Carnival/HAL Sells Windstar (4 Merged Threads)

[RevNeal]

Deep down in my heart I have a good feeling that HAL will be around much longer. However, I have a strong feeling that HAL in about 10 years won't look like what we see now. There will be more ships that are the Vista type and bigger and fewer of the smaller ships. These smaller ships will do the excotic sailing while the larger ships will be place with the greastest passenger base. Another thing is, and I am sorry to mention this to the older passengers that sail HAL is that HAL will continue to get younger and younger. I remember when I first started sailing in the 80's average age of passenger on HAL was mid 80's, now it is in the 65's and getting younger. You will start to see more and more kids on HAL ships especially with new club HAL programs coming aboard the ships. HAL/Carnival will want to open the idea to cruising to families and the future generations of cruisers.

 

Interesting thoughts and I don't disagree, for the most part, with your analysis. By 2017 I would expect that the S-class ships will be departing the fleet (with, perhaps, the exception of one ship being kept for exotic itineraries where its smaller passenger compliment will actually be an asset); the R-class ships will be entering the last years of their operational viability, doing the long-range "Grand Voyages"; and the HAL fleet will be maxed out at about 16 or 17 ships. At least, that seems to be the rate at which the fleet is growing.

 

As for the passenger base ... well ... don't forget that, while older people die off current people will continue to age. So, while the lower end of the age range WILL continue to expand and grow to fill the available berths in the Vistas, Signatures, and whatever class of ship comes after them, There will ALWAYS be an abundance of senior citizens crusing HAL (and other cruise lines). Given the greying of the Western worlds, and particularly the United States, this cannot be helped. I don't know what the average age of HAL passengers is today ... I'm sure it varies from cruise to cruise and itinerary to itinerary (I've been on 7 day cruises where the average looked to be in the 50s, and I've been on 21 day cruises where the average appeared to be somewhere around 90 ... and I, in my late 40s, should have been in club HAL!) However, I'm sure that the presence of families and children will continue to increase ... and that's a good thing, for those families will grow older and the kids will grow up and become adults and will be the future HAL passengers! In 10 years I will be on the door step of 60 ... and I suspect that, on the average HAL cruise, I will still be somewhere on the lower end of "average" among my fellow passengers. :D

 

I feel sorry for the lost of WS but it might be a good move to help Carnival in the long road with the other brands that they control. I don't know why people feel Carnival is so bad. Remember before HAL was bought it was a family run business from the Netherlands. The family was dieing off and the remaining family members didn't want anything to do with the old HAL. If you really look back to when HAL was bought HAL was going towards the way of other lines. HAL bought Homes lines and Windstar, and decided to build two new ships. But other lines that decided to buy other ships went bankrupt, could HAL been going that way we wouldn't know because Carnival came along and bought HAL cancel the HAL's plan of two new ships and then building all the new builds they did. If Carnival didn't come along I could tell you that HAL might have ended up like, Regent, Commodore, Preimer. Lets not make judgements so fast, let time show us how this sale works out for WS and Carnival.

 

I, for one, don't think Carnival is a demon. Indeed, the purchase of Carnival is, indeed, the reason there is still a HAL. And I'm grateful for that. And, yes, I'm certain that the sale of WS makes good business sense. I'm just sad to see it happen ... and I fear it will kill WS (for some of the reasons I've sketched above).

[eroller]

The redeployment of the Windstar staff within the HAL fleet may be good for HAL, but it will spell disaster for Windstar. :(

 

 

 

I can't understand why you would think that? Windstar operated with a very polished European crew prior to becoming a part of Carnival/HAL, and there is no reason they can't do so again. If anything, Windstar has become less of a luxury line since being run by HAL with lower and more affordable per diems. Ambassador may decide to upgrade the experience and try to seek higher per diems. There are also many successful large and small cruise lines that somehow do VERY well without having an Indonesian crew like HAL. I see no reason why Windstar can't be one of them with the proper management and marketing in place.

 

Ernie

[hammybee]

Ah Revneal, you have a heart bigger than your great state.

 

Perhaps you have a mutual fund, pension plan, whole life policy,401K, IRA, ROTH or whatever. Fund managers invest other people's monies in markets with growth potential, balanced with the management of those companies within these markets, that can create and sustain momentum. And this often times requires the management of these companies to let go of unprofitable business ventures, despite the traditions associated with it.

 

What is so often viewed as corporate greed and/ or heartlessness is often sound business decisions, necessary to the survival of the business and a ROI to beneficial shareholders, people like you and me.

[RevNeal]

I can't understand why you would think that? Windstar operated with a very polished European crew prior to becoming a part of Carnival/HAL, and there is no reason they can't do so again. If anything, Windstar has become less of a luxury line since being run by HAL with lower and more affordable per diems. Ambassador may decide to upgrade the experience and try to seek higher per diems. There are also many successful large and small cruise lines that somehow do VERY well without having an Indonesian crew like HAL. I see no reason why Windstar can't be one of them with the proper management and marketing in place.

 

As is true with HAL, Windstar's current loyal following is, in part, due to the charm and character of service that the Indonesian and Philippine staff provide. Take away that staff and an important part of the product is also removed ... perhaps a critical part. Yes, HAL functioned well prior to the labor contacts which resulted in Indonesian and Philippine staffs ... but the vast majority of the Mariners love cruising with the Indonesian staff and, I dare say, most of us would not be comfortable with a sudden staff swap-out. Windstar's very loyal passenger base may well be the same. Now, granted, Windstar may replace them with staff that will make it work. But it's a big "if" to see if they can pull it off. Can they? Sure ... but given the "iffy" nature of this industry, and the touchy character of most passengers, I am not at all confident. I hope I am proven wrong.

[RevNeal]

Thank you for the compliment, Hammy. However, am I to gather that you believe me to have a big heart but no brain for business? Were you trying to be patronizing, or do you truly believe me to be utterly ignorant on matters of investment finance? :)

 

I think I've adequately articulated my reasons for fearing that the Windstar product will be harmed by this sale. Within the next couple of years we'll find out if I'm totally wrong. Again, I hope I am wrong; Windstar is a great product for those who want to take that kind of a cruise ... me among them ... and I hope it survives.

[rkacruiser]

I can't understand why you would think that? Windstar operated with a very polished European crew prior to becoming a part of Carnival/HAL, and there is no reason they can't do so again. If anything, Windstar has become less of a luxury line since being run by HAL with lower and more affordable per diems. Ambassador may decide to upgrade the experience and try to seek higher per diems. There are also many successful large and small cruise lines that somehow do VERY well without having an Indonesian crew like HAL. I see no reason why Windstar can't be one of them with the proper management and marketing in place.

 

Ernie

 

I think you are making an excellent point about the possibility of Ambassador upgrading the experience and increasing the per diems. I just received a Majestic America catalog and, while I didn't check every price listed for every cruise on their several vessels, the prices that I did check were quite high. For example, a cruise--as a single--on the Delta Queen, per diem, is more expensive than a world cruise on the Amsterdam.:eek:

[dougnewmanatsea]

Actually, my point had nothing directly to do with the particulars of that case, no was I making a direct relation between them. Rather, I was making a general reference (as my subsequent remarks within that post should have made abundantly clear): that sale failed; for different and unrelated reasons, I fear this one will too.

I think that is unnecessarily pessimistic. Of course, there is always the risk that it will fail, but it does not seem terribly likely. Just look at all the sales like this that have succeeded.

 

As is true with HAL, Windstar's current loyal following is, in part, due to the charm and character of service that the Indonesian and Philippine staff provide.

Why assume that they will move to staff from other countries?

 

Even if they do not literally keep the same people, there is no reason they can't stay with the Indonesian and Filipino staff. HAL certainly does not have a monopoly on staff from these countries. In fact, there are Indonesians and Filipinos on practically every cruise line.

[RevNeal]

I think that is unnecessarily pessimistic. Of course, there is always the risk that it will fail, but it does not seem terribly likely. Just look at all the sales like this that have succeeded.

 

Granted. However, despite my normally optimistic outlook, I sometimes find it helpful to be pessimistic about some things ... hence, if proven wrong, I'm happy. The reverse makes for many disappointments.

 

Why assume that they will move to staff from other countries?

 

Even if they do not literally keep the same people, there is no reason they can't stay with the Indonesian and Filipino staff. HAL certainly does not have a monopoly on staff from these countries. In fact, there are Indonesians and Filipinos on practically every cruise line.

 

Granted, and true. Frankly, I'm thinking in terms of HAL's existing logistics and already extant infrastructure which enables easy acquisitions of staff for Windstar through the HAL system, the SS Jakarta, etc. Without the HAL infrastructure for hiring, training, transporting, etc., it may well be cheaper and easier for Windstar -- a tiny Line -- to go elsewhere for staff. Or, perhaps they will do what some other lines -- like the Orient Line -- do ... take already trained HAL staff people who have either soured on HAL or who simply want to work elsewhere. Yes ... I don't KNOW that the staff will be replaced, and I don't KNOW that even if that happens Windstar will be ruined. Nevertheless, It cannot help but be changed if that happens ... and given the fickle nature of passengers' brand-loyalty, that may be a problem.

 

Okay, I'm finished.

 

[sARCASM] Clearly, I was an idiot for daring to think that this sale will be anything other than wonderful for everybody involved. I repent for ever voicing any shreds of doubt regarding the waves of unmitigated wisdom which have always flowed down from the hallowed halls of Seattle HQ and Carnival Nirvana. [/sARCASM]

[RevNeal]

I think you are making an excellent point about the possibility of Ambassador upgrading the experience and increasing the per diems. I just received a Majestic America catalog and, while I didn't check every price listed for every cruise on their several vessels, the prices that I did check were quite high. For example, a cruise--as a single--on the Delta Queen, per diem, is more expensive than a world cruise on the Amsterdam.:eek:

 

Yes, indeed. Have you ever priced a Windstar cruise? :)

They are EXPEN$IVE.

[hammybee]

Thank you for the compliment, Hammy. However, am I to gather that you believe me to have a big heart but no brain for business? Were you trying to be patronizing, or do you truly believe me to be utterly ignorant on matters of investment finance? :)

 

I think I've adequately articulated my reasons for fearing that the Windstar product will be harmed by this sale. Within the next couple of years we'll find out if I'm totally wrong. Again, I hope I am wrong; Windstar is a great product for those who want to take that kind of a cruise ... me among them ... and I hope it survives.

 

The scarecrow is my favorite charater in OZ because of his passion and empathy. And as we learned, he always had a brain :)

[dougnewmanatsea]

Granted. However, despite my normally optimistic outlook, I sometimes find it helpful to be pessimistic about some things ... hence, if proven wrong, I'm happy. The reverse makes for many disappointments.

Well, I see your point! It is sometimes good not to have very high expectations.

 

I wouldn't say I'm optimistic about this deal - I'm neither optimistic nor pessimistic. I'm neutral... I don't know enough about it to really have an opinion.

 

My only thought is that it may be good that Windstar will no longer be the "small fish in the big pond" of Carnival. Obviously, it is a much bigger deal to Ambassadors than it would be to Carnival. That could be good.

 

Otherwise, I will take the wait and see approach.

 

Without the HAL infrastructure for hiring, training, transporting, etc., it may well be cheaper and easier for Windstar -- a tiny Line -- to go elsewhere for staff.

It may be. Then again, for all we know, Windstar's current staff could be included in the deal. We really don't know.

 

But if they want Indonesian and Filipino staff, they can still get good ones without going through HAL. As I said, plenty of other cruise lines do. And there are many excellent crewing agencies that can source good staff; for example V.Ships or Columbia Ship Management. As an example, V.Ships does the crewing for Oceania, Regent, Silversea, Seabourn, Voyages of Discovery... Not too shabby!

 

Or, perhaps they will do what some other lines -- like the Orient Line -- do ... take already trained HAL staff people who have either soured on HAL or who simply want to work elsewhere.

Is Orient a repository for former HAL crew members?

 

(I know, I'm the Orient Host... I should know that!)

 

I always thought their crewing was done through their parent, NCL, but perhaps not. I know in the pre-NCL days they had almost exclusively Filipino crew, though I'm not sure if it's still that way.

 

[sARCASM] Clearly, I was an idiot for daring to think that this sale will be anything other than wonderful for everybody involved. I repent for ever voicing any shreds of doubt regarding the waves of unmitigated wisdom which have always flowed down from the hallowed halls of Seattle HQ and Carnival Nirvana. [/sARCASM]

Now then, I know you're being sarcastic, but I for one certainly have questioned Carnival's wisdom in the past and no doubt will in the future... And anyway, ultimately I'm sure all Carnival cares about is whether they get their money! What Ambassadors does with Windstar afterwards is Ambassadors' problem. That said, apparently HAL will continue managing the Windstar ships for the time being, and they are working together for an "orderly transition".

[hammybee]

What Ambassadors does with Windstar afterwards is Ambassadors' problem. ".

 

Another way is, what Ambassadors does with Windstar afterwards, is Ambassadors' opportunity.

 

- Cup usually half full

[dougnewmanatsea]

Yes, indeed. Have you ever priced a Windstar cruise? :)

They are EXPEN$IVE.

Don't get me wrong; Windstar sure isn't cheap, but have you priced a Majestic America cruise lately? Now that is what I call expensive!

 

Of course I have no idea if they could or even would like to get those kind of fare levels for Windstar, but Windstar, even if expensive by your standards or mine, cost peanuts compared to Majestic America's.

 

That said, it remains to be seen whether these kinds of fare levels will be the norm for Majestic America. The old Delta Queen Steamboat Company had very high "rack rates" but discounted deeply. Majestic America's more immediate predecessor was American West Steamboat Company, who actually got the high fares they asked.

 

Another way is, what Ambassadors does with Windstar afterwards, is Ambassadors' opportunity.

Well, of course it is! But what I meant is, if they were to screw it up (and I don't have any reason to believe they will), it would be Ambassadors' problem, not Carnival's.

 

Of course, if they do well with Windstar, I'm sure Carnival would be happy for them. It is just not a segment of the market in which Carnival has much interest. The same goes for Swan Hellenic which of course will shut down for good in April, and perhaps even Seabourn who I think they might sell if they were to get a good offer.