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Everything posted by tidecat

  1. Surprised it didn't happen back in 2020, but Fascination having the additional balconies probably made her somewhat viable. The Chinese cruise market just hasn't recovered.
  2. The bigger question for the short-term is whether the 3-day cruises will sail with a meaningful number of passengers given the current health protocols.
  3. The San Juan port was undergoing privatization in 2019. The maintenance needs were apparently extensive (up to $250 million, although that included Ponce as well. Then the pandemic happened, which allowed Carnival to exit San Juan as a homeport. Not sure about the status of any repairs or renovations, but this could just be a case of Carnival needing to fill an existing contractual obligation. Obviously since San Juan can't be driven to from the US mainland, that doesn't help. For what it's worth, Carnival Fascination is still listed as one of the ships on the search filters on Carnival's site. Are we sure Barbados and San Juan are really new additions? Did Carnival reacquire Carnival Fascination?
  4. I don't think it is - it's literally the only cruise ship in the state, so while not a huge part of Alabama tourism, neither the city nor state wants an empty cruise terminal. What is likely a bigger drag is that Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, and even southern part of Kentucky have lower vaccination rates than surrounding states (even Florida) - these are the customers who Carnival targets for sailing out of Mobile. The terminal being downtown doesn't allow for much space for things like pre-boarding testing, so switching to the "unvaccinated" protocols may not be an option. If children under 12 start getting vaccinated, I think you'll see bookings pick up - right now the capacity restrictions make it hard on families with young children. Having grown up in Mobile, I know quite a few people who took their families on the Fantasy prior to the shutdown. Locals alone can't fill the ship, but they do help.
  5. Could this be the landing spot for a Sunshined Costa Magica? We actually don't have that long before bookings should open if the "mid 2022" date is good.
  6. The ships that got contracts for Ida relief were already in service. Having food, linens, and other supplies to house up to 1500 people isn't feasible to maintain year round isn't a viable business plan. Carnival only got a few million for the Glory's charter - that wouldn't even cover a skeleton crew on a ship for a year.
  7. I'm hoping Hydrogen will catch on eventually. Right now it tends to work well when there are a limited number of destinations, as those points could serve for refueling (i.e., a ferry). If you go to https://energy.sandia.gov/programs/sustainable-transportation/hydrogen/fuel-cells/maritime-applications/ and download the report "Practical Application Limits of Fuel Cells and Batteries for Zero-Emission Vessels", the results for Liquid Hydrogen are quite encouraging. If you assume hotel load would essentially be half the electrical requirements, a vessel like Pride of Hull (pages 39-40) could theoretically go around 1,000 nautical miles between fill-ups. My first Cruise was not even 900 nautical miles, although I suspect it would take at least 3 times as much fuel to power the Carnival Sunshine as it would the Pride of Hull.
  8. I'm booked on a February sailing, do I need to pay it off to take advantage of any OBC offers?
  9. In addition to the billions of dollars in losses over the past 18 months, the stock has been heavily diluted. When Carnival is in a position to resume dividends, it may buy back stock instead. For fiscal years 2018-2019, Carnival had positive operating cash flow of about $5.5 Billion each fiscal year. It will take 2-3 years of results like that to get the debt back down to where it was during fiscal 2018-2019. I'm thinking Fiscal 2023 might be the earliest chance at pre-pandemic cash flow, and even then it may take until 2026 before dividends/buy backs may occur.
  10. Pre-sale prices are generally around 20% cheaper when the ship is in port. You can see the price differences when you go to book a treatment online. I have been on multiple sailings when the spa will have a flash sale towards the end of the cruise. These tend to be evening appointments. The CD will announce this if there are such openings.
  11. Basically, as part of the CSO, if you run a (95% or higher) vaccinated sailing, you can offer essentially cruising from 2019. There's no social distancing requirement either . Those rules were written before the Delta variant blew up, so how long lines like NCL can get away with it remains to be seen.
  12. Save yourself the trouble and pre-order bottled water from the Fun Shops: https://www.carnival.com/in-room-food-beverages/water/natural-spring-water--12-pack-SP4
  13. Surprised it's that short of a charter, to be honest. I guess things on the ground aren't so bad that this will require the ship for weeks on end.
  14. Sensation was last dry docked in January 2020, and presumably would go back in January 2023 - might not be a bad candidate for moving that up to 2022, especially if she has to cross the Atlantic to get work done. Paradise is scheduled for 10/1/21-10/22/21 so she is out of the running. Ecstasy was last serviced in October 2019 and would be due again in April 2022, so this is a good candidate. Elation hasn't carried a passenger since March 1, 2020 when she went to dry dock and came back to a shuttered world. Not a candidate.
  15. There's a decent possibility that Carnival may have one or more ships chartered by FEMA for hurricane recovery efforts. Any ships that would have been scheduled for service out of New Orleans would be obvious candidates.
  16. Never, unless if it becomes 100% tested at the port.
  17. New protocols likely had an effect too.
  18. I think more likely we'll have a generic horizon for being vaccinated, whether it's the initial does (or two-dose series) or a booster.
  19. A person can test positive up to 90 days after contracting the virus, even though the person may no longer be infectious - so even if they make a quick recovery, or never develop symptoms, they may need to get documentation of said recovery. I had a friend who couldn't return to work for a good two months after recovering because his workplace required a test from a lab that used a very sensitive (i.e, high number of cycles) PCR test; the test would pick up inert viral material even though he was not actually infections. I'm also not sure what the health questionnaire asks about recent exposure or illness - probably worth a call to Carnival to make sure there aren't any "gotchas" for coming down with the virus so close to sailing. I'd hate for them to travel to the port and be turned away at the last minute. Since your friends are vaccinated, they can at least use an antigen test (see https://www.carnival.com/legal/covid-19-legal-notices/covid-19-guest-protocols) for more details. That should shorten the turnaround time, assuming they have no issues scheduling the test.
  20. I would expect Radiance bookings to be a little stronger, because it's not like someone booked on a sailing out of Long Beach can drive a few hours to another port, especially since San Diego was scuttled.
  21. Yes, that is correct. Puerto Rico will not allow the unvaccinated to disembark, but at least they will allow the ship to still call there (at least as of 8/19/21). The same is no longer true for The Bahamas.
  22. The Florida law was struck down by the courts, at least for now. Norwegian sued the Florida Surgeon General's office, and has been given an injunction that prevents Florida from enforcing it. Florida is of course appealing it.
  23. I doubt we'll see any changes before November 1. The CSO requires allocating cabins for quarantined passengers. Ramping up from 70% of double occupancy to 104% (or more) of double occupancy will also require increasing the size of the crew complement for guest-facing positions such as bartenders, kids clubs, and waitstaff - not really sure that's possible right now if crew are restricted on sharing cabins.
  24. One or more of the following conditions: 1) Someone from the previous sailing tested positive within 5 days of disembarkation (Local health departments will ask about international/interstate travel). 2) At least 0.1% of crew are positive (this could be as few as 2 crew members on Mardi Gras) 3) At least 0.2% of passengers are positive (cutoff will be somewhere between 4-8 passengers)
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