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Buying Carnival RCL NCLH stock to get Shareholder Benfit OBC for Australasian crusers..

amatuercruiser
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bvm49

bvm49

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I bought my shares 8 years ago in June 2012 for US$35.47 with ANZ online. They are now down to what I paid then (although I am really ahead as our exchange rate was around parity with the US then). In that time I have done about 20 cruises with Princess/P&O UK and have always received OBC - often received US$250 per cruise. The total OBC is now much more than the cost of the shares plus I have received dividends as well.

 

I understand that the shares did drop to around US$18 straight after the Costa Concordia went down but that was prior to my share purchase.

 

By the way I also bought RCL shares back in 2012 for around the same price. As they pay higher dividends their share price is now US$90. Until recently I found it difficult to get the OBC; but they have now changed their rules; so I have always got it in the last year.

 

Both shares of course have reached levels higher than at present.

 

I trade the stock market regularly but only bought these cruise line shares to get the OBC which I can still take as cash (on Princess only). This has been one of the best financial decisions I have ever made.

 

Brian

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amatuercruiser

amatuercruiser

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45 minutes ago, bvm49 said:

I bought my shares 8 years ago in June 2012 for US$35.47 with ANZ online. They are now down to what I paid then (although I am really ahead as our exchange rate was around parity with the US then). In that time I have done about 20 cruises with Princess/P&O UK and have always received OBC - often received US$250 per cruise. The total OBC is now much more than the cost of the shares plus I have received dividends as well.

 

I understand that the shares did drop to around US$18 straight after the Costa Concordia went down but that was prior to my share purchase.

 

By the way I also bought RCL shares back in 2012 for around the same price. As they pay higher dividends their share price is now US$90. Until recently I found it difficult to get the OBC; but they have now changed their rules; so I have always got it in the last year.

 

Both shares of course have reached levels higher than at present.

 

I trade the stock market regularly but only bought these cruise line shares to get the OBC which I can still take as cash (on Princess only). This has been one of the best financial decisions I have ever made.

 

Brian

Brian Thanks that is interesting back ground.

 

I am talking to both ANZ and Comsec to get a feel on what is the best way to buy some Carnival (CUK) shares on the London Stock Exchange very soon. LSE has the advantage of no need to fill out a USA tax with holding form

 

I think my main concern like a lot of people is when will this Cruise industry share price  decline BOTTOM.

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bvm49

bvm49

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2 minutes ago, amatuercruiser said:

Brian Thanks that is interesting back ground.

 

I am talking to both ANZ and Comsec to get a feel on what is the best way to but some Carnival (CUK) shares on the London Stock Exchange very soon. LSE has the advantage of no need to fill out a USA tax with holding form

 

I think my main concern like a lot of people is when will this Cruise industry share price  decline BOTTOM.

You can never pick the bottom🙃. Just buy when you feel comfortable.

Brian

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MicCanberra Holiday Sharing Rare

MicCanberra

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Agreed, if it is treated as a long term investment it doesn't really matter when you buy, only when you sell. Now is a good time as they are falling and most likely will fall a bit further but the average price of shares for the last 10 years is over $45, so think on that.

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amatuercruiser

amatuercruiser

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3 hours ago, MicCanberra said:

Agreed, if it is treated as a long term investment it doesn't really matter when you buy, only when you sell.

 

Mic How many cruises have you done in the last 1 year, 3 years or 5 years.

 

A 14 day Share holder OBC is worth $250 so if you averaged 3 fourteen day cruises a year you would get $750 OBC and $200 Carnival dividend.

 

Total yearly benefit $950.  from approximately $5000 investment in 100 Carnival shares.

 

If you use the Shareholder benefit 3 times a year on 14 day cruises the shares after 5 years are effectively FREE.

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MicCanberra

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3 hours ago, amatuercruiser said:

 

Mic How many cruises have you done in the last 1 year, 3 years or 5 years.

 

A 14 day Share holder OBC is worth $250 so if you averaged 3 fourteen day cruises a year you would get $750 OBC and $200 Carnival dividend.

 

Total yearly benefit $950.  from approximately $5000 investment in 100 Carnival shares.

 

If you use the Shareholder benefit 3 times a year on 14 day cruises the shares after 5 years are effectively FREE.

We paid around $4.2K AUD for our shares back in 2013. We cruise all lines but I can tell you that since buying the shares we have done 20 cruises on CCL ships and have collected over $2.5k over in OBC and $1.5k in dividends. 

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amatuercruiser

amatuercruiser

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On 2/27/2020 at 10:46 AM, MicCanberra said:

We paid around $4.2K AUD for our shares back in 2013.

 

What have you done now? Have you held on to your Carnival  or sold.

 

The current share price today is $31.85 approximately a 45% decline from $54 several moths ago.

 

A few weeks ago I said I thought $31 US was a fair price for Carnival Shares but now, I feel we are one public announcement away  from a Major Government banning public meetings for health reasons and then all cruise ships will just become empty stranded assets.

 

At that point I have no idea what happens to Cruise company Stock prices?

 

 

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MicCanberra

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7 hours ago, amatuercruiser said:

 

What have you done now? Have you held on to your Carnival  or sold.

 

The current share price today is $31.85 approximately a 45% decline from $54 several moths ago.

 

A few weeks ago I said I thought $31 US was a fair price for Carnival Shares but now, I feel we are one public announcement away  from a Major Government banning public meetings for health reasons and then all cruise ships will just become empty stranded assets.

 

At that point I have no idea what happens to Cruise company Stock prices?

Prices may go lower still as this situation develops, perhaps down to $20

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bvm49

bvm49

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As I only bought the shares for the free OBC, I would never sell them while I'm still cruising. Even when it was difficult to get OBC with RCL, I kept their shares as the price was going up (over 3 times the price I paid). My patience also paid off as they now allow OBC for every cruise on RCI and Celebrity😀.

Brian

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amatuercruiser

amatuercruiser

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6 hours ago, MicCanberra said:

Prices may go lower still as this situation develops, perhaps down to $20

 

I obviously want to pick the bottom of this Share price crash but..

 

I feel so sad for the whole cruise industry. Every time the share price drops and crashes  its  contracting the Cruise Industry.  Workers, Ships, Customers, Island Visits everything is effected.

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MicCanberra

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3 hours ago, bvm49 said:

As I only bought the shares for the free OBC, I would never sell them while I'm still cruising. Even when it was difficult to get OBC with RCL, I kept their shares as the price was going up (over 3 times the price I paid). My patience also paid off as they now allow OBC for every cruise on RCI and Celebrity😀.

Brian

That was one reason why I didn't buy their shares as the OBC was often deemed non-combinable. I am glad they have changed that and allow it with every cruise.

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MicCanberra Holiday Sharing Rare

MicCanberra

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2 hours ago, amatuercruiser said:

 

I obviously want to pick the bottom of this Share price crash but..

 

I feel so sad for the whole cruise industry. Every time the share price drops and crashes  its  contracting the Cruise Industry.  Workers, Ships, Customers, Island Visits everything is effected.

This is my guess and I have no hard facts or info to back my guess.

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The_Big_M

The_Big_M

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The major lines don't own their ships, but get them on finance (just like an interest only loan). They have few actual assets so their debt coverage ratio is very low. i.e. few assets, high debt. If operating income doesn't cover the loan expense, there is high risk of failure if the loans are called, and the share price falls last time around were due to that. Last time the ships continued to operate so there was less of an issue. This time there have already been more outages (cruises cancelled), and if travel bans or limitations increase, the risk is greater than the GFC to the cruise lines.

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amatuercruiser

amatuercruiser

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10 minutes ago, The_Big_M said:

The major lines don't own their ships, but get them on finance (just like an interest only loan). They have few actual assets so their debt coverage ratio is very low. i.e. few assets, high debt. If operating income doesn't cover the loan expense, there is high risk of failure if the loans are called, and the share price falls last time around were due to that. Last time the ships continued to operate so there was less of an issue. This time there have already been more outages (cruises cancelled), and if travel bans or limitations increase, the risk is greater than the GFC to the cruise lines.

 

Thanks that explains a lot.

 

Is there a ratio like earnings per share or any way of measuring how much indebtedness to bankruptcy each of the 3 companies can indure.

 

ie has RCL got a better chance of toughing this out compared to Norwegian or Carnival.

 

I assume from what you are saying, that  if the Coronavirus delay is long enough the cruise lines could go bankrupt and be sold up or is there a Chapter 12 mechanism that will help prevent being sold up.

 

I remember in the Global Financial crisis the USA GOV bought/bailed out  all the Wall street banks and also the USA Car Companies.

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