Summit Sep. 04 to Bermuda and hurricane Katia

[C 2 C]

We have been following the impact of Irene on Summit's cruise to Bermuda with special interest because we are on the next sailing. The latest news is not good if Katia develops as predicted.

 

http://www.theweatherspace.com/news/TWS-08_29_2011_longrangekatia.html

 

Hurricane Katia will be about the size of Texas, much smaller than Irene was..... this will rapidly become a Hurricane, reaching Category Two in a couple days and shooting to Category Three and Four fast after day five.

[C 2 C]

Today's update:

 

Weather.com forecasters Dr. Rick Knabb, and Kevin Roth say Katia is no threat to land for the next several days, but will very likely become a hurricane by Wednesday or Thursday night. Hurricane models are predicting the system could reach the longitude of the Leeward Islands this weekend when meteorologists say we may be looking at a Category 3 hurricane with winds over 110 mph.

from:

http://www.newjerseynewsroom.com/science-updates/hurricane-watch-tropical-storm-katia-is-next-threat

[Andy]

Thanks Arno - Are you on the next Summit sailing ?

[C 2 C]

Thanks Arno - Are you on the next Summit sailing ?

 

Hi Andy:

 

Yes we are planning a B2B Bermuda followed by Quebec. The question becomes whether the weather will interfere with our itinerary. The ship is our destination but Summit's destination might be altered by Katia.

[jackdiamond]

I believe that she will be a strong cat. 3 by Sunday; and, she may even strenghten after that. Also, I believe that her geographical area will be about the size of Texas.

However, and I hope I am correct, I believe that there is only about a 10% chance of a direct hit on Bermuda, although a brushing by this system would be significant. Also, I believe that there is a 45% chance that her destination will be the Atlantic graveyard.

[jackdiamond]

I am not certain of the aforesaid, but I believe that the moderator has requsted that weather predictions be posted elsewhere; hence, I will post no further predictions hereon unless we are advised to the contrary. Anyhoo, good luck to those sailing while Katia is doing her thing.

[jt1120]

Keep in mind that the waters near Bermuda are cooler than they are in the Caribbean where the storm is currently, hence the opportuity fior the storm to weaken.

 

This time of the year is not a good time to cruise to Bermuda. Way too prone for a storm to come through, unlike earlier in the season. They could delay the arrival to the island by a day or two, and cut the visit time short as a result. Then again, if it was me, heck, I'm on a cruiseship instead of at the office. Does it get any better?

 

I've lived through a bunch of hurricanes and I can tell you from first hand, they are no picnic. I feel for anyone impacted by these storms, and especially if you were on a cruiseship. Now THAT would be a bumpy ride!

[C 2 C]

Keep in mind that the waters near Bermuda are cooler than they are in the Caribbean where the storm is currently, hence the opportunity for the storm to weaken.

 

 

 

I'm not sure what Celebrity will decide to do with Summit's itinerary. Katia is still in the Atlantic and most computer generated tracks take it to Bermuda and Atlantic Canada. Although much smaller than Irene, it seems that it will me much stronger.

 

http://www.cfnews13.com/article/news/2011/august/303845/Katia-could-become-hurricane-later-today

[C 2 C]

The latest computer model from the national hurricane center,

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/143414.shtml?tswind120?large#contents

[jackdiamond]

I still believe that there is only about a 10% chance of a major impact on Bermuda, probably about Sept 8-9. However, given the strength of this system even a brushing will be significant. Nevertheless, I believe that it will eventually die in the Atlantic graveyard.

[C 2 C]

According to the experts paid to do the prognosticating:

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Tropical Storm Katia

Tropical Storm Katia continues its long trek across the Atlantic Ocean today, and is expected to arrive at a position several hundred miles north of the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Monday. At this time, it appears unlikely that the islands will receive tropical storm-force winds from Katia. Satellite images show that Katia is a well-organized storm with plenty of heavy thunderstorms. The storm has good upper-level outflow channels to the north and south, is under light wind shear, and is traversing warm waters, so it should be able to overcome any dry air problems by Thursday and intensify into a hurricane. It is looking less likely that Katia will affect land. Dr. Bob Hart's Historical Tropical Cyclone Probability web page suggests shows that tropical storms in Katia's current position have an 11% chance of hitting North Carolina, a 12% chance of hitting Canada, a 5% chance of hitting Florida, and a 62% chance of never hitting land. It will be two more days before our computer models will be able to assess the threat to land, though, as Katia is currently still very far out at sea

[burrma]

According to the experts paid to do the prognosticating:

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Impressed how well you are monitoring it; we are on Norweigan Gem and also concerned.

[C 2 C]

Impressed how well you are monitoring it; we are on Norweigan Gem and also concerned.

 

I guess we are still neighbours!

 

Perhaps we can race to Bermuda, touch land, take a few pics and return early without as much as a bumpy ride.

 

The nearly unpredictable track seem to have curved more to the mainland.

[burrma]

I guess we are still neighbours!

 

Perhaps we can race to Bermuda, touch land, take a few pics and return early without as much as a bumpy ride.

 

The nearly unpredictable track seem to have curved more to the mainland.

 

 

Monitoring the same site and think all we will get is high winds , and 60% chance of rain; bring a rain coat. Newspaper in Bermuda aren't very alarmed about it; not preparing but maybe this is common for them.

Will wave to you as we travel side by side.

[jt1120]

Here is FLA we are blessed with some incredible meteorologists who have for the most part called them all pretty well since I've been here (11 years). Right now they still feel that it will stay in the Atlantic and hook north. If that is the case, I'm guessing that Bermuda will get some of the impact. It just depends on when the storm turns. Hold your breath.

[jackdiamond]

Here is FLA we are blessed with some incredible meteorologists who have for the most part called them all pretty well since I've been here (11 years). Right now they still feel that it will stay in the Atlantic and hook north. If that is the case, I'm guessing that Bermuda will get some of the impact. It just depends on when the storm turns. Hold your breath.

I am also in SWFL; and, I agree with your observations. Vis-a-vis Bermuda, I hope for those on this cruise that there is no impact; and, I believe that that will be the case, with the exception of a brushing which could be somewhat disrupting. However, we must keep in mind that it is really too early to tell.

[Stargateman]

I hope stormpulse forecast models are wrong, it shows that on Wed Katia Category 3 is starting to take a pretty aggressive turn towards the W - WNW pointing towards the East Coast. By the looks of the forecast models Bermuda should be OK if the models are correct. I know it is to early to have an accurate prediction, I hope it stays at sea. :eek:

[C 2 C]

By the looks of the forecast models Bermuda should be OK if the models are correct. I know it is to early to have an accurate prediction, I hope it stays at sea. :eek:

 

 

 

Katia now looks more like a threat to our return to Bayonne rather than to Bermuda itself.

[C 2 C]

The last image before we board in a few hours:

 

[jakeil7]

Maybe you will get a bonus day out of this storm. Always look on the bright side, right? :)

[Beyondships]

Over on the NCL boards they are saying that Norweigian Gem is not going as scheduled to Bermuda but has been re-routed to the Bahamas.

[jackdiamond]

Over on the NCL boards they are saying that Norweigian Gem is not going as scheduled to Bermuda but has been re-routed to the Bahamas.

I am surprised. I doubt that Celebrity will change their itinerary.

[jackdiamond]

I am surprised. I doubt that Celebrity will change their itinerary.

Also, this morning Jeff Masters suggests no significant impact for Bermuda.

[Granny DI]

JUst got off the Summit a few hours ago. The cruise was amazing...we got 4 days in Bermuda...no rain and only high trade winds. Scuba/snorkeling was cancelled because of the winds. We were the only cruise ship at The Dockyard, beaches were empty. The surf was beautiful. Most of us were concerened with getting to the airport this morning...piece of cake...30 minutes from ship to gate!

[DinaS]

JUst got off the Summit a few hours ago. The cruise was amazing...we got 4 days in Bermuda...no rain and only high trade winds. Scuba/snorkeling was cancelled because of the winds. We were the only cruise ship at The Dockyard, beaches were empty. The surf was beautiful. Most of us were concerened with getting to the airport this morning...piece of cake...30 minutes from ship to gate!

 

We were told (on the NCL Gem) that the beaches were closed and that the ferries stopped running during Katia. Is that true? Our captain told us that it was lucky we didn't go to Bermuda because of this. We were supposed to be there Wednesday through Friday, but instead we ended up doing the (less expensive) Florida and Bahamas itinerary.