HappyInVan

You're the one who is in favour of keeping the old ships, You cited those examples. I'm asking you if HAL customers would be willing to sail on those ships? Certainly, we would be happy to sail on the modernized Crystal ships, but that's at a different price point. No?

Suggest that you sail on P&O Australia or Elation/Sunshine before you recommend them to HAL customers. Yes, HAL could run down the ships till they have to be sent to the scrapyard. But, what would it do to HAL's brand image? What about the suites without hot water? The clogged toilets. You can't fix those problems with just work on the decor. Look at the old world elegance on the Noordam. Or the contemporary artwork on the Pinnacle ships. HAL should command a premium price from $$$ customers. HAL's forte has been comfort and service in an upmarket setting. HAL's brand value is greater than the value of all its ships. Vessels can be replaced or modernized. But the value of a brand had been built up over decades. And, a loss of brand image requires years to repair. The reality is that new investments generates higher cruise fares. Lower cruise fares means insufficient money to upkeep the ships. Karma! I hope that you see the difference between a pro and an amateur?

No, I wouldn't sail with P&O Australia or Carnival. Sorry. Have you? Actually, the article saïd that ... "As part of Crystal’s new vision, the ship is seeing a full update of its public areas and staterooms, as well as a reduction in its passenger capacity – from the current 1,070 to just 740 guests." So, the modernized ships are quite different from the old. So, a modernized HAL ship would be quite different from the old, and require a lot of work and $$$. Have you ever sailed on the Rotterdam class ships?

Right. The Crystal ships underwent a major major rebuild for the new owners. Not sure if HAL is willing to spend months of drydock work on the old ships... https://cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/2023/05/crystal-serenity-enters-drydock-ahead-of-ak-debut/ Assuming that the hull is salvageable. Of course, New Crystal is in a different price level from HAL.

As I recall, heidi13 mentioned that the level of insurance coverage would be lower. Of course, some brands are running old ships. However, the cruise quality would be quite different from HAL. Sorry, you won't get me on one of these ships. The reality is that HAL can't justify recertifying and modernizing the old ships on the prices they currently charge in Alaska and the Caribbean. Possibly, HAL could keep on or two of the old ships in service for WC etc. But, a new ship with a modern design would be more appealing and generate more $. They are no freebies. Invest more and earn more. Or invest less and earn less.

Thanks for your opinion. Recently, we heard from a former shipmaster about why it becomes impractical for first tier brands to continue using their old ships. The cost of re-certifying the hull against metal fatigue becomes prohibitive under current insurance requirements. I hope that you can see the differences between a pro and an amateur? I'm sure that you know why the mid-price market ($500-$700 pp) is important. Whilst CCL is cash strapped, there is plenty of capital available for good ideas. HAL/CCL could accept a minority partner (Norwegian/Saudi national fund) for a project investing in medium-size ships. Interestingly, NCL has Oceania while RCL has Silversea. Once the project is successful, there is the potential to expand. MSC Explora is so optimistic that they plan to have 6 luxury ships by 2028. Here's the benefit to CCL. They could eventually sell their interest in the project for billions. Immediately paying down a chunk of debt. Management is a difficult job. Senior managers have to stay focused on the future even during a crisis. It is important to stay alive. But, the company needs to understand where it needs to be in 5 years time. I hope you see the difference between a pro and an amateur?

Just so. I fear that it is too late for HAL. It takes 3-5 years to launch a ship of a new design. Should CCL/HAL wait till 2026 to rebuilt; all of the R and V ships will be gone or on the chopping board by the time that one replacement can be launched. IMHO, a strategic mistake. Of course, the whole house of cards would come tumbling down if there's another vaccine requirement or mask mandate. Still strategic mistakes tend to be enduring and possibly fatal.

CCL is going to need all of its Golden Age profits to pay for the $2b(?) in interest. Then, pay down the debt. Here in the HAL forum, there is some concern that HAL is not performing. That there might be drastic changes in the future. Hopefully for the better!!! In the meantime, I expect the pax to be recipients of good deals; with a little patience.

The hypothesis works fine for me in real life! 😄 BTW, the real comparison is between the prices in 2019 and 2023, after inflation. To quote you "As far as Revenue per passenger per day Q4 2023 Full Year 2023 Q4 2019 Full Year 2019 Passenger Fares 148.73 153.91 135.33 151.09 Onboard 79.29 82.34 64.83 67.81 As far as some expense categories per passenger per day Food 14.19 14.61 11.17 11.60 Fuel 23.52 22.40 15.27 16.73 total operational 153.77 156.64 131.19 138.26" So, cruise fare (average full year) is the same while operational costs is up 12%,. Bearing in mind that they have made cuts in quality and service in order to reduce costs. What's really disappointing is that CCL isn't fully booked for 2024, after the slew of cheap deposits ($1/$25/$99). According to post 18... "He reported two thirds of all staterooms for 2024 are already sold and said that full profitability will occur in 2026 as debt is significantly reduced." Bearing in mind that FP is due 3 months in advance. That means the first quarter is already paid up for 95% capacity. Therefore, the booking for the last 3 quarters is just 57%. 🙄

I formed my conclusion based on results in the real world. I enjoyed three 2023 HAL cruises in suites purchased as last minute deals. Much savings. Muchos Garcias HAL. 😄 Basically, a number of people used multiple $1-deposits as place-holders. Cancelling the ones they don't intend to make FP at the last moment. Leaving HAL with serious vacancies after FP. Requiring drastic price cuts, promotions and cheap upgrades. As I said earlier this year, HAL used $1-deposits to fill its bookings. Other brands offered as much as 40% discounts upfront. No surprise that I was able to eventually sail for 40% less than HAL's retail price. Any hotel or ship can fill its rooms if they offer prices low enough. The fact that CCL has only been able sell its rooms at a 2023 price just 4% above 2022 says its all. CCL has only been able to recover the cost of general inflation (4%) during the post-covid recovery. 🙄

I suppose that they can always launch another $1-deposit offer.

The problem are the prices of the cruise fare. Having exploited the potential of selling HIA for extra income, CCL still needs 20% higher fares. Without the right prices, no reason to order new ships or upgrade old ships.

Grasp! They still lost money despite the current high prices??? I guess that they are recovering nicely.

Glacier Bay is a national park. National Park Services controls traffic into the bay. https://www.nps.gov/glba/index.htm For cruise ships, the fees provide one important benefit. A pair of park rangers will board the ship at the entrance to the bay, and set up shop in the Crows Nest. They will give a talk in the World Stage, and answer questions. In addition, a ranger may be present on the bridge and give a running commentary during the day trip into the bay. As well as call out wildlife sights.

Note that the SS suites on the Nieuw Statendam have shallow balconies. The only way to fully recline is to turn the lounger sideways...

Why is it important for HAL to announce a revised itinerary ASAP? First, a Cape of Good Hope diversion is going to use a lot more fuel. Second, resupply in Africa is going to be more difficult and expensive... “The Cape of Good Hope route reduces an Asia-Europe trip’s effective capacity by 25%, according to analysts at UBS.” https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/19/houthi-attacks-in-red-sea-maersk-begins-rerouting-via-southern-africa.html Third, HAL needs to do a headcount in order to crunch the numbers. The Cape of Good Hope diversion is the main option. But, are there enough pax to make it viable? Does it make sense for HAL to offer generous terms to cancel the cruise at Singapore? It gets more complicated once pax board in Florida. Or, HAL could hope for the best. Surprise the pax in March with a big announcement! You signed the Terms and Conditions!!

Let's walk it through. Z leaves FLL on Jan 3, in 2 weeks. Reaches Singapore on March 23. Then, a decision has to be made about the next segment. Assuming that the Middle East is no-go; both Persian Gulf and Red Sea are still hot. The ship might proceed to Colombo, then make a run towards the East Coast of Africa. Cape of Good Hope is latitude 34' South. So, the ship will be in Cape Town at the beginning of the Southern winter. The Southern Hemisphere's winter solstice is in June. Any idea what winter ocean conditions are in that region? The straight line distance between Colombo and Cape Town is 5k miles. So 12 days sailing. That's a long ocean voyage unless you get a break in the Seychelles or Madagascar. Then, not many cruise ports along West Africa's coast. Any requirements for disease vaccinations? The bottom line is that you'll spend a month bypassing the Suez. Arriving in Gibraltar around about the scheduled day of the original itinerary, having bypass the Middle East and Mediterranean. Then, completing the voyage to FLL. The pax on just the Pacific and Asian segments are fine. The problem for pax sailing on from Singapore (or embarking/disembarking in Dubai) is that the ship sails in two weeks from Florida. So, a quick decision is necessary if you have Cancellation Protection. IMO, HAL HQ has contingency plans for a Suez closure. In the last few days, they've been busy confirming the viability of ports and supplies. Likely to announce a revised itinerary before the Jan 3rd departure. Good luck.

Actually, this would be a very drastic change in the itinerary. Wonder if visas would be required in some African counties? Pax should be informed before FP, giving them the option to cancel without penalty. That would be January, 2024.

The industry needs to organize in order to adapt. Observe what MSC is doing. They have 200k ton ships. You have low prices, lots of entertainment and the wow factor, if you don't mind the crowds. They have a new brand 'Explorer' running mid-size luxury cruises. The luxury market is booming and very profitable if your product is popular. Eventually, they can run a lower price version of the mid-size ships if the growth opportunity is there. CCL needs to reorganize its brands. Carnival for pax interested in cheap and cheerful. Princess for pax wanting something better. HAL for pax interested in destinations and service quality; mid-size ships. There will be something for everyone. But, don't expect HAL to deliver the experience you like at Carnival prices.

See this... https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/britain-says-royal-navy-ship-124533615.html

Hi, First time on MSC. I've just made FP, and booked 3xspecialty restaurants + show. When should I book the date and times? Thanks.

nOt a surprise. The entire region is a conflict zone. Will turn hot from time to time.

Back on topic. A new ship design with a Food Hall concept would be popular today. The MDR was a quasi-religious occasion on the Good Ship Titanic. Back then, anyone of consequence would attend the dining room social. To see and be seen! Today, we're more relaxed. HAL's pax of tomorrow may still be seniors. But, they're different from the seniors of yesteryear. Times change.

Thanks. Much appreciated. 😄

Currently, a number of small operators are adding medium Next Gen ships to their fleet. They're investing in the future, not running their current ships into the ground. For example, MSC has started the Explora brand with new 60k ton ships. This is what HAL needs to regain its positioning as a destinations and service company. Of course, without the waterfalls, fine dining and cognac. https://www.cruisecritic.com/cruise/explora/explora-i At this time, HAL is selling inside cabins for C$100/pp per day. Competing with the big ships with better economies of scale. IMO, this is not sustainable.