards (not available in New York State) or AARP, you can get gift cards at a 10% discount.

I'm sure there's some value in having that space during New York sailaways, but Firenze isn't going to have that out of Looooooong Beach.

Go CCL (https://help.goccl.com/app/answers/detail/a_id/8841/~/carnival-venezia-(vx)-ship-features-and-public-areas) lists the following: Terrazza Carnevale - Outdoor Area Location: Deck 5 – aft Hours: hours are listed in the HUB App Exclusive use for guests occupying the Terrazza Carnevale staterooms during the day; open to all guests in the evening A terraced deck featuring comfortable sofas, private alcoves and Hot Tub Spas (2) At night, a chic rooftop bar under the stars Beverage Service ($)

I'd at least feature Bolt, given that by December it will be on three ships, especially the ones that will still command a premium because of how new they are.

The last sailing for Costa Firenze is a 14-night roundtrip sailing from Savona, Italy on January 7, 2024. Even if drydock work doesn't start until February and takes six weeks, there will still be plenty of time to kill for a mid-May arrival in Long Beach.

Carnival Miracle's last Long Beach sailing (for now at least) is May 5-8, 2024. I would suspect Firenze would start May 12, 2024 and generally run 7-day cruises. Panorama does have some 6-day and 8-day cruises mixed in her program as well, so Firenze may have to do some of those just out of necessity. A Sunday/Thursday/Tuesday rotation could work as well, or even just a Thursday/Sunday rotation if Carnival wanted to offer shorter cruises. I think all of the open Costa bookings will sail as scheduled, especially since cruise lines don't typically change out crew during the holidays. The worst that could happen is that Firenze begins in June or July instead of May.

AIDAaura will leave the fleet in September. Costa Magica has had her registration changed from Italy to Madeira (which is an autonomous possession of Portugal).

There is a Mexican Riviera sailing on April 7, 2024 on Carnival Panorama. That sailing would be at sea on April 8 en route to Cabo San Lucas. The ship will be too far north, by a wide margin, to be in the path of the eclipse. https://www.accuweather.com/en/space-news/2024-total-solar-eclipse-in-us-canada/1167521/amp August 12, 2045, however, will be a much better time to be cruising to catch an eclipse, as the path of totality will include Tampa, Orlando, Fort Lauderdale, Freeport (Bahamas), the Dominican Republic, and Turks and Caicos.

The "Fun To Be Revealed" pretty much has to be the new Italian specialty restaurant with the show kitchen for baking bread.

And historically, cruise lines have operated with billions of dollars of debt on their balance sheet. While that debt may have been a fraction of what it is today, they were not exactly debt free.

Carnival got screwed by the change in the US Dollar relative to the Euro. That made the price per lower berth too high for Carnival. Had that not happened, Pinnacle certainly would have been built.

Just to give @jcoolsomehting to look forward to, when I did it on the Horizon, a lot of people at my table had the chicken and were raving about it. The steak is pretty good too.

I think the fleet will downsize, but capacity isn't necessarily going to be reduced: 2027/2028: +Newbuild 1, -Paradise, -Sunshine 2029: +Newbuild 2, -Elation, -Sunrise 2031: + Newbuild 3, -Spirit, -Radiance 2033: +Newbuild 4, -Pride, -Conquest 2035: +Newbuild 5, -Legend, -Glory 2037: +Newbuild 6, -Miracle, -Valor 2039: +Newbuild 7, -Luminosa, -Liberty 2040: +Newbuild 8, -Freedom, -Splendor Assuming the first seven are comparable to the Excellence class, total passenger capacity is going to be largely a push. Eventually Carnival will have to build 6,000+ passenger ships (lower berths; total capacity will likely push towards 8,000) or start replacing ships on a 1:1 basis.

$200 Million over 10 years, even allowing for around 100 days out of service (drydocks, etc.) is only $19 per person per day. I think the window to do that to the Spirit class has largely passed, but a $50-$75 Million renovation may still be viable. It also really makes sense only if you're not currently selling a high number of third or fourth passengers in a cabin, although I don't see a way to add more than 36-40 cabins to the Spirit class vessels.

Not spending $2-$3 Billion on newbuilds each year will make more money available for older ships. Carnival is still planning to spend $6.7 Billion over the next four fiscal years on non-newbuild capital expenditures per their latest SEC filing. Although based on Weinstein's comments, it seems like 2026 is the only completely "off" year for newbuilds, followed by "one or two" in the years following that. I would not be surprised if Carnival gets two newbuilds between 2027-2029. If I had to forecast the newbuild schedule for 2027-2030, I expect it would look like this: 2027 - Carnival Cruise Line (Carnival Elation and Carnival Sunshine retired late 2027/early 2028) 2028 - Holland America Line (Volendam and Zaandam retired); Princess Cruises (Grand Princess retired) 2029 - Carnival Cruise Line (Carnival Paradise retired; Conquest-class ship to replace Pacific Explorer) 2030 - P&O Cruises [UK] (Aurora retired if not sold off in 2023; Arcadia retired) The newbuild program after 2030 is going to have to be very aggressive company-wide given the sheer number of ships that were built between 1999-2005. Carnival's balance sheet is going to have to be healthy going into 2030.

Venezia and Firenze were always intended to be representations of their namesake cities - they will now do that for the American market instead of the Chinese market.

They actually have done so before. In 2018, Azamara bought Adonia, which last sailed under the Carnival Corporation umbrella as Adonia for P&O. Of course three years later Royal Caribbean sold Azamara and its fleet to Sycamore Partners, who operates Azamara today (and go on to purchase the former Pacific Princess).

Would Phoenix Reisen or TUI possibly be in the market for Costa's tonnage? In TUI's case, it might be easier to convert a 100,000 gross ton ship than anything Royal Caribbean could hand down.

Pacific Explorer was actually built in 1997 as Dawn Princess, not in 2007. I'd probably give her another 4-5 years since that refurbishment was only done five years ago. AIDAaura should come up for drydock soon given she turns 20 next year. It's also the last in AIDA's fleet that is smaller than the Sphinx class. It's also a good size for a secondary operator. Aurora would certainly be a justifiable disposal as P&O has added two Excel ships and roughly 10,400 lower berths (Iona, Arvia), while the two ships disposed of in 2019-2020 have less than 4,000 lower berths (Oriana, Oceana)

You might get $15 million in scrap for Elation or Paradise. Then there's the cost of moving Miracle over from Long Beach, possibly another ship in Miracle's place, and the cost of rebranding the Costa ship and getting it to the port of your choosing. That's likely a money loser. Deliziosa would certainly have to come over to replace the second of Elation or Paradise, but that's the last Panamax (OG Panamax, not the new locks) ship on Costa's roster. No real benefit for a 1:1 swap of Sunshine for Fortuna or Magica, which is only a few years younger. Same would apply if you took a smaller P&O UK ship and gave it to Carnival.

There's also not much reason to increase supply in North America/Australia any further. Carnival Cruise Line and P&O Australia are or will soon be ahead of their pre-Covid capacity.

P&O UK's Aurora would make sense as the next cut, as P&O just took delivery of an Excel-class ship (Arvia). It is also the only ship they have built before 2005.